Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[The Saucepan Man]

Can't really argue with yer analysis, Master Scholar. Everthin' that I've said 'as been motivated by a genuine desire to catch these 'ere Wolves. But I don't expect you to take my word for that and I don't expect anyone to take me innocence fer granted like. No one is above suspicion and I certainly ain't regarding anyone (including you) as innocent fer sure. That said, there are most definately those as I regard as more suspicious than others.

My thoughts on Wilwa are genuine. I'm not saying she shouldn't come under suspicion. Just suggesting that people consider things that might look suspicious on the face of it from all angles like before castin' their vote. D'you see?

Now, if you don't mind, I need to get me beauty sleep.

[Gurthang]

Wow, talk about blow for blow. Excellant job on taking out a wolf, though luck it most likely was. Yet it seems the wolves are equally as lucky. Let's hope their luck ends at that.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

Oh no, the seer is gone! I just had a quick look, and it does make sense for SpM to be dreamt of first. What was that with Gurthang claiming to be seer? On the surface, it looks noble that he's drawing the wolves' attention away from the real seer (Jack) but wouldn't that also draw the ranger's protection away (or at least the ranger's best guess)? Please explain, Gurthang.

Well, if all eyes would have been drawn, then it would have worked. Meaning that if both the Ranger and the Wolves would have believed me, then no one would have been killed. Also, I was kind of assuming that the Seer wouldn't be leaving hints this early. Obviously, I was wrong on all counts.

Master Fordim, I appreciate your analysis of my analysis of myself. I would like to note that you eliminate number 4 simply because it failed. Just because it failed to the worst degree doesn't mean that wasn't what I was trying to do. You pushed that aside rather quickly, and that could be seen as wolvish by some.

As far as me being the Cobbler, well, I'm simply not. And don't say that means I'm a wolf, because I'm not that either. (Yeah, like anyone will believe me just saying it.)

Now, call me crazy, but I'm beginning to wonder about Formendacil. I voted for him yesterday to try to distract the wolves and get people talking. I didn't suspect him then. But the thing that is really bugging me is why would the Seer back up my vote? I don't get it. Why not vote for someone who didn't have a vote, rather than voting to put someone into the lead? And Formendacil was the first one to vote for Spawn, but it was an early vote and could very well be a 'safe' wolf vote that went bad. All that isn't much to go on, but I'll be keeping an eye open.

One last thing, everything that Aiwendil makes incredible sense to me. (Not saying I agree 100%)

[Holbytlass]

I'm getting suspicious of Aiwendil because of the finger-pointing between Dancing Spawn and him. Spawn also voted for him early on, so early there were no votes against her so she didn't even know she would have to try and save herself. Aiwendil waits to see what becomes of her(post63) then joins the bandwaggon to be part of bagging a wolf.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

And in a vote as close as the one yesterday, it seems unlikely to me that the either of the other wolves would have voted for Spawn. Those that did vote for Spawn were:

Formendacil
Fordim
Boromir
Aiwendil

I love how he subtlely tries to steer everyone away from the group he's in, because no one has ever heard of a wolf voting for another wolf. The other wolf probably tried to save her and he joined in.

[Formendacil]

Hmm.... Things have taken some really interesting turns since I last visited this thread (busy life... for more details, push 1).

At the moment I'm a bit on the tired side (well, it's just after Midnight, so I ought to be in bed), so I'll not do more than say that, with so many votes coming up for me, it is quite likely that at least one of the Wolves voted for Spawn, thinking it a safe vote. Because of our respectively tied early votes, I would not think Fordim to be guilty, thus narrowing it down to Boromir and Aiwendil.

However, one of the wolves could just as easily have been hiding among the masses that were trying to kill me. I don't suspect the initial voter (Gurthang), but only because of his timing. Jack, of course, is off the hook by reason of his sadly death-proven innocence. That leaves Wilwa.

Of these three, Boromir, Aiwendil, and Wilwa, I think we may find ONE of our wolves, but I think it unlikely that we will find both. As of yet, I have no idea which of the three is most suspicious, but I'll try and sort out some thoughts there in my next post. (Don't expect it for 12 hours or so, though).

Goodnight and adieu!

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm certainly not suggesting we lynch SPM now or in the foreseeable future. But I wouldn't put him on a "likely innocent" list just yet either.

If I were the Seer, I know I would have dreamed of him or Master Fordim. I actually feel quite comfortable (for now) assuming that Jack did indeed dream of Master Saucepan and backed him up based on that dream. In a few days, if Master Saucepan has not been killed by the wolves, I will examine him more closely. For now, he's on the 'look at later' shelf.

And now I'm beginning to wonder about Wilwa, too. Look at this:

Originally Posted by Wilwarin538

So the votes are:

Spawn (2)
Formendacil (2)
Wayne (2)
Lhuna
Aiwendil
Gurthang
Fordim
Jack

Out of the three with 2 votes Formendacil was the one who had more of my suspicion. I would like to vote for Jack but that would be rather piontless and I don't want to be accused later of keeping the double lynch. So I think the best choice would be:

++Formendacil

I hope that wasn't a bad choice.

I just don't know. She broke the tie, which is good in itself. But she broke it by 'saving' a wolf and pushing the death of an unknown. And the fact that she admits that she isn't voting for her top suspect interests me, too. She didn't even vote for her second suspect: me. Both Jack and I received 3's on her list. Rune, Holbytlass and Formendacil all had 4's. So her vote went to someone who could have been as low as 5th on her list. Also notice that all of the five except Holbytlass had already received a vote. If she was more convinced of Jack than she was of Formendacil, she could have voted for him and left the tie-breaking to someone else. It would not have been a wasted vote, it would have made it a four-way tie.

[Lhunardawen]

Oh dear! Mister Jack has been killed, and he was the Seer! May he sleep in peace...

It's a pity our Ranger had not seen this coming; he/she could have protected him. But his hints were a bit too subtle. I myself had no idea he was the Seer either; I just think some of his words were a bit weird. Thanks Mister mormegil for pointing them out and how they hint his Seership. Funnily, no offense sir but that makes me suspect you just a teeny weeny bit because you could have seen that if you and your fellow wolf (if any) were deciding who to kill last night, and just presented it to us toDay in the guise of helpfulness. But don't worry, it's just a teeny weeny bit, it's nothing to worry about.

Good thing we've lynched the lycan dancing spawn (I can be in no way polite to her now), so that gives us one less werewolf to think about. However I believe that at least one of her two remaining companions are among those we consider wise, for they have spotted the Seer when the rest of us (or maybe it's just me) didn't. It could have been luck, but if they were merely counting on luck they could have chosen one of those we consider wise as their victim for the Night; I thought this would be a given for the werewolves to do. But they didn't, and I was wrong.

For now I'll do a bit of reminiscing and see what I can come up with. I'll be back with a relatively early vote, because this time is all my shepherding duties will allow.