Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Or alternatively, perhaps they thought Ang's defence of Garin meant they were the two Seers. (A VERY reckless pair, if that had been so!)
In that case, back to the original theory that Ang - or even Garin - might have said something Seerish through chance.

But at the end of the Day it was proved that Garin was no Seer. Why would they then have thought that Anguirel was his fellow Seer?

Or maybe tgwbs is right and we are spending too much on this.

Perhaps. Or maybe Anguirel's death will tell us more after a few days.



This Lhuna issue might be worth closer examining, I think.

#120: "I feel that both Garin and Glirdan are innocent, just completely misled."

"Two other people stood out for me toDay: Lalaith, Naria, and Eonwe." ~Lhuna

(Actually, that's three. )


12 minutes before the deadline, Formendacil comes and makes a tie. Interesting...

"Alas, though, I have little choice if I want to save Garin. Old players will know that I judge players by how "normal" their playing style is, and both Garin and Glirdan seem completely normal." ~Form

I use that tactic sometimes, too. That said, I think Lhuna's behaviour has changed quite a bit from the usual. More insecure and apologetic, I'd say.

"And I can but hope that Lhuna or some other late voter (IS there another voter as yet unvoted) will break the tie..." ~Form

Quite risky behaviour from Formendacil, but then again, he knew that Lhuna was around. Not that it helped, though, since she didn't break the tie.

#123: "This could possibly put me in trouble if Garin's found indeed innocent, but I have to make a stand. I'm so sorry, Garin..." ~Lhuna

There's the apology. Villagers whose actions are decorated with apologies are creeping me out. I can't understand that she didn't want to save Garin even though she seemed confident that he was innocent. Instead she voted for someone who had no chance of getting killed yesterDay in place of Garin or TGWBS. The fact that we were uncomfortably close to a double-lynch doesn't help either.

#139: "I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer" ~Lhuna

A wolvish confession?

#154: "Seriously, Samwise...after suspecting those who voted for tgwbs, how could I bring myself to vote for him to save Garin? I still think he's innocent" ~Lhuna

So, it was better to risk two lives that you deemed to be innocent instead of saving one of them?

Right now your actions feel rather wolvish, young missy.

[Lalaith]

But at the end of the Day it was proved that Garin was no Seer. Why would they then have thought that Anguirel was his fellow Seer?

Doh!
Sorry. Of course.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think we should pay attention to Caralondien, Naria and Valier. Just because they will otherwise just go unnoticed. Not that there's much to analyse about them, but I'm just saying we shouldn't forget them.Day one already passed, they've proven (at least Cara and Naria) to be good at not getting attention.

There are some other people that have escaped doubt. But I myself admit that we can't concentrate in analysing everyone. I just fear that (a) silent wolf/wolves will slip unnoticed when loud villagers/wolves/lovers/gifteds hang each other.

Those three have been very chary of words, but while we await them to join us toDay, we can analyse those who have said enough instead of just twirling our thumbs, yes?


*sigh*

Okay, I try...
Here's what I found out of Naria:

#29 - Isn't impressed by Gurthang's post #20 where he claims that randomly speaking, Naria is a wolf. I don't know why Naria chose to answer this "accusation", but she doesn't seem overly defensive or anything.

Originally Posted by Naria

But I digress, and will myself, look a little deeper and see what I can see before vote time.

Well, I'd have liked to hear more of her thoughts, but maybe some other time then, because she posted only once after this yesterDay.

#139 - Says Garin is probably being just himself. Thinks that TGWBS' vote is stupid, and votes for him because usually she would have voted for Nilp (and TGWBS is the closest equivalent in this game, or something like that. Notice, btw, that Nilp's never been a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's so good a reason for a vote ).

~The End~

All in all, I'm not suspicious of Naria right now, because she's acting like I would have expected.

I'm not sure if I have time to analyse Valier or Caralondien now (they've posted a tad more than Naria), so someone else can do that if they want to.

Edit: A horrible thought just occured to me. Maybe I'm suspicious of Naria anyway...

[Glirdan]

Poor Ang. Tis a tragedy that he had to go so soon. We could really have used his insight.

I'm not sure if I have time to analyse Valier or Caralondien now (they've posted a tad more than Naria), so someone else can do that if they want to.(Spawn)

I volunteer to do it. I'll be back with a posting analysis on them shortly.

[Glirdan]

Valier

Post #19 - The usual mourning for the loss of our Prophet. Asks who's going to give her luck for shearing her sheep. Also says she's going to look at the "creepy's". Says she's going to knit TGWBS a new beard because he tore his own beard out. Agree's with others that we should concentrate on the Wolves and not the Lovers. Tells the Wolves to give themselves up. Says she's going to go clear her head and make beards for everyone. Then Randomly accuses the Unemployed.

Post #56 - Scolds Garin for not knowing her well enough because he thought she wouldn't be so bold as Valier had been. Says she just felt bad for TGWBS because he ripped his beard out. Is baffled why anyone would campaing for their own deaths. Says she will not vote for one of the "campaingners" and thinks they are to striken with grief.

Post #109 - Says that all the days bantering has left her confused and votes for Glirdan. Says her vote is hasty and safe and thinks it will be taken at face value. Doesn't take first day accusations seriously until there is more concrete proof. Says that unemployed people help little.

I can't get a whole lot out of this except the fact that she doesn't like the unemployed. And if so, why not vote for Formendacil?? That also would have been a safe vote, would it not? I'll be back shortly for the analysis on Caralondien

[Eonwe]

My, my, this early in the bright morn, and already a firey discussion blazes forth from the village. I like it!

My heart is greatly downcast at the revelations that this new dawn brings to light. Anguirel was ever a stalwart champion in our fight against the phanamonious wolves that pery apon us by night. I do hope that we will live through this nightmere, if only to immortallize his last stand in song.

I'm going to have a job of siffting through all the posts, not to mention looking back on yesterDay for my own analysis. This could take awhile, and, as I don't have much time, I cannot promise you any worthwhile data, though I will of course try my best.

Not to mention, I will have a hard time getting on this weekend, as I have a full plate of whatnot to attend to. Sorry bout that.

[Glirdan]

Caranlondien

Post #49 - Cries in pity for our Prophet and says we must overcome our grief to find the Werewolves. Says that it would be foolish to lynch Ang as he's the villages only proper lumberjack and also says that he's never seen Ang bring back so much as one piece of firewood. (being slightly contradictive?) Says that it will be difficult to find four Wolves but is heartened by the fact that one is a traitor. Sees no reason for us to not find both Lovers and Wolves.

Post #55 - Agrees with Eonwe that looking for the Wolves would be simpler. Says that as we search for the Wolves, each of us have personal "parameters" that a Wolf would fit and says that the traitor would not necessarily fit these "parameters".

Post #108 - Believes Garin is innocent because of his reactions. Says his vote will not make a significant impact yet he's been suspicious of Ang for awhile. Says he says much yet says little. Votes Ang.

The oddest thing I find about all of this is that Caranlondien says in his very first post that we shouldn't lynch Ang and then, pretty much out of the blue, he votes Ang at a time where it would be a very safe vote and not do any real damage.

I will be back later. I need to go tend to my hut.

[Cailín]

I have little time, so just a few quick reactions.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

How so? I make it a definite seven - four wolves, two seers and an ord lover. Where does the five come in? Has one of us got the wrong end of the stick?

Hmm yeah, you might interpret it either way. By knowing more, I meant knowing the identity of the wolves, while clearly the Seers also know more as they know each other and the true identity of at least two other players.

Just for clarification, dear Prophet, I assume that if the Seers dream of a Lover, they shall only know whether s/he is an Ordo or wolf and not learn of their secret relationship?

Why so, Gurthang? Ang obviously knew no more than any other ord - do you mean he might have inadvertantly stumbled on the truth? A risky ploy to lynch him, surely as the trail leads so obviously back to Kath.

I also, as I stated before, do not really believe Kath to be guilty. If indeed Ang was suspected to be a Seer with a lucky dream, surely the wolves would have thought he'd have voted for Kath. It seems too obvious a set up.

In retrospect, Anguirel was maybe killed for his noble efforts to save Garin.

If an innocent ord spots what he thinks is suspicious pairwork, is it a good idea to bring this up publicly? Might this not alert the wolves to the identity of the Seer pair?

If an ord is sure of their findings, better keep quiet. The same goes for identifying the Lover pair - if neither of them is a wolf, likely we have found the Seers. I shall not change my views: the werewolves are the main threat, not these star-crossed Lovers. If we bring down all wolves, we will find them sooner or later.

Lhuna has been under a bit of suspicion because of her 'noble' vote. I usually suspect wolves to vote early on Day 1 to avoid getting caught up in tallying scores and giving innocents the final blow. I'm not really sure how I feel about Lhuna, and she seems different somehow. However, she was recently a first Day lynchee, if we're going to bring up other legendary werewolf stories anyway, which might explain her being a bit more careful.

I still think he's innocent, just being Nilp to a T. Sure, Lalaith has a point that he could pull off a bluff like that, but right now I believe he's innocent.

Lhuna, TGWBS had already announced he would be pulling a Nilp. So did Farael. Not doing it would make them look more suspicious, which is precisely why I am uncomfortable concerning Farael right now. He might have been very relieved he did not need to be suicidal after all. And as to the short one, his act doesn't make him look better nor worse.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Just for clarification, dear Prophet, I assume that if the Seers dream of a Lover, they shall only know whether s/he is an Ordo or wolf and not learn of their secret relationship?

He said so somewhere. Can't just remember when, but I'm sure he said so.

[Thinlómien]

Glirdy, just one thing. Cara is a she.

Despite of your analysis, I don't find her particularly suspiciuos, because:
#1 - She's a newbie to WW. They can play quite strangely. (no offense)
#2 - I'm a flip-floppy person so I don't want to accuse anybody else for it. Or maybe about real flip-flops, but not about changing one's mind or writing weirdly. Cara doesn't explain herself, but I assume that she just changed her mind. Most of people do that quite often.

Though, spawn was correct, there isn't very much to analyse in her. She can be a wolf as well as an innocent.

I plead her and other silent villagers to speak. We really need everyone's opinion, advise (and slips ) to get the wolves.

EDIT: cross-posted with Cailín
edit-add: I say that Cara doesn't explain herself and just voice my assumptions and place a dot. That sounds like would think that her changing of mind needs no explanation. I'm not saying so. I wait that Cara will explain herself.

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Caranlondien

[B]Says that it would be foolish to lynch Ang as he's the villages only proper lumberjack and also says that he's never seen Ang bring back so much as one piece of firewood. (being slightly contradictive?)

First off, I'm the lumberjack. I was saying we shouldn't lynch me. As I still unwaiveringly support the idea that I should not be lynched, I hope you shall acquit me of flip-flopping.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Funny, though, how Farael jumped to the defence of Kath and not me, when Anguirel apparently jested with both of us.

I agree that this makes Farael and Kath look suspicious.

I'll be back after I read over some more posts.

[Lhunardawen]

Ah, suspicion. I never get into a village without it. This time it's because I let the tie between tgwbs and Garin remain by voting for someone who's very unlikely to be lynched. Because I thought the two of them are innocents and couldn't vote for any of them to save the other. Right? That's why I really hate these near-double lynchings. If I had voted for one, I would have been a bandwagoning wolf. Now that I chose not to vote for either, I'm a noncomittal werewolf. So what would I be? Either way I'll be suspected.

Eomer, I'm sorry that you think I have something lupine in me. Are we really meant to be enemies in Werewolf?

I just stuck to my previously mentioned suspicions and voted for one of them, hoping the other villagers who were around and haven't voted yet will break the tie. I see no sense in jumping on a bandwagon that I already said I refused to trust.

tar-ancalime: Yes, we wanted to save him. Read the final posts yesterDay, and you'll see that Anguirel, Lommy (though she later regretted it), Form, and dancing spawn voted in a way to help save Garin.

Whoops, I meant three, dancing spawn. Mathematics...

A wolvish confession?

No, a fair observation. I think Anguirel could have pulled off such a bold declaration if he really was the Seer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That thing I posted about Farael and Kath wasn't true, by the way. There was no 'I think we are meant to be enemies' comment — maybe it was on the original game thread? I don't know. Sorry.

Anyway, I think it would be a killer tactic for wolfy-Farael to slay Anguirel at night and then he could say 'Oh, but then I would have wanted to continue attacking him next day; this means that I'll need a new target.'

True, but it's unexpected enough to work; and I think you'd be bold enough to agree to kill Anguirel at night and try to work it during the day that a wolf wouldn't do that.

Anyway, Lhuna: why do you always apologise so much for your votes. It really makes you look suspicious.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Anguirel made a humorous accusation of Kath in his second post before she'd even posted.

I'll say it once again, Kath did post before Anguirel made the "Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat" post. I don't know if that makes much difference, but it's good to keep the facts straight.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Inside joking. But for anyone who doesn't know the joke the comment was a bit misguiding.And I disagree with you about the death of our prophet. There was "++Nilpaurion Felagund" four times, which was a reference to the wolves.

Yes, I got that you were joking, but I didn't get the 'slip'. And no, it was there five times, but maybe the last vote was Adam's.

If someone says on Day 1 "I vote tgwbs because I can't vote Nilp" it seems very wolvish to me

Or then it seems Naria-esque. In any case, it's hard to make conclusions of that since she's so silent...

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

But the fact of the two unprotected Seers remains. I have to think that the wolves' only object at this point is to find the two of them. I think that for every wolvish kill, we have to ask ourselves: what made them think the victim was a Seer? What did they get right?

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

tar-ancalime: Yes, we wanted to save him. Read the final posts yesterDay, and you'll see that Anguirel, Lommy (though she later regretted it), Form, and dancing spawn voted in a way to help save Garin.

Lhuna, I don't think our votes can be ragarded as helpful when talking about saving Garin.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by spawn

Those three have been very chary of words, but while we await them to join us toDay, we can analyse those who have said enough instead of just twirling our thumbs, yes?

Did I say otherwise? Seriously, that was part of my point but I'm not sure if it can be figured out from my post. (I sometimes write like I would be assuming that people know what I think. )

Originally Posted by spawn, about Naria

Thinks that TGWBS' vote is stupid, and votes for him because usually she would have voted for Nilp (and TGWBS is the closest equivalent in this game, or something like that. Notice, btw, that Nilp's never been a wolf, so I'm not sure if that's so good a reason for a vote ).

(underline mine) Wait a minute! In normal conditions she would have voted for Nilp?!

Originally Posted by Naria

I do find Shorty's vote for himself, for lack of a better word, stupid(or maybe there is a better word ?). If he wants to be a Nilp than I will have to vote for him, as that is what I would do on the first DAY if it were Nilp.(smileys)

Refresh your memories, fellow villagers! What happened to our dear prophet? He was lynched (=voted) by wolves! A bad slip. Wolvish or unwolvish is the queston.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Did I say otherwise? Seriously, that was part of my point but I'm not sure if it can be figured out from my post. (I sometimes write like I would be assuming that people know what I think. )

I had the impression that you wanted us to lay off our previous debates and concentrate on those three, but I may have misunderstood you, sorry.

(underline mine) Wait a minute! In normal conditions she would have voted for Nilp?!

That's what she said.

Refresh your memories, fellow villagers! What happened to our dear prophet? He was lynched (=voted) by wolves! A bad slip. Wolvish or unwolvish is the queston.

Hmm, actually, I think it's a sort of a tradition of Naria's to vote for Nilp. I'm not sure if Nilp was voted off by the wolves, you know... What's the slip here?


Also, dear people of Ened-in-Nowhere: read the first post of this thread (there are some who call it 'rules') and you'll find playing much more easier when you know how the system works.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The wolves are trying to catch the Seers. I think that's very likely, if not indubitable.

Now, if Anguirel was thought to be the Seer, it's because he tried to save Garin so. He even said that his 'forest instincts' told him that Garin was innocent.

He voted for Glirdan (I think: correct me if I'm wrong). But didn't seem to strongly suspect him (despite his calls for 'die wolf!' or whatever, I think that's just Anguirel being amusing — how I miss him...)

So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

Anguirel made a humorous accusation of Kath in his second post before she'd even posted. What's out of the ordinary here? What right-thinking person would link the death back to Kath? It seems to me that the wolves might be getting a bit defensive, considering that Farael also jumped onto Kath's accuser ( a bit hysterically, if you ask me) after Anguirel's jest. Farael also mentioned something about he and Kath always being at odds in Werewolf — Don't look that way to me! EDIT: [Last sentence not actually true ]

Tar-ancalime appears to be thinking along these lines.

So, I'm mightily suspicious of Farael, Kath, and Lalaith. (I'll post again on Lalaith, later).

[Thinlómien]

I seem to be good at getting you under wrong expressions, spawn. (See - partially - below: )

Hmm, actually, I think it's a sort of a tradition of Naria's to vote for Nilp. I'm not sure if Nilp was voted off by the wolves, you know... What's the slip here?

Inside joking. But for anyone who doesn't know the joke the comment was a bit misguiding. And I disagree with you about the death of our prophet. There was "++Nilpaurion Felagund" four times, which was a reference to the wolves. If someone says on Day 1 "I vote tgwbs because I can't vote Nilp" it seems very wolvish to me (not that I'm assuming the wolves to be so stupid, but...). Hope that you got my point this time better.

[Lalaith]

So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Eomer, I was merely responding to Gurthang's initial statement that he would be looking closely at Kath. I meant that if a wolf-Kath had killed Ang for naming her, it would be rather obvious.

[tar-ancalime]

from Lhunardawen:

tar-ancalime: Yes, we wanted to save him. Read the final posts yesterDay, and you'll see that Anguirel, Lommy (though she later regretted it), Form, and dancing spawn voted in a way to help save Garin.

I have read those posts. I take issue with your including yourself in that group; that's why I italicized "we."

from Eomer:

Anyway, I think it would be a killer tactic for wolfy-Farael to slay Anguirel at night and then he could say 'Oh, but then I would have wanted to continue attacking him next day; this means that I'll need a new target.'

That's exactly what I thought! Especially since Farael made it a point yesterday to remind us of his ancestors' singleminded pursuit of one target. What better play than to pretend he was up to his old tricks, only to be stopped in his tracks by the nasty, nasty wolves who killed his quarry?

But the fact of the two unprotected Seers remains. I have to think that the wolves' only object at this point is to find the two of them. I think that for every wolvish kill, we have to ask ourselves: what made them think the victim was a Seer? What did they get right?

And with Anguirel that could be Kath; it could also be lmp; it could also be you, our toothy troubadour!

I think there is something in this Farael charade idea; could the wolves have decided during the Day to kill Anguirel as a potential Seer, then set up Farael's attacks on him in advance?