Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

For my next trick, I shall (unlike a balrog) sprout wings and fly to the moon!

Ay, I would indeed not be surprised.

I’m completely perplexed by the attitudes of some people who think finding out information about a suspicious character is not a worthwhile motive for voting. They instead vote for somebody else based upon as little or even less evidence. They feel better about this because they thought it up themselves.

Hmm are you referring to my vote, Kuru? For I believe that I was first to suggest lynching Nilpaurion toDay for information and I do consider information the most valuable thing one can obtain in this game. However, the case against Naria is - in my opinion - stronger and if she's not a wolf, I shall eat my... Well, let's not make hasty promises. I feel bad about voting for Nilpaurion because I thought it up and everyone just jumped on the bandwagon. Now that makes one suspicious.

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

EDIT: crossposted with Gurthang.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the archer

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

I stand by my words and I will die for them if needed be. If we do not lynch Nilp, it will be all too easy for a werewolf to keep bringing his name up as I believe most of us think him at least plausibly werewolvish. I say lets get rid of him now because later it WILL be getting REALLY close to the wolves number... we still are too many for them to come out and eat us all.

[Formendacil]

As the third day following the death of Formendacil drew to a close, the village was no closer to having definitely ousted a Werewolf than it had been any of the days previous. Of course, most of the villagers were quite certain that they had found a Werewolf, but persuading people that their pet theories were rational and right was about as easy as pulling teeth…

One of the most popular theories of the day was that if Nilpaurion was so insistent on proclaiming himself a carnivore, then they ought to give him what he was asking for, and lynch him. Even if he was innocent, the proponents of that opinion reasoned, it would clear up a lot of the confusion, and possibly shine a light on the Werewolves’ voting pattern. And so what if there were still two Werewolves in the village? The ranger, whoever he or she was, had protected them the night before.

Even as the villagers did their best to remain rational and discerning, the pressure they had been under for several days was beginning to tell. Amanaduial and Rune were not speaking to each other. The Guy Who Be Short, who was normally a cheerful and talkative fellow, had become rather sullen and silent. Valier had taken to drinking, joining Azaelia in the town “drunk tank”- except that Azaelia, under the stress, had sworn off drink, and was actually succeeding in having less than four ales a day. Lhunardawen was perhaps the one most affected, for she had started to howl, as if she were a wolf, and had begun to laugh at just about any suggestion made.

“It must be a sign of wolfishness,” said Naria spitefully, since Lhuna’s pet theory of the day had been that Naria was a Werewolf.

“I think it’s just heredity,” said Farael. “It’s not that different than Nilp’s carnivore fixation.”

“Then they’re both Werewolves,” said Malkatoj. “Problem solved. Let’s lynch them.”

“Now, now!” said Valier. “Tha’s againsht the rulesh… On’y one pershon a day!”

“Drunk though she is,” said Gurthang, “that is what we decided when this crisis started! Anyone who wants to change it must be a Werewolf looking to kill off more Villagers.”

“Are you calling me a Werewolf?” demanded Malkatoj.

“If he is, so what?” said Kuruharan. “There’s something about you that doesn’t sit right with me…”

“If you don’t care for my personal philosophy, say so!” replied the professor. “What that has to with the situation at hand, I don’t know!”

“You can learn a lot about people by looking at what they believe in,” said Alcarillo.

“Yes, and don’t think I haven’t been watching you, Mr. Moneybags!” retorted Kuruharan.

In the end, although about half of the village did not support a bandwaggon to lynch Nilpaurion, their votes were scattered and not a single one of their candidates came close to the number of votes that Nilpaurion garnered.

And so the village marched him up to the noose, and placed it around his neck.

“Any last words, Werewolf?” said Meneltarmacil.

“I am a carnivore, not a Werewolf,” declaimed Nilpaurion proudly. “I am no more harmful than the carnivorous ranch dog that keeps Gurthang company at night. I want the entire village to know that I go to my death with my head upright and my conscience clear, knowing that I die for a noble cause, to help my friends and neighbours find the vile killer that killed the noble Formendacil, and have since gone on to kill the village.

“I die knowing that I have done all I can to help in this matter, that I have lived a good and upright life, that I have no shirked my duty or hid in the face of danger, that I have, in fact, braved the dangers of teasing my silly Lhunatic sister. I go knowing that my memory shall not be soiled by unseemly work or unnecessary seriousness, but that I have done my foremost to spread goofiness, oddity, and good-hearted fun.

“I ask the forgiveness of the Valar and of the One Himself: Eru, whom I dare name in my last hour, that all of you who have voted for me in good faith shall come under no cruel judgement in the hereafter as a result, but that when we are all reunited in Arda Remade, that we shall remember these times with amusement, and all sorrow be forgotten.

“I consign my spirit to the judgement of the Valar, and I go forth from the Circles of Arda knowing that when the Second Music is sung, and Arda Remade created, that I shall run with Huan and the Hounds of Oromë, and follow the cry of the Valaróma. May Elbereth protect you all from the Wolves of Sauron!”

“Are you done yet?” growled Kuruharan.

“Yes, I think that’s about it. Does anyone have a message for me to pass on to Formendacil, Gil-galad, or Eluchíl?”

The village looked at him stonily.

“I’m done,” he said to his executioners.

The box was kicked out from beneath his feet, the rope when taut, and Nilpaurion was dead. Nothing happened.

“He’s not a Werewolf,” said Amanaduial, “he’s just an ORDINARY VILLAGER.”

“Oh, Nilp…” said Lhuna. “You IDIOT!”

DAY 3 is over, NIGHT 4 has begun.

Werewolves, Ranger, and Seer, I need your nightly picks.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Formendacil]

Due to unexpected burps in Formendacil's real life work schedule, NIGHT 4, our currect phase, will be about 2.5 hours shorter than normal, with DAY 4 being correspondingly longer.

Narration on the opening of DAY 4 may be postponed about ten hours, but the pertinent information will be posted in time.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Formendacil]

The sun was rising again over the village that would someday be known as Dol-in-Gaurhoth. The villagers, over-confident from the Werewolves' lack of success the night before, rose expecting to find things as they had the morning before.

But such was not to be the case...

As the villagers gathered in the village square, and casually took their morning head count, they soon realised that one of their number was missing. After some frantic checking to see who was there, and who wasn't, it soon became apparent that the Werewolves had taken Valier from their midst.

Together, the villagers made their way to Valier's home, but there was no sign of her there, dead or alive. There was, however, signs of an attempted flight from the village. Clothes were scattered on the floor, cupboards were thrown open, there was hardly any food to be found, and things were in total disarray.

"Here's all the stuff she was planning to take," said Farael, after a bit of searching. He held up a sack of food, clothing, and other essentials, apparently abandoned by her back door.

"Let's check out the brewery," said Lhunardawen. "It's rather apparent that she isn't here."

"Why would she go to the brewery if she was planning to flee?" asked Gurthang.

"I don't know," said Lhuna, "maybe she needed something from there. It's not like she would have left the village without this sack. It's leagues from any other settlement."

"She may have wanted some of her brewing equipment, or maybe some ale for the journey," suggested Cailin.

And so the villagers made their way to the brewery, and found to their startlement that the door was ajar. Cautiously, they made their way in. It was not long before they found Valier's body, sunk at the bottom of a vat of ale. Once again, the Werewolves had left them a message.

Stubborn little buggers, aren't you, Men of the West?

Well, no matter. Yet another of your number is down. And another soon will be. Your chances of finding us seem not to improve. You really ought to leave while you still can. Rhovanion WILL be ours.

The Werewolves in Your Midst.

P.S. Try the new brew, it's deliciously zesty!

"Eeww!!!" said The Guy Who Be Short. "That is just plain sick. At least she died INNOCENT."

"I wonder why the Wolves would have killed Valier," mused Kuruharan. "Let's think back over who she accused, and see if we can find a pattern."

"Or maybe they just killed her to throw us off by making us think that," said Gurthang. "You're too smart for your own good, Master Dwarf!"

And so began yet another day of debate...


Night 4 is over, Day 4 is begun.

You may begin posting.

Those alive:

Meneltarmacil - Creepy Guy on the Edge of Town
Cailin - Noble Kleptomaniac
Azaelia - Town Drunk
Farael - Worm Hunter
TGWBS - Hat Maker
Rune – Misplaced Hobbit Peace Activist
Alcarillo - Moneylender
Lhunardawen - Potion-Pizza Person
Gurthang - Rancher
Amanaduial - Northman Travel Guide
Naria - Store Proprietor
Kuruharan - Dwarven Alcohol and Weapons Merchant
Malkatoj – Philosophy Professor

Those dead:

Formendacil - Moderator - Killed by Werewolves, Night 1
Gil-Galad - Shrubber - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 1
Kath - Gongfarmer - Cobbler - Killed by Werewolves, Night 2
Garin - Horse Loaner - Werewolf - Killed by Vilager, Day 2
Eluchil - Mild-Mannered Innkeeper - Ordo - Killed "Accidentally" by Werewolf, Day 2
NIGHT 3 - NO DEATH
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspicious Carnivore - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 3
Valier - Brewmaster - Ordo - Killed by Werewolves, Night 4

[the guy who be short]

Hourra!

I mean, er, oh dear, another innocent dead.

Except that this unexpectedly early daybreak gives me a chance to post in the early morning, as well as the late evening, of the day.

Which means what you've all been waitin' for: Analyses.

I'll be on the case of Valier's death, and going over Nilps comments, in the course of the next two hours. Do not expect this everyday.

[Gurthang]

Know innocents in bold; known wolf (and cobbler) is underlined.

Day 1

Azaelia - Menel (Menel-1)
Alcarillo - Garin (Menel-1, Garin-1)
Nilp - Nilp (Menel-1, Garin-1, Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Nilp (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1)
Amana - Kuru (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Gil-galad - Nilp (Nilp-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
malkatoj - Nilp (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Farael - Eluchil (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Nilp (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Rune - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1, Gil-Galad-1)
TGWBS - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Menel - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Valier - Eluchil (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Kuru - Garin (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Cailín - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-4, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Gurthang - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Garin - Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-6, Nilp-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)

No vote:
Kath
Eluchil

Day 2
Alcarillo - Cailín (Cailín-1)
Lhuna - Eluchil (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1)
Amana - Lhuna (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Nilp - Cailín (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Farael - Garin (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1, Garin-1)
malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Eluchil-1, Garin-1)
Rune - Garin (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
TGWBS - Lhuna (Lhuna-3, Cailín-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Cailín (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Azaelia - Garin (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-1)
Cailín - Eluchil (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-2)
Valier - Garin (Garin-4, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Kuru - Garin (Garin-5, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Garin - Lhuna (Garin-5, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Gurthang - Garin (Garin-6, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)

No vote:
Eluchil
Menel

Day 3

Acarillo - Nilp (Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Naria (Nilp-1, Naria-1)
malkatoj - TGWBS (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1)
TGWBS - Kuru (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Valier - Nilp (Nilp-2, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Menel - Nilp (Nilp-3, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Farael - Nilp (Nilp-4, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Naria - Nilp (Nilp-5, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Rune - malkatoj (Nilp-5, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Cailin - Naria (Nilp-6, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Kuru - Nilp (Nilp-6, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Gurthang - Nilp (Nilp-7, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Amanaduial - Lhuna (Nilp-7, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1, Lhuna-1)

No vote:
Nilp
Azaelia

[Kuruharan]

Well, I have to confess that yesterDAY turned out pretty much as I was expecting…unfortunately. Still, I now feel pretty confident about one conclusion and I think it was probably worth it.

Since our Seer has apparently not received an answer yet, I think I will wait a bit before offering an opinion about where to go from here (probably about the nine hours mentioned by our moderator).

I am a little surprised the wolves picked Valier. I’ll go review her posts and suggest all other honest souls do the same.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I am a little surprised the wolves picked Valier. I’ll go review her posts and suggest all other honest souls do the same.

Kuru, I'm sorry, but I just can't do that. If you are a wolf, we would be playing into your hands. You kill someone who is completely on the wrong path, then suggest that we look at what they thought, thus leading us to information that is wrong.

Now, I'm not saying that you are a wolf, and I'm not saying that Valier was wrong; I'm saying that we have to make our own conclusions and review what we think is pertinent. I think that asking everyone to all do one thing is not a good idea. I will continue to look at voting, but you may be one who I focus on, sooner or later.

For now, I'm dividing the village into two groups. Nilp voter... and everyone else.

Voted for Nilp yesterday: Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Farael, Naria, Kuru, Gurthang

Voted for others: Lhuna, malkatoj, TGWBS, Menel, Rune, Cailín, Amanaduial

I'd be willing to bank quite a bit that there is a wolf who voted for Nilp, since it was pretty apparent early on that he would be lynched. Both wolves might even be in that group. But, I'm thinking that the other wolf voted for the first one. That would make perfect sense to me, since there was very little chance that the wolf receiving the vote would be lynched, and it will make the other look less suspicious if either is found.

So here are pairs. The first is someone who voted for Nilp, the second is one who voted for the first.

Naria-Lhuna, Naria-Cailín, and Kuru-TGWBS.

That's my theory so far, I'll be back later to look into each of these pairs.

[Formendacil]

The fifth day after Formendacil’s death began with a red sun rising over the village.

“Red at night, sailor’s delight; red in the morning, sailors take warning,” murmured Alcarillo.

“What do sailors have to do with us?” asked Farael. “We’re way too far inland.”

“Just a rhyme I picked up in Pelargir,” said Alcarillo. “Anyway, it strikes me as a bad omen. I imagine that somebody died last night.”

“And somebody will probably die today,” agreed Kuruharan, coming up behind them.

The village square was slowly starting to gather the remaining villagers. One by one they trickled in from their respective homes, until finally the last-rising Lhunardawen arrived.

“Did you have another vision?” Meneltarmacil wanted to know immediately.

“Yes, hold on,” said Lhuna. “Is everybody here?”

They took their morning headcount. Someone was missing. Gurthang, usually an early riser, being a rancher, had not risen.

As one, they made their way to the small house where Gurthang lived when pasturing his cattle near the town. “Better than life on the range,” he had said.

Bravely, Amanaduial pushed the door ajar, and then stopped, horrified, at the gory scene that met her eyes. The others pushed in behind her.

What they saw was not for the faint of heart. Gurthang’s home was covered in sticky, drying blood. Guts had sprayed the walls, and shreds of flesh were scattered over the furniture and across the floor. What was left of his body lay crumpled in the middle of the floor.

“He put up a fight at first,” said Malkatoj. “Look at all the wolf hair scattered around!”

“Let’s not bury him, what’s say,” suggested Naria. “It’s a bit uncustomary, but I think a cremation would be more in order.”

“Before we grab our torches, let’s see what message they left us,” said Rune.

“Why bother?” asked Kuruharan. “It’ll just be more self-satisfied crowing about how stupid we are and unable to find them.”

“How would you know?” asked Meneltarmacil. “Are you a Werewolf?”

“Having a brain doesn’t make me a Werewolf!” retorted the Dwarf.

At this point, Naria had caught sight of the note, pinned to the wall, smeared with blood. She looked over it once, and then crumpled it up, and tossed it onto the floor.

“More of the same,” she said. “We may as well let it burn.”

Leaving the house, the Villagers set fire to Gurthang and his home, and returned to the village square to try and out his killers in yet another day of accusations and lies.


Night 4 is over, Day 4 is begun.

You may begin posting.

Those alive:

Meneltarmacil - Creepy Guy on the Edge of Town
Cailin - Noble Kleptomaniac
Azaelia - Town Drunk
Farael - Worm Hunter
Rune – Misplaced Hobbit Peace Activist
Alcarillo - Moneylender
Lhunardawen - Potion-Pizza Person
Amanaduial - Northman Travel Guide
Naria - Store Proprietor
Kuruharan - Dwarven Alcohol and Weapons Merchant
Malkatoj – Philosophy Professor

Those dead:

Formendacil - Moderator - Killed by Werewolves, Night 1
Gil-Galad - Shrubber - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 1
Kath - Gongfarmer - Cobbler - Killed by Werewolves, Night 2
Garin - Horse Loaner - Werewolf - Killed by Vilager, Day 2
Eluchil - Mild-Mannered Innkeeper - Ordo - Killed "Accidentally" by Werewolf, Day 2
NIGHT 3 - NO DEATH
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspicious Carnivore - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 3
Valier - Brewmaster - Ordo - Killed by Werewolves, Night 4
TGWBS - Hat Maker - Ordo - Shot by the Village, Day 4
Gurthang - Rancher - Ordo- Killed by Werewolves, Night 5

[Kuruharan]

Well, I'm afraid this hardly comes as a shock.

I don't have time at the moment for an in depth analysis.

However, I am very interested to see if Amanaduial has anything approaching coherent to say...

More when I return.

[Formendacil]

The Ranger confidently stood guard over the village that was his care, waiting for the morning sun to arise. It had been a quiet night, thus far, and he was confidently expecting it to remain that way.

Such was not to be the case, for the Ranger himself was the target of the Wolves’ murderous intentions that night.

It was a silent attack, cunningly planned. After being driven off by him three nights before, they were wary of his skills. But it was two on one, and the Wolves had the advantage.

There was the faintest of sounds behind him, and the Ranger turned immediately, his hardened senses immediately alert.

And he turned to see one of the mighty werewolves waiting; its eyes glowing in the dark.

The Ranger’s sword flashed in the moonlight as he strode towards the Werewolf. But the noise that he and his prey were making completely masking the sounds of the other Werewolf approaching him from behind. Even as he brought his sword to bear against the one, the other leapt at him, hitting him hard in the back, and biting at his neck.

It was soon over. The Ranger was dead, the sun was rising, and the Werewolves had slipped away, leaving only a piece of parchment behind.

When the village gathered the next morning, they discovered the body of Alcarillo, lying facedown in the village square, a long sword in his hands, bite marks and claw marks marring his body.

Only then did they realize the truth. The greedy moneylender in their midst had been a selfless Ranger of Gondor- and he had just died protecting one of their own.

Getting arrogant, Men of the West? the Werewolves had written.

You shouldn’t be. We’ve just killed the only man in your village who’s successfully stood against us. Your discussions of late have been FAR off course. You’ll never catch us.

The Werewolves in Your Midst

Lhunardawen crumpled the parchment angrily. Her only sure ally had been killed.



Night 6 is over, Day 6 is begun.

You may begin posting.

Those alive:

Meneltarmacil - Creepy Guy on the Edge of Town
Cailin - Noble Kleptomaniac
Azaelia - Town Drunk
Farael - Worm Hunter
Rune – Misplaced Hobbit Peace Activist
Lhunardawen - Potion-Pizza Person
Amanaduial - Northman Travel Guide
Naria - Store Proprietor
Malkatoj – Philosophy Professor

Those dead:

Formendacil - Moderator - Killed by Werewolves, Night 1
Gil-Galad - Shrubber - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 1
Kath - Gongfarmer - Cobbler - Killed by Werewolves, Night 2
Garin - Horse Loaner - Werewolf - Killed by Vilager, Day 2
Eluchil - Mild-Mannered Innkeeper - Ordo - Killed "Accidentally" by Werewolf, Day 2
NIGHT 3 - NO DEATH
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspicious Carnivore - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 3
Valier - Brewmaster - Ordo - Killed by Werewolves, Night 4
TGWBS - Hat Maker - Ordo - Shot by the Village, Day 4
Gurthang - Rancher - Ordo- Killed by Werewolves, Night 5
Kuruharan - Dwarven Alcohol and Weapons Merchant - Cursed (Ordo) - Lynched by Village, Day 5
Alcarillo - Moneylender - Ranger - Killed by Werewolves, Night 6