Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[Cailín]

So, we already have three votes. One is based on a dancing cat, another is based on some undoubtedly flawless logic that makes no sense to me and the final… oh well… So, Nilp voting for himself definitely indicates… means that… um, let’s be fair, it doesn’t mean anything. Which reminds me, Gil, Wayne, if you wish to live past Day 1, vote for yourself! Look at that Nilpaurion-fiend, it’s the perfect method.

Since this village is full of lunatics – except for me, obviously, you are all just sceptics – and coconut milkers, whatever foul and suspicious thing that may be, I say we should listen to Saucepan Man, because he seems to know what he’s talking about. Then again, he is not really talking about anything, which is quite suspicious in itself.

Aside from those three, Saucepan's seeming awfully pompous, he's probably the ranger. Gil keeps talking and he put all those links up and they're confusing, so cobbler. Aiwendil's acting pretty deep and whatnot, so he's the seer. And of course TGWBS is the hunter.

What are you doing, malkatoj, revealing the Gifted so readily! Oh no, now what are we to do?

It's quite probably that the majority of wolves are in the group that holds those with no real profession and don't contribute much to the welfare of our village.

Pfwah, and who are you Mr. Elven Smith, to judge who is valuable to this village? Can your crafty weapons save us from the wolves? Were you able to protect poor Meneltarmacil? Besides, I’ll have you know I contribute much to the welfare of this village. I keep TGWBS busy and and and… I can swim. A little. Sometimes. Then again, considering all laws of logic, it is quite likely most wolves are in the group of people without a real profession, simply because that group is clearly in the majority.

Anyhow, I doubt we shall be building a strong case against anyone toDay. Maybe we should lynch Wayne. He’s just a wimp anyway. I also mistrust Shelob and Kath. Kath seems a little over-enthusiastic about the whole thing – if she wishes to see werewolf activity, let her go to Mordor and leave us be - and Shelob… well, just a case of Day 1 xenophobia I suppose.

Finally, are these Bethiril and Narvi perhaps codenames? Should we jumble them, rearrange them and propose some wacked theory concerning their real identities?

I shall be back shortly, with hopefully more sensible things to say. Like Dancing Spawn just did (or at least, tis a brave attempt).

[Glirdan]

Well, I have returned from getting my medication and I must say that I feel much better today. I have already just briefly scanned the posts and I must say, something strange from our dear lawyer jumped out at me:

Now, this court is in session. Let him or her speak who has evidence upon which to base an accusation.

Sounds to me as if he's trying to bring out the Seer to tell us who he/she knows is innocent or a Wolf. This is making me slightly suspicious for the moment. I will return after a brief analysis of everything that's happened throughout the Day.

[Glirdan]

Well, after analysing everyone who's posted, I've now gotten more suspicions.

Firstly, Formendacil's vote is rather early. Very early infact. However, I still believe that he's innocent and since our esteemed lawyer will wish to ask me my reasoning behind this, and all other things I come up with, I will give it now. I believe that Form is just being as random as pretty much everyone else is. There is no suspicion in Form that I can ee of as of yet. As to this comment from our historian:

Glirdan: Is secretly a Hobbit. Don't let on, though.

I'm not a Hobbit. Sure I might have very curly feet and hair not to mention am only four feet tall. But that does not mean that I am a Hobbt. I'm just a very short Elf. ( )

Second. Gil is being rather confusing with all his talk of being innocent and afraid that we will lynch him. Now, I'm inclined to agree with at least this part of SpM's logic, "Innocent until proven guilty." So, in other words Gil, until you give us reason for your guilt, you're innocent. However, talking repeatedly about us lynching you will make you seem even more suspicious.

Third. Wayne's vote for Form is rather odd and has, as has been said, no logic in it what-so-ever. Definetly seems suspicious, but, is it really a cause of worry? Do we absolutely need to be afraid of him? I believe not. At least not until something drastic happens.

Fourth. Something about SpM is not sitting right with me. It might be because he's trying to find away to get me off the island. Or it might be something else. Maybe it's the quote that I put in my previous post.

Fifth. Morm's wish to be rid of all the lunatics, even though they be innocent, is rather unnerving. More innocents is better than more dead innocents and three Wolves still left. I will definetly watch you more carefully.

Lastly. I have no idea what to think of Nilp's craziness. It's probably just a ploy and he's really innocent. But something about that post doesn't sit well with me.

That's all that I've come up with. There are still those among us who have not said anything or barely anything. It's making me rather nervous. I think I need to go get my medication again. I'm shaking a lot right now.

[Cailín]

I wish I could come up with an intelligent plan to make a reasoned decision toDay, but so far, all I can think is throwing people in the water and see if they sink. I’m not sure whether it is wolvish to sink or not, but at least it will tell us something, right?

Random speculations and predictions:

mormegil- If Mormegil is not a wolf, we want to have him around. He makes shiny weapons and he insults random people. Both are nice traits when trying to find wolves. If he’s guilty, SpM will start a lynching campaign against him in about two days, so not to worry.
Garin- He’s been silent so far. If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably be truthful about it or accidentally leave a clue. We would be able to hear him trying to muffle his evil laugh of victory after each spoken word.
Nilpaurion Felagund- We lynch him today, tomorrow, sometime soon. Or the wolves attack him. Or he kills himself. I’m not worried.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Now dancing spawn is someone who might be a dangerous wolf. Fortunately, everybody thinks so, so she will never get away with it.
The Saucepan Man- If he’s not killed by the wolves soon, we can lynch him out of sheer annoyance.
Aiwendil- Not sure what to make of this shady character.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Eager to make sense and eager to get serious. She gets away with everything, so I suppose we should consider lynching her soon. But then again, I always believe she’s the Hunter. It just fits, doesn’t it?
Shelob- She’ll be eaten during Night 2. If she’s a wolf, we’ll probably lose.
malkatoj- She’s always lupine. Let’s kill her now before she kills us all!
Gil-Galad- He thinks we shall lynch him toDay anyway, so I don’t suppose he’ll show up for voting again. If he’s a wolf, he will believe himself dead. Which is almost as good as having really lynched him.
Glirdan- If he’s a wolf, he’ll probably make some elaborate but extremely flawed plot, leading us to believe Naria is the Werebear, Meneltarmacil was actually the Seer and every single one of us is Cursed. If he’s not, we shall lynch him as an innocent. Probably before Day 5 is over.
Márcolië Lamen- If Márcolië Lamen is a wolf, we will never find out unless she’s shot by the Hunter. Or tries speaking in all capitals.
Formendacil- Right before the end of the game, we shall realise Formendacil is behind it all, like a very skilled puppeteer. We shall proceed to lynch him or he’ll reveal himself as the Seer.
Cailín- If she’s a wolf, she’ll probably get all her fellows lynched and then look smug in the end. Or make an enormous slip and get shot by the Hunter. But she’s not a wolf. She’s a mermaid.
Kath- The wolves will kill her toNight, believing she is the Ranger. Or the Cobbler. Or even if she’s a wolf herself. It hardly matters.
the guy who be short- If he’s a wolf, he will be trying so hard to seem like an ordinary he’ll end up killing himself during Nights. Accidentally, of course, but TGWBS is most capable of deluding himself.
WaynetheGoblin- He’s Wayne. What can I say?
Naria- Easy. If she votes for the same person three times in a row, she’s innocent.
Valier- I think we’re doomed if she is a wolf. Then again, she might admit it between giggles.

Um, yeah. This really is about the best I can do during Day 1. My initial inclination is to vote Wayne (or possibly someone really quiet and sneaky), if nothing interesting happens. I don’t like Wayne's vote for Formendacil (who admittedly gave the best-reasoned accusation so far ) and I fear we shall suspect him sooner or later anyway. But I shall watch developments with interest and I still hope someone might propose a grand, ambitious and perfect plan before the Day is done.

The problem is – people are randomly accusing, which doesn’t tell us much. However, voting always does. Voting is evidence. The only plan I can come up with is the usual: spread the voting. The wolves are likely to spread their votes as well and will probably avoid all jumping on the same bandwagon. I don't think they will dare casting a wolf-on-wolf vote if we spread the votes and don't start early bandwagons, since that would be far too risky and if we could ensure they never vote for each other, voting should tell us something within a Day or two. The only problem and serious danger is that we might lynch a Gifted. That would be bad.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I didnt vote for him for his early vote but for the person he voted for.
I voted for him because you never know what someone is going to be.

[malkatoj]

So after reading everything over, I think our best bet for today would be to lynch either Gil or Wayne. Though we can't know if they're wolves, they are distracting and it'd be better to have them out of the way before we get to a point where there's real evidence. Since I'm almost sure that Wayne is just being Wayne, I'm more inclined to worry about Gil, as either a cobbler or a wolf.

I'll be back later to vote, just in case anyone else comes on and gives something away, but that is where my suspicions lie for the moment.

[Glirdan]

Well, isn't it quiet. A little too quiet if I may say so.

I must say that I agree with malka on the fact that Wayne and Gil are being a kind of nuissance, but I don't think we should lynch them just because. And since you said that malka, it makes me think that perhaps you might be hiding a little furry secret. You saying that makes you seem anxious to be rid of two possible (more than likely they are) innocents. Care to explain yourself?

[Garin]

Since no one knows anyone on day one. (Except the lousy wolves, of course. They have already had a midnight snack together--Meneltarmacil) I decided to examine each villagers chosen role/occupation. It is rather useless and filled with conjecture but it should stimulate conversation. Please don't take it personally, remember I have no social skills. As for the people I seem to say are innocent, that too is fleeting. You probably just chose a normal, respectable trade.
mormegil- Elven smith... Smiths are a welcome commodity although you have always seemed more orcish than elvish.
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners. I bring you the black diamonds that taste so delicious, plus I carry a silver-headed staff with which to discipline my pigs and also brain werewolves.
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth. I suppose we can trust the post- enslaved for now.
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist. I like flowers, and Spawn gives us them. Fine, for now.
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law. I care not for advocates of the law but it is a noble profession, if you like noble professions. I don't.
Aiwendil- Old woodwright. Wood is good. Feel safe from my vote for now.
AbercrombieOfRohan- Mysterious lady who lives in the depths of the forest. Mysterious is not a welcome commodity in these lands, why the mystery and what are you hiding?
Shelob- Someone who recently washed ashore. Washed ashore at the same time werewolves arrive. Quite the coincidence, no?
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man) I don't believe in miracles, maybe you hope they will save your lycan behind.
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst. We are about to stone you, what do you think of these rocks? Oblong maybe?
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street. Crazy is always a perfect cover for the furry, just admit it.
Márcolië Lamen- Second official 8th day adventist Pastafarian. I researched your role. It instantly puts you in cahoots with Abercrombie. Her Avatar reflects your beliefs. Is this some wolfish cult? EDIT: Aber apparently changed her image. So,never mind.
Formendacil- Village historian. Oh good, every town needs a boring guy. I am fine for now and will ignore your allegations.
Cailín- Deluded girl who believes she is a mermaid. Delusion is not something we need at this time. I enjoy mermaids as much as the next guy, but wanting to be part animal is quite suspect.
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal. Chasing goblins instead of the rational world. Get in the real world please. I don't believe our village is about to be disemboweled by spirits. Though, I supposed the lycans are paranormal so perhaps you can prove useful
the guy who be short- Mermaid-catcher and fisherman. I was about to condemn you but you add fisherman to your occupation. This seems to make you less insane than others. I like fish, stick around wacko.
WaynetheGoblin- Town geek, wimp, and nerd. A true town geek would make our village rich and not on the brink of exctintion. What have you done for us lately?
Naria- Crazy old lady that thinks the marine life talks to her. Oh look! Another crazy person! Truly inspires suspicion. It could be a cover or maybe she is truly crazy.
Valier- Overly giggly coconut milker who only milks the coconuts while standing on her head. Well, that is just plain silly. I know little of the fruit you are milking and don't trust your odd habits. Would you prefer milk from your werewolf mama's teats?
I will hold my vote for later.
May the villagers win.

EDIT: fixed some italics and bolding

[mormegil]

I find it interesting that Malka and Calin seem eager to kill Gil and Wayne. They seem like easy targets and won't arouse too much suspicion if killed.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Fifth. Morm's wish to be rid of all the lunatics, even though they be innocent, is rather unnerving. More innocents is better than more dead innocents and three Wolves still left. I will definetly watch you more carefully.

Nay, I'd rather have innocents that contribute to our society than a bunch of drains on society. Does this make me a wolf? No but it does make me somebody who wants to better our society, if you take my meaning. Some must die, and inevitably innocents as well. I'm thinking of the future of this village, what would you rather have around, a woodwright or some head standing coconut milker who giggles far too often? A high quality smith that makes great armor and weapons or a miracle man that's a woman who cannot perform miracles because she's 'retired'.

See my point?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I noticed your "Me too Nilp" when you posted it, but I still cannot find Nilpaurion's. Would you care to put me out of my misery?

Post 32 ironically I cannot find SpM's quote so if you could help me out.

I've often thought of doing this but haven't yet.

[Aiwendil]

Thanks. Saucepan's was post 107.