Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 03-17-2006, 04:59 PM

Haha! Glirdan, it does indeed put you under suspicion.

BUT WAIT!

No-one even brought it up at the start of the day. It was all about how bad it looks for Kath.

I would have thought that the wolves would have jumped on this opportunity to get at poor innocent Glirdan.

And they haven't (because I'm not a wolf).

So, why not?

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 03-17-2006, 05:07 PM

Lalaith speaking more and more sense. Funny how your opinion of people changes through the day.

Her vote for Eonwe is justified, because he's apparently trying to leave no trail. That could be said for others.

The wolves won't kill TGWBS and we're going to lynch him before the end anyway. We might as well kill him now. And I admit that it's his vote for me that really got me thinking this way.

But despite his charade, I can read some sense in his posts. Do others think this way?

Farael, Kath...

Gah! I have to vote now. Mmmm....one moment please.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 03-17-2006, 05:11 PM

Glirdan, in a wolf-team of 4, you are expendable. Like it or not. Anguirel might have been the Seer and he might have nabbed you. But perhaps your wolves would have picked the person who voted for you first. I think Anguirel was not the first. That counts in your favour.

++KATH

Good night, lovelies!

SamwiseGamgee · 03-17-2006, 05:13 PM

Just so we all know, night is set to fall somewhat early, so don't be caught out by not casting thy mighty vote!

Celuien · 03-17-2006, 09:51 PM

Alas, sleep draws on my weary eyelids. I'm afraid I must vote.

++SAMWISE

who currently seems more suspicious to me than the others who have received votes so far. His village polling seems stranger and stranger the more I think about it.

For the record, my second choice would be Eonwe, although I think he's a bit too obviously fishy to be a wolf. However, if he continues odd tomorrow, I may vote for him.

And lmp makes an interesting point about Lalaith. Definitely bears watching.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lmp

You have been triple posting partly because I've been busy analyzing and preparing one post. Here goes.

I suppose I should try to think everything through more before clicking 'submit.' My brain is so disorganized just now. Must be the birthday cake.

Gurthang · 03-19-2006, 01:59 PM

Wow, so much to read through. I'm going to (attempt to) make this short, since I doubt I'm the only one that's awed by the sheer amount of talk. I'll just post thoughts as they pop into my head while I read.

First, Valier sent a hidden message awhile back. This actually makes me think she is innocent. It makes no sense for a wolf to do it, especially given that they can PM during the Day. A hidden message only draws unwanted attention. I think she was just having some fun seeing who would find it.

Lhuna: Someone(I think Spawn?) brought up some good points about her, and others have voiced similar suspicion. One thing I think is in her favor is actually what is causing suspicion: that she would not break the tie yesterday. It is a guarantee of being suspected, as she is being, and for a wolf it is bad strategy. If you break a tie, one of the two dies, then the next Day the other one is likely to be suspected a lot. If both are lynched, the village begins the next Day fresh, with no stale near lynchees. In short, breaking a tie keeps the village in confusion for another Day, whereas leaving a tie kills both but saves the village time. A wolf would typically break a tie.

LMP is making sense to me, and I like his analysis. Although I should point out that (in post #272) he said Lalaith discredited looking at pairs when she had brought up the idea just 7 posts earlier. From what I see, it looks like she states dislike for the idea in both posts. That's not a good mark for him, and that vote still lingers on my mind. Watching him.

As I said (unfortunately before I realised that Day had ended), I'll be also be watching Farael and Glirdan, and maybe Cailín.

Okay, I finished reading through the second Day, so I'll go ahead and post my thoughts now. I'll be back after reading toDay.

P.S. Late response, I know, but I had noticed that you skipped me Cailín, and I was rather offended, but I do accept your apology.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 03-19-2006, 02:04 PM

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

Farael · 03-19-2006, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers.

That's presposterous, TGWBS's plan does not increase the villager's odds... it decreases them!! Sure, the mathematical odds increase, but this is not a game of math, as even after TGWBS's plan is done and all the males are dead, we'd have to revert back to analysis.

This game is won and lost by proper analysis. I offered my analysis and so far no-one has commented upon it properly. TGWBS's offers statistics and I say "they will be our doom". Why? because we will still need analysis yet once we commit to statistics we will loose the groundwork from which analysis is born. Namely, discussion. There will be no real discussion involving the female wolves, only their male counterparts.... thus the females will hide and then it will be too late for analysis. Eomer, your support of TGWBS but mostly your attack on those who try to show why his plan is misguided really worries me.

Valier · 03-19-2006, 02:21 PM

I for one do not think we should kill just the men. Women can be very crafty when backed into a corner remember...I do agree in a double lynch though.

SamwiseGamgee · 03-17-2006, 05:08 PM

Glirdan, in post #235 you say that Gurthang said we should be taking a closer look at me, but it was Form in #213. I add this to Eomer's question.

Lalaith, I'll admit that the thought hadn't occurred to me.

Intelligent, but not overly so!

SamwiseGamgee · 03-17-2006, 05:10 PM

Sorry, just as explanation: I raise Glirdan's error simply because I'm a very suspicious guy, and I can't see why he'd make that mistake.

Glirdan · 03-17-2006, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Glirdan, in post #235 you say that Gurthang said we should be taking a closer look at me, but it was Form in #213. I add this to Eomer's question.(Samwise)

Simple: I wan't paying attention (not that that's someting new

). I just went back and yes, I realise now that it was Formendacil. I'll go correct that.

Quote:

So, why not?(Eomer)

So why not what?? Why not attack Ang? Because, I had enough suspicion is it was yesterDay and I was going to start off toDay in pretty rough shape as well: Garin being innocent and Ang's vote for me. Yes it's true that I didn't get it right at the start (and I must say that I'm quite surprised at that) but it was only a matter of time until it happened and would you look at that! Do you really think I'm that stupid??

Anyway, I must vote yet I'm unsure whom to vote for... I'll be back in a few minutes with it...

03-17-2006, 04:59 PM	#1
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Haha! Glirdan, it does indeed put you under suspicion. BUT WAIT! No-one even brought it up at the start of the day. It was all about how bad it looks for Kath. I would have thought that the wolves would have jumped on this opportunity to get at poor innocent Glirdan. And they haven't (because I'm not a wolf). So, why not? __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

03-17-2006, 05:11 PM	#3
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Glirdan, in a wolf-team of 4, you are expendable. Like it or not. Anguirel might have been the Seer and he might have nabbed you. But perhaps your wolves would have picked the person who voted for you first. I think Anguirel was not the first. That counts in your favour. ++KATH Good night, lovelies! __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

03-17-2006, 05:13 PM	#4
SamwiseGamgee Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg Posts: 378	Important Just so we all know, night is set to fall somewhat early, so don't be caught out by not casting thy mighty vote! __________________ -- Well, I'm back.

03-19-2006, 01:59 PM	#6
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Wow, so much to read through. I'm going to (attempt to) make this short, since I doubt I'm the only one that's awed by the sheer amount of talk. I'll just post thoughts as they pop into my head while I read. First, Valier sent a hidden message awhile back. This actually makes me think she is innocent. It makes no sense for a wolf to do it, especially given that they can PM during the Day. A hidden message only draws unwanted attention. I think she was just having some fun seeing who would find it. Lhuna: Someone(I think Spawn?) brought up some good points about her, and others have voiced similar suspicion. One thing I think is in her favor is actually what is causing suspicion: that she would not break the tie yesterday. It is a guarantee of being suspected, as she is being, and for a wolf it is bad strategy. If you break a tie, one of the two dies, then the next Day the other one is likely to be suspected a lot. If both are lynched, the village begins the next Day fresh, with no stale near lynchees. In short, breaking a tie keeps the village in confusion for another Day, whereas leaving a tie kills both but saves the village time. A wolf would typically break a tie. LMP is making sense to me, and I like his analysis. Although I should point out that (in post #272) he said Lalaith discredited looking at pairs when she had brought up the idea just 7 posts earlier. From what I see, it looks like she states dislike for the idea in both posts. That's not a good mark for him, and that vote still lingers on my mind. Watching him. As I said (unfortunately before I realised that Day had ended), I'll be also be watching Farael and Glirdan, and maybe Cailín. Okay, I finished reading through the second Day, so I'll go ahead and post my thoughts now. I'll be back after reading toDay. P.S. Late response, I know, but I had noticed that you skipped me Cailín, and I was rather offended, but I do accept your apology. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

03-19-2006, 02:04 PM	#7
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	TGWBS is not saying that the plan will work; he's saying that it gives the village a better chance. And I do agree with him. Those who would doubt the merits of double-lynchings (male & female) look very suspicious to me. They only increase the villagers' chances of winning. Only the wolves could be scared of the numbers. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

03-17-2006, 05:07 PM	#2
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Lalaith speaking more and more sense. Funny how your opinion of people changes through the day. Her vote for Eonwe is justified, because he's apparently trying to leave no trail. That could be said for others. The wolves won't kill TGWBS and we're going to lynch him before the end anyway. We might as well kill him now. And I admit that it's his vote for me that really got me thinking this way. But despite his charade, I can read some sense in his posts. Do others think this way? Farael, Kath... Gah! I have to vote now. Mmmm....one moment please. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

03-19-2006, 02:21 PM	#9
Valier Twisted Taleswapper Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: somewhere between sanity and insanity Posts: 1,706	I for one do not think we should kill just the men. Women can be very crafty when backed into a corner remember...I do agree in a double lynch though. __________________ grand return?........

03-17-2006, 05:08 PM	#10
SamwiseGamgee Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg Posts: 378	Glirdan, in post #235 you say that Gurthang said we should be taking a closer look at me, but it was Form in #213. I add this to Eomer's question. Lalaith, I'll admit that the thought hadn't occurred to me. Intelligent, but not overly so! __________________ -- Well, I'm back.

03-17-2006, 05:10 PM	#11
SamwiseGamgee Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg Posts: 378	Sorry, just as explanation: I raise Glirdan's error simply because I'm a very suspicious guy, and I can't see why he'd make that mistake. __________________ -- Well, I'm back.

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