WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

And easy for you to say make a case- you have all my posts for today to go on. Now I could go on your posts, but that would be retailiation, and I could go on Firefoot's post's but he's done nothing suspicious. I notice you haven't looked at my posts from the previous days. Why not?

I daresay a case against you could be made, but you've tied my hands, for to retaliate is death. But to not retaliate is death. Bravo, Nogrod.

[Firefoot]

Okay, this is a style of analysis that I have found helpful in the past - by briefly summarizing and commenting on each post, nothing is taken out of context and patterns become more evident. The problem is that it is only really helpful if there is real substance and amount to people's posts; it didn't reveal much about Eonwe or Elu, but Valier's turned up some interesting things.

Eonwe:

Post 13
Nothing very helpful, nothing particularly wolvish. He scorns Day 1 strategies.

Post 27
Repetition that Day 1 sucks. Once more, nothing here.

Post 49
Votes Jenny on what he calls gut instinct, but at least not randomly. He says she feels like a new wolf to him.

Post 57
He clarifies his vote for Jenny, says that she changes her opinion around too much to fit others’ ideas and suspicions. A repetition that Day 1 won’t be very useful. Okay, I can’t really blame him here since these are similar feelings to what I was feeling about Jenny.

Post 60
One line post, nothing there again.

Post 78
Explains that he had a feeling Lommy would die during the night. Hm…

Post 88
Agrees that Lommy made a lot of sense for the wolves to go after. Says that his suspicions were turning toward Roa and Jenny as they had voted for Wilwa.

Post 96
Continues his reasoning for his suspicions of Jenny, says he intends to vote for her. Says that Folwren, Mith, and myself all look pretty good to him.

Post 99
Explains to Jenny that his suspicion of her is not based on her silence.

Objectively looking at these posts… there really doesn’t seem to be that much there. Nothing to support my suspicions of him anyway. The real founder of my suspicions of him and Nogrod was a possibility of some kind of wolvish alliance, and I haven’t entirely given that up – especially since Nogrod seemed so suspicious of him on into Day 2, but all of a sudden that seems to have gone out the window without any indication of an in-between stage. But other than that, there really isn’t very much there, and what is there seems supportive of his innocence. For the time being, Eonwe is on my emerging in-between list.

Elu:

Post 9
Jokes about were-birds.

[Has computer troubles, does not post again till Day 2]

Post 81
Starts to comment about how he thought Lommy was behaving oddly, then descends into more speculation about were-birds.

Post 84
Says he appreciated my analysis, but that we had to be careful in discriminating fact from bias.

Post 86
Regrets Valier’s inconsistency and frothiness.

Post 90
Although he says that he wouldn’t outright accuse Jenny, he votes for her, mostly for her silence that day, despite her warning. This is irritating but not exactly suspicious.

Once again, there really isn’t anything here. Nothing to prove his innocence or guilt. He’s just sort of all over the place, and Roa’s description in Post 144 is sticking with me.

Valier:

Post 4
“I can’t believe Kitanna is dead!!” pretty well sums up this post.

Post 8
Says we should focus on catching wolves and that people should speak up (but with lots more exclamation points).

Post 34
Says that people who post lengthy analyses tend to get lynched faster and that’s why she doesn’t. This would be extremely harmful to us, and definitely raises warning bells in my head, or it would if it wasn’t accompanied by so many exclamation points and big grin smilies.

Post 39
Says that other people are better communicators than she is, advises against bandwagoning.

Post 41
Votes randomly for Elu because “his music stinks.”

Post 87
See post 4… plus a comment that it’s time to get down to business.

Post 100-101
Analysis: Jenny – probably innocent, maybe cunning wolf; Eonwe – probably innocent, she agrees with most of his posts; Sleepy – she wants to see more of him; Roa – no real opinion, apologizes for frothiness; Nogrod – no real verdict; Elu – she says his posts are weird; Gandalf – she wonders if we shouldn’t just lynch him to be on the safe side in case he’s trying to slip under the radar; Folwren – Valier was rather insulted by her wondering if it was her first time playing, she seems to be getting frustrated at others’ frustrations for her frothiness – I quote: “IT WAS THE FIRST DAY!!!”; Mithalwen – again, no real verdict, says she has nothing to hide. This post sort of has me wondering. It seems innocent enough but what catches my eye is that she only makes a judgment about the people who are not suspicious of her. Also, perhaps by oversight, her list is not complete – I for one am not on it.

Post 103
Complains about how little of substance there is, says she will be voting soon.

Post 106
Says the key players are Mithalwen, Folwren, Roa, and myself. Votes Mithalwen for no apparent reason except that she thinks she is a clever wolf. This seems strange to me, that you would identify key players and then vote for one of them. The loudest people aren’t necessarily the wolves.

Post 116 & 119
Begs us not to kill her. Promises to do a dance if we don’t. This, I think, is a little over the top…

Post 122
“Ok kill me then you will see! I may be a bit "Frothy" but I have no hidden fur!” Maybe, maybe not.

Post 138
Thinks Gandalf should be penalized for not voting two nights in a row. Now she claims that the key players are most often loud innocents – so why the heck did she vote for Mithalwen?? She thinks it’s odd that Mithalwen hasn’t defended herself, even though she has made no real accusations against her except voting randomly. She says it’s important not to make a mistake so we should vote for someone who has posted a fair bit – didn’t she just say that the loud ones were often innocent? Now this is what I would call contradicting. Essentially she seems to be proposing that we lynch the louder ones because they are loud. It reminds me nothing so much as the little story here: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...62&postcount=1 Sorry if that’s slightly irrelevant.

Post 149
Thinks Jenny, Nogrod, me, Elu, and Gandalf are innocent while Eonwe, Mithalwen, and Roa are not. Is very vague about why. In fact, I would really like to know why she finds Mithalwen so suspicious – I have yet to see a reason other than that Mithalwen was the first to call her frothy.

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

I'm not even going to bother doing this for Gandalf - he only has about three insubstantial posts. It may be useful to do with Jenny though.

Oh, and Roa, I'm a she. Also, I'm agreeing very much with what you're saying... Nogrod seems pretty determined right now to paint you as a wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

Well, I agree with you somewhat. She's on my shared third place of suspects. That third is a pair, and I'm really having trouble to wrench over which one. But as I appreciate your analysis, I can't see it more damning that the case of Roa. Indeed, if we look at the style of her writing, she seems more like a quite young and unsure person - what you call ineptness. Look at all those exclamation marks and smiles around... And what comes to her clumsiness, they seem to be differences between first ideas and later opinions. Not actual discrepancies done later in the game, which would count - as I'm counting them on Roa.

But thanks Firefoot. That is exactly what I would like to see more today!

EDIT: Cross-posting with both Firefoot & ROa

[Roa_Aoife]

Will you stop ignoring me!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Will you stop ignoring me!

Was that meant for me? How am I ignoring you: I would think the situation would be on the contrary!

Remember: I cross-posted with your last one!

First we need accusations, then defences. If you think you have a good cover, then you should trust it. If not, don't show your jumpiness in front of the popular verdict...

Sorry about that last one. Just fighting alone makes one desperate!

BTW. I'm really looking forward for Valier to come up with some comments over Firefoot's analysis.

[Roa_Aoife]

then defences. If you think you have a good cover, then you should trust it.

Then why won't you acknowledge the defense I have given? You seem to be rather determined to ignore the proof of my innocense. I think I have more than answered your case, but you don't seem to think so, and I want to know why.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

I'm looking at them all the time - and do have some suspicions. But not good enough to go on expressing them publicly as yet. We need one today, as I said. One. The turn for the others is tomorrow.

Although I guess I have to be a bit more vocal about my other suspicions later on, as we see how this day settles. For I really do think I'm writing my own death-sentence all the time. I'll be awake the next night, but propably won't be a match to a werewolf.

Well. Someone furiously defending his family, quite all alone, against silver-tongued werewolves doesn't exactly look good. He isn't supposed to. He would lose without the attack - and the village would do so too.

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

Remember: all I want, is a better theory. You, or anyone produce it, and I'll vote for it...

[Firefoot]

Nogrod - the trouble with finding a better theory is that in order to make a theory, there needs to be something to make a theory from! You, me, and Roa are the only people who have really posted extensively today. Mithalwen has been active, but there isn't anything very recent. Most of the rest of the people, there just isn't enough to make a theory out of. So unless I chose to pick on either Roa, you, or Mith, there isn't going to be any kind of really substantial theory. What I've picked out on Valier is going to be about as good as it gets, through no fault of mine or anyone else's except the people who don't post. If the villagers lose, it won't be the fault (not wholly) of those who are posting, but of those who are not. It's easy for me to rank the three of you in suspiciousness, but just because Roa might make the best case for a wolf doesn't make her one - the trouble is that a good case can't really be made for those people that I am more suspicious of.

/rant

Anyhow, I'm going to be leaving shortly - in less than a half hour - and probably won't be home for about three hours, unless we decide to go out for lunch like my family was talking about yesterday. So I'm not exactly sure when I'll be back - but I will be back in plenty of time to vote.

Just for clarification - Kitanna, the Day will run a full 24 hours, even though it started about an hour late, correct? Will that extra hour ever get made up somewhere (during a night, I would assume), or will the game just continue running an hour later than it started?

[Roa_Aoife]

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

What? I'm an easy target because my brain was fried before. But you have ignored all of my defenses since you started on my case, so I don't know why you would listen to that one. Why is that? Is it because you know that I am innocent and can't risk acknowledging my own evidence to the case?

You also seem sure that no one will bring a case against you. Why? Because to do that would look like a team-play to everyone else. You have covered your tracks well today.

Edit: Cross post with Firefoot. Sorry for the gender confusion! As I said, my brain is fried.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

But you have ignored all of my defenses since you started on my case, so I don't know why you would listen to that one. Why is that? Is it because you know that I am innocent and can't risk acknowledging my own evidence to the case?

You also seem sure that no one will bring a case against you. Why? Because to do that would look like a team-play to everyone else. You have covered your tracks well today.

To the first one: No. I'm getting more and more confident about your guilt, almost post after post. But it is not my task to prove your innocense, its yours. And then, it's the thing all the villagers have to consider with their one vote each. If I see other villagers' seeing the things under evil-interpretations, I'll surely try to correct it, then. Now I have other things to do: trying f.ex. get some RL things done (but I'll be checking every now and then)

But really about your jumpiness. It's not looking good. The guilt is shining out from your reactions. Sorry: even this is nothing definitive, just one more piece to the pile...

EDIT: seem to have been cross-posting all the time, but this I think answeres your later question too.

For the second one. I'm not at all sure, that no-one would bring a case against me. Quite on the contrary. I do doubt me being alive tomorrow morning, and just hope the innocent villagers don't go killing one innocent this evening, for the next night it definitively will be an innocent one to go.

What you call "covering the tracks" is just having a pure mind and clean tracks to begin with - and then using some brain not to play totally idiotic way to the hands of the wolves. But I am afraid, I do confess this. This looks very, very bad now. And not the least because of us three being the only ones at sight.

[Roa_Aoife]

*frustrated sigh* Now I understand how Shelob felt...

I am afraid I have to go, and I won't be back on till after this day is over. Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

The information provided by Firefoot was very helpful and non-circumstantial. It seems to be the only case that isn't at the moment. I would vote Nogrod, but I don't like being retalitory, and no analysis of him has been presented. I would do it myself, but that goes back to being retalitory.

I wish the village luck, because if I die, you'll be down another innocent, which is exactly what the wolves want. We kill an innocent, and it will be 4-3 by morning. Remember: if there's an even number of wolves and villagers, they win.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I am afraid I have to go, and I won't be back on till after this day is over. Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)! In the case of a draw, we'll be losing her!

I kind of thought of rushing a vote on Roa just to prevent this scenario taking place, but wanted to see first how the discussion goes on. I should have checked her early morning post where she told, when she would have to vote... You can blame my inalertness on this one.

We can't afford ill-opinioned votes any more!

Make your opinions count in this!

[Nogrod]

Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

The information provided by Firefoot was very helpful and non-circumstantial. It seems to be the only case that isn't at the moment.

Note this with my earlier claim that:

I surely understand your jumpiness, because your hands are quite tied now. You know who the innocents are, but can't exactly bring forwards any real accusations, because if they would lead to a conclusion, and that innocent would die, there would be one more nail in your coffin...

So there's the "with nothing else to go on" etc. You cleverly took Firefoot's claim to cover you - well it was about the only option you had... It would have been a miracle, had you voted otherwise...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)! In the case of a draw, we'll be losing her!

Could you explain why you are sure that Valier is innocent? Given that it was a hairs breadth decison for me last night, I would like your reasoning...

[Nogrod]

Just to come forwards with you. I surely underdstand your jumpiness, because your hands are quite tied now. You know who the innocents are, but can't exactly bring forwards any real accusations, because if they would lead to a conclusion, and that innocent would die, there would be one more nail in your coffin...

So let's see, how far will your mates be ready to support you, and when they abandon your ship to save their own skins.

And please, don't accuse me of being unfair. I haven't been the one to make your mistakes...

PS. Still waiting for better theories, although I think this one getting to hold.

EDIT: Crossposted with Roa