Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Garin]

I am going to stand by my vote. I am indebted to him because he suddenly failed to list me as a suspect. Interpret this as you must.

I stand by my suspicions and shall vote now.

I must leave the Downs until the reckoning hour.

++ Boromir

[Anguirel]

So far...

Glirdan voted for Lhuna

Nilp voted for Anguirel

Lhuna voted for LMP

Celuien voted for Garin

tar-ancalime voted for Garin

Farael voted for Aiwendil

Garin voted for Boromir

Which leaves me in a spot-stick to my guns and vote Boromir, dieing in the last ditch as it were, or fluctuate and vote Lhuna as I've been considering? I too will have to depart in an hour at most...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I might not be back later.

++LHUNARDAWEN

I gave my reasons yesterday and they remain worthy. I will show her no mercy despite her plea for friendship. My dear princess, you and I shall always be enemies within Werewolf, I fear.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good!

It's true that I haven't been overly suspicious of many villagers, but I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank).

I raised suspicion against Farael, Farael's explicit defenders, and Mormegil before the LMP controversy (by the way, spawn, check out the differences between suspecting and accusing—it comes in useful when talking about this game).

Also, I did explain why I found Formendacil slightly tricksy yesterday (I just didn't repeat today). And I don't know what you mean by calling me 'insecure'.

Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good!

If you're innocent: my pleasure. However, to me it makes you look 'not so good' and as a stubborn person, I might vote for you toDay.

I would have made the case meaner, but I didn't have time.

Suspect, v.t. 1. Have an impression of the existence or presence of (danger, a plot, foul play, collusion, a casual relation); half believe to be (I ~ him to be my brother, a liar, dying); be inclined to think that or that (I ~ you once thought otherwise; also paranth., as you, I ~, don't care).
2. Incline to mentally accuse of or inculpate, doubt the innocence of, distrust, (I ~ him of lying, of deep designs; a ~ed criminal, person ~ed of being one; ~ed persons; the ignorant ~ everybody).
3. Hold to be uncertain, mistrust, doubt the genuineness or truth of, (~ the authentityof the evidence). Hence ~ABLE a. (rare). [ME, f. L suspect- (foll.)]

Accuse, v.t. 1. Charge with a fault, indict, (person), whence p.p. as noun, the ~ed; blame, lay the fault on, (person or thing, as the times); ~e as offender, of offence.
2. Point to (subj. evidence etc., obj. a person). Hence ~'ER (-z-) n., ~'ingLY (-z-) adv. [ME acuse f. OF acuser f. L AC(cusare f. causa CAUSE)]


Right. I'll be back with my vote soon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false.

[mormegil]

I'm finally back and caught up on all reading. Man there is a lot of talk going on!

Anyway I remain suspicious of LMP and may vote for him today, however Spawn brought up an excellent arguement against Eomer that has me thinking. I see the the Lhuna train is gaining steam and I'm inclined to view her as more suspicious now than a couple of hours ago.

Something about Anguirel still strikes me as odd though. Farael's arguement against Aiwendil is making some sense too, much more than yesterday's day arguement. Is it enough to sway my vote? Not yet but I would like to hear more tomorrow about it.

I think I will hold off on voting for a bit and see where things go because I'm inclined to vote for either Lhuna or LMP over others at this point.

[Boromir88]

Well I'm back a bit early which is a good thing, now I got all this reading to do. To kind of post on what I've skimmed through and I'll go back through for further insight...

I can't understand these gathering votes for Garin. I did remark that he has seemed rather unsure and "goes with the flow" but if that's his style (as this is my first game with him) then really I don't see a particular strong reason to suspect him.

I will make a compromise with Sauce and say it's likely a wolf voted for me or Gil-galad this includes:

Glirdan
Anguirel
Formendacil
Mormegil
Kath
Celuien
Garin
lmp

For a lack of substantial evidence I am going to take out Glirdan and Kath for today.

It appears Celuien, Formendacil, Anguirel, and Mormegil will avoid the noose today.

Leaving Garin and lmp. I am more confident in lmp's guilt then Garin's but I still find myself hard to pull that platform from underneath either of them. If I'm faced with having to decide between those two, I'll vote for lmp.

Lhuna isn't on the list, and I'll read through before I make a final decision on Tar-ancalime. But Lhuna or lmp will either get my vote today.

Now it's time to get some reading done!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer, is it this line that bothers you?

"No real suspicion in any direction that would make his hands dirty." ~spawn #190

To me it looks that you mildly suspect someone, but then take you suspicions back, start asking others' opinions or start hesitating = no real suspicion. That's how it seems.


Where's Kath? She has quite a few posts to read if she intends to come back toDay.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm debating with myself whether to vote for Princess Lhuna or Eomer.

ToDay a few things in Lhuna's behaviour have seemed wolvish. She had these theories that there would be a connection between Anguirel and Glirdan or that Farael would be the Hunter. However, she says that her opinions shouldn't be taken too seriously. Maybe it was a joke that I didn't get, but that looked weird to me. Also, the thing that she didn't really answer Glirdan's questions about her vote worries me. The 'answers' she gave were presented in a joking manner, which directed the focus away from the fact that she really didn't give any answers. The problem is that that kind of acting belongs to her occupation...


The votes are:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

I don't want to put Lhuna that far up in the lead at this point, so I'll stick to my case against Eomer. Besides, as a priest he'll forgive me if I'm wrong, but I'd better not mess with a royal.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not really sure what dancing spawn is asking from me so I'll say this: I suspect everyone. That's right. There are three wolves in this village and they could be anyone for all I know.

Yes, I have suspected some people and then taken it back: It's a method called querying someone and then gauging reaction. Yes, I have asked other people's opinions: that's called interacting with the village. Yes, I have 'hesitated' (or whatever you want to call it): that's due to a lack of certainty, because I — like everyone else in this village — have no knowledge of the roles of other people. And yes, I have mildly suspected some people: I trust that most other people have mild suspicions too.

'Real suspicion' is apparently an unattainable ideal according to this lady. And I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result. I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today.

Has anyone investigated you yet?

Good night.

[littlemanpoet]

I'm back from the silver smithy at last, and have all of page 5 plus to read before I vote. I may be skimming a bit.

I did notice that Lhuna voted for me, which at this juncture I find quite an interesting reaction to my suspicion of her. Trying to shut me up before I can get others to notice your wolfishness?

I still suspect Garin Boromir, but am less suspicious of Formy. Now to read.....

EDIT: My mistake, her vote came much earlier than my suspicion of her; I hadn't seen that post until just a few minutes ago. I have lots of catching up to do. Again.

[littlemanpoet]

I see SPM's post #250 addresses some of the same things I've been finding.

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil


The following individuals are probably innocent, based on their less than thoroughgoing contributions.

Probably innocent:
Celuien (reasoned and helpful - the seer issue is a red herring)
Farael (forthright and trying to do his part)
Formendacil (harder to say, but his defense for Day 1 voting seemed reasonable and persuasive)
Glirdan (started to seem suspicious at first, but began to seem more helpful and contributing)
Kath (on the strength of believing in me)
Mormegil (I would have him on the 'clearly' list except that he accused for one person then voted for another on Day 2)

That leaves three individuals about whom I have not been able to conclude clear or probable innocence:

Suspicious:
Garin
Eomer
Nilpaurion Felagund

1. Whom have the known innocents suspected besides each other?

Lhunardawen: Garin, Tar-ancalime (2)
Anguirel: Boromir (2)
Holbytlas: Tar-ancalime (1)

This was not as helpful as I had hoped.

2. Who has defended whom? ....are there any patterns?

Celuien gives a reasoned defense of Aiwendil against Farael. The defenses are all reasoned. Not much help here.

3. Who has accused whom? .... are there any patterns?

Yes. The primary pattern is that the werewolves have been able to avoid the spotlight because of all the accusations flying. The werewolves, I believe, have not accused anybody. Except for in one case: Spawn's post # 190, in which she sifts through Eomer's words, revealing a lot of dicey stuff. See point 9 below.

4. Who has voted for whom? .... any patterns?

-Eomer's Day 1 vote for Lhuna came 2nd after the trusted SPM's; safe - meanwhile his reasoning is, shall we say, dubious. Eomer's Day 2 vote for Lhuna also came 2nd, after Glirdan's.
-Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.
-Nilp voted for Farael on Day 1. It is likely that one of the werewolves did cast the first and only vote for someone. On Day 2 Nilp voted for the innocent and now killed Anguirel. Having voted during the Day for the man you decide to kill that Night is perhaps a potentially costly mistake.

5. Who has suspected someone then backed off? Why?

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

6. Who has built up a case against someone then switched to vote for another?

Mormegil built up a case against me on Day 2 then voted for the known innocent Lhuna. However, he has otherwise shown himself to be a helpful villager, contributing in his usual in depth fashion.

7. Who has tried to appear helpful without being?

Eomer. See point 9.

8. Who is riding others' waves?

No one enough, not even my three suspects, except perhaps in voting.

9. Who is playing both sides against the middle?

-Garin, as I have described earlier.
-Eomer: "I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." "Formy but probably not Formy." "Morm but probably not Morm; please explain, sir." See Spawn's post #190.

10. Who's choices for innocent and suspicious seem dubious?

-SPM's and Celuien's suspicion of Tar's vote of Eomer seems a bit dubious.
-Eomer's suspicions of Spawn, Tar, and Morm seem dubious ... to me; for those individuals seem reasonable, helpful, and innocent.
-Glirdan's post #
130 looks rather suspicious, especially in retrospect. Lhuna is "Definitely at the top of my list." .... to lynch? That is my only suspicion against Glirdan.

11. Who asks questions the answers of which help the werewolves?

Aiwendil in post # 7, question #1; answers to this question aid the werewolves in knowing what not to do. On the other hand, his other 2 points are good ones.

12. Who defends self too much?

-Celuien's "joking" defense against Morm's random accusations, placing the eye of suspicion on tar & Ang (who is innocent)
-Me.
-Eomer's defense (in post # 205) against Spawn's accusation (#190) seems rather shrill.

General observations.

1. Nilp is not suicidal; that in itself is suspicious!

2. Eomer's assertion that werewolves are going to be timid is mildly suspicious, and effectively countered by the innocent Anguirel.

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

4. SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust. (EDIT: sorry, just noticed this is duplicated by point # 8)

5. When people are accused/suspected by more than one fellow villager, the likelihood of "getting defensive" seems to increase exponentially with each additional suspector. This is human nature. We should be more suspicious of someone who is too smooth.

6. Aiwendil's suspicions of tar-ancalime call into question my general sense that she's trying to do her part as an innocent. I still think he's reading too much into her posts, because she has contributed solid discussion.

7. Boromir's post #113 is solid, very solid. We all would do well to 'textbook' it for the rest of this holocaust....except for his suspicions of me, of course.

8. It's looking clearer and clearer to me that the "seer" discussion as a litmus test is a red herring and should be treated as such, especially since I find those in Boro's post #116 list as the top suspects in that regard, not to be very suspicious at all.

9. Nilp's post # 123 analysis of Day 1 vote looks reasonable on the surface, but seems flimsy upon retrospect.

10. I have never found the voting record by itself to be a persuasive tool for judging guilt or innocence, at least not until very late in the game, because there are simply too many possible variables and reasons for a person to vote for someone else, especially those "most incriminating" votes. Frankly, it seems that SPM's public service to the rest of us is more a mind-game he does for the fun of it than being useful; how many times as he been accurate in his resulting suspicions based on those voting record deductions?

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents.

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

[Anguirel]

I have a feeling that was a cross post! Little did Eomer know of the gathering storm-clouds...

Well, I'm going to vote with him anyway. I fear that pursuing Boromir, like chasing some mythical stag, will only bring dissatisfaction, wistfulness and mystery if public opinion remains swayed by his sane solidity.

Flay me if you like, but as a villager my job is essentially composed of hanging. Therefore-though it feels cowardly-I'd rather vote for someone who's likely to swing. And if I'm wrong I'll jolly well take the blame...

So, Your Royal Highness, with all due respect, I hope your mystery will be solved at the end of a rope's end!

++THE PRINCESS LHUNARDAWEN

I propose that our outdated feudal monarchy be replaced by oligarchical rule by the merchant and banking elite. Viva la revoluzione!

Oh, and death to those wolf types too, if possible...

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, there has been a lot to review and I can do no better than give my thoughts on each villager as I have been reading through today’s contributions.

Farael: I am not sure what to make of his obsession with Aiwendil. I thought that his case yesterday was weak and based largely on a mischaracterization of what Aiwendil had said. But he brings up some stronger points today. Aiwendil is indeed looking “suspiciously reasonable”. Farael comes across to me as either an innocent behaving like a dog with a bone (albeit possibly a valid bone) or a Wolf who has chosen to be single-minded and thereby avoid suspicion. Difficult to tell which and, since he has only really focused on Aiwendil, there is not much else to go on.

Mormegil: Seemed unusually restrained yesterday, but has been more reassuringly vocal today (or earlier today, at least). I am wary of his vote for Gil though, as Gil was an easy target for a Wolf yesterday and an easy “mistake” to explain away today. Although it by no means sealed Gil’s fate, his was the vote that promoted Gil as a candidate for the noose. As for today, he made a very strong accusation of littlemanpoet at the outset, and then backed off quite considerably when lmp responded (#148). Was this because he saw the suspicion of lmp mounting and was concerned about being implicated in the lynching of a useful innocent? That of course depends on whether lmp is innocent, and I am most certainly not convinced that he is. Quite the contrary.

Aiwendil: I remain concerned over his involvement in the Seer talk yesterday. His other contributions, yesterday and today, had come across to me as sensible and helpful. But Farael has made some valid points about him seemingly taking few risks and keeping his options open. Still keeping a close eye on him.

Glirdan: I haven’t seen anything to alter my assessment that his first day Gil vote was an unlikely vote for a Wolf. As was his vote for Lhuna, a possible candidate for lynching today. Not much else to go on, as he only really dealt with Lhuna in his contributions today. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicious in itself.

Formendacil: Well, I am prepared to buy his explanation of his vote for Boro for now. It looks to have been a sensible vote at the time he voted. Not much else to go on, really.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant: Still talking sense. Which still makes me wary of her.

Nilpaurion Felagund: Still innocent. Probably.

Lhunardawen: I suspected her enough to vote for her yesterday because of her vote for Glirdan, an easy target, and her reaction to his suggestion to lynch the quiet ones. She is implicated by Holby’s death. Holby suspected her, but not strongly enough to mark out a clear trail of blood from Holby’s corpse to her door. And she seems overly defensive about her time-zone malady, the problems of which I think we all know and understand by now. Her vote for lmp went along with the general feeling about him at the time, but it could be a risky vote if he is lynched and turns out innocent. Still, I already have her down for a bold Wolf if she is one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Eomer of the Rohirrim: Not really sure what to make of Eomer. He has been present, but I don’t really get much of a sense about him from what he has said. Which, as spawn has said, might be regarded as suspicious. Not enough to draw any firm conclusions on yet, but I would prefer to see more substance from him.

Littlemanpoet: Still suspicious for his contributions to the strategy discussion yesterday (particular the Seer talk, which was bad, elempi, as it diverted us from our proper focus – finding Wolves) and for his aggressive pursuit of Boro. Has had a good rant today and comes across as overly defensive, but that’s standard practice for him. Then again, that’s the way I would expect him to behave if he is a Wolf. One thing strikes me, though. If, as you say, you are consciously trying to act slightly suspicious, why act so prickly about being suspected? Still high on my suspect list.

Kath: I don't think that we’ve heard from her today. Her vote for Gil, putting him ahead of the others on two votes, is suspicious and could have been an attempt to save a fellow Wolf (Lhuna perhaps). My initial reaction was to view her silence as suspicious but I am not so sure on second thoughts, as staying quiet in this village is akin to drawing attention to oneself.

Garin: Problem with Garin is that he always looks suspicious and always places suspicious votes. But he seems a bit “all over the place” to me today. Declaring that only a fool would vote to lynch him, yet acting suspiciously all the same. Suggesting that the False Seer should give up dreaming. Speculating that a Wolf might try to declare as the False Seer, which would surely be suicide for a Wolf. It doesn’t add up. But our baker seems to me to be an intelligent fellow so, if he is a Wolf, his mind isn’t on the job. I somehow doubt that he is, though.

Anguirel: Calm, cool and collected. Which is precisely how I would expect a Wolf to behave. My suspicions of him are growing, but it’s just a “gut feeling” at the moment, so not enough to warrant a vote. He did explain his vote for Boro well, but he has been keeping the pressure on Boro today (while not voting for him, I notice), and I am inclined to think Boro innocent.

Celuien: Her attempt to deflect morm’s random accusation yesterday still strikes me as suspicious. Looking back, I see that her involvement in the Seer talk was not as great as I had recalled. But the speculation on whether a Wolf might impersonate a Seer looks awfully like the way a Wolf might think, and not to catch a Wolf either. And totally unnecessary, as it was a hypothetical situation. Has kept active today without really saying much that is helpful. Not sure what to make of her vote for Garin, though. Could be risky, if he’s innocent (and I am inclined to think that he is). Nevertheless, she’s still looking suspicious in my eyes.

Tar-Ancalime: The fact that Holby voted for her yesterday and then died overnight still inclines me to view tar as innocent. She has explained her switch from her suspicion of dancing spawn, although the random vote still looks strange. So, not completely in the clear, but I’m viewing her as innocent for now.

Boromir88: The main thing that concerned me about Boro was his claim that he had no choice but to vote for Gil. However, I have a feeling that he was telling the truth when he said that he thought a double lynching was on the cards. Other than that, he seems to have talked good sense today. I am inclined to trust him, for now.

To summarise:

Main suspects: mormegil, Lhunardawen, littlemanpoet, Celuin.

Although, if lmp’s a Wolf, I doubt that mormegil or Lhuna are. And vice versa.

Making me nervous: Farael, Aiwendil, Anguirel

Just don’t know: Formendacil, Eomer, Kath, spawn

Probably innocent: Glirdan, Nilp, Garin, tar, Boro

And now I must cast my vote. The thing is, if lmp’s a Wolf, I will be feeling a lot more comfortable about mormegil and Lhuna, two of my other main suspects. On the other hand, if he’s innocent, then they are looking distinctly Wolfish.

So it seems to me that finding out one way or the other will be most instructive. Sorry if that sounds callous, but there you have it.

++ LITTLEMANPOET

[Anguirel]

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle! I must remember to come back and investigate it if things go awry these evening. The inclusion of Nilp makes me particularly nervous. Ah well. Dionysus and Minerva call. Later, later...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

What an extraordinary list of probable innocents you have, my Lord Kettle!

Well, I have said why I am currently inclined to view them as innocent. As I said, they are to my mind probable innocents as matters stand. I am pretty sure about Nilp, though. If I am wrong, I will be paying an impromptu visit to the Phillippines with a very sharp stick ...

[Aiwendil]

If I've not miscounted, the votes now stand thus:

Lhunardawen: 3
Anguirel: 1
Littlemanpoet: 2
Garin: 2
Aiwendil: 1
Boromir: 1

As I've said, the two I'm most wary of toDAY are Formendacil and Garin. The number of votes against Boromir yesterDAY is just too strange for it to be wholly innocent, in my opinion. I'd wager that one of the four who voted for him - Anguirel, Form, Garin, or LMP - is a Wolf.

For reasons I've discussed, I'm inclined to keep LMP around for the moment. And Anguirel's vote from yesterDAY still doesn't look as suspicious to me as the subsequent votes.

So I'm in favour of lynching Garin or Formendacil toDAY. Which means that I'll probably vote for Garin, since Form doesn't look likely to be lynched. However - I'm not voting yet just in case a few votes for Form do accumulate (I know that a few people have mentioned that he looks suspicious). If it starts to look like there's any real chance that Form will be lynched, I will have to go back and study Garin's and Form's posts more closely, to determine which of them is more likely lupine.

Just to let my fellow villagers know where I stand at this point.

[Aiwendil]

Post 22 - Tar-ancalime's infamous "moratorium on Seer talk" proposal. She says:

I'd like to propose a moratorium on Seer talk--we can't know who is true until one of them dies, and the longer we wait the more information we'll get. So let's play as though neither of them is here.

In post 35, she responds to Lhunardawen thus:

While it's always wise to suspect those who disagree with me (and it's a method I often employ, in Gaurhoth as in life), I wouldn't go that far here, Lhuna. I don't want to create any kind of cut-and-dried loyalty-oath-like environment: those are the easiest situations for wolves to wriggle out of.

YesterDAY, I said this looked like a wolf maneuvering. I still think it could be. But as I read and consider post 22 more carefully, it seems to me that it could just as easily - perhaps more easily - be nothing more than what it is at face value. That is, that Tar never intended the "moratorium" to be a platform from which to begin a wolf-hunt.

Post 44 - Agrees with SPM that too much seer talk can only help the wolves. But then says that early seer talk might be helpful later. One might call this a flip flop (eh, Farael?). But, though I think Tar does mildly contradict herself here, it doesn't seem a particularly Wolvish tactic in this case.

What worries me more is from later in this post:

Something about dancing spawn's post really rubs me the wrong way. It's so long, so intricate, and so devoid of any new information. Being as it's the first day and all, and as my vote is going to have to come in the next few hours, unless I see anything that compels me to place my vote elsewhere I'm likely to go with the dancing spider.

I can see nothing in the analysis by Dancing Spawn to which Tar was responding that suggests wolvishness. Surely we're all familiar with the "go through the villagers one by one" style of discussion - so what's so strange about it here? Tar's comment still looks to me like it could be a Wolf's attempt toget some suspicion rolling against Spawn.

In the next few posts, no one seemed particularly inclined to agree that Spawn's analysis was suspicious. And in post 50, Tar backs off:

dancing spawn, you had me at "gather my thoughts." I can certainly understand that, and while my vote today is going to be somewhat random no matter what, I would rather not cast it for you.

This is just the move I'd expect from a wolf when a subtle attempt at casting suspicion has failed.

Then we have Tar's vote for Eomer. As others have observed, this could be a random DAY 1 vote. And of course "it was a random DAY 1 vote" is the perfect cover for a wolf.

Post 124 - Tar suspects something wolvish may have been going on in the Boromir campaign. Here, I'm in complete agreement with her. Which makes me wonder a bit whether I'm being duped. But in my opinion there definitely was something strange about the Boromir campaign, so it seems perfectly innocent to comment on it.

Post 161 - Defends herself against various suspicions. Not much to go on here.

Post 172 - Agrees with Eomer that "the four most likely suspects for the day" seem to be Garin, LMP, Boromir, and she herself. She doesn't see anything particularly suspicious about LMP or Boromir; against she defends herself; she says that Garin seems to be deliberately obscuring things and then votes for him.

While I disagree about LMP not being suspicious, I do quite agree about Garin. This seems like either the well-reasonsed argument of an innocent or a wolf playing it somewhat safe.

So, where does this leave me? For what it's worth, Tar isn't looking as suspicious to me anymore. The only point that still sticks out, in my opinion, is the abortive attack on Spawn. Tar is definitely still worth keeping an eye on, but I don't think she's as likely to be a wolf as Garin or Formendacil.