Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

*shrugs* Whatever. Look, it was no big deal, I was really just interested in finding out what Gurthang meant by his initial comment. (I don't think he's answered me, either.)

Actually, of all the what-did-Ang-say-to-seal-his-fate theories that have been mooted, I think his defence of Garin is probably the most likely. I think the wolves are more interested in finding Seers than in framing anyone, right now.

[Lalaith]

Oh, and by the way:
is that it - the full gist of this grand revelation you've been promising to publish all day? That I didn't mention you in my post? Is that all it takes to be a wolf-suspect these days, not talking enough about Eomer?

[Valier]

ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I did not promise a grand revelation, or a grand masterplan, or anything like that. Why do people say that about what I'm doing? And besides, not mentioning me in that post is possibly important, because Kath and I were in exactly the same boat. So your not mentioning me while mentioning Kath is very relevant to my point. You imply that I'm being arrogant; but what makes you so sure you're worthy of a 'grand revelation'?

Grand revelation? I merely voiced suspicions of you. I'll retract that 'very wolvish' comment, though; because it was slightly too much.

My suspicion list:

1) Farael
2) Kath

Followed by:

3) Lalaith
4) Lhuna

We have to have suspects...

[Caranlondien]

On the Lalaith / Eomer front, I understand your suspicions, Eomer. But in Lalaith's defense, off-hand I remember Ang talking about Kath, but I didn't remember him talking about you or Glirdan until I went back and re-read his posts.

[Farael]

First of, to defend myself a little

Originally Posted by Nilp the Second… and everyone else who voiced similar suspicions

I also suspect Farael for beeing annoyed at me acting as Nilp - but then, for whatever reason, not following in my footsteps. His role was to kill himself. Why did he make a big fuss and not fulfill it?

Quite simply, because both you AND Garin had done it. Adding a third suicidal maniac to the mix would have been stupid.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Funny, though, how Farael jumped to the defence of Kath and not me, when Anguirel apparently jested with both of us.

Two reasons… first of all, at the time of the post I had not realized what that comment meant… second, he did not say anything about you being involved with a group of were-creatures… Honestly, I thought that he was accusing all but everyone to sugar-coat the pill… think about it, the strongest accusation he made was against Kath…. The rest were MUCH softer… If he had been the Seer, the co-seer could have argued this point without looking too seer-ish himself and thus saving himself from a wolfish retaliation.

Now on to the accusing.

The wolves have been smart… Anguirel was a safe kill for them as not only it would implicate me into it, but it would also give enough circumstantial evidence for Kath to argue that it was an obvious set-up and thus she could not possibly be wolfish. Some villagers have already voiced that proposition and I shall suspect you all for it. While it’s not enough evidence to indict Kath, I think that if she were a wolf, she’d be very interested in killing Ang last night. If he was a seer, she could point out that he accused many people. If he was innocent (as he turned out to be) and left to live, he could have kept on being random and watering down the “too obvious of a setup” argument. If he had kept on accusing people with strong words, no-one could have said that his death implicated him too obviously…. As it’d implicate half the village as well.


It was the right time and under the right conditions for such a kill. As well, note that I said I did not believe he was the Seer (I was right) and that he was a wolf trying to impersonate the seer (Others have said that he could have looked Seer-ish, so it’s not just me saying so).

I’m starting to think Kath is actually a wolf… if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.
-If Anguirel was the Seer, Kath might have been done for, but there would have been three more wolves remaining to only one Seer
-If Anguirel was not the seer, Kath could argue that his death shows a clear set-up and it might give her a little longer to live, thus making her look innocent (and for the looks of it, it worked)

Don’t disregard my words too easily (not a seer hint) as some of you seem to prefer weird, far-fetched theories than simpler, more logical ones. Sure, it could be that Lhuna and Formen are the lovers because they showed pretty much opposite voting behaviours and maybe they were lovers trying to differentiate from each other but odds are, they are not. I’m talking odds here, I’m not saying that it could NEVER be the case, but given a logical choice, we should follow simpler theories that are easier to test than more complicated, far-fetched ones. Or maybe it’s just the scientist on me talking.

Anyway, I want to hear some more from Kath… and tar-a, not for her vote last night but because she often makes well argued points yet last night she didn’t.

[Gurthang]

Well, after reading a little, Farael is starting to catch my eye. Not just a few are suspecting him. Here's something that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Farael

The wolves have been smart… Anguirel was a safe kill for them as not only it would implicate me into it, but it would also give enough circumstantial evidence for Kath to argue that it was an obvious set-up and thus she could not possibly be wolfish. Some villagers have already voiced that proposition and I shall suspect you all for it. While it’s not enough evidence to indict Kath, I think that if she were a wolf, she’d be very interested in killing Ang last night. If he was a seer, she could point out that he accused many people. If he was innocent (as he turned out to be) and left to live, he could have kept on being random and watering down the “too obvious of a setup” argument. If he had kept on accusing people with strong words, no-one could have said that his death implicated him too obviously…. As it’d implicate half the village as well.

Just seems to know too much how the wolves are acting. It's being spoken as fact, rather than hypothesis, which I don't like.

Kath seems to be handling suspicion calmly. Not necessarily an automatic innocent label, but it speaks in her favor.

[Glirdan]

First off, I'm the lumberjack. I was saying we shouldn't lynch me. As I still unwaiveringly support the idea that I should not be lynched, I hope you shall acquit me of flip-flopping.

Completely, my friend. It's been a long day for me. I'm really tired to say the least. And sorry about the gender mix up as well. Now that I go through that, I found absoultely nothing on you. You're safe in my eyes...for now.

Glirdan your posting seems off from the norm as well.

You're right, I'm playing more boldly then my kin in those other villages. But you know what, I like it. So, get used to it.

As for suspicions, I don't really have any at this poitn, unless it be Naria for the lack of posting. Quiet ones unnerve me and if I must say, Naria's definetly one of them.

I shall be back later with more.

[Cailín]

Let's not have suspects. Let's all live together, in peace and tolerance, meditate and bake chocolate chip cookies.

--

Farael is worrying me most right now. I am not yet overly suspicious of Lhuna, though she is playing a careful game. Thinlomien doesn't sit right with me somehow. As for the others, they are flying under my radar currently, though Eomer does seem rather fierce and jumpy. Probably he's just a little over-enthusiastic.

I will explain my reasons when I return. This day has been rather hectic so far.

edit: cross-posting with quite a few people here.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Cailin

Let's not have suspects. Let's all live together, in peace and tolerance, meditate and bake chocolate chip cookies

No suspects! But we must!

What's with the cookies? *looks down at nutricious bran muffins I brought* I am the sweet one I tell you! *bats eyelashes* Go with what you know I say (hint, Hint, Gossiper)

[Eonwe]

It appears that I have to vote of suffer the consequence. (According to the prophet of the mod god, those caught not voting are summarily killed off, right?)

Right, that means I have to vote now.

Therefore, I will vote for

++Valier

because she was the last one to post before me...

Sorry.

EDIT: Gurthang, you are a luck hombre...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Valier

ok so I noticed that Thin you voted for Glirdan as well as I did because he's acting strange? Care to elaborate? As well Ang voted for him to save Garin. Thin your vote is suddenly looking strange...... You could be looking at me as suspisious to hide your own Fur..... Funny you suspect me AND Ang got killed last night....hhhhmmmmmmmm

I'm not particularly suspecting you - before now. I just pointed out that we shouldn't let silent ones slip unnoticed. My "suspicions" (if you want to call them so) were not based on your Glirdan-vote. If you were under that impression, I understand my vote seems strange. Otherwise, I don't. I voted Glirdy because after one reading, there was something in his posting that didn't sit right with me. It was just a hunch. Surprisingly, I got a chance to get online after my vote (which I had not presumed) and was able to read through his posts and didn't find anything actually suspicious and believed him innocent. That's why I added later a wish for people not to follow my example.
What I don't understand is why are you drawing a connection of my brief mentioning of silent ones (including you) in suspicious light and Ang's death. Care to elaborate yourself?

One thing we see here in this Valier's post is a person being jumpy. I think she over-reacts a small suspicion. That's all I say about her (unless I'm mistaken):

I think we should pay attention to Caralondien, Naria and Valier. Just because they will otherwise just go unnoticed. ... I just fear that (a) silent wolf/wolves will slip unnoticed when loud villagers/wolves/lovers/gifteds hang each other.

Not really an accusation but there she is counter-attacking me ragingly. A jumpy wolf with bad nerves?

[Thinlómien]

Ah! And it's so interesting to find out that Valier doesn't eat sheep. Maybe she prefers humans? :P

I'm a bit worried about spawn. Why, you might ask. I agree that she's been sensible and convincing. And that's the problem with her. I'm worried that I trust her and I'm worried that other people trust her as well. If she's a wolf or a lover, we're in a big bad trouble, if the game continues like this concerning suspicions towards her.

[Formendacil]

Okay, first off... let me say:

"I told you so!"

No, I did. I said that Garin was playing perfectly to form, and was an Ordo. You didn't believe me, ergo, he is dead.

Anyway, moving on from this moment of ego to the death of Anguirel, I find it a heartening choice on the part of wolves. Not to dishonour Anguirel's memory or anything, but the fact that the wolves only got an Ordo last night is encouraging. Too many of these games end in a Wolvish victory because the Seer died right away.

That said, I'm not sure that analysis of Anguirel yesterday will help us a lot. Personally, I'm not the best analyser, so maybe I'm not the one who should be making this judgement, but it didn't seem to me that Anguirel left a lot of hardcore suspicions- unless one counts the Hedgehog King.

As for looking at yesterday's votes, I'm interested to see what people come up with, but I'd be hesitant about using them to convict people. I believe that TGWBS has said that we have nine people who voted for Garin? If so, then that's half the village. We could have all four Werewolves hiding in there, and still have a greater chance of taking out one of the Village Team.

The point has also been made already (my apologies, I forget by whom) that the wolves may very well have not been around to vote at the end of the day, it being a Day 1.

Personally, I'm hesitant to accuse anyone based on the time of their vote. Lhuna, for example, has been suspected of wolvery in every game she's played (albeit incorrectly each time), but because of the timezones, she's typically an early voter. In this game, because of advantageous timezones, she's naturally going to be voting near the end.

Oh, and speaking of Lhuna, I find the idea of her and me being the Lovers to be... amusing. I wouldn't have put it past Nilp to match the two of us up...

I'll be back in an hour or two with more thoughts...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gurthang, what are you talking about? No-one's saying so-and-so can't be a wolf. We're trying to determine likely wolf behaviour! We have to place a certain degree of trust in some people. If someone has a good voting record and speaks a lot of sense, and is helpful in tracking wolves, then it speaks in their favour somewhat.

Of course they could still be a wolf, but we are meant to weigh up evidence. If a wolf is not likely to take a certain course of action then it is likely that someone taking said course is not a wolf.

Likely, not definitely. We can't suspect everyone equally.

Anyway, another thought. Someone pointed out (with good reason) that the wolves can afford to lose one of their number in order to take out the Seer. So if Glirdan is a wolf then it's entirely feasible for the wolf-team to kill Anguirel (who voted for Glirdan) and let Glirdan fend for himself.

So, Glirdan....you're a wolf.

Farael, Kath and Lalaith all make fair defensive points. I'm still watching them.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer

So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused. Just one more thing about this:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Well, he's not a Seer, so it seems like a set-up.

So, if Anguirel had been a Seer, it wouldn't have been a set-up and we'd be all questioning Kath with good reasons? The fact that Anguirel was an ordinary villager instead of a Seer doesn't chance the wolves' motives to kill him. They didn't know who he was.

I must say, though, that defending Garin so strongly hinted to Anguirel's possible Seerishness more than mentioning Kath. I just wonder the talk of the 'frame-up'.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Lalaith, if wolf-Kath had killed Anguirel then it would not look obvious, considering that Anguirel had accused me in like manner and actually voted for Glirdan. Why should it lead back to Kath at all? Have you mentioned how it seriously leads back to me or Glirdan?

And that's a good point, too.

I need to vote soon. I shall now go to do some serious rereading...

[Valier]

Thin I was not counteracting you ragingly! I said I would look at who voted for Glirdan after I did. I was surprised to see you had voted for him as well. I think we tend to agree on most points( except my innocence) and this time you probably got the same feeling of weirdness about Glirdan. I just don't see why you always think me to be a wolf. No offence to Glirdan, but in most games he is strange and in this one he has a change of heart and talks more using big words to garnish his posts. Eonwe's vote is unacceptable! Not because it is for me, but Eonwe is always lacking in posts and reason, which makes it hard to tell when he is a wolf. After I just mentioned his weirdness he very randomly votes for me. I can't help think he is a wolf that tends to panic.

Thin so I see you found my subliminal message! I was simply implying that I don't eat any meat. I am way to sweet for that! *smiles sweetly* I am strictly a herbivor. I thought you might see that and believe me THIS time of my innocence.

[the guy who be short]

So many ideas floating around...

Well, first thing's first, I agree that we should lynch a male. We increase our chances of grabbing the lover and killing two birds with one blunt rocky thing.

All my suspects today seem to be male anyway.

I have to say, I suspect Eomer quite a bit at the moment. He's simply not doing his research and being a bit too random for my liking.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Total speculation. But I think that, out of the people who garnered votes yesterday, either none is a wolf, or more than one is.

That's just completely fabricated. There's no reasoning behind this.

Think of the votes yesterday. Anguirel got some, so did Eomer and LMP and Glirdan and TGWBS plus.....? Don't know off the top of my head.

If he didn't know, why not check? It's hardly difficult.

Plus the whole LMP vote was just odd.

Overall, it really does look like he's just trying to sow confusion and chaos.


Gurthang still appears suspicious to me, as does Farael. A self vote would hardly have ended the world at that time.

[Gurthang]

Just got finished with the next page. Cailin's doing some good analysis, although I'm not seeing a lot of conclusions being drawn with all those words.

As SamwiseGamgee has already pointed out, Glirdan tries to make a case against me (post #235), yet misquoted at least once. I know it was Formendacil who said one of the quotes, and I don't remember typing the other (could be wrong, though ). Not good when facts don't line up.

I'll vote soon.