Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Valier

ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm

I'm not particularly suspecting you - before now. I just pointed out that we shouldn't let silent ones slip unnoticed. My "suspicions" (if you want to call them so) were not based on your Glirdan-vote. If you were under that impression, I understand my vote seems strange. Otherwise, I don't. I voted Glirdy because after one reading, there was something in his posting that didn't sit right with me. It was just a hunch. Surprisingly, I got a chance to get online after my vote (which I had not presumed) and was able to read through his posts and didn't find anything actually suspicious and believed him innocent. That's why I added later a wish for people not to follow my example.
What I don't understand is why are you drawing a connection of my brief mentioning of silent ones (including you) in suspicious light and Ang's death. Care to elaborate yourself?

One thing we see here in this Valier's post is a person being jumpy. I think she over-reacts a small suspicion. That's all I say about her (unless I'm mistaken):

I think we should pay attention to Caralondien, Naria and Valier. Just because they will otherwise just go unnoticed. ... I just fear that (a) silent wolf/wolves will slip unnoticed when loud villagers/wolves/lovers/gifteds hang each other.

Not really an accusation but there she is counter-attacking me ragingly. A jumpy wolf with bad nerves?

[Thinlómien]

Ah! And it's so interesting to find out that Valier doesn't eat sheep. Maybe she prefers humans? :P

I'm a bit worried about spawn. Why, you might ask. I agree that she's been sensible and convincing. And that's the problem with her. I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well. If she's a wolf or a lover, we're in a big bad trouble, if the game continues like this concerning suspicions towards her.

[Formendacil]

Okay, first off... let me say:

"I told you so!"

No, I did. I said that Garin was playing perfectly to form, and was an Ordo. You didn't believe me, ergo, he is dead.

Anyway, moving on from this moment of ego to the death of Anguirel, I find it a heartening choice on the part of wolves. Not to dishonour Anguirel's memory or anything, but the fact that the wolves only got an Ordo last night is encouraging. Too many of these games end in a Wolvish victory because the Seer died right away.

That said, I'm not sure that analysis of Anguirel yesterday will help us a lot. Personally, I'm not the best analyser, so maybe I'm not the one who should be making this judgement, but it didn't seem to me that Anguirel left a lot of hardcore suspicions- unless one counts the Hedgehog King.

As for looking at yesterday's votes, I'm interested to see what people come up with, but I'd be hesitant about using them to convict people. I believe that TGWBS has said that we have nine people who voted for Garin? If so, then that's half the village. We could have all four Werewolves hiding in there, and still have a greater chance of taking out one of the Village Team.

The point has also been made already (my apologies, I forget by whom) that the wolves may very well have not been around to vote at the end of the day, it being a Day 1.

Personally, I'm hesitant to accuse anyone based on the time of their vote. Lhuna, for example, has been suspected of wolvery in every game she's played (albeit incorrectly each time), but because of the timezones, she's typically an early voter. In this game, because of advantageous timezones, she's naturally going to be voting near the end.

Oh, and speaking of Lhuna, I find the idea of her and me being the Lovers to be... amusing. I wouldn't have put it past Nilp to match the two of us up...

I'll be back in an hour or two with more thoughts...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, what are you talking about? No-one's saying so-and-so can't be a wolf. We're trying to determine likely wolf behaviour! We have to place a certain degree of trust in some people. If someone has a good voting record and speaks a lot of sense, and is helpful in tracking wolves, then it speaks in their favour somewhat.

Of course they could still be a wolf, but we are meant to weigh up evidence. If a wolf is not likely to take a certain course of action then it is likely that someone taking said course is not a wolf.

Likely, not definitely. We can't suspect everyone equally.

Anyway, another thought. Someone pointed out (with good reason) that the wolves can afford to lose one of their number in order to take out the Seer. So if Glirdan is a wolf then it's entirely feasible for the wolf-team to kill Anguirel (who voted for Glirdan) and let Glirdan fend for himself.

So, Glirdan....you're a wolf.

Farael, Kath and Lalaith all make fair defensive points. I'm still watching them.

[Lalaith]

My dear old harp-plucker. In post 162, you said I was odd and promised to tell why later. Then in post 176, you said I was very suspicious and you'd explain why later. I was getting all excited!
But this, I agree with.

We have to have suspects...

...so I bear you no ill will. It's all early days and everyone is clutching at straws. I know I am.

I need to vote in a couple of hours, I hope I can get some time to read through everything...I have to go by the theory that Ang said something of significance, because that's the only theory we have right now to narrow down the list of suspects.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

But I still say we need to figure out what is going on between Eomer and LMP before anything else.

Sorry, I have been away stone-cutting all Day so far. I took one half hour rest which I spent reading as far as I could in the Daily Chisel of goings on here. Now to answer your (and others') question about my half of the "LMP/Eomer" thing.

As you may recall, the only information of note that stood out to me were the early post by Lhuna and the mysterious defense of her by Eomer, and I requested further information from both of them. Lhuna finally answered today. Eomer's answer was more mystery. Then, when he voted for me, he claimed open-ended reasoning that could have been interpreted in at least three different ways besides the way he finally told us toDay that he really meant. He said that he is expendable, but I could see Eomer in any role saying that.

I wanted to keep from spreading the nominee list any further than 6. When I voted, there were already 6 nominees. Of those who had already received votes, only Eomer seemed remotely suspicious to me. Lhuna also looked suspicious, since her 'wise advice' to us all not to spread the voting too thin was something that any reasonably experienced player knows already, and her having said it made her look helpful while not really being helpful.

In addition, it was a not unreasonable hypothesis that Lhuna & Eomer are the Lovers. His bold, even blatant, defense of her in his very first post of the game, is the kind of thing I would not put past Eomer. So I was looking at those two as my primary candidates. Lhuna had no votes and the stronger case as such looked to go with Eomer. Thus, my vote. That he had voted for me did play a small factor, but not as large as it seems at first glance.

Now I must go back to reading to try to catch up; currently I'm at about page 4 of the Daily Chisel, which has published so far toDay some 6 pages. Back with more soon....

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer

So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused. Just one more thing about this:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, he's not a Seer, so it seems like a set-up.

So, if Anguirel had been a Seer, it wouldn't have been a set-up and we'd be all questioning Kath with good reasons? The fact that Anguirel was an ordinary villager instead of a Seer doesn't chance the wolves' motives to kill him. They didn't know who he was.

I must say, though, that defending Garin so strongly hinted to Anguirel's possible Seerishness more than mentioning Kath. I just wonder the talk of the 'frame-up'.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Lalaith, if wolf-Kath had killed Anguirel then it would not look obvious, considering that Anguirel had accused me in like manner and actually voted for Glirdan. Why should it lead back to Kath at all? Have you mentioned how it seriously leads back to me or Glirdan?

And that's a good point, too.

I need to vote soon. I shall now go to do some serious rereading...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lalaith, I have done you a disservice. I promise you that something in your posts felt a bit worrying to me earlier today; but I have nothing of much substance to back it up.

So you're not 'extremely wolvish' anymore.

Think of the votes yesterday. Anguirel got some, so did Eomer and LMP and Glirdan and TGWBS plus.....? Don't know off the top of my head.

But...

Either all the votes were wrong, or more than one was right. Right? So maybe Glirdan and LMP and TGWBS and Eomer are the 4 wolves and they had to pick one of their Seer candidates who voted for one of them (Anguirel voted for Glirdan)...

...or...

...no-one cast a vote for a wolf, and the wolves guessed that Anguirel was a Seer based on his defence of Garin.

In which case (perhaps) the people who voted in a certain way are completely off. Some people are convinced by others' arguments; but supposed random votes or votes based on very loose reasoning may tell us more. I'm not talking about obviously random votes or that kind of stuff.

But votes like 'So-and-so feels a bit strange to me. Can't explain'

If these picked out a wolf, then the wolves would kill whoever cast the vote.

EXAMPLE: I voted for LMP pretty randomly, but I worded it in such a way that everyone thought there was something sinister or clever about it. If LMP were a wolf then he might have wanted to kill me for it. But I'm still here.

Total speculation. But I think that, out of the people who garnered votes yesterday, either none is a wolf, or more than one is.

That would be (still surviving) LMP, TGWBS, Eomer, Glirdan and.....? Who've I missed? I'll edit with the answer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Farael and Lalaith also got votes. If I ever need to remind myself why that's important then I'll figure it out. Ooh, Cailín votes for Lalaith. I'll keep that in mind seeing how I mentioned their behaviour earlier today. Wolf-on-wolf early vote? You just never know.

Anyway, it would be utter madness for the Lovers to hint. What could they possibly benefit? And LMP, my alleged strong defence of Lhuna (entirely because she's my little sister) was somewhat balanced by my suggestion that probability dictates that she will be a wolf one of these days. I also put her on my suspicion list today.

Listen to the wise words of Spawn, she knows all about set-ups and how those who design them get what's coming to them in the end.

[Valier]

Thin I was not counteracting you ragingly! I said I would look at who voted for Glirdan after I did. I was surprised to see you had voted for him as well. I think we tend to agree on most points( except my innocence) and this time you probably got the same feeling of weirdness about Glirdan. I just don't see why you always think me to be a wolf. No offence to Glirdan, but in most games he is strange and in this one he has a change of heart and talks more using big words to garnish his posts. Eonwe's vote is unacceptable! Not because it is for me, but Eonwe is always lacking in posts and reason, which makes it hard to tell when he is a wolf. After I just mentioned his weirdness he very randomly votes for me. I can't help think he is a wolf that tends to panic.

Thin so I see you found my subliminal message! I was simply implying that I don't eat any meat. I am way to sweet for that! *smiles sweetly* I am strictly a herbivor. I thought you might see that and believe me THIS time of my innocence.

[Lalaith]

I think this talk of frame-ups, alleged or otherwise, is just smoke and red herrings.
Earlier on today, I said:

I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now

I will be basing my vote at least partly on this premise.

the wolves guessed that Anguirel was a Seer based on his defence of Garin. In which case (perhaps) the people who voted in a certain way are completely off

Unfortunately I think this is true, which doesn't give me as much guidance as I'd like.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lhuna

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.

Is this a confession - that you're a wolf whatever you do, eh? You know, as far as I know there hasn't been much suspicion of Samwise who 'climbed a Garin bandwagon'. That's because he saved us from a possible death of two innocents.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.


Since post #149 (by Samwise) other people have made good points of Lhuna. When I add them to my case (#164), I find you the most wolvish villager toDay.

++Lhunardawen

Originally Posted by Eomer

Listen to the wise words of Spawn, she knows all about set-ups and how those who design them get what's coming to them in the end.

Thanks.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Is this a confession - that you're a wolf whatever you do, eh? You know, as far as I know there hasn't been much suspicion of Samwise who 'climbed a Garin bandwagon'. That's because he saved us from a possible death of two innocents.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.

It does look bad for Lhuna, I'll grant, but I wonder if we ought to maybe be taking a closer peek at Samwise? I don't seriously suspect him, but the possibility is there that, in defending Garin, in believing him innocent, he was acting on Wolfish knowledge... After all, who, in all this village, knows who all are Wolve and who are Not? Just the wolves.

That said, I don't seriously harbour doubts about Samwise. But it is something that we shouldn't completely forget, either.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Anyway, it would be utter madness for the Lovers to hint. What could they possibly benefit?

I agree with you entirely, and if you or any of our experienced, greatly intelligent players is the Lover, then I would say that hints are completely unlikely.

That said, human nature is such that if one of more foolhardy, less-experienced players was a Lover, it's entirely possible that they could deliberately hint, not thinking through the situation as best they might.

So I'd keep an eye out for Loverly Pairs anyway... They won't be casting suspicion on each other (except as a decoy), and one of them may possibly let something slip.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now

I agree. I think we've been wasting time toDay... but let's not argue about whether we've been wasting time, because that will waste time, too

Okay, I think LMP is looking suspicious. His attack on Eomer and Lhuna as the lovers has come across pretty strong. But I'm not inclined to think their behavior suggests them as lovers. Despite what I said yesterDay about keeping our eyes open for both wolves and lovers, I think that evidence for lovers will be harder to collect. I doubt that the lovers would want to do anything to connect themselves with one another, and they would at least hide their defenses of each other within larger lists of suspected/not suspected.

I'm also somewhat skeptical about TGWBS. Much as he may idolize our dear prophet, his continuous declaration that he is a wolf has so far worked. Yes, he did come close to being lynched yesterDay. But he wasn't. I just think we should keep our eyes on him, and not definitively rule him out.

And finally,

Originally Posted by Thinlomien

I'm a bit worried about spawn. Why, you might ask. I agree that she's been sensible and convincing. And that's the problem with her. I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well. If she's a wolf or a lover, we're in a big bad trouble, if the game continues like this concerning suspicions towards her.

I agree. Helpfulness doesn't rule someone out as a possible wolf.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Formendacil

[Cailín]

The sheer size of this village makes it almost impossible for one with limited time available to keep up, and I think most of us are very eager to simply vote for the loudest. This makes it extremely easy for quiet, subtle wolves to hide. However, I fear nothing can be done about it right now – except we need to lynch some people, fast. *that sounds rather…bloodthirsty*

I shall just look into the people drawing attention for now. Glirdan previously analysed the very quiet, and found little to nothing. Voting records will tell us more soon, I hope.

As for speculating why Anguirel got lynched, it was probably more of a why not? question, though I cannot get rid of the feeling that the wolves thought to have caught a Seer.

Anyone else in favour of lynching another guy tonight? Rid the wolves of the male population and increase our chances of finding the Lover soon? Heheh. I bet the Ordo-Lover will vote for a female player tonight. So, starting with the girrrls:

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant

I cannot play a game without suspecting her. However, she has made a great deal of sense. To answer your question, Spawn:

So, if Anguirel had been a Seer, it wouldn't have been a set-up and we'd be all questioning Kath with good reasons? The fact that Anguirel was an ordinary villager instead of a Seer doesn't chance the wolves' motives to kill him. They didn't know who he was.

No. As I said before, Kath could not possibly be a wolf thinking the Seer found her. Ang didn’t pursue her further, did he? He would have had he been a suicidal Seer. I think it’s the Seer hints, combined with the righteous defence of Garin that got them thinking. I’m merely speculating, however. Like you, I’m trying to make sense of it all.

Kath

Kath has over the past few games specialised in the act of being suspicious, so I tend to be lenient. Her vote for Eomer resembles… something, which makes me immediately alert. On the other hand, Eomer has history against him. Since it is Day 1, the vote doesn’t look too weird.

There’s been little input from Kath toDay. I cannot suspect her on so little evidence. However, I shall be watching her closely.

Lhunardawen

Cases against Lhuna have been made a lot toDay already. I sympathise with most arguments, however, I think she is blamed too much for leaving the tie. She knew Dancing Spawn was still around, as were a few others. It’s hard to believe she meant to orchestrate a double lynch. Her vote was relatively safe, and little explained, but not extraordinary. Maybe I am misled, but Lhuna does not seem the most wolvish. Probably she is merely adjusting from not coping with timezone diseases.

Lalaith

Well, on first sight Lalaith strikes me as an ordinary. I voted for her yesterDay… admittedly, because I wished to cast my vote for someone 1) who had been around already 2) who would certainly be around later 3) by whose reaction I could somehow maybe find something on them, while I normally would just allow her to slip beneath the radar. Of course, she handled the situation perfectly, as may be expected from an experienced player. Her vote for TGWBS seems not so unreasoned as Lhuna would have it appear. TGWBS would be just the sort of person trying to get away with saying “I’m a wolf” as much as possible, just to be able to gloat later on.

Her posts toDay are rather general, helpful in a non-commiting way. She seems a typical ordinary. I don’t suspect her too much.

Thinlomien

Well, Lommy appears on the list because she’s such a genuinely nice girl. Ho-hum. She spent the first day agreeing with others… She seems to consider all sides of the argument, which is a very Dutch and unproductive way to go about things. Then suddenly she follows Anguirel, voting Glirdan whom she did not suspect before. Later on, she states she made a wrong decision. Did she try to align herself with an innocent? Convenient that Ang died last night, then. This is odd though. And really very nice, too.

Today she considers Lhuna’s case, and points our attention towards the silent ones. She further says nothing particularly interesting, except for a slight concern she might be trusting Spawn too much (and don’t we all?). I’m a bit worried about you, Thin.

The other girls / women did not make close examining for various reasons. Tar-ancalime I find, makes good sense and contributes to the discussion. Celuien I need around for therapeutical reasons. Besides, she has not done anything truly suspicious – her vote for Garin is incriminating, but hardly wolvish. I’m still undecided about newcomer Caranlondien and Valier is her usual annoying self. Naria has said too little. As always.

[Formendacil]

Lot's of interesting thoughts there, Cailín. Your remarks about Thinlómien quoted just below gave me a thought:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, Lommy appears on the list because she’s such a genuinely nice girl. Ho-hum. She spent the first day agreeing with others… She seems to consider all sides of the argument, which is a very Dutch and unproductive way to go about things. Then suddenly she follows Anguirel, voting Glirdan whom she did not suspect before. Later on, she states she made a wrong decision. Did she try to align herself with an innocent? Convenient that Ang died last night, then. This is odd though. And really very nice, too.

Today she considers Lhuna’s case, and points our attention towards the silent ones. She further says nothing particularly interesting, except for a slight concern she might be trusting Spawn too much (and don’t we all?). I’m a bit worried about you, Thin.

There was a wolf once, back in a village that some of you may remember (Amanaduial, in my game, XVI), who was new at the game, and tried to take a very balanced view of things, looking at all sides of the situation, and consequently being accused of flip-flopping, and ultimately got lynched.

Is it possible that we have a similar case here? I'm inclined to think not, since Thinlómien has a few games of experience under her belt from the Junior string of games. However, she also claims that is her normal playing style. If so, it would be excellent cover for a Werewolf. Alas, I have not played with her, and I've barely dipped my toes into the games I've not played, so I do not know if she's playing to her normal standard or not...

On to another topic:

The interesting thought occured to me that the three main candidates up for lynching last night were male: Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Is it possible, that in the flurry of tying/tie-breaking votes there at the end that one of our female players was trying to save- or did save- her lover?

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Valier is her usual annoying self.

I totally take offence to this! Saying I'm strange or weird ok...but ANNOYING! I shall go pout now! *POUTS*

[Cailín]

So, the men.

Littlemanpoet

Well, he has always been a bit on the defensive side, I daresay. Now that I see Eomer was indeed just being random, I have little reason to suspect him. Other than that he has said little enough, he does not come across as a wolvish fiend.

The guy who be short

I discussed him briefly earlier. His behaviour seems… rather odd. Of course, he was bound to vote for himself as a Nilp-fan, however, he has not yet dropped the act. As I said before, TGWBS the wolf would possibly be tempted to pull off such a mega-bluff. Since he made much sense toDay, aside from claiming he’s a wolf every 2 seconds, I shall direct my attention elsewhere.

Farael

An interesting player, Farael. He suspects Kath, he is supposed to be mentally afflicted, and yet manages to post coherently most of the time. I was initially very suspicious of him because he did not act out his profession and I am still wary. I’m sure Nilp would have killed himself even had we all voted for ourselves. What he says is not unreasonable, though.

Glirdan

Has bravely analysed the quiet villagers. This of course allows him to post without really voicing his own thoughts. A safe way out, were he fanged and hairy. He was in quite a dangerous spot for a while, yesterDay, and particularly because of Anguirel. His posting does seem different, as has been remarked upon before. Whether this is at his fellow wolves insistance or because he is a bored ordo trying a new style, I do not know. I am hesitant to believe Glirdan is the Lover, though.

Formendacil

Is clearly not Lhuna’s ‘secret’ Lover. Everyone knows, right? Aside from that, Formendacil seems no different than normal. Based on the same method he uses to determine our guilt, I’d say he’s guiltless. However, I am not certain.

Eonwe

Eonwe is getting on my nerves too. His vote seems so… utterly random. I would think – were he guilty – he’d be more into it, though.

I have not included detailed analysis of Eomer and SamwiseGamgee. I’d lie if I said I didn’t suspect Eomer, but what else is new? He confuses me too much to make a case against him, though. SamwiseGamgee I think is an innocent right now. I’m not sure, but he has said nothing really alarming.

I totally take offence to this! Saying I'm strange or weird ok...but ANNOYING! I shall go pout now! *POUTS*

Sorry Valier. It's not a crime to be annoying.

Formendacil - your thoughts about Thinlomien are similar to mine. However, and I hope you do not take offence, I would prefer to vote for one of my male suspects.

[littlemanpoet]

Up to #213 now....

Originally Posted by Formendacil

After all, who, in all this village, knows who all are Wolve and who are Not? Just the wolves.

Actually, there's a strong possibility that the Ordo-Lover also knows the identity of all 4 werewolves, told so by the Werewolf-Lover. Worth keeping in mind, I dare say.

[Naria]

Ok, I'm here--busy day,sorry. Looks like it's been a busy Day here as well. I will have to go back and read what everyone has said and try to come up with something. No promises(in regards to lots of substance)with such a big village and this early, but I will try.

[littlemanpoet]

Up to #214....

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Okay, I think LMP is looking suspicious. His attack on Eomer and Lhuna as the lovers has come across pretty strong.

Ahem. Please note that I was asked for an explanation of my Day 1 vote, and gave it. That explanation is not best read as an attack upon Lhuna and Eomer as Lovers, but as my rationale for yesterDay's vote.

I'll say now that there are a few individuals that have been so concise and well reasoned, and suspecting the same people I suspect, that I consider them to be (for the rest of toDay) above suspicion. They are: Eomer, Spawn, & tar-ancalime.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Up to #213 now....

Actually, there's a strong possibility that the Ordo-Lover also knows the identity of all 4 werewolves, told so by the Werewolf-Lover. Worth keeping in mind, I dare say.

That's a really interesting thought...

Are they allowed to do that?

More pertinently, is there any way we could hope for the village to extract those names from the Villager Lover?

Originally Posted by Cailín

Formendacil - your thoughts about Thinlomien are similar to mine. However, and I hope you do not take offence, I would prefer to vote for one of my male suspects.

Offence? Why should I take offence??? As long as I'm not that candidate, all is good.

I'm also not convinced by the Thinlómien case just yet. It's interesting, but there's not enough to go by just yet.

[the guy who be short]

So many ideas floating around...

Well, first thing's first, I agree that we should lynch a male. We increase our chances of grabbing the lover and killing two birds with one blunt rocky thing.

All my suspects today seem to be male anyway.

I have to say, I suspect Eomer quite a bit at the moment. He's simply not doing his research and being a bit too random for my liking.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Total speculation. But I think that, out of the people who garnered votes yesterday, either none is a wolf, or more than one is.

That's just completely fabricated. There's no reasoning behind this.

Think of the votes yesterday. Anguirel got some, so did Eomer and LMP and Glirdan and TGWBS plus.....? Don't know off the top of my head.

If he didn't know, why not check? It's hardly difficult.

Plus the whole LMP vote was just odd.

Overall, it really does look like he's just trying to sow confusion and chaos.


Gurthang still appears suspicious to me, as does Farael. A self vote would hardly have ended the world at that time.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Formy

Are they allowed to do that?

Originally Posted by The Mod God

'You shall have two Lovers in this village, one from the ranks of the villagers, and one from the Werewolves. They shall PM each other but once during the DAY and once during the NIGHT, for their love is a secret love, and a deadly one. The Lovers will die together--if one is lynched, or killed by the Werewolves, or struck dead by the Mod God, the other shall join him in the gloom of underworld. They shall win if they are left together with but one person, be the survivor innocent or guilty.

I see no restriction as to content in this "commandment", so apparently, "yes".

[Naria]

I see no restriction as to content in this "commandment", so apparently, "yes".

I never would have thought that they could do this. It makes matters worse, does it not? With the five of them having the ordo list. Or maybe it should, in theory, make our jobs a little easier--finding slip ups from them. Aaargh!! Thanks Lmp if my head wasn't trapped in a cloud of confusion before, it sure is now.

I'll be back soon.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Sorry Valier. It's not a crime to be annoying.

No it is not a crime, but it is a nasty thing to say that I am my usual annoying self.

I am sorry if my annoying demeanor is a bother to you...All I have to say is...BOTHER,BOTHER,BOTHER!

As for the talk of killing a male tonight I can see why this could help us weed out the lover wolf. How is this going to work if the other two wolves are female?
My Suspisions are:
Eonwe
Cailin
Thinlomien
Glirdan
(This may change in times to come but I gotta go *pouting* still to do homework, I will be back later)

[SamwiseGamgee]

Wow, amazing what you miss in 12 hours, eh?!

So, what am I thinking? Well, my suspicions are still mainly on Lhuna. I don't think she's explained herself at all well and unless I see something more substantial either 1. in her defence or 2. to incriminate someone else I'll be voting for her before nightfall.

I've had a look back and tried to pick apart anything and everything Ang said, and this is my result: not much! I agree with others who've said that the wolves really need to find the seers if they want to have any real chance of winning this game, and so I can only say- in shameless plagirism of others- that they based their decision on the hedgehogs speaking to him thing ( ). The other possibility is that they just did it at random, in which case my analysis has been for nought.

LMP, I'm very unhappy with you for post #219. If the lovers hadn't thought of this then you must be their favourite person in the whole village right now! Unless, of course, you already shared the information with your unfortunate beau? I don't think so, though. I think you just had an idea, didn't think and posted it. I'm inclined to forgive you, simply because I'm not sure I'd have done any differently myself.

Eonwe's vote is crazy. Two days, two thoroughly random votes. Is he a caution-to-the-wind wolf or just a downright unhelpful villager? Whatever he is, he made my list.

Eomer, for the minute, I think is probably innocent. Ok, so some of his posts are pure conjecture, but sometimes fuzzy logic is good. But he's a clever guy, and I must sadly admit that I may never learn to trust him.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

LMP, I'm very unhappy with you for post #219. If the lovers hadn't thought of this then you must be their favourite person in the whole village right now! Unless, of course, you already shared the information with your unfortunate beau? I don't think so, though. I think you just had an idea, didn't think and posted it. I'm inclined to forgive you, simply because I'm not sure I'd have done any differently myself.

Sorry to ruin your day. I only just thought of it before I posted it up. However, I expect that I haven't told the Lovers anything they didn't already realize, since they were right in the middle of "what shall we talk about?" already on Night 1. I said it because I think all us ordos need to keep it mind for our own sakes.

[the guy who be short]

You can hardly blame LMP for pointing that out. It was quite obvious.

I need bed.

++Eomer

[Lalaith]

Oh, come on you lot. I would have thought it was completely obvious that the wolf lover would confide all to his/her ord girl/boy...if the lovers needed lmp to point out to them the benefits of sharing knowledge then frankly.... No - we can be sure that the only thing those two don't know right now is the identity of the Seers.
I also note that a lot of people have completely ignored the urging of myself and (I think) tar-a, earlier today, NOT to talk about pair-ish behaviour, while both Seers were alive, for fear of outing them. It's a free world of course, but...

I need to go off now, and I'm still not sure who to vote for. I'm still inclined to the theory that it was the Garin defence that did for Ang which actually tells us very little about wolf identity...
I am right, I think, in saying that everyone has now posted today except for Celuien?
I'd like to have heard more from her. And I'm worried about the other quiet ones who have barely posted, as well.
Some points as I ponder:

I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well.

(Lommy )
This is ever the problem with madame spawn. Ditto tar-a. She's just scarily sensible. Actually, regarding the laundress, I'm encountering a bit more obstruseness than I would expect amid the usual spawnish clarity. I would also agree that Lhuna is troubling - the failure to break the double-lynch...hmmm...
Of our loudmouths, Eomer is, as many have pointed out, somewhat erratic, and lmp unusually quiet. But actually, someone else is being unusual. Eonwe is often random, yes, but usually there is more sense among the randomness than we have seen so far. Something's not right. So
++EONWE

[SamwiseGamgee]

LMP, that's actually very amusing. Imagine that awkward 'first date' PM:
"So... you come here often?" But your point is fair: the lovers won't be squandering the 1 PM they have, so they had probably already thought of it.

TGWBS, are you going to bother explaining your vote? Seriously, guys, we're making it so easy for those lupinous cretins if we just vote with no reason attatched other than being tired.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why so angry at LMP, Samwise? His ideas threaten the village not one jot.

TGWBS:

I'm sowing confusion?

What was odder? A random vote designed to gauge reaction; or asking to be lynched and confusing the entire village?

There is reasoning behind my silly little idea, it's just that it's terrible. I was typing in a rush as the thoughts entered my head. And I did go back and check a few minutes later, and then posted the relevant information about who had garnered votes. I just waited until I had finished my post before scrabbling around for the necessary name. It's ok to put things off for a few minutes, you know.

My point (which was not put well at all) was that perhaps it's likely that the wolves would kill someone who had voted for a wolf, in the hope of getting a Seer. It's unlikely they'd kill Anguirel randomly. So either Glirdan is a wolf or we were way off in our voting yesterday.

Not indubitable; but not the absolute worst idea you'll ever hear.

That's why I'm probably going to vote for Glirdan. If he's innocent then I'm inclined to think that certain others (LMP, for example) are innocent; because if they were wolves they would be looking for the Seer in amongst the people who voted for them.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must disagree, Eomer. If the non lupine lover knows the names of the wolves they could pose as a seer and lead us all on a merry dance, could they not? Or am I just being silly?

[Celuien]

Just got back. It's been a busy day.
I'll study the village scrolls and return shortly.

[Glirdan]

Anyway, another thought. Someone pointed out (with good reason) that the wolves can afford to lose one of their number in order to take out the Seer. So if Glirdan is a wolf then it's entirely feasible for the wolf-team to kill Anguirel (who voted for Glirdan) and let Glirdan fend for himself.

So, Glirdan....you're a wolf. (Eomer)

Oh no, the gig is up!! Just kidding!!

No offence to Glirdan, but in most games he is strange and in this one he has a change of heart and talks more using big words to garnish his posts. (Valier)

Well, is it working?? I do realize that Im' playing much more boldly then I normally would, but I like it. Especially since I have time...for now.

I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now. (Lalaith)

I'm not so sure that they would completely forget about framing the rest of us. But I do agree that they probably far more interested in findig the Seers then framing us. Yet, I think that they would (subconciously mind you) still attempt to frame others. I find that this would be a pretty good way of smoking out a Seer. If someone attacked one who was an innocent and the Seer knew that person was innocent, I believe that the automatic reaction would be to defend that person. In doing so, the Wolves would go for that person. That seems to be the case with what happened to Ang.

If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf.(Lhuny)

Is this a confession??

And what's this??

It does look bad for Lhuna, I'll grant, but I wonder if we ought to maybe be taking a closer peek at Samwise?(Form)

A Lover trying to shift suspicion of he partner?? Hmm... I'm getting suspicious of Gurthang and Lhuna now.

The interesting thought occured to me that the three main candidates up for lynching last night were male: Garin, Glirdan, and TGWBS. Is it possible, that in the flurry of tying/tie-breaking votes there at the end that one of our female players was trying to save- or did save- her lover?(Gurth)

Hmmm...Even though my name is up on that list, I must say that I'm having the same thoughts. Yet that doesn't mean we have to rule out the others who weren't up there.

Glirdan

Has bravely analysed the quiet villagers. This of course allows him to post without really voicing his own thoughts. A safe way out, were he fanged and hairy. He was in quite a dangerous spot for a while, yesterDay, and particularly because of Anguirel. His posting does seem different, as has been remarked upon before. Whether this is at his fellow wolves insistance or because he is a bored ordo trying a new style, I do not know. I am hesitant to believe Glirdan is the Lover, though.(Cailin)

First off, I did voice suspicionis after I did my analysis on them. As I've said before quite a few times, yes, I did change my style. But that's only because I was completely sick and tired of being quiet and getting suspicion for it and I wanted to be more helpful to the village. Every other time I've always felt useless. Now, I feel like I'm actually contributing and helping out. So, I guess you can say that I'm "a bored ordo trying a new style".

Is clearly not Lhuna’s ‘secret’ Lover. Everyone knows, right? Aside from that, Formendacil seems no different than normal. Based on the same method he uses to determine our guilt, I’d say he’s guiltless. However, I am not certain.(Cailin)

And why's that?? I haven't seen any defense from him saying why he can't be. Now I'm actually starting to think that you might be his 'secret' Lover. Why? Well, you're feeling jealous that everyone is thinking that Lhuna is it and you want to put a stop to it.

My point (which was not put well at all) was that perhaps it's likely that the wolves would kill someone who had voted for a wolf, in the hope of getting a Seer. It's unlikely they'd kill Anguirel randomly. So either Glirdan is a wolf or we were way off in our voting yesterday.

Not indubitable; but not the absolute worst idea you'll ever hear.

That's why I'm probably going to vote for Glirdan. If he's innocent then I'm inclined to think that certain others (LMP, for example) are innocent; because if they were wolves they would be looking for the Seer in amongst the people who voted for them.(Eomer)

If I may ask you one thing Eomer: if I was a Wolf, why on Arda would I want to attack someone who voted for me the previous Day when I know full well that it would put me under suspicion??

I will probably have to vote soon. I'll be back after I have some supper.

[Lalaith]

I repeat. Samwise, Form, Lmp. You're all intelligent men. Are you telling us that it never occurred to any of you, until Lmp thought of it just now, that the wolf lover wouldn't tell all to his ord lover?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Haha! Glirdan, it does indeed put you under suspicion.

BUT WAIT!

No-one even brought it up at the start of the day. It was all about how bad it looks for Kath.

I would have thought that the wolves would have jumped on this opportunity to get at poor innocent Glirdan.

And they haven't (because I'm not a wolf).

So, why not?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lalaith speaking more and more sense. Funny how your opinion of people changes through the day.

Her vote for Eonwe is justified, because he's apparently trying to leave no trail. That could be said for others.

The wolves won't kill TGWBS and we're going to lynch him before the end anyway. We might as well kill him now. And I admit that it's his vote for me that really got me thinking this way.

But despite his charade, I can read some sense in his posts. Do others think this way?

Farael, Kath...

Gah! I have to vote now. Mmmm....one moment please.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Glirdan, in post #235 you say that Gurthang said we should be taking a closer look at me, but it was Form in #213. I add this to Eomer's question.

Lalaith, I'll admit that the thought hadn't occurred to me. Intelligent, but not overly so!

[SamwiseGamgee]

Sorry, just as explanation: I raise Glirdan's error simply because I'm a very suspicious guy, and I can't see why he'd make that mistake.