Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here is my voting analysis from yesterday. I know TGWBS has already posted his, but it is traditional for me to do so:

1. Nilpaurion for malkatoj (malkatoj -1)
2. Malkatoj for Aiwendil - er - Kath (malkatoj -1, Kath -1)
3. Valier for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1)
4. Mormegil for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1)
5. SpM for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1)
6. TGWBS for Naria (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -1, Naria -1)
7. Spawn for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1)
8. Formendacil for SpM (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -1, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
9. Cailin for Garin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1)
10. Kath for Valier (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -1, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
11. Shelob for Cailin (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -2, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)
12. Garin for Shelob (malkatoj -1, Kath -1, Garin -2, Cailin -2, Shelob -3, Naria -1, SpM -1, Valier -1)

Did not vote: Wayne, Gil-Galad, Glirdan, Márcolië Lamen, Naria

First things first. Valier's death. I find it quite bizarre. I would not have expected one of the quieter, less analytical (by her own admission) villagers to be the night's victim. Perhaps the Wolves are counting on the fact that, if they give the "loudmouths" enough rope, they will hang themselves. Indeed, the gathering murmurs against me suggest that they might be onto something there. But more of that later. A few possible reasons why the Wolves may have targetted Valier. They are no doubt trying to find the Seer and the Hunter. The most likely reason for her death, therefore, is that they thought her to be either one of these. I suggest we all go back and look carefully at what she said, but I can think of nothing offhand which she said which might have been construed as a hint. So the only thing I can think of that might have made them think her a Seer is that she strongly identifed a Wolf. Which looks bad for Garin, whom she attacked pretty much single-mindedly yesterday, and to a lesser extent Wayne (in the event that both Garin and Wayne are Wolves and they thought that she was a Seer who had had two lucky dreams).

Some other possible reasons. An attempt to frame an innocent Garin? Possibly, but only if they drew a blank in their search for possible Gifteds. An attempt to frame Kath, who voted for her? The same applies, and it would be a pretty transparent move. A double-bluff by a Wolfish Garin or a Wolfish Kath? Again, possibly, but unlikely given the suspicion that they were both under yesterday. It would surely be too risky. An attempt to frame those who suspected her, namely mormegil, Glirdan and Garin? But really, would it be worth their bother if that was their sole reason, when they had better targets to choose.

One further explanation is that she accused, throughout the two preceding Days, only two people - Wayne and Garin, and she was one of our quieter villagers, so they may simply have chosen her thinking her death gave us little to go on and, incidentally, might incriminate an innocent or two.

Difficult to say what the reason was, but the attempt to kill a possible Seer looks the most likely to me. Although, at the same time, my suspicions of Garin did lessen during the course of yesterday, so I am loathe to accuse him on that basis alone.

Now, before I go on, let me get something out of my system. I am getting just a little bit fed up with people accusing me of talking too much and trying to take control. Well, pardon me for bothering to participate in our discussions (unlike some I could mention).

If you think I am saying too much, then the answer is to try to drown me out with your own analyses. I would be only too happy if you did so, since it seemed yesterday that there were only a few of us who were actually bothering to try to solve this mystery. That is what I am trying to do and that is why I have been speaking a lot. Thinking aloud, if you like, and sharing my thoughts, in case they strike a chord with anyone. I am not trying to control anyone or sway the village. Of course, I hope people read and take account of what I say - otherwise why bother posting? But I hope you are all capable of making up your own minds.

If people followed my ideas because they agreed with them, then it means that there must have been some substance to them, even though they turned out to be wrong. And it also means that those who shared my thoughts are just as complicit in the deaths of two innocents as I am and bear us much consideration as I do, even if I was the first to cast the vote for our dead innocents in both cases. I would point out that I was not the only one who suspected Abercrombie and Shelob, even amongst those who did not ultimately vote for them, and indeed my decisions to vote for those two, particularly the one for Shelob, were partially influenced by the fact that others, whom I felt to be innocent (at the time at least) were thinking along the same lines as me. And if people followed my ideas because they couldn't be bothered to think for themselves, then that's their problem not mine. Either that, or they are Wolves and were looking for a mistaken innocent to follow. Basically, I would encourage everyone to try to think for themselves and reach their own conclusions, rather than adopting mine.

OK, rant over.

Now, to comment on a few of the things that have been said today already, partially because they pick up on a few points that I wanted to make anyway:

Originally Posted by Cailín

Both Mormegil and Saucepan Man are still alive. So is Spawn. This is both good as well as highly disturbing. Either they are wolves or they are completely in the wrong. Both is pretty bad.

Well, for my own part, all I can say is no, I am not a Wolf, and yes, I have been badly wrong so far. Frankly, the fact that I am still alive does make me wonder whether I have been barking up the completely the wrong tree (to adopt an unfortunate phrase) so far and makes me wonder whether all of my suspicions to date (Garin, Glirdan and Kath) have been off-key. In other words, I feel as though I am more or less back to square one.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Secondly, I'd like to insult them for killing an innocent Valier. I'd also like to insult the village for killing an innocent Shelob and Abercrombie.

Thirdly, I'd like to direct today's attention, discussion, and lynching towards a candidate who is a Werewolf.

I find that rich coming from someone who has offered no insightful analysis so far - not a sausage. Perhaps if we had had the benefit of your contributions, we might have been better off but, since you have not deigned to share them, we don't know, do we? And, while on the subject of Formendacil, I agree with those who expressed the view that his contribution yesterday (such as it was) looked decidedly Cobbleresque. This latest contribution only fortifies that view in my mind. Could Formendacil be a Wolf masquerading as the Cobbler in order to avoid being lynched? It's possible, but it would be a very risky gambit and there's little need for the Wolves to take such risks at this stage. And, if he's innocent, then he has been sod all use to us so far.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Definetly wasn't looked for. But it was probably the best choice for the Wolves.

Please explain why you think Valier was the best choice for the Wolves, Glirdan? I set out my thoughts above on why she might have been killed, but I can think of much better candidates (albeit on the basis of lesser knowledge than the Wolves have).

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I notice how SpM was after me a lot yesterday and knew perfectly well that I might not return in order to defend myself. What the strange thing is that he suddenly drops off that attack later on. I find this quite strange. Not to mention, if I'm correct, he was the first to voice suspicion for Shelob. He is really making me suspicious and uneasy.

Glirdan, I explained at the time that I voted that I did not think that there was enough evidence against you to warrant a vote. And I was also concerned not to vote for you as a reaction to your vote for, and continued suspicion of, me (a consideration which Cailín reasonably pointed out). Would you rather I had voted for you, even though I suspected others more? As for Shelob, I was not actually the first to note her suspicious-looking vote on Day 1. That was Cailín in post #86. I did subsequently voice strong suspicion of her and was the first to vote for her. But that was because I suspected her. I wish more people had enlightened us with some constructive analysis yesterday - or even contributed - but I'd better stop this line of thought before I start ranting again ...

Originally Posted by Cailín

Also - I very much wish to know why so many people failed to vote. I've never seen anything like it.

I agree. It was inexcusable (unless, of course, you have a good excuse - but even then you should perhaps not have joined our village in the first place).

Originally Posted by TGWBS

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

Although I did not agree with her reason for voting Valier yesterday (I thought that Valier justifed her vote perfectly well), I do agree that Kath is looking less and less suspicious as time wears on. Her Day 1 vote would have looked suspicious if Valer had turned out to be a Wolf, but we all know now that she didn't. Her Day 2 vote for Valier can't really be described as a "safe" Wolfish vote, as she was not to know that there would be such a pathetic turn out.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, if I were a Wolf, why on earth would I suspect Valier all the Day, and then go after her at Night knowing full well that the entire village knew that I had suspected her?

Originally Posted by Glirdan

In my defence, if I were a Wolf, I would not be as stupid to attack someone whom I suspected. That would leave to many clues pointing towards me.

I am not sure that this really stands up. You expressed your suspicion of Valier on Day 1, although not in particularly strong terms. Valier died on Night 3, after you had expressed no view on her on Day 2. It would be easy for a Wolf to shrug of any accusations based on suspicion in these circumstances, particularly as we all know and accept that there is little to go on on Day 1. And you have not really explained - to my satisfaction at least - why you said that you would probably not vote for me and then went ahead and did just that, in circumstances where a vote for me carried with it no possibility of getting me lynched. I accept that you thought that there was something not "sitting quite right" with me, but you expressed that feeling before you said that you would probably not vote for me. What you haven't explained is why you changed your mind. Mormegil has pointed out that your response to TGWBS's questioning does not quite add up, and I am inclined to agree with him. But I am also still concerned that my suspicion of you is swayed by your own strongly expressed accusations of me.

Like others, I really don't know what to make of the votes cast by Wayne and Gil. I have cautioned about going against them when they are merely behaving as they always do, but my patience with them is now beginning to wear thin. It would be nice if they could provide reasons for their votes. Perhaps, if Formendacil is not the Cobbler, Wayne is. Or perhaps, as Glirdan says, he is taking a leaf out of Nilp's book (although Nilp carries it off with so much more aplomb ).

Originally Posted by Garin

I voted for Shelob to save my life, it would've been a double lynch. If that doesn't seem reasonable, I don't know what else to say.

Fair enough, but you did seem to do it in a rather arrogant manner. I am not quite sure what to make of that. And, in response to Cailín's point, I suspect from the timing that he cross-posted with Shelob and did not see her vote for you before he cast his own. At the time, therefore, Shelob would have been the best option for saving himself. Although I am not sure why he did not make that point himself.

Originally Posted by malkatoj

It's possible, and likely, and I think he will be a strong candidate for lynching toDay.

Oh I do hope not, but if that turns out to be the case, then so be it. At least people will be making up their own minds for once, even if wrongly so (*pulls back from another rant*).

Originally Posted by mormegil

Finally I'm not ready to give Malka the innocent card just because she 'made a mistake'. I can fully believe a wolf would do that.

It is interesting that she admitted typing the wrong name, having meant to vote for Kath. It would have been much easier to regard her as innocent had she said that she actually meant to vote for Aiwendil, thinking that he was still alive. But would a Wolf be so honest? Or is it another possible bluff? In any event, there are three Wolves to find, so I am crossing malkatoj off my list - for now at least. Despite her deeply expressed desire to be rid of me ...

So, any ideas from me as to who might be a Wolf? Well, the above is all speculation (so please don't be swayed by it). As I said, I am really back to square one. Besides, I am terrified that if I express any suspicions, a whole load of people will agree with me and we'll end up voting another innocent "on my say so" ...