Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Cailín]

(I am not sure if it was just me, but the BD forums did not work for me for a large part of the day, which somewhat explains my silence)

On the other hand, I feel I have little to add to the discussion right now and would really like to hear from some other people – Naria in particular. We shall not hear again from Lhuna or Nilp for toDay and I am quite certain Nilpaurion is going to die tonight. His death will tell us more and I hope that toNight’s events may clear things up a little, too.

Now there are a few things that are rather worrisome:

1) Lhuna's behaviour in her final posts toDay. Where did the sudden change come from? I hardly believe she thought it was game over for her, her prospects were not looking too grim at all. I think she was just having a bit of random fun, though admittedly very suspicious and not much helpful fun. I’d say she was the Cobbler if the Cobbler were not dead already.
2) Kuruharan and TGWBS. Now TGWBS posts one dramatic, little helpful post in which he votes for Kuru. He seems quite certain he will not survive the Day. Now why would that be? Also, Kuru, I wish to believe you but with every post you write in your defense I am again reminded of your shrewdness and intelligence, which are apparently working against you right now. I have a hard time believing you’re incapable of doing anything. However I am not going to be concerned with or about you toDay.
3) There are four votes for Nilp by now. I’m pretty sure there is a lupine among the voters and I hope that everyone will be smart enough not to place too much weight on toDay’s voting, since the outcome seemed pretty fixed from my first post.

I cannot really think of other things to say right now so I hope there are more different people who have anything to add to the discussion, though I highly doubt it.

[Naria]

Since she isn't going to be back on I'll generalize my comment. I really don't know were she came up with that analysis. It looks to me like she is trying desperately to take certain eyes off of her. She has done a complete 160 and has said nothing about me up till today and vaguely goes into why she suspects me and votes for me. That my fellow villagers is suspicious behaviour. Then her abnormal behaviour in her last couple of posts. She is either using some really good hallucinogenic ingredients in her pizzas or she's trying to tell us something-wolf?

Well the time is ticking away I have too go and close up my store for today. I have suspicions about Luna(obvious reasons) and a couple of others that I don't want to go into right now. I will maintain my opinion about Nilpand vote for him today.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Malkatoj

I have had great doubts about this one, but Malkatoj remaines my main suspect so she will get my vote. I was very close to voting Nilp , but I had to great doubt about Garin's motivation to vote for Gil-Galad.

I am sorry if this is to no help at all, but I would just not feel right to vote Nilp, nomather how helpfull his death would be.

[Cailín]

I have made up my mind.

++NARIA

I am pretty sure there is something wrong with her and though I am still more or less in favour of lynching Nilp as well, I find Naria appearing far more guilty right now.

Plus, I don't like how the voting is going in one singular direction.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial

Like Cailin said, she did display something of a change in attitude today - and she seems rather fixed on throwing all suspicions of her guilt onto Nilp, constantly 'warning' us about him

To me it seemed as if Lhuna were defending Nilp. However, I suggest the Seer dreams of Lhuna toNight, if he / she has not done so before, just so we can be sure.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Amanduial

Not on this thread, no, but I did comment on that on the general Tol-in-Gaurhoth discussion thread: I am a student, and due to other extra-curricular activities (such as the Shostakovichfest concert and rehersals all day today, hence my only coming on just now), I have rather limited time to post. I'm doing my best

My bad then, I offer you my sincere apologies.

With regards to the voting today, while I'm not trying to sway anyone into voting like I did (specially as it seems Nilp will be lynched without my efforts anyway) I'd like to note that for as long as Nilp lives, he'll be a distraction. And distractions only help a group of two among the fifteen of us. The same two those thirteen innocents remaining want to see dead.

I hate to compromise so deeply against anyone as should Nilp be innocent I'll look twice as suspicious, but read the logic into my words and remember that hindsight is always 20/20.... I think Nilp is suspicious and makes for a great distraction and barring a majour breakdown by one of the werewolves I think he should be lynched so that we can move on. As Kuruharan said, sometimes it's best to deal with the obvious rather than entretain weird theories that in the end favour the werewolves.

[Kuruharan]

I have a hard time believing you’re incapable of doing anything.

For my next trick, I shall (unlike a balrog) sprout wings and fly to the moon!

Enough of this nonsense! I’m confident of learning something useful that will stand us in good stead for the future if Nilp is guilty or not.

++ Nilpaurion

I’m completely perplexed by the attitudes of some people who think finding out information about a suspicious character is not a worthwhile motive for voting. They instead vote for somebody else based upon as little or even less evidence. They feel better about this because they thought it up themselves.

That seems suspicious.

[Gurthang]

I am also having some trouble getting throught to the Downs'. Not that I've had a lot to say.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

If you didn't know that was coming, you weren't here toDay. I really hope this clears the air a little.

[Gurthang]

Votes:

Nilpaurion Felagun - 7 (Farael, Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Naria, Kuru, Gurthang)
Naria - 2 (Lhuna, Cailin)
TGWBS - 1 (Malkatoj)
Kuru - 1 (TGWBS)
malkatoj - 1 (Rune)
Lhuna - 1 (Amana)

With Nilp, who probably won't vote, and Azaelia left.

If Nilp is a wolf, especially if he is a wolf, I will be looking at the ones who voted for him. There was enough suspicion and likelyhood that he would be lynched that it would be an easy vote for a fellow wolf to make.

[Amanaduial the archer]

So far...

Nilpaurion Felagund - 7 (Farael, Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Kuru, Naria, Gurthang)
Naria - 2 (Lhuna, Cailin)
TGWBS - 1 (Malkatoj)
Kuru - 1 (TGWBS)
Malkatoj - 1 (Rune)

Looks like the Carnivore is for the chop - and foils on your, Farael, you're being very persuasive! However, I continue to believe that Nilp is not a wolf, even if he is a 'distraction' - looks like he's headed for the gallows without my help anyway.

This vote is...well, somewhat uncertain, to say the least. But I'm afraid as I can't seem to form as coherent an arguement against anyone else especially in the short time we have left of the Day, I am voting for...

++Lhuna

EDIT: crossposted with Kuru and Gurthang.

[Cailín]

For my next trick, I shall (unlike a balrog) sprout wings and fly to the moon!

Ay, I would indeed not be surprised.

I’m completely perplexed by the attitudes of some people who think finding out information about a suspicious character is not a worthwhile motive for voting. They instead vote for somebody else based upon as little or even less evidence. They feel better about this because they thought it up themselves.

Hmm are you referring to my vote, Kuru? For I believe that I was first to suggest lynching Nilpaurion toDay for information and I do consider information the most valuable thing one can obtain in this game. However, the case against Naria is - in my opinion - stronger and if she's not a wolf, I shall eat my... Well, let's not make hasty promises. I feel bad about voting for Nilpaurion because I thought it up and everyone just jumped on the bandwagon. Now that makes one suspicious.

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

EDIT: crossposted with Gurthang.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the archer

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

I stand by my words and I will die for them if needed be. If we do not lynch Nilp, it will be all too easy for a werewolf to keep bringing his name up as I believe most of us think him at least plausibly werewolvish. I say lets get rid of him now because later it WILL be getting REALLY close to the wolves number... we still are too many for them to come out and eat us all.

[Formendacil]

As the third day following the death of Formendacil drew to a close, the village was no closer to having definitely ousted a Werewolf than it had been any of the days previous. Of course, most of the villagers were quite certain that they had found a Werewolf, but persuading people that their pet theories were rational and right was about as easy as pulling teeth…

One of the most popular theories of the day was that if Nilpaurion was so insistent on proclaiming himself a carnivore, then they ought to give him what he was asking for, and lynch him. Even if he was innocent, the proponents of that opinion reasoned, it would clear up a lot of the confusion, and possibly shine a light on the Werewolves’ voting pattern. And so what if there were still two Werewolves in the village? The ranger, whoever he or she was, had protected them the night before.

Even as the villagers did their best to remain rational and discerning, the pressure they had been under for several days was beginning to tell. Amanaduial and Rune were not speaking to each other. The Guy Who Be Short, who was normally a cheerful and talkative fellow, had become rather sullen and silent. Valier had taken to drinking, joining Azaelia in the town “drunk tank”- except that Azaelia, under the stress, had sworn off drink, and was actually succeeding in having less than four ales a day. Lhunardawen was perhaps the one most affected, for she had started to howl, as if she were a wolf, and had begun to laugh at just about any suggestion made.

“It must be a sign of wolfishness,” said Naria spitefully, since Lhuna’s pet theory of the day had been that Naria was a Werewolf.

“I think it’s just heredity,” said Farael. “It’s not that different than Nilp’s carnivore fixation.”

“Then they’re both Werewolves,” said Malkatoj. “Problem solved. Let’s lynch them.”

“Now, now!” said Valier. “Tha’s againsht the rulesh… On’y one pershon a day!”

“Drunk though she is,” said Gurthang, “that is what we decided when this crisis started! Anyone who wants to change it must be a Werewolf looking to kill off more Villagers.”

“Are you calling me a Werewolf?” demanded Malkatoj.

“If he is, so what?” said Kuruharan. “There’s something about you that doesn’t sit right with me…”

“If you don’t care for my personal philosophy, say so!” replied the professor. “What that has to with the situation at hand, I don’t know!”

“You can learn a lot about people by looking at what they believe in,” said Alcarillo.

“Yes, and don’t think I haven’t been watching you, Mr. Moneybags!” retorted Kuruharan.

In the end, although about half of the village did not support a bandwaggon to lynch Nilpaurion, their votes were scattered and not a single one of their candidates came close to the number of votes that Nilpaurion garnered.

And so the village marched him up to the noose, and placed it around his neck.

“Any last words, Werewolf?” said Meneltarmacil.

“I am a carnivore, not a Werewolf,” declaimed Nilpaurion proudly. “I am no more harmful than the carnivorous ranch dog that keeps Gurthang company at night. I want the entire village to know that I go to my death with my head upright and my conscience clear, knowing that I die for a noble cause, to help my friends and neighbours find the vile killer that killed the noble Formendacil, and have since gone on to kill the village.

“I die knowing that I have done all I can to help in this matter, that I have lived a good and upright life, that I have no shirked my duty or hid in the face of danger, that I have, in fact, braved the dangers of teasing my silly Lhunatic sister. I go knowing that my memory shall not be soiled by unseemly work or unnecessary seriousness, but that I have done my foremost to spread goofiness, oddity, and good-hearted fun.

“I ask the forgiveness of the Valar and of the One Himself: Eru, whom I dare name in my last hour, that all of you who have voted for me in good faith shall come under no cruel judgement in the hereafter as a result, but that when we are all reunited in Arda Remade, that we shall remember these times with amusement, and all sorrow be forgotten.

“I consign my spirit to the judgement of the Valar, and I go forth from the Circles of Arda knowing that when the Second Music is sung, and Arda Remade created, that I shall run with Huan and the Hounds of Oromë, and follow the cry of the Valaróma. May Elbereth protect you all from the Wolves of Sauron!”

“Are you done yet?” growled Kuruharan.

“Yes, I think that’s about it. Does anyone have a message for me to pass on to Formendacil, Gil-galad, or Eluchíl?”

The village looked at him stonily.

“I’m done,” he said to his executioners.

The box was kicked out from beneath his feet, the rope when taut, and Nilpaurion was dead. Nothing happened.

“He’s not a Werewolf,” said Amanaduial, “he’s just an ORDINARY VILLAGER.”

“Oh, Nilp…” said Lhuna. “You IDIOT!”

DAY 3 is over, NIGHT 4 has begun.

Werewolves, Ranger, and Seer, I need your nightly picks.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Formendacil]

Due to unexpected burps in Formendacil's real life work schedule, NIGHT 4, our currect phase, will be about 2.5 hours shorter than normal, with DAY 4 being correspondingly longer.

Narration on the opening of DAY 4 may be postponed about ten hours, but the pertinent information will be posted in time.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~