Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Celuien · 11-10-2005, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

well it wouldn't do that, Firefoot, if we lynched Wayne and found out he was innocent. The Ranger wouldn't protect wilwa in that scenario.

True. The only scenario when the Ranger would be out of the picture would be if wilwa and Wayne are both wolves and wilwa is giving him up to appear to be the true Seer.

Lalaith · 11-10-2005, 05:39 PM

Yes, exactly, Celuien. To kind of repeat myself again, we've got three possibilities here.
1. Wilwa is telling the truth. We kill Wayne today, he is a wolf, ranger protects wilwa tonight, we vote on who to dream of, and she tells us her dream tomorrow.
2. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is innocent. Ranger protects someone else. We kill Wilwa tomorrow.
3. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is guilty. This is the trickiest of the possibilities. But still ok. If wilwa is still alive the day after tomorrow, we will have two wolves in the bag, even if we accidentally lynch an innocent tomorrow the villager/wolf ratio will be 5-1 if we kill wilwa the day after.

Again, wilwa, I'm really sorry to seem so mean and churlish if you really are a brave seer coming out to help save us. But I think suspicion is for the best in the long run. And I agree with those who say you should say who you have dreamt of.

Lalaith · 11-10-2005, 05:49 PM

I'm going to bed now. It's a bit boring I know, but I can't think of a better idea than to lynch Wayne toDay and see what happens.
But everyone else, feel free to concoct cunning plans in my absence.

Glirdan, there's no point spreading votes around that I can see. The remaining wolves will vote for Wayne now, I expect, but so will most of the rest of us, so it won't tell us much.

littlemanpoet · 11-10-2005, 06:02 PM

Hypothesis:

Wilwa is seer (surprising everybody)
Wayne is a werewolf (surprising nobody)
Firefoot is a known innocent (surprising nobody)

The following have already shown today by their in depth attempts at deciphering the latest information that they are very likely innocent:
Celuien
Kitanna
Lalaith
LMP (look, I have to include myself since it's an hypothesis, and I know I'm innocent, regardless of what the rest of you think)

There is one person that has been recommending that which seems rather counter-productive to me, namely (1) looking at yesterDay's votes to figure out who the werewolves are, and (2) spreading out the votes; I still think that no werewolves were voted for yesterDay. That counter-productive individual is Glirdan. Take note. I say this individual is a prime suspect for werewolf #2.

That leaves the following, amongst whom there is the third werewolf:
Anguirel
Eonwe
tar ancalime

Of these three, Anguirel seems least likely to be a werewolf; Eonwe could be playing innocent with his "please help me" routine, although that could be honest trouble he's having. I'm 50/50 about tar ancalime, who of these three is playing the most subtle, intelligent game, is she's a werewolf. I think these three need to get a serious look.

I recommend that Wilwa, if truly the seer, dream of Glirdan toNight. If she's not the seer, then let the actual seer dream of Glirdan. I'm quite interested to get a response and agreement or disagreement on this. Oh, and if I'm way off and Glirdan is the seer, which I doubt, then he ought to dream of Eonwe or tar ancalime; but I doubt that scenario holds true at all, just trying to cover all the bases of this hypothesis.

Which reminds me to mention one more thing: since I'm an ordinary innocent (you'll just have to make up your mind whether to believe me or not), please don't waste your dream on me, seer.

11-10-2005, 05:49 PM	#3
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	I'm going to bed now. It's a bit boring I know, but I can't think of a better idea than to lynch Wayne toDay and see what happens. But everyone else, feel free to concoct cunning plans in my absence. Glirdan, there's no point spreading votes around that I can see. The remaining wolves will vote for Wayne now, I expect, but so will most of the rest of us, so it won't tell us much. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

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11-10-2005, 05:39 PM	#2
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Yes, exactly, Celuien. To kind of repeat myself again, we've got three possibilities here. 1. Wilwa is telling the truth. We kill Wayne today, he is a wolf, ranger protects wilwa tonight, we vote on who to dream of, and she tells us her dream tomorrow. 2. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is innocent. Ranger protects someone else. We kill Wilwa tomorrow. 3. Wilwa is lying. We kill Wayne today, he is guilty. This is the trickiest of the possibilities. But still ok. If wilwa is still alive the day after tomorrow, we will have two wolves in the bag, even if we accidentally lynch an innocent tomorrow the villager/wolf ratio will be 5-1 if we kill wilwa the day after. Again, wilwa, I'm really sorry to seem so mean and churlish if you really are a brave seer coming out to help save us. But I think suspicion is for the best in the long run. And I agree with those who say you should say who you have dreamt of. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

11-10-2005, 06:02 PM	#4
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	Hypothesis: Wilwa is seer (surprising everybody) Wayne is a werewolf (surprising nobody) Firefoot is a known innocent (surprising nobody) The following have already shown today by their in depth attempts at deciphering the latest information that they are very likely innocent: Celuien Kitanna Lalaith LMP (look, I have to include myself since it's an hypothesis, and I know I'm innocent, regardless of what the rest of you think) There is one person that has been recommending that which seems rather counter-productive to me, namely (1) looking at yesterDay's votes to figure out who the werewolves are, and (2) spreading out the votes; I still think that no werewolves were voted for yesterDay. That counter-productive individual is Glirdan. Take note. I say this individual is a prime suspect for werewolf #2. That leaves the following, amongst whom there is the third werewolf: Anguirel Eonwe tar ancalime Of these three, Anguirel seems least likely to be a werewolf; Eonwe could be playing innocent with his "please help me" routine, although that could be honest trouble he's having. I'm 50/50 about tar ancalime, who of these three is playing the most subtle, intelligent game, is she's a werewolf. I think these three need to get a serious look. I recommend that Wilwa, if truly the seer, dream of Glirdan toNight. If she's not the seer, then let the actual seer dream of Glirdan. I'm quite interested to get a response and agreement or disagreement on this. Oh, and if I'm way off and Glirdan is the seer, which I doubt, then he ought to dream of Eonwe or tar ancalime; but I doubt that scenario holds true at all, just trying to cover all the bases of this hypothesis. Which reminds me to mention one more thing: since I'm an ordinary innocent (you'll just have to make up your mind whether to believe me or not), please don't waste your dream on me, seer.