Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

I admit I have no idea about the wolves and I'm going to vote soon. I try to skim through my main suspects' posts to have an idea if they're wolvish or not, so I won't be maing the same error as yesterday.

I admit that Lhuna is very suspicious but I don't think this comment

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.

is extremely wolvish. Really, I'd rather consider one of a villager's bored to being suspicious about only because a stupid vote she regrets (?).

[Thinlómien]

I'm facing a choice between Lhuna and Naria. The first one has been acting suspiciously (though only one vote, no more, no less) and the second one hasn't said anything but nonsense. All the time I'm fearing we are after wrong people. As I'm fearing now about my own suspicions.

Naria has been speaking nonsense, rudely said. Her posts, if they have something to say, it's covered with humour. I don't find that very trustworthy. I do find her more suspicious than Lhuna. Lhuna at least has been speking sense at some points. I'll be watching her.

++Naria

EDIT: xposted with Celuien

[Cailín]

I only just realised when reading back that I completely forgot to analyse Gurthang. I apologise, Gurth, I did not mean to skip you.

As I am very tired and I cannot rely on waking early enough to vote before the deadline, since the Prophet stated it might be several hours early, I shall have to vote now...

I'm torn between voting Eonwe and Glirdan (I indicated before I seem to be starting a lynch-all-males campaign). Both of them scare me a little. But because Eonwe already has one, I suppose he shall get my vote tonight.

++EONWE

Here's to hoping we catch a wolf tonight. Sleep well, y'all.

[tar-ancalime]

++Eomer

Here's why:

tgwbs said:

That's just completely fabricated. There's no reasoning behind this.

If he didn't know, why not check? It's hardly difficult.

Plus the whole LMP vote was just odd.

Overall, it really does look like he's just trying to sow confusion and chaos. (tgwbs #223)

Right on, tgwbs! And there's more:

Eomer made a big fuss about how Anguirel's accusation of him was a joke, early in the Day, and was no different from his accusation of Kath. But that's patently false! Here is Anguirel's accusation of Eomer; it's a comment on the Eomer/lmp interplay and vote exchange:

You mortally insult me, churl. But I don't trust the harper who accuses ye one bit, so I shall continue to remain aloof, with the backing of my uncle the North Wind. (Ang #69)

Anguirel clearly sides with lmp (the "mortal insult" was lmp's reference to Ang's mental instability).

So he's obscuring Anguirel's suspicion of him; he spends a lot of time today asking why everyone is focusing on how bad Ang's death makes Kath look; he makes a solid case against Farael; then he goes and votes for Kath? I don't buy it.

Of course, it might all be part of another "master plan."

[tar-ancalime]

Some more non-vote-related thoughts based on today's postings:

"I don't eat sheep?" Well, neither do I but I don't feel the need to advertise it.

I believe that TGWBS has said that we have nine people who voted for Garin? (Formen #203)

Nah; tgwbs said that nine people received votes yesterday. Only five people voted for Garin. They were Garin, Eonwe, Celuien, Glirdan, Samwise.

Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon? Heheh. I bet the Ordo-Lover will vote for a female player tonight. So, starting with the girrrls: (Cailin #215)

This is tempting, but I think it's a little too early to do it on purpose unless we plan to continue methodically slaughtering the Y-chromosomes for a very long time--our village is very big, and it will take several Days of lynchings before we reach any kind of useful inequality. Also, if we do this, what's to stop the wolves from methodically killing off the females and destroying the numerical inequality? We should remember, too, that there's also guaranteed to be a female Lover--at this point we're still grasping at straws, and I think whomever we lynch is just as likely to be a Lover regardless of sex. But I'll file this idea away for later in the game.

I'll say now that there are a few individuals that have been so concise and well reasoned, and suspecting the same people I suspect, that I consider them to be (for the rest of toDay) above suspicion. They are: Eomer, Spawn, & tar-ancalime. (lmp #221)

Good heavens! Yesterday Garin approved of me; today it's lmp; this is unprecedented! I don't know what to do with myself! Evidently witchcraft agrees with me.

As for the talk of killing a male tonight I can see why this could help us weed out the lover wolf. How is this going to work if the other two wolves are female? (Valier #226)

We don't know this. The wolves could easily have been chosen randomly. All we know is that the Lovers are of opposite sexes.

I repeat. Samwise, Form, Lmp. You're all intelligent men. Are you telling us that it never occurred to any of you, until Lmp thought of it just now, that the wolf lover wouldn't tell all to his ord lover? (Lalaith #236)

Three cheers for Lalaith!

[Celuien]

Kath

Didn't say much yesterday.

Starts off today annoyed at being linked with a flip-flopping Farael and says she'll be back.

Linked to Farael by Eomer.

I'm not sure what to make of her. She hasn't really said enough to make me suspect or trust her. But the only case against her is made by the Anguirel accusation and Farael defense. I suppose she bears watching, but I'm uncomfortable voting for someone with such thready information.

I know I said I'd look at Glirdan and Farael next, but Eonwe just jumped out at me in the scroll review.

The vote for Valier today was truly bizzare, as was his edit comment to Gurthang (Gurthang, you are a luck hombre). I really don't like it, but I think that a wolf would need to be more careful than to call on randomness. Cara has a point when she says that we can't dismiss oddness too easily without giving wolves cover. Very strange, but my charge on strangeness yesterday didn't work out very well.

More later.

[SamwiseGamgee]

++ Lhunardawen

Her not getting us out of a double lynch situation yesterday and then trying to pass it off as though she hadn't slept a wink thinking about it just strikes me as very wolfish. There's been much discussion about it throughout the day, and my view hasn't changed since I raised it. In my view Lhuna is the most wolfish individual at the moment.

[Kath]

Why does everyone have to talk so much! Now I have about 2 pages to catch up on!

Oh, Celuien I said I'd be lurking if anyone wanted to question me about anything, I was doing a private analysis at the time. No one asked anything so I went once I'd done.

[Caranlondien]

Just in case this helps anyone, here's a list of the votes so far:

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)

Of course I don't mean this as a substitute for reading the posts; The votes are meaningless out of the context of the discussion. And please let me know if I messed up somewhere!

I'm going to re-read and try to get my bearings...

EDIT: Cross-posted with tar-ancalime; I added her vote

[Caranlondien]

Sorry if I end up making a bunch of short posts, but since people are voting a lot now, I want to get out my thoughts as they occur, so that I can get feedback.

My first thought is that, yes, Eonwe's vote is annoying and unhelpful, but does it really seem like the tactic of a wolf? It seems more to me like someone who's bored with the game, which is more likely from an ordo. Any thoughts?

[Caranlondien]

I'm not ready to vote for Eonwe just yet. I'd say there are far more suspicious people.

I've been re-reading Eomer's posts. He looks kind of helpful, but much of what he says isn't backed up very well. (Hmm, the last time I said that about someone, it was Anguirel...) But Eomer isn't just speaking nonsense, he's actually trying to pass off claims that don't really make any sense. I can't tell if this is intentional deception, or if he's just overzealous and moving too quickly from thought to thought.

So, Eomer is a definite suspect in my mind.

[Caranlondien]

Okay, I'm going by who has received the most votes so far, as those people seem to require our most urgent analysis. So, Lhuna:

Her cop-out on the double-lynching yesterDay is definitely weird. But I have to sympathize with her; If I were in the same situation, I would probably go for who I really thought was most suspicious, as it seems she did. As someone pointed out, she also knew that at least one other person was around and might take care of the situation. I'm certainly not letting her off the suspect list yet, though.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.

I don't get why people made such a big deal about this quote. It seems like the sort of thing anyone might say out of frustration, and it certainly isn't a "confession," as some have claimed.

So, I'm not really sure what to think about Lhuna. I tend to suspect Eomer more than her.

[Kath]

Right, let's see the voting so far (thanks whoever made this!)

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2 Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)

Wow, that's a quadruple tie situation! And if 10 have voted that leaves, erm, 10 left? Excuse my maths Oh well if that's right then there's plenty of time. However, I have to go soon and I would prefer not to leave it like this. Now I have skimmed the whole thread but only read properly up to post 205 so if there are discrepancies in what I say then that is why.

Eonwe and Naria have been extremely quiet, and what they have said has been both unhelpful and unreasoned. E.g. Eonwe's vote, which was purely random. Now that's acceptable on Day 1 but after all those posts toDay? He should have been able to form some suspicions.

Glirdan seemed to come under some fire due to his change in posting style, but everyone changes how they play every now and then and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Oh yes, Valier, I wondered if you could explain this so I understand it:

ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm

Until I get that I have some suspicion over you for being plain confusing!

Eomer - well, the guy seems to want me dead which gives me a tendency to suspect him! But no, aside from that, while some posts are useful and logical and well thought out, some seem just . . . not. Someone said he was overly fierce but I don't see that, he just isn't consistently well reasoned. Still, that's hardly a crime so the benefit of the doubt will extend to him for toDay.

Farael - ah Farael. Apparently my partner in crime! Though he now suspects me himself. Apart from that flip flop I can see nothing in his posts to indicate anything wolvish.

Lhuna - now I can see the points against her. The refusal to stop a double lynch does look bad, and I'm hesitant to give her the benefit of the doubt over it. The constant apologies are a little grating it's true. I don't know though, while it looks suspicious I think it looks almost too suspicious. You'd think a wolf would realise what it looked like and concoct something to get themselves out of it. So, for toDay, I think I will consider Lhuna a misguided innocent.

Whilst writing this I was thinking about the Lovers. People have been suggesting that Nilp chose certain people to be them for amusement or some other reason and I think that's worth looking at. Unfortunately that leads me straight to spawn, who I wish to think of as entirely innocent for now, or it will throw the whole feel of this village out of whack for me! So I vaguely assumed for a moment that there was no female Lover (don't ask ) and concentrated on the male one. Now I come again to Eomer, doesn't that seem like a perfect partnership to you? But I've just said I consider him mostly innocent! My brain really hurts toDay.

So, as I don't want to leave this as a quadruple lynch

++EONWE

Because of that vote that had absolutely no reasoning and so really is unacceptable for Day 2. Also, there is a tendency to concentrate on the loud members of a village because of course there is more from them to analyse, but this does allow the quiet ones to slip under the radar quite often. I think it is a good idea to force some of these to talk.

[Lhunardawen]

I'm back.

Just please give me some time to re-read the scroll. It's long, but hey! I'm quite used to it. Timezones, y'know.