Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[tar-ancalime]

Yeah, me again.

I finally got a chance to take a look at today's posts.

I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason.

Lalaith, you're right on here:

Firstly, we have two pairs operating here. One is a pair we are desperate to keep safe, the other most emphatically not...but it would be disastrous if we were to mistake one for the other. If an innocent ord spots what he thinks is suspicious pairwork, is it a good idea to bring this up publicly? Might this not alert the wolves to the identity of the Seer pair?

I've gotten in trouble for this in the past, but here goes again: if you think you know who the Seers are, for Varda's sake keep your trap shut! If you're right you're obviously helping the wolves by bringing it up; if you're wrong you're helping the wolves by adding a false element to the game. They can use it. They thrive on confusion.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just now I'm most interested in what went on with Eomer and LMP yesterday. Does either of them (moreso Eomer on this front) wish to explain themself? I'm not saying they're wolves, I'm just somewhat suspicious, as any villager should be.

tar-ancalime, you make a fair point that Ang had some interesting things to say about me. And frankly, I'd probably have said the same regarding myself in the 'clutching at straws' atmosphere of day one. However, I'm less inclined to look at those who Ang accused directly. We're in a very experienced village, and I don't think the wolves would slip up like that on night one. Now, of course, I ahave just asked questions of Eomer and LMP, who were accused by Ang. However, my suspicions are not based on Ang's accusations, but rather on their suspicious actions. So, if you ask me, Lommy and Kath are probably innocent. And I am too, obviously.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Just another little one to agree with tar-ancalime: at this early stage just monitor any pairish action you think you see. This is helpful because, as t-a said, it prevents layers of falsehood building too readily but also because a longer observation period will allow you to gather more evidence and make it less likely you'll be accused and maybe lynched for making baseless accusations.

[Lalaith]

longer observation period will allow you to gather more evidence and make it less likely you'll be accused and maybe lynched for making baseless accusations

That's not the point, Samwise. The two Seers are the most important innocents. Ords being lynched are an occupational hazard, our priority is keeping the Seers safe for as long as we can.
I personally don't think any accusations about pairwork, however well-founded, should be made while both Seers remain alive.

[Lalaith]

And remember, we don't have a Ranger so an outed Seer is a defenceless Seer.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Fair point, Lalaith. Now, onto darker matters: Lhuna.

Post #123: Lhuna votes for Lalaith. Now, at the time I thought this odd, as it left the tie which Form had created (in itself suspicious) standing. However, I let it pass until post #139, where Lhuna says: 'And the fact that a double-lynch was all too near is a bit disconserting.' But obviously not all that disconserting, as you let the tie stand. What say ye, Lhuna?

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

Fair point, Lalaith. Now, onto darker matters: Lhuna.

Post #123: Lhuna votes for Lalaith. Now, at the time I thought this odd, as it left the tie which Form had created (in itself suspicious) standing. However, I let it pass until post #139, where Lhuna says: 'And the fact that a double-lynch was all too near is a bit disconserting.' But obviously not all that disconserting, as you let the tie stand. What say ye, Lhuna?

Seriously, Samwise...after suspecting those who voted for tgwbs, how could I bring myself to vote for him to save Garin? I still think he's innocent, just being Nilp to a T. Sure, Lalaith has a point that he could pull off a bluff like that, but right now I believe he's innocent.

I guess approaching a double lynch was inevitable yesterDay because we wanted to save Garin, but that doesn't make it any more comfortable.

[the guy who be short]

I'm back.

I'm still a wolf by the way.

I have many thoughts swirling through my head, but I will hold them for another Day.

Let me just say that we should not focus too much on the votings of the first day. There were 22 villagers, I believe, and... oh, we voted for 10 of them altogether? Impressive.

In that case, I will consider day one votes, for they will not be entirely useless.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And remember, we don't have a Ranger so an outed Seer is a defenceless Seer.

Don't we? I was under the impression we have one.

EDIT: cross-posted with tar-ancalime, not that it matters but just for the record

[the guy who be short]

On Day one, there is no need for wolves to keep their votes til the end, as they usually do. This is because the village generally plunges itself into confusion anyway.

However, I shall still suspect spawn and Gurthang for late apathetic votes. At such a stage, the sensible thing for a villager to do would be to vote for either Garin or I - whoever looked worst. To throw their vote away reeks of... apathy. Of these two, Gurthang sits worse with me.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Maybe we should vote TGWBS, he's probably pulling reverse psychiatry (I know that's not the right word) on us. 'No wolf would vote for himself!". Bah! I am unconvinced of that, but remain undecided.

This was shortly after my suicidal post (I'm still a wolf, by the way). It seems he was trying to see if he could garner support for lynching me before commiting himself. Then, when there was a large movement to lynch either me or Garin, he threw his vote away - knowing we were both innocent - sorry, one of us is a wolf, I mean! - so as not to gain suspicion.

I also suspect Farael for being annoyed at me acting as Nilp - but then, for whatever reason, not following in my footsteps. His role was to kill himself. Why did he make a big fuss and not fulfill it?

Formendacil's reasoning also seems a bit iffy.

Meanwhile, LMP seems trustworthy.