Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Formendacil]

It is 1:30 am. I ought to be in bed.

Clearly, however, I am not, and so I am here offering no help whatsoever- and a full 12 hours or so before I'd predicted I'd be doing that.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage.

Ah, but perhaps I have no insightful analysis to offer?

Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we?

Nor are you ever likely to, since I do not deign to share them, and since "they" probably don't exist in the first place...

For what it's worth, I haven't been able to keep up with this game as closely as I have in times past. The adjustment to reading full pages at a time and trying to digest their full meaning... doesn't work for me.

And I'm too lazy to try.

And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched?

No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Yep, that's me: no use at all.

Seriously, I have very little to offer which is new, relevant, or sensible. Other than popping my head in to assure you all that I'm still alive- what else have I to do?

And, incidentally, I am still very much alive.

Now, although it is my avowed intention to be no use whatsoever, allow me to put forward a tidbit of caution regarding the evil Saucepan Man. The Saucepan Man, as we call him, is an uncannily cunning Werewolf player- although often clueless in his guesses as to innocence. Possessed of the talent of persuasion, he is renowned for his ability to sway the village in favour of his candidate- wisely or not. However, thus far, this ability has always been coupled with an Innocent Demeanor.

Therefore, if the Saucepan Man is infact the Saucepan Wolf what else could he do but play as he always has- lest the villagers sense the change and lynch him?

However, it seems me that he came on a good deal stronger in this game than in those previous, hitting the ground running, so to speak, with typical Day 1 babble about his occupation: Day 1 babble that basically said "I'm a lawyer, so let me be in charge".

As already noted, both Mormegil and the Saucepan Man, who are perhaps the two villagers best known for cunning and noisemaking, are not dead. Is this perhaps a sign of Werewolfishness?

I remain, foolish villagers, uncertain of anything. But I agree that there are completely valid reason for looking closer at the Saucepan Man.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Wow. Seriously, guys...

Bandwagoning. In this village the person who gets the most votes is lynched. In order to get the most votes, the lynchee has to be voted by a majority. In the end of a day, there has to be some kind of a majority voting for a villager or otherwise we're all dead after Day 1, and therefore it's ridiculous to call every cluster of votes a 'bandwagon'. Those who have no opinions on their own are the ones to do the bandwagoning (with possible wolves). Those who have their own theories about what's going on in this village do not bandwagon despite in whatever way they vote since they have another reason to do it than that someone just seems to be getting votes anyway.

Let's assume we have a bandwagon against an ordinary villager. Who is responsible for the death of an innocent? Every one of us has only one vote, so a single villager can't get anyone lynched by him/herself. Take responsibility for your vote! If you're too lazy to make your own mind about things and we lynch an innocent, you can blame yourself. And in that case, maybe this village life isn't made for you in the first place. Sure you wouldn't be happier somewhere else, like in Rivendell where you can just sit back and have fun as much as you want to?

Swaying. If it bothers you, don't be swayed.

(I'm not saying that we would have some villagers who tried to manipulate others, but since it seems to be pretty hard to change that fallacy - ooh, would that be swaying, too - I leave it at that.)


Anyone who votes Sauce because of "swaying" looks pretty bad in my eyes now. I'll be back with more thoughts as soon as I can, but unfortunately I'm today pretty much caught up with violin concertos and vocal fugues... I mean, daisies and lilies. I'll try my best, though.

ps. Sorry about the rant, but I mean what I said.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I believe that saucemanpoet . . . I mean, The Saucepan Man is innocent.

Why? Because I notice things. Things ordinary people wouldn't notice. Yeah, yeah, you might think, 'Are you the Seer?' and all such nonsense. I'm not, okay? I just read carefully.

I now strongly believe that the intention of the Werewolves in killing noncommitting Aiwendil and semi-silent Valier is to force a lynching of the loudmouths during the DAY. It's elegant, perhaps a bit farfetched, but there are already two votes for the only loudmouth I trust so far. Wow.

I mean, all of us here have played at least one Werewolf game. We're all experienced here. We know the game. People notice the loudmouths more than the others, especially wrong loudmouths. Now, with a lack of trail from the Werewolves's kills, who do we look at? Yeah, that's right, the loud ones. As I said, elegant.

With this said, I am quite convinced that some of the Villagers clamouring for Saucie's death are, in fact, Werewolves.

Yeah, I'm looking at you, Glirdan. You too, malkatoj. And, oh, Formendacil, the Sharingan has not passed by you.

I'll be back with my lengthier analysis.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

NIGHT deaths, DAY votes, and reasons for such things. Innocents in underline.

NIGHT 1

Meneltarmacil - moderator

Because.

DAY 1

Form: I'm voting for ++ Valier. Queen Beruthiel must go!

Wayne: ++FORMENDACIL

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

Nilp: ++Nilp. Who else?

Valier: ++Wayne. Well I just have to say I don't like wimps, or nerds or well most things besides lovely coconuts.(Giggle) The Goblin must go! (Giggle)

Abercrombie: Best go with the one that has already provided "conclusive" evidence of his guilt: ++NILPAURION FELAGUND

Cailín: ++WAYNETHEGOBLIN. Your vote for Formendacil and your defensiveness doesn't sit right with me.

morm: ++Valier. If for no other reason than the giggling and to get things moving a bit.

SpM: For her rather forceful reaction to my pressing her for evidence and for naming easy targets before going on to cast what I consider to be a "safe" vote (at least for today) for someone else, I will cast my vote for: ++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN

daga'y: WHY MUST YOU PEOPLE PERSIST IN PERSECUTING THE POOR NUTTER [Nilp]?

++ABERCROMBIEOFROHAN. I was suspicious before, but SpM's comments distilled that suspicion.

Garin: Well, I am slightly inclined towards Abercrombie but the coin tells me to vote for Valier. If this turns out to be wrong you can lynch the coin. ++Valier

spawn: If your best is to vote for someone who said he won't be here during the rest of the Day and who is a safe vote because the odds are that he won't be lynched today, I'd like to know what is your worst. Besides, you said you didn't want to vote for Wayne because he already had one vote. Why did you then want to vote for Nilp although he, too, had one vote?

Well, I'll make a tie between Abercrombie and Valier. Let's see how others react to that.

++Abercrombie

Aiwendil: I can't say I see much reason to think that either [Valier or Abercrombie] is a wolf, but then (it being early) I don't have much reason to think that anyone in particular is a wolf. As I indicated before, I am very slightly inclined to think Abercrombie more likely to be guilty. Therefore: ++AbercrombieofRohan

Kath: As far as I've got it is spawn that seems to stand out as innocent, so I'm going to accept her ideas about Crombie. I've not seen anyone I've really wanted to vote for toDay, but those points about her flipflopping around are persuasive. ++ABERCROMBIE OF ROHAN

Shelob: I don't want to bandwagon (vote for Aber) and I don't want to tie it (vote for Valier) so I'm just going to vote for the person I have the worst feeling for right now, and that's still: ++Garin

malka: So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

++WAYNE THE GOBLIN for reasons I explained earlier.

Glirdan: ++Saucepan Man. Simply because something about him is not sitting right with me. I also don't want to be a part of a bandwagon and I don't want to cause a double lynch.

Naria: Sorry if you're an ordo....you just too crazzzy!! ++Nilp

NIGHT 2

Aiwendil - innocent

Cailín says: He seemed quite keen on voting records and hoped, along with most of us, voting would tell us something tomorrow. He neither thought Abercrombie nor Valier particularly guilty, but saw some sense in Saucy's reasoning. He thought Glirdan’s Form - Wayne - Valier connection-theory sounded interesting. Nothing that points to Seerism or any other Gift. I think he was killed because he seemed intelligent and would likely become a danger to the wolves later on, and because he did not really accuse anyone, but rather chose to wait till more evidence was available.

DAY 2

Nilp: malka, and her vote for Wayne.. With four votes left, was she perhaps pushing for a tie? ++malkatoj

malka: I think the people who voted for Abercrombie should be payed close attention to. That's SpM, TGWBS, Spawn, Aiwendil, and Kath. I'm most suspicious of the last three, since their votes (a) are easy, since there's already suspicion there, and (b) set Crombie's death in stone. ++KATH

Valier: My suspisions of Garin I think are the most pressing on my mind for this day. He makes me nervous,with not knowing if he's a wolf or not...but today I do believe he is a wolf,His posting pattern is completely off, He needs to go sooner than later! ++Garin

morm: I haven't been able to read all yet but I find it interesting that Cailin attacks me, mildly, but still attacks because I haven't mentioned Spawn before. I think I have at one point but I'm not suspicious of her so why mention her? Also there are many others I haven't mentioned. Cailin is seeming to be the most wolfish to me currently and I don't have much time to explain but she's wise and cunning beyond her years and I think she's attempting to steer us to her thoughts and I find this unsettling at this stage. ++Cailin

SpM: ++SHELOB. To summarise, she seems to be trying to be present without committing herself too much - to be contributing without saying anything useful - which seems out of character to me. And I am somewhat swayed by the fact that others (who I currently have no particular reason to suspect) feel the same way.

daga'y: These are the seriously "safe" votes, votes unlikely to affect the outcome, apathetic votes that show little interest in divining innocence. In short, condemnable votes.

I think I'll go for Naria to give a wide range of possibilities for those still to vote, making it harder for wolves to hide. And I did warn those who vote for Nilp... ++NARIA

spawn: Shelob preferred random accusations to evidence, but since Sauce wanted reasoned posts, she decided to sit back and stay out of the conversation. Also, her vote for Garin seemed at least to me like a safe choice.

"It won't help today at all, but it beats a bandwagon or a tie." ~Shelob about her vote.

Besides, both options are generally considered as suspicious, right...?

Shelob also defended Kath and Glirdan.

++SHELOB

Form: ++ The Saucepan Man, for trying to take control.

Cai: Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you. His coin flipping sounds a little weird. First he is inclined to vote Marcolie, then - after Mormegil’s vote - wishes to vote for Valier and after SpM’s vote he’s suddenly more convinced of Abercrombie (as he said, he merely voted Valier because of the coin). ToDay he was eager to not be under suspicion by pointing out isolated votes are more suspicious than voting for innocents. ++GARIN

Kath: I would say the person who has voted with the least reason is Valier, and because of that: ++VALIER

Shelob: since I don't really want to die. Vote: ++Cailin

Garin: ++Shelob Sorry, dear but better you than me/

NIGHT 3

Valier - Innocent

Sauce says: I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter [edit: Ranger]. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double[sic]-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

~*~

Analysis later. Sorry to keep you waiting, but this will take a while.

[Garin]

Form says: No, he couldn't. He takes being a Wolf too seriously for that.

I'm not swayed too much by that but that comment may come to haunt you.
Nilp always confuses me with a suicidal run and then a dedication to the village with some real analysis.
I find both somewhat innocent but that is off the record.

[Garin]

Spawn says: What about Wayne, then, voting himself like that? And in two minutes, Gil appears to cast his vote for Wayne, too. If we are going for a double lynching toDay, I'd suggest that we take out two silent ones instead of someone who actually contributes a lot (leaves us more clues).

I agree with this completely, that was very odd and almost seemed prearranged.

[mormegil]

I think I know why we, the loudmouths, are still alive. It's because if they killed off the handful of us that talk a lot this village would be silent!!!

I think I shall stick with Cailin today. My observation earlier has solidified in my mind and I can see now her wolfish influence taking root in our councils. My suspision of others still holds and will continue on but currently there seems to be a lack of action so I will go against my wont and vote early, meaning before the final hour.

A personal side note. Tomorrow I may be going for those who are perpetually silent and haven't contributed much to our village. At a certain point they will need to be cleared out to remove some of the confusion and ambiguity. So I will start with the most guilty looking quiet one and move on. Probably Formen right now...I just don't understand him at all.

++Cailin

[Gil-Galad]

alright i sneaked back on


to explain my actions, i assume that wayne is a wolf and is maybe trying to bluff us, if he seems suicidal, it saves him because we are just thinking that hes just being weird, but i beleive hes a wolf trying to sneak by us by fooling us

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

*deep breath*

Form is useless in this game so far. Even if he's innocent (which I rather doubt), Darwin may justify us in killing him.

Glirdan has attacked Sauce not once, but twice--Form, too, I forgot, attacked the poor lawman twice. Of course, his DAY 1 vote may be seen as a safe one, since it has no chance of taking power. But still . . .

malka's mistaken vote for Aiwendil yesterDAY . . . hmmm . . . Well, I did almost vote for players that didn't actually join in the last game, so . . . I don't know. Still not entirely innocent, to me. Less so, since she's attacking an innocent. But she is safe from me toDAY.

Well, Cailín:

This is no accusation - more people have voted for two innocents and indeed it is more subtle to not be on the 'winning' bandwagon. However, like me probably, you have a tendency to be in full control of the game. These outcomes show that. I hope you are aware that, if things go the wrong way, people will start blaming you. And I hope these people are aware that they will. This is really just a plea for people to make up their own minds. (Cailín)

Things are going the wrong way, with two innocents lynched. That's why people are blaming the 'Pied Piper.' But . . . this is the first mention of this whole 'bandwaggon leader Sauce', right? Hmmm . . . considering the effects of her words, as mormegil said, this is pretty subtle manipulation. Creepy. 'This is no accusation,' indeed.

Now, daga'y:

That said, Glirdan and Cailin, you have both raised interesting points about SpM. Twice in a row, he has cast the first vote for an innocent. Perhaps he is simply cursed with too much authority - people follow him too much, and the votes he casts influence others too much, incriminating him. I recall that his Abercrombie vote was particularly late. (he is short)

This seems innocent to me, sorry. Not because he's been defending me, but because it casts no accusation, unless its aim is to put into the minds of the others--the ones easily manipulated into doing bandwaggons, may I add--that this metal-clad chap killed two of their fellows. Or perhaps I'm putting words where they are not.

To be dramatic, these three, Cailín, Glirdan, and Form, might form a firestorm that would consume Sauce--and probably the rest of the loudmouths. I'm for lynching one of them.

Well, since Cailín already had a vote, a vote for her would seem most useful at the moment.

++Cailín

(Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart. )

[the guy who be short]

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

But before I go on and investigate for myself her possible lycanthropy, I have previous points to bring up.

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

Wayne's suicide attempted could be viewed in many ways, and I don't know which to opt for. It's strange, as his name had really been mentioned very little beforehand. Perhaps a wolf feeling the pressure and trying to pull a Nilp. But perhaps simply a lost innocent. To be completely honest, I don't know at the moment, both ideas seem likely.

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

What I find interesting is that I mentioned looking into the quieter villagers, and suddenly this happens.


Now, off for a look at Cailin.

[the guy who be short]

Vote for / Vote by / Votes thereafter

1. Wayne - Wayne (Wayne - 1)
2. Wayne - Gil (Wayne - 2)
3. SpM - Malka (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
4. SpM - Glirdan (Wayne - 2, SpM - 1)
5. Cailin - morm (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 1)
6. Cailin - Nilp (Wayne - 2; SpM - 2; Cailin - 2)

[Kath]

I'm here SpM! Though this will only be a short visit I will be back later when I have a nice stretch of time to go through everything.

However since I am here for a few moments I would like to just say a couple of thing.

Glirdan (I think) you can't accuse SpM of beginning a bandwagon. That doesn't work. The first person to vote can't be bandwagonning!

Gil and Wayne's votes coming so close together is odd. Wayne could be trying to pull a Nilp (and seemingly succeeding, as I don't think anyone but Gil has voted for him?) but then do we consider him innocent as we do Nilp right now or do we consider him guilty and trying to bluff his way out of suspicion. The latter would seem odd as he hasn't been under much but it is possible.

morm - I'm not keen on double lynches. Yes they can be necessary but simply to take out quiet villagers? I know part of what you said was just to make a point but I'd rather give people a chance rather than lynch them straight off (and yes that's partly because I've been pretty quiet!).

That's about it except for one plea. Please can we not argue between ourselves too much? Querying the actions of person is fair enough, it must be done, but do it without acting as though you will suspect this person for all time unless they answer your questions immediately and absolutely. And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily - it's hard, I know, but we have to keep calm! Fighting between ourselves only serves to give the wolves a good laugh.

Back in a few hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Vzv, Sauce, if you're a Werewolf, I will personally select a poisoned arrow, and personally paradrop on your workplace to personally shoot you in the heart.

... and you would be thoroughly justified in doing so. Rest assured, though, you won't be put to the trouble.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

All this suspicion suddenly piled onto Cailin is somewhat astounding, as I hadn't really thought much about her before - and that's always a bad sign.

To be fair, she did attract two votes yesterday - only one less than the day's lynchee. One from mormegil, who has been pretty consistent in his suspicion of her and one from Shelob, who we now know was innocent (although that, of course, does not mean that she could not have been mistaken). And, if I recall correctly, dancing spawn had her suspicions of Cailin yesterday too.

My own suspicion of Cailin is a relatively new development. It started when I tried to work out why I had suddenly become such a strong suspect in the early discussions of today. Like Nilp, I didn't like the way that Cailin put the case against me, while claiming not to be making an accusation. When I looked back, it seemed to me that she had done much the same thing yesterday with regard to Shelob, while ultimately extricating herself from involvement in the lynching of an innocent. Mormegil's comments today on her therefore struck a chord with me. Although I would emphasise that I am not being swayed by him - I had separately reached the same conclusion.

Hmm, I must vote soon if I am to vote at all today. I have seen nothing to deter me from casting my vote for either Wayne or Cailin. And I am more inclined to vote for Cailin since Wayne, while acting strangely, is unpredictable by his very nature.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

I see what you are saying, but (except perhaps at the beginning of Day 1) Gil has not really been under determined suspicion so far and so a Wolfish Gil would have no particular reason at this stage to take overt steps to deflect the votes away from him. And I can't really condemn him for suspecting Wayne because of Wayne's self-vote because I suspect Wayne for much the same reason.

And finally (for now) ...

Originally Posted by Kath

And repliers, don't assume that you're under suspicion and react angrily ...

I didn't react angrily because I assumed that I was under suspicion. I reacted angrily because I was under suspicion - and for pretty silly reasons in my opinion. But I am much calmer now. Thank you.

[the guy who be short]

All quotes are from Cailin unless stated otherwise. This is only from Today. Yesterday shall be analysed as soon as possible.

The first thing I notice is a confused post, amidst which one finds this:

I will not be able to return till about two hours before the deadline.

All these people attacking her and voting early are conscious that she cannot return to defend herself for a long time.

All other accusations of Cailin seem to refer to Yesterday. I will have to go investigate what she said yesterday that is so incriminating. Thus far, her words seem logical enough to me.

I will analyse Cailin's actions on Day 2 upon my return, presumable in an hour.