Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Garin]

Tar says: Formendacil has already explained his vote; Anguirel's I'm ready to assume was largely random and for the sake of "spread;" but I'd like to hear more from lmp and Garin about their votes. Especially Garin, in light of this:

I see an alliance of wolves in the mix. Why are you so concerned about my vote for Boromir?

It was the first day, and who says I will vote the same way? Boromir is not a proven innocent... unlike Gil.
My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

I explained that I had little time to listen to our fellow villagers and quickly perused their comments. I could just as easily be questioned for getting on a Lhuna bandwagon or killing an innocent Gil. I evened things up, as I said, to examine the last minute votes and posts.

I hope to explain why I found Boro's posts suspicious, but I must go now. I have less time for village than I hoped, kill me if you must.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Let me die at the claws of wolves. I am but a simple baker and want to go out with a little drama. Baking bread all day... my forefathers all died of yeast infections. (It was a horrid demon yeast.)

[Garin]

Sorry for the double post, but we must also look at those who made safe votes for those not in the race to be lynched.

edit: cross-posted, it wasn't a double post.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by aiwendil

So Form is still most definitely still on my suspect list. Garin's vote looks even more wolfish - which, of course, simultaneously makes him seem less and more suspicious. Garin may be a bold wolf trying to save a comrade (assuming one of the other lynch-candidates at that point was a wolf) or simply trying to force Gil's death.

Fair enough... I'm not guilty, of course, but I've no problems with being on the suspicion list. As LMP said about himself, being suspicious is usually a good survival tactic, so long as it doesn't go too far. And as Morm noted in another game, I rather like living on the edge in here...

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

So that's who I'm looking at. My three main suspects are thus: Mormegil, Formendacil, & Boromir. Yikes! Now there's a strong werewolf team! Heaven (or the Valar, Valinor, and all the rest of ye merry saints and angels, or whatever mythic paraphernalia we adhere to in this village) help us!

Egads! What a nightmare! Boromir and Mormegil agree with me often enough outside this game, but with these games I find myself butting heads with them more often than not....

Originally Posted by Garin

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Interesting comment here... a veiled reference to being a Gifted? A simple, Innocent, statement? Or a Werewolf's ploy? Definitely a phrase to remember...

Now, for a few comments regarding the False Seer and his/her dreams...

You do realize, of course, that even if the False Seer reveals themselves, they don't necessarily have to tell us the truth regarding who they dreamed about! If they had strong suspicions regarding who was innocent and who was guilty, all they would have to do is change the names around, and no one would be the wiser. And, if the False Seer was an insightful player, there's no reason why their guesses couldn't be even more accurate than the false answers.

That said, I agree that the only value of the False Seer is a proven innocent. However, I've never seen any indication that proven innocents are useful before Day 4 or 5- when they can become a rallying point for a shrunken village. That said, I would caution the False Seer to wait a couple days before coming forth, but if they choose to do so now, they can at least rest assured that the Ranger can protect them for a night...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[No anagrams there. Well, maybe there is. ]

Okay, voting time.

Of lmp . . . I remember my (and his) first game, where he was a Werewolf. He wasn't so aggressive then, I think, until the later DAYs. I don't know why I said that, but someone might find this amusing. Or helpful, though I rather doubt it.

He's very defensive, but then again, I think I'm the only one who doesn't go über-defensive when under intense suspicion.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?

tar-ancalime's 'random' vote is still troubling, although since it was DAY 1, it could have been pure randomness. She's still very much suspicious, but I will not vote for her toDAY.

Garin is Garin is Garin. Is flip-floppy and somewhat confusing. Is Garin. Again, my eyes are on him, but I will not clamour for his hanging.

Formendacil, based on the only game I've played with him, seems to imitate me ( ) on DAY 1s, being somewhat kooky and all. If he has fangs I think someone will see it later. For now, you're safe.

Now, Anguirel. He started the Boromir bandwaggon, with a reason which (to me) seems pulled out of thin air. Or paranoia. Or something. I think he just inflated the shock value of a single post that most of us have ignored. (Maybe it's our fault?) Enedwaith, since he's the one most suspicious to me it seems apt to vote for him.

++Anguirel

[Lhunardawen]

Are you all blind? Or are you simply incapable of utilizing your mental faculties? I said I am a princess. A royal invader girl. Capiche?

But although those who voted for me yesterDay deserve thirty lashes with the whip - if not more -, *sigh* I'm inclined to think they're innocent. Yes, even you, you traitor of a priest-slash-big-brother-slash-promise-breaker. After all, I was, in some way, a bit deserving of votes that Day. And while somehow I'm flattered that you think that a bold princess wolf can pull off what I did then, thanks, but no thanks. I can command a royal anyone to turn me into a wolf if I want to.

One thing I'm just wondering is this: If you thought my vote for Glirdan was a safe vote, don't you think it was an equally safe act to vote for me? A rhetorical question.

I'll be back after reading and pondering on everything that's already been said.

By the way, bravo Wolves. Luck or skill, may you have less of it from this moment on.

Poor Holbytlass! An honorable burial is due her; I shall have it arranged as soon as possible.

[Anguirel]

Thanks Nilp . I hope your theory gathers a little support-it will probably increase my life expectancy rather than the reverse...

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.

What do I mean by saying they seemed sensible, Boromir? Well, actually I said they were constructed to look sensible. They didn't draw much attention by laying out accusations and theories. They contained a large proportion of role-play, not that I'm against that. They just looked...unnoticeable and slight.

Then I said to myself "Wait, Anguirel old chap! You're just about to ignore one of the most devious players in this village! Now, for the sake of argument...what will happen if you shine a light on these posts and their failings by gunning for their author?" So I did. The unnoticeable nature of the posts had backfired. My suspicions struck a chord with many others.

I believe I saw the signs which often tell a cautious, wise wolf. And I'm not willing to back down yet.

On another note, I agree with Aiwendil that the Seer is now of no use but that he or she can "prove" his or her own innocence. However, I've been convinced that he or she should lie low longer till the village is smaller and his/her revelation can be of more use.

[Lhunardawen]

Some incredibly far-fetched theories from Day 1:

(I will laugh hard at those who take any of these TOO seriously.)

1. Anguirel-Glirdan association of some sort. Remember the former's defense of the latter after my vote for him, in which Anguirel used Glirdan's job as the musician? I don't know.

2. Farael's the Hunter. He mentioned the role as a substituent to one of his organic chemicals, and could have been a not-so-subtle Day 1 hint.

3. Suspicious:
Elempi - Talk about a spirited defense! Could be another one of your ancestors' infamous rants, but Elemdoubleyou can certainly pull of being defensive.
Anguirel - The Boromir vote could have been a result of reading too much into one post. Maybe not. Initiating the bandwagon (as it turned out later) is a bold wolf move, but hey, you can manage it. I guess.
Kath and Celuien - Those votes for Gil were TOO safe.
Garin - History would make this doubtful, but Werewolf roles don't have memories.
tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

4. Innocents: SpM, morm, Eomer, Aiwendil, spawn, Boromir88, Glirdan, Farael.

Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload.

Oh., As a lot have said before me, the False Seer is now completely useless as a gifted. I'd advise them to stay hidden for now, though, and just speak up when they're in danger of a lynch.

[tar-ancalime]

tar-ancalime - Flip-flops come to mind.

You know, I don't mind being under a bit of suspicion, but this accusation in particular really rankles. It has been used against me before (in...other villages, also in relation to Day 1 activities).

I think that the people accusing me of...wearing a particular type of sandal...have two things in mind from yesterday:

First, my call for a moratorium on Seer talk. After it was suggested (by Lhuna, I think) that what I really wanted was to suspect anyone who talked about the Seer, I clarified my position: I didn't want to set up a litmus test; I actually don't think talking about the Seer is suspicious; I just think it's counterproductive. That would be the reason for the moratorium: to focus on catching wolves, instead of on other issues. I thought my second post made that clear.

Second, my (admittedly tart) critique of dancing spawn's post. As others have noted, sometimes these "helpful summaries" are nothing but smokescreens for wolves. It's very easy to compile data, write a very long post, and seem to have contributed without actually adding anything new. Having used this tactic myself as a wolf, I was suspicious of dancing spawn's post and I attacked it to see what she would do. Her calm response that she had done it largely to gather her own thoughts (she didn't ignore me, nor did she get defensive), added to the fact that no one else seemed to have a problem with her post, led me to relax my stance. The original post had to be argumentative--how else could I judge the response to it? Leaving out the venom would have guaranteed I'd be ignored.

So please, suspect me all you want--like lmp, I welcome it--but this particular suspicion I don't understand. Especially since in the same post in which she accuses me of flip-flopping, Lhuna writes this:

Of course my position entitles me to a change of mind - a privilege which I might use in a little while, when I've recovered from information overload

Now I know that a princess has certain privileges an ex-leper could never imagine, but I'd like to think I'm just as entitled to change my mind about dancing spawn as she is about anyone else.

[Garin]

1) I suspected Boromir due to his earliest comments. I was able to read all of the posts but not thoroughly and I certainly read the posts concerning and authored by my votee for that day.

2) Memories light the corners of my mind. I found the last minute posts by Boromir wolvish because I have been there. For those who point out my "I felt for the guy" comment as being wolvish, I guess you are conceding that Boromir is a werewolf.

3) I didn't intend to hint that I was a gifted. I am an ordinary baker with not much to live for and really don't care if you lynch me but only for my devotion to the village's success.

4) I think out my decisions but I regret lacking the time to document them to serve and educate the village. I've had last minute things evolve and have nary the time to sit at a computer for too long. Sorry village. I loathe the unhelpful and I'm trying not to be one of them.

5) I currently suspect tar-ancalime and Boromir and truly want to expound but the baking must come first.

As for Celuien. You'd rather be an animal than a respectable trade? Interesting. But I don't have enough suspicion just yet.

Edit: Changed "baking must be come first."

[Lhunardawen]

Probably more sensible thoughts...but still not too much so.

1. Anguirel pointed out a possible (uber-subtle) hint that Holby made with regards to her Seership, and admits that it's very easy to pass over it. Could be an attempt to get to our - the innocents' - side, but could also be a bluff. Trying to be helpful while gloating that "Hehe, we found your Seer. Nyahnyahnyah." I'm sure mormegil's familiar with this theory, aren't you, morm? Wasn't at all accurate the first time it was used, but who said it can't be used again?

2. Speaking of morm...(here we go again)...I find his vote for Gil yesterDay a bit unsettling. A safe vote, yes. And we think, "Whoever said an experienced player like morm can't make a safe vote?" Woosh! and away he goes from the suspect list.

3. Oh. I guess I have to answer Glirdan, right? Hey, a princess like me can be forgetful at times. So, looky here, Glirdy!

Like I said, she jumped at me rather quickly. I have the same timezone illness that you have oh fair one. Now, I know I seem to be attacking you a lot, but I must ask, what made you jump at me so much??

Hey, I didn't jump. Not with these high heels, I can't jump. I went into a dramatic rant to defend myself. There's a difference, if you'll look closely.

Besides, is your timezones as grave and crippling as mine? Nyahnyah.

Now this makes absolutely no sense as has been said on numerous occasions. If you believe that I'm innocent, why go and vote for me and say but what can I do? Well, here's a few suggestions:

~Look carefully through ALL the posts and take what you can from them.

I command you to go back to my posts and count the posts that come before them. I thought that Eomer name sounded suspicious, but I wasn't about to vote for someone I haven't heard from yet. Besides, if you're sure that I'm sure that you're innocent, why do you have to question me for voting for you? Just say you suspect me and be done with it.

~Don't vote for someone, say they are probably innocent and then say "but what can I do?"

I'm the princess. You can't tell me to do anything. Got that, musician?

Besides, it was more the odds I was referring to regarding your innocence, not your behavior.

(I am being positively evil!! )

No, you're being positively impertinent, young man. Don't you know to whom you speak?

4. Suspects: Elem/doubleyoupi, Anguirel, Kath, Celuien, tar-ancalime

Sigh. I'm still quite at a loss and it's time for me to go.

I wanted to give you the benefit of the doubt even for just a Day - plus I know what the Mordor you just went through - but your name attracts the plus signs as Celuien's long sticky tongue attracts flies.

++LITTLEMANPOET

P. S. tar-ancalime, I've utilized my own pair of sandals in this post, so I'll no longer suspect you for using yours. However, you remain suspicious for that Eomer vote. Like Nilp said, it could be a wolf-on-wolf vote. On the other hand, it could be a safe random vote. It just doesn't sit right with me, now that I've thought about it.

[Celuien]

This is somewhat unsettling:

Originally Posted by Garin

My intuition is a wolvish one (see my aforementioned past lives) and I saw plenty of it in Boromir's last minute posts. I understand he was saving his skin, but I remember a couple of times I was in the same furry position. I really felt for the guy.

More later. Let me just say... Only a fool would vote to lynch me.

Too much sympathy for the furry type. And a bit too strong on the 'don't lynch me' warning. It sounds like a variation on the old 'lynch me and you'll be sorry' bit used in desparate attempts to avoid the noose. Also odd since elempi seems to be the ead suspect today, and there are a couple of others (probably including me) ahead of him in the ranking.

Anyway, I'm not comfortable with voting elempi. That spirted defense he gave doesn't seem like something from the wolf-lmp repertoire. Although he could be pulling a bluff...

Lhuna, too, doesn't really seem too wolvish right now. I think she makes some good and interesting points in her last post, though I can't follow her vote.

Tar-a has done a good job of explaning herself, I think.

I'm almost certain Aiwendil, Farael and SpM are innocent. Boro is cleared for now by his switch back to usual practice.

My time runs short. Must leave for fly-catching duty at the frog home manufacturing plant. So...

++GARIN

Hopefully I'll make it back in time to chat some more, but I might not.

[Boromir88]

As for Boromir...too many of you seem to be treating it as though Boromir was lynched and found innocent. This did not occur. He is still as suspicious as ever in my eyes.

I doubt this will change your mind, but you read too far into the post, but you are sticking to your guns, so that makes me think you are innocent. I don't think a wolf would continue to stick to their same reasoning if most of the village seems to think you are looking too hard at things.

I for once am beginning to watch my own back with the people who are going along saying there's nothing to make from the post you accuse me for. Which I agree them, mind you, but I find buttering up very suspicious. I think one wolf has done so (perhaps Celiuen or Lhuna fit this)

I'm sure he'll understand. I just can't afford to ignore the blighter. Once you take your eyes off Boromir's worthy, solid posts, they won't be drawn back again by lustre of shock till it's too late. I observed that even for Day 1-and like Eomer I don't see why Day 1 shouldn't be a day for discussion like any other-his posts were unusually flimsy.

Oh I understand , that was at a time with not much action and simply random accusations/seer talk, which I feel like not getting involved in. Then the one thing I did think was strange (Lhuna's post) I jumped to, then it was work time so I was unable to attend for the rest of the day and after this post I won't be back until late, probably half an hour before voting again.

I fear this DAY 1 would turn into a 'Lynch him!'-'No, lynch him!' between lmp and Boro that would cost us two innocents and enough confusion for the Werewolves to hide behind in. How about we back off for a while here?~Nilp

I agree, it definitely occurs to me that the wolves can be sitting back laughing at us while two innocents want eachother's heads, but you know my feeling on lmp...He's gotten me to think real hard with his posts, as I don't want to jump into an irrational decision.

lmp's post certainly has me thinking, I want to believe him, but I also never want to be dooped and fooled by a wolf...that's part of the reason for my strong feeling on lmp. Though my suspicions on Lhuna and Celuien are rising, they vote for those who are facing a lot of suspicion today...

20, now infamous as your "as usual" post, you built a theme and variations, to a crescendo of "too usual", instilling fear. I picked up on that: "Why is Boromir trying to subtly create an additional level of fear in regard to these other people? What's his game?" And the you added "this false seer scares me" ... there's that fear again. I wondered why. Perhaps Boro is actually a little scared of this situation. But maybe he's setting something up very subtly. Hmmmm! So I concluded that you were at least as suspicious as anybody else on Day 1, and more than most. As I've said before, once I make a decision, I ride it, maybe too hard. There you have it.

Which you are looking too hard at, like Anguirel...so you lessen in suspicion I'll say, but I'm certainly not willing to just believe you and accept you with open arms as you may send me to a horrible death at night!

For the record I actually buy Anguirel and lmp's suspicions on me. It wasn't my intent to cause any fear, but I can see how it looks like I did. My first post I did talk about the past village of Salem, them infamous werewolf trials in that mud hole. I don't see how that constitutes me as being a wolf, but I definitely see what you mean by me thinking I was trying to establish fear. You are wrong, because it wasn't my intent, but I can see how you get that impression.

I am more worried about those who seem to be going with the lmp/boro/anguirel debaucle-(mormegil, Lhuna, and Aiwendil). What I mean it's as if these have attempted to try and get lmp lynched today.

Mormegil starts out the day with this intricate post of the long suspicion of lmp. As I said I doubt a wolf would take such a strong stance of who to go after, and go right after some one, he did know from yesterday's posts that I would be after lmp and Aiwendil said we should look at those who voted for me. So, he did know their were suspicions established on lmp and perhaps this is his attempt to get everything going against him. But, morm has backed down from his suspicions now after hearing lmp, so I don't think him that suspicious as the other two I will mention.

Lhuna puts me in the innocent category and now votes for lmp, seemingly riding on the suspects of others.

Aiwendil has been doing a clever job of keeping fairly away, yet still seems to be egging it on. He doesn't want to commit fully to accusing lmp, but has done a good job of subtelty saying we should look at him.

Celuien as I think I said above, voted for Garin, who may be starting to get the ball dropping on him as suspicions of Garin have grown.

With all this in mind my suspects (in a jumpled no particular order, but who I will most likely be considering my votes for today...)

Lhuna
lmp
Aiwendil
Celuien

Mormegil I'm still unsure about, and because of that I don't want to rashly lynch him yet, especially since he's good to have around.

Eomer and spawn I am expecting more from our scholarly contributers. And unless I've missed something Farael and Kath too have been really quiet.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I have some rereading to do before I post more, but first, here are a few thoughts.

Holby's death. As others have said, she wasn't very clear about her dream. However, as most of you seem to think, I agree that she didn't accidentally blurt out anything that would have given away her role. So, either killing her was a random choice of the wolves or then they were after something.

Here's a little discussion I had with Holby.

Originally Posted by Holby #21

Now not always but it seems suspicious when a person wants to hang someone else that had made an arbitrary or even tacky accusation when everyone else feels that it was in jest. In my experience, sometimes the tattletail had done the worst offense.

(That was her answer to Aiwendil's question no.1)

Originally Posted by Holby #43

True, but what I was trying to explain as another wolvish behavior for example:a third person trying to get Mormegil lynched based solely on his obvious joking-type random accusations to get discussions started, especially if the village as a whole feels what Morm did was harmless-that third person seems wolvish.

First we were talking about general situations in a village, but then she took morm as her example (with the italicized 'obvious'). She could have dreamed of him, but it's not certain. Why, morm might be a wolf who thought it would be convenient to kill someone who has just supported him because it would be so silly that no one in full possession of their senses would suspect him because of that.... I mean... Oh, well. (No, I don't find morm suspicious now.)

Now, there's the framing up option. As some of you should know, it's not always a frame-up if a villager's death clearly points at someone. I wouldn't disregard the possibility that either tar-a or Lhuna could be a wolf who got scared of Holby's suspicions. There were other people, too, suspecting those two, but Holby had been pretty quiet about her opinions of other villagers until the post when she voted, so it didn't leave that many clues.


That's it about Holby. I should probably warn you that I'm going to do a summary again as soon as I can whether you like it or not. If you feel that I'm only summarizing what has happened, read between the lines (both literally and figuratively speaking) and you'll see that my opinions are pretty clearly out there. Oh, and so that no one would feel manipulated by the "long post = poster is innocent, short post = poster is guilty" fallacy, I can divide it into smaller pieces if you want to.