Tol-in-Gaurhoth XV-The Villagers Strike Back!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The thing I found a bit odd about Formendacil is that his posts has been without bite. They are kind of vauge and points in a lot of directions. This is quite normal infact my posts are just as vauge, but this is Formendacil. He is not acting like the wolf I used to know, he is keeping out of discutions, dont acusse people and does not post as much as you woul think. (All of this is by Formendacil standarts)

Therfor I took a look at his posts for tonight.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I must say, when I said I was voting for Glirdan to stir things up, I really wasn't expecting such a bandwaggon to hitch itself behind me. Still, I certainly got an interesting thing going, with plenty of information to analyze.

First he defends his vote for Glirdan by saying that it was to stir things up, this I can accept. Then he goes on to saying that it was really a good thing. . . a bit odd, but not that odd.

He allso states that there is now plenty of information to analyze, but lets see what he says latter on.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

In my opinion, we are really in a situation as bad as last Night- more random voting on little or no evidence, with only the future's hindsight to clarify our actions.

Is this not a contradiction? Last Nght we had nothing to go by, but now as you say we have things to go by and yet your conclution is that nothing has changed.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

SPM's death, though a bit of an odd one from my point of view, is quite a logical one for the Heroes to have made. Since they knew that SPM wasn't one of their own, it was quite logical that they would have wanted to kill off one of the most intelligent wolves, and -more importantly- it was a move that any Wolf with half a set of smarts would do- and with yesterday's contorted voting record, we really have no way of guessing who it could be.

I just dont under stand this part. You give us a long expanation to why this would have seemed like a good kill for the Heroes, but just before you tell us how odd you think it is. I don't get it!

I know I have no great case, but it is the best i could come up with.

++Formendacil

[Boromir88]

Interesting arguments, all rather intriguing. Menel does make sense in his suspicion against Rune. Saying he's preying on someone that would be an easy target. However, would you not agree that yesterday Glirdan would be an easy target for a hero?

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

1) With 6 people voting for Glirdan a hero can easily hide in there.

2) The mathematical probability.

3) You may think that for a hero to bandwagon against someone would attract suspicion to them. Yes, that's probably true, but also consider there's other innocent misled wolves in there, so the hero would feel safe. Also being a specialist in the matter Heroes place strategic votes yes, but they don't care who gets eaten as long as it's not them.

So, it's quite likely a hero voted for Glirdan. Am I saying 100% sure there's a hero in there? No, but it's a big enough probability to bet my life on it.

I see some intriguing arguments but Nonnacedak has shown me nothing to suggest he's innocent. He just agrees with Morm in that we should look at myself, Spawn, and Kitanna.

++Nonnacedak

[Boromir88]

Before I go, let it note that if I am alive tomorrow I immediately suspect those going against Spawn.

I'm not saying Spawn isn't a hero, but I see no reason to think she is, and seeing as we've had prior notice she won't be around a lot today, she makes an easy target for heroes to attack and misled wolves to bandwagon. Anyway, that's all I have to say.

[WaynetheGoblin]

Im sorry I havent posted much but im exited about chrismas so I forget about the game. People that bandwagoon are high on my suspect list.
1.Faeral
2.morm
3,rune
4.nonadak
5.Menel
6.Lhuna
7.oddwen
8.formen
9.gurthang
10.kath
11.spawn
12.mith
13.kittana
14.boro
15.eomer
I cant explain my list right now I have to go to school so.
++FAERAL

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Boro

Rune and Farael, the problems with your belief that a hero would not have bandwagoned against Glirdan are:

If you look at my post you will find that I conclude that the Theory fails and only agree with the fact that Heroes might not join a bandwagon every time.



Wayne I would like to know why I am nr. 3 on your list. I did not jump on a bandwagon so that can be it, is it because of Menel's theory or do you have one of your own ?

[WaynetheGoblin]

i am just about to go and yes it is his theory.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I got back only now. I'll go reading toNight's posts before I say anything.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I am so tempted to vote for Wayne for that ridiculous list of his. Maybe it was just meant to be a joke?

Sorry I haven't been around much tonight, but I have read everything and it does seem as if there's not too much info to go on. Not to worry; remember it is rather a large island.

I'll vote for someone who 'feels' wrong to me. I know her better than most of you wolves. She is fiendishly clever and knows strategy inside out. If she is one of the tricky Elves, then she is doing a wonderful job of hiding it.

++KITANNA

More than anything though, it's a reminder to all of you not to get bogged down in voting for just one or two. Spread the votes, and gauge reaction.

Oh, and to anyone critical of me for voting by 'feeling' as opposed to rational deconstruction of the arguments, remember that Elves can construct coherent arguments too. I posit that my method is just as valid; but if you want to dispute this then, by all means, go ahead.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Had another look and Wayne's list becomes clearer: a list in order of suspicion rather than a list of suspects.

Sorry.

[Mithalwen]

Eomer, I think I will follow your example. Formen -could a hero be so stupid..... ? I want to smack him and that is clouding my judgement. But Menel is creeping me out and I don't know why.


++Menetamacil

[Oddwen]

Oh, dear...I try to make sense sometimes, I really do.

And oh shoot...deadline? Yipe!

I am a follower not a leader, and I can agree and sympathize with anyone, which does not help me here.

As a few have pointed out Formendacil is slightly off.

And I really can't put my finger on it, but B88 and spawn don't sit right.

And anyone who says "I trust this or that person" creeps me out. Ergo Rune seems to me suspicious.

And since I don't know Wayne, he seems to me doubly so. And then I read your posts saying "Wayne is Wayne", and it feels like you're trying to allay my fears, so should I pay attention...?

Dang, a vote, dang-double-dang.

Who has not voted? D-spawn and myself? Three-way-tie? No, a four-way! Kath's vote for Rune set that. Is D-spawn stalling, because she's a hero and there are one or more heroes in the tie? *gnaws wrists* Will I be suspected of this too?

One more medicated peaceful moment...