WWJ III - Nan Qualinmerë: Death Wish Valley - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Mithalwen · 01-26-2006, 06:40 AM

I am not convinced by Garin's arguments - especially his attacks on Anguirel. I really think the Thinlomion vote on a first day would be unecessarily risky for a woluf...adn I still get the impression that our Seer cleared him....

However that seems increasingly academic...... Tar bracketed Wayne and Garin.

If I have no inspiration during the afternoon (unlikely on current form).. do we go for a double lynch?

I not sure I have the skill to work out probablitiles.. but perhaps one of you does... normally I would not be infavour of lynching more than necessary but now we have lost our gifteds the BEST case scenario is that we lose an innocent a night ... worst is noone dies and the wolves get a new member.. I just want to put up the idea that it may be worth trying to wind this up quickly to minimize the lycanthropes recruitment opportunities....

Anguirel · 01-26-2006, 07:22 AM

An interesting point, Mith. Particularly as the few dead villagers so far mean the Cursed Villager is extremely likely to be at large still.

But we should only head for a double lynch if a majority are confident about Garin's wolvishness. The loss of two innocents would be bad for the all-important village morale, already a new low, and would still nowhere near guarantee the elimination of the Cursed Villager.

As I'm pretty certain Garin's a wolf, though, I support this plan for now.

And while I don't suspect Wayne on any reasonable grounds other than the usual irritation he provokes, it would be a major victory from the brink of defeat if we hung both the varlet wolves today.

To be honest I'd rather hang Garin and Gandalf if it came to a double-lynch as the latter's presence seems to be entirely, but entirely, pointless...

Roa_Aoife · 01-26-2006, 07:35 AM

Voting thus far:

Garin-- Kath
Ang-- Garin
Crombie-- Garin
Garin-- Retracts vote for Kath, votes for Crombie
Kath-- Garin
Valesse-- Garin
Valier-- Wayne
Wayne-- Garin

A double Lynch loooks unlikely at this point. Garin has 5 votes, and the only other two who have recieved votes are only 1 a piece.

Anguirel · 01-26-2006, 07:41 AM

Yes, but we can retract votes if need be-though since I think Wayne's probably guiltless, I'd rather stick to Garin myself.

Roa_Aoife · 01-26-2006, 07:50 AM

I just noticed somtething after posting my list. Day 1, the first vote was Ang's shot in the dark, followed by Garin's vote for Ang. Day 2, the first vote was Gandalf's mandatory Wayne vote, which again followed quickly by Garin's vote for Ang, which was later changed to Shelob. Today, Garin started voting with a vote for Kath, which he then retracted and switched to Abercrombie.

Why so hasty, my friend? Just because we have retractable votes doesn't mean you should abuse them.

Also, now that the connection to Garin has been established, I see Wayne is turning colors, quickly, and with little expalnation. If he were a wolf, it would make sense to seperate. If he's innocent, well, he should be here more to defend himself.

01-26-2006, 06:40 AM	#1
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,463	I am not convinced by Garin's arguments - especially his attacks on Anguirel. I really think the Thinlomion vote on a first day would be unecessarily risky for a woluf...adn I still get the impression that our Seer cleared him.... However that seems increasingly academic...... Tar bracketed Wayne and Garin. If I have no inspiration during the afternoon (unlikely on current form).. do we go for a double lynch? I not sure I have the skill to work out probablitiles.. but perhaps one of you does... normally I would not be infavour of lynching more than necessary but now we have lost our gifteds the BEST case scenario is that we lose an innocent a night ... worst is noone dies and the wolves get a new member.. I just want to put up the idea that it may be worth trying to wind this up quickly to minimize the lycanthropes recruitment opportunities.... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

01-26-2006, 07:22 AM	#2
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	An interesting point, Mith. Particularly as the few dead villagers so far mean the Cursed Villager is extremely likely to be at large still. But we should only head for a double lynch if a majority are confident about Garin's wolvishness. The loss of two innocents would be bad for the all-important village morale, already a new low, and would still nowhere near guarantee the elimination of the Cursed Villager. As I'm pretty certain Garin's a wolf, though, I support this plan for now. And while I don't suspect Wayne on any reasonable grounds other than the usual irritation he provokes, it would be a major victory from the brink of defeat if we hung both the varlet wolves today. To be honest I'd rather hang Garin and Gandalf if it came to a double-lynch as the latter's presence seems to be entirely, but entirely, pointless... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-26-2006, 07:35 AM	#3
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Voting thus far: Garin-- Kath Ang-- Garin Crombie-- Garin Garin-- Retracts vote for Kath, votes for Crombie Kath-- Garin Valesse-- Garin Valier-- Wayne Wayne-- Garin A double Lynch loooks unlikely at this point. Garin has 5 votes, and the only other two who have recieved votes are only 1 a piece. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

01-26-2006, 07:41 AM	#4
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	Yes, but we can retract votes if need be-though since I think Wayne's probably guiltless, I'd rather stick to Garin myself. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

01-26-2006, 07:50 AM	#5
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I just noticed somtething after posting my list. Day 1, the first vote was Ang's shot in the dark, followed by Garin's vote for Ang. Day 2, the first vote was Gandalf's mandatory Wayne vote, which again followed quickly by Garin's vote for Ang, which was later changed to Shelob. Today, Garin started voting with a vote for Kath, which he then retracted and switched to Abercrombie. Why so hasty, my friend? Just because we have retractable votes doesn't mean you should abuse them. Also, now that the connection to Garin has been established, I see Wayne is turning colors, quickly, and with little expalnation. If he were a wolf, it would make sense to seperate. If he's innocent, well, he should be here more to defend himself. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

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