Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Garin]

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I willl post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

[Garin]

Second, why did the wolves kill Anguirel? I've looked fairly quickly back over his posts and I see no hints of Giftedness. I also don't see any obvious frame-up scheme, especially since Ang had voted for Lhuna. To be honest, the choice confuses me a bit, for surely Ang would have come under suspicion toDAY for his vote, had he not been killed.

It is obvious that Boromir is a werewolf. This was a safe kill for them. Ang votes for one of them on day one but votes for an innocent on day two.

Also note that Boromir eased the pressure off of me on day two. If I had been lynched he could have vindicated himself.

I'm going to be consistent and start the voting....

++Boromir

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I didn't get very much from my review of Ang's contributions. I did notice one thing, though. It's not much, but it might provide some assistance.

He mildly defended Glirdan (#45) and Celuin (#52) early on in Day 1 and Garin on Day 2 (#173). Might the Wolves have thought that he was our Hunter or our Ranger, defending a fellow Gifted? If so, it would speak in favour of one or perhaps more of those three.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

So the big question in my mind toDAY is whether LMP is guilty.

I'm pretty sure that he is.

Originally Posted by Garin

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

I have not discounted that possibility. Lmp knew at the time that he voted for Boro that Boro was not going to be lynched. It is possible that he was casting a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. The problem is that I can see very little else to concern me about Boro. I think it more likely that lmp was casting a "safe throwaway" vote. One which would not result in the lynching of an innocent and thereby attract suspicion.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Here we go. I wondered when this would come up. Indeed, I could pretty much have guaranteed that it would become an issue if I made it to Day 3 without getting lynched or mauled. Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook. Perhaps they thought that Ang was Gifted. Or perhaps it's because some of my reasoning has been awry. I was very suspicious of Lhuna, and I was clearly wrong in that. My suspicions of Ang were growing yesterday. Perhaps there is a Wolf among those that I was considering likely to be innocent. I don't know. But feel free to review my contributions as closely as you like. I have nothing to hide.

Now, I'm off to look at the Lhuna voters, if you don't mind.

[Garin]

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me.

Sauce, i can say that it is mostly out of respect and also that you are destined to be a wolf.
(past life speaking)

So, are you a wolf?

[Formendacil]

Terribly sorry if this is too brief or muddled... but it seems I've got strep throat, and my brain isn't working quite as efficiently as normal...

I can't make heads or tails of what LMP is saying today... I'll have to take the word of the village as authoritative in that he's a Werewolf...

Or not...

Ugh... Go ahead and lynch me. My brain hurts.

[Garin]

Fare thee well Form... I understand taking ill and I'm inclined to trust you. Wolves tend to be involved no matter what happens upon them.

I have some nutritious bread if you are so inclined. I suggest you vote quite hastily if you are in such an illness.

Vote now.

[Kath]

Why should he vote now Garin? That seems very rushed. He may be ill but that's not to say he won't come back later. Early votes are all very well and good if you're certain but Form is obviously not. And opinions may change throughout the Day depending on what has been said.

I just don't think making a snap decision based on illness is of any use.

[tar-ancalime]

I'm with Kath, Garin. Unless Formendacil has a truly wicked strain of strep, it sounds like a great excuse to hole up with a vast pot of tea, a quilt, and our village. Give the man a chance!

Not that I'm without sympathy--I know how wretched it can make you feel, especially at the beginning. It just seems to me that to demand an immediate vote is taking things a little too far.

[Garin]

Kath
The early votes are the most condemnable and I happened to make the first. I guess I wouldn't mind company.

Who knows?

I need to head out now.

I am confident with mine.

[tar-ancalime]

from Aiwendil, regarding lmp: He's almost become the quantum villager: it's impossible to know both his suspicions and the speed at which those suspicions are changing at the same time.

I spit out my coffee laughing when I read this!

But really, I think that lmp's posts today are much more troublesome than the windmill-tilting he's been doing for the past two days. They're finessed and careful in a way that he generally isn't. Unless this is just another quick change, soon to be forgotten.

I think we'll have to wait and see what the poet does for the rest of the day--he looks like an easy target now, but how will he look in 20 hours?

I don't think Anguirel's death points at anyone. I think that's the whole idea--the wolves have killed a smart, vocal villager (and there are plenty of both in this village) without leaving a real trail, because he wasn't embroiled in any of the strong dialogues of accusation and defense that have sprung up:

Farael and Aiwendil

Boromir88 and lmp (except that lmp changed his mind and voted for Lhuna....sigh)

dancing spawn and Eomer (from late in the day yesterday)

Anguirel's death doesn't disrupt any of these conversations, any or all of which might be smoke and mirrors. That's why the wolves killed him.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Garin

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with each other. This again could be some wolfish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I will post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

I think I have it figured out, though this will most likely be written off as another 'crazy mormegil plan' that is naught but rubbish. Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. Later on we see Garin bring up more talk of LMP that falls short.

Originally Posted by LMP

I really want to give LpM benefit of the doubt but turning on someone who is definitely not going to vote for him today is rather transparent,

Nice try Wolfie.

I don't want to cast around anymore pronouncements without the proper documentation, I just know that one or two of my detractors is a wolf. I also know one or two of those ignoring me is a wolf--they don't want to get entwined if their wolf friends can rally the village against me.

I suggest the village lynch littlemanpoet who seemed anti-Boromir until the bluff failed.

I think the wolves agreed last night that LMP was going to be dead today, so they better maneuver in a way that when he dies it won't implicate his comrades. Let me quote LMP. The whole post is pertinent but I will only quote a part.

Originally Posted by LMP

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

I really think that Eomer, Garin, and LMP are the most suspicious today and LMP being the most likely to die. When we discover, as I believe we will, that he is indeed a wolf we will look back on his post and discover that his most recent posts contain his indication that Eomer and Garin are wolves, we will assume that no wolf would be so foolish and therefore right them off as innocents. I say this is madness to do this! I think we have our trio here and I suggest a full lynching without pause of LMP. I want to do it quickly before my compassion kicks in and I begin believing, again, his 'poor me' story. I said again because I have 'flip-flopped' on his guilt and innocence today and yesterday. I'm thinking that the plan would be to have Eomer come out and at least implicate on of the two fellow wolves today so the triangle would be complete. Now that I have said this it will be interesting to see what he says.

Now having said that I would like to address the ridiculous question of 'why is SpM still here'. Realize old friend that what I say I do so with the highest respect to you. But what makes SpM so great? Why should the wolves kill him so soon? He's intelligent, yes but is he infallible? No of course not. He is often wrong, as am I. He's a mover and shaker, if you'll forgive the expression, but I weary of the tedious question of why he and some others make it past night 1. Could he be a wolf, yes of course but just because he has survived doesn't make him one. There are many that are equally intelligent but aren't questioned as to why they are still alive. I believe, that wolves might leave him around knowing that this insane question will inevitably be asked. Now if we have no actual evidence against SpM let's drop it.

Disclaimer I am not defending SpM, per se, what I am doing is trying to dispel the tired notion that any longevity in SpM equals Lupinity (is that a word?) But honestly I've seen nothing out of the ordinary from him at all.

Originally Posted by LMP

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

Now of course I could be wrong but I think I've nailed at least two wolves in this scheme and will not back down today.

Originally Posted by Tar-a

I also don't want to overlook mormegil. He's been flying under the radar for the entire game. I have nothing more concrete than that, but he's making me nervous.

HA! Even when I try or am forced to be quiet I never fly under the radar. My posts tend to be very accusatory and straight forward, never beating around the bush for me.

++LMP

While I suspect him to be a wolf I think that if he is innocent, which is improbable, his death will tell us much more. Remember that if there is a tie it better be LMP who reaches the vote count first.

[tar-ancalime]

from mormegil:

Quote:

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

So, is this a reference to past lives? I noticed it when SPM first posted it but decided to keep quiet because I was afraid it might be one of those ill-advised early Gifted hints--indicating a Hunter/Ranger duo. But since others have noticed it, I'll pipe up and say that that's what it sounded like to me. Either a too-risky hint or a wolf throwing out hint-flavored bait.

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm in a haste, so I'll say only a few things now.

1) No summary today. You talk so much that I have hard time keeping up anyway, and I can't be around toDay as much as I had hoped. Yes, pretty convenient, you think, for me to disappear just when people are getting suspicious of me, but my weekends just are like that.

2) Nilp is innocent.

3) The way Eomer responded to my accusations (or is it suspicions?) looked even more wolvish to me, and I shall come back to analyse that as soon as I can.

4) I think it's generally a good idea to look at those toDay, who have avoided the spotlight thus far.

[Glirdan]

Oh dear!! Ang is dead! Everyone who enjoys my music is being killed off one by one.

I must answer one short thing that Lmp has asked abaout me already:

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents

I would have answered them on Day 1 but I had very little time. You'd know this if you checked the village's bulletine board.

All I have to say is that I am greatly confused at the moment. I shall be back later after a more thorough analysis of the posts toDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm surprised. I really am. I will do my best to respond to the suspicion placed on me today. I will say that it's funny how only one person really suspected me in the first two days and then — overnight — many villagers are mentioning my name.

About Lhuna: I was wrong. I thought there was a good chance that she was a wolf, and I was wrong. The whole Oh Glirdan! You're probably innocent but what can I do? act appeared very wolvish to me. I was just as wrong as several villagers; it just so happens that my target's identity was revealed before theirs.


SPM follows Spawn's lead and makes a case against me (I wonder if this was arranged last night). He mentions that my suggestion that wolves will be slightly 'timid' and 'extremely friendly' was worrying, as it's problematic to assume wolf-categories. I agree with this, but neither Spawn nor SPM point out that I said Please debate with me in that post. Day One — let's get talking, please! It was hardly the cleverest post but I don't think it's worth all this bother.

Re. Addressing the question of unity between Tar and Spawn to SPM: SPM had previously said that Tar's random vote for me was odd, especially considering her suspicion of Spawn. I addressed it to SPM because I thought he'd be the villager most likely to care and respond (which he did, eventually).

About my supposed 'mild suspicions' of Formendacil and Mormegil: I was (and I know I'll be jeered for saying this) trying to be helpful. Yes, that's right. I was trying to be a help to the village. You see, while a lot of people are going crazy and throwing around rash accusations hither and thither around LMP, Boromir88, Garin, etc. I've been staying out of that mess and looking at the slightly less obvious villagers.

I do see how that can be seen as wolvish, think that if you will; but I will absolutely not apologise for not screaming accusations. I raise suspicion without 'pressing it home'? I'm sorry but I do not understand what's being asked of me here. My main target for the first two days was Lhuna. I was content with my target then, and happy enough to question others.

Today, though, I do have a new target. Oh yes, I wonder if you can guess who it is...

Farael was a safe target? Blimey. You suggest a new way of looking at things and you get people jumping at your throat. I guess that's Werewolf for you.


The most wolvish thing about me was indeed my shrill defence at Spawn's accusation. That's just the way I am, though. I can't help but come across as a bit of a *insert obscenity here* when playing this game.

One more point, and this is something I resent highly. This continued allegation that I am being unhelpful. What exactly can I say to that? Have I caught a wolf? No. So, in that way, I guess you could say that I haven't offered great help to this poor village. So, at the risk of sounding sarcastic, I urge all villagers to flock to the exceedingly helpful dancing spawn of ungoliant and trust to her judgment; considering how very helpful she has been to you all.


Again, I can't help but come across as annoying, pedantic and exasperated when I defend myself. But this wave of suspicion has me somewhat perplexed.

More soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All you have, Spawn, is the 'feel' of my posts, and I can hardly argue against that. However:

Trying to disregard your points? No: I have answered them all (I think).

'If other villagers think Eomer is helpful it means I can't suspect him?' Um, what? What are you talking about? Classic example of taking anything I say and twisting it to make me look bad. Other villagers have said that I've made a couple of good points: that's fact. Why are you trying to make this look as if I'm shoving you away? I welcomed your questioning.

Fake smile? Whatever. I'm one of the more excessive smiley users on the Barrowdowns.

Difference between suspicion and accusation, does this block the essence of your theory? The 'essence of your theory' Spawn, is that I haven't really suspected anyone. I answer this by saying that I have only accused one person (Lhuna) but have suspected others. This is the entire crux of the matter. Your theory rests on that point because it is the major point — the essence of the theory, if you will. That is why it is contrived and false. Yes it has a couple of attractive whistles and bells, but the theory itself is contrived.

About saying that there was 'selectivity in your choice of target', that was a clumsy way of saying that you could have made such accusations about a number of villagers. Which I hold to, and I will post evidence later today.

Spawn, how's this for knee-jerk? I think I'll be voting for you today. Hopefully we can at least dispell this theory that you and I are working together. Why will I vote for you? Think of the word 'hypocrisy', and also consider what effect your rather weak case against me has had today.

Oh my Lord, he's so shrill.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer is still looking wolvish to me, and because my time is rather limited toDay, I must just complete my case against him instead of taking a wider look at the village which is a pity. Well, anyway:

#193 - Eomer's first reactions to my case. He's appearing friendly...

"Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good! "

... and seems to be trying to disregard the points I made of him.

"I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank)."

If some other villagers think that Eomer is helpful, it means that I can't suspect him of being a werewolf? Then he asks me to check out the differences between suspecting and accusing.

"Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me. " ~Eomer

Well, looks more like a fake smile to me, because this is what happens when I go on and say that I might vote for him:

#200 - "To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false."

Eomer is taking attention away from the essence of my theory by clinging to his belief that I've confused the words 'suspect' and 'accuse'. Just because of that, he tries to say that my whole theory is totally contrived and false.

#205 - "I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result."

Actually, I can't think of any and that's why I wanted to analyse him in the first place. Can you, Eomer, give me an example?

"I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today."

What's this, then? Something that begins with the word 'knee' and ends with the word 'jerk'? I thought I was welcome to question you... my mistake.

"Has anyone investigated you yet?"

Not much, really. I remember you saying earlier that maybe tar-a and I might be worth keeping an eye on, but you left it at that.


I'm also concerned of tar-ancalime. As Nilp said, her vote for Eomer might have been a wolf voting for another. She is excellent at wiggling herself out of tricky situations (like the flip-flop accusation) and that's why I'm still worried. I also disagree with Sauce on the significance of Holby's vote in this matter. If tar-a is a wolf, maybe she got scared that Holby was the Seer and had dreamed of her and the wolves wanted to take her out before she could dream more. Nightly kills aren't always frame-ups. However, I don't have time for analysing her toDay, so that's it about her.

I'll be back at least to vote (most likely for Eomer), but I try to come to talk with you before that if I only can.

[The Saucepan Man]

I haven't got a lot of time, so just a quick response to some points that have been raised for now.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

I do not expect "innocent" status, as you call it, and as far as I am aware I haven't been granted it. I expect my contributions to be examined and analysed, just as all villagers' contributions should be. But I think that it is rather unfair of you to make me accountable for how others react to me. Indeed, your whole case against me (if it can be called that) relies on what others have done - the Wolves have not killed me and I seem to be low in some people's suspicions.

Originally Posted by Garin

What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

Yes, and statistically you are unlikely to be a Wolf. But statistics can be wrong. Please, judge me on my actions in this village, not my past lives.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust.

Not arbitrary, but less decisive. All that Seer talk, and the encouragement of it, was one of the few things that we had to go on on Day 1, and it was a factor in my mind on Day 2 too. But, as time wears on, more factors are coming to light which makes it less important as an indicator of possible guilt. It remains one of my reasons for suspecting you, though.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Back later with my thoughts on everyone.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me.

++littlemanpoet

[Boromir88]

I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.

I regret using the term . I think everybody is seeing somebody "backing down" from their suspicions and terming it flip-flop. (Which I have to see who's doing it and think that such loose use of the word is rather wolfish).

Backing away from suspicions from someone isn't a flip-flop here, you're bound to go back and forth through Werewolf. It's the reversals of going a long with public opinion that I think is flip-flopping and most suspicious. Not because you are able to understand the reasoning of your "suspected/accused" person(s) and therefor don't see them as suspicious as you at first did. Being tunnel-visioned (:ahem: Garin ) and going after a soul person until he is lynched is something that I've never embraced....But I guess we all bring our own ways of doing things, which makes it of course interesting.

Garin, I will say, with your suspiciouns, you are way off track and it will only hurt the village if you are indeed an innocent villager because if I'm lynched (not saying I particularly feel I will) you will probably be lynched the day after.