Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[Firefoot]

I can't say I really understand all this talk of LMP being the seer - it seems pretty obvious to me that he is not, or why would he be saying the things he is? A seer needs to be much more subtle than that. I would be shocked if LMP is the Seer.

That being said, I also do not think that LMP is a wolf - it seems like a stupid plan to deliberately draw attention to yourself by "faking" as the Seer. People almost unfailingly get lynched for threatening that "you'll be sorry if you lynch me." I would expect something a little more sophisticated from LMP - though I suppose it could be a bluff. I just don't think it is, though.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

Yes. If you think someone is a seer, good grief, don't say that! Let's just point our most valuable asset out to the wolves, why don't we?

The prime lynching suspects at the moment seem to be Lalaith, Wilwa, LMP, and tar-ancalime. I don't want to vote for Lalaith; I don't feel very suspicious of her at all right now. I won't be voting for LMP, either - especially since I will very likely be voting in the next hour, or trying to cut it very close. I also am not terribly suspicious of Wilwa right now. That would leave tar. My vote will likely be going to her at this point - either that or Menel or Eonwe, but neither of them seem to be getting much support as far as lynching goes.

[tar-ancalime]

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing.

That's where you're wrong, Anguirel dah-ling. If I were a wolf, I would be NO ONE's backup singer.

Gallows humor aside, I'm quite interested in your recent posts. First this:

Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

Then this:

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

A callous disregard for the life of a (quite possibly) innocent villager, especially in regard to Wilwa, but then, someone in the village has got to have the stomach for it, eh?

I don't think that lynching one of your hypothetical hench-wolves would tell us anything about lmp, who does seem to be your main target toDAY. I say this not only because I'm one of them, but because really, where would it get us? Unless Wilwa really is a wolf, of course, and then we've got one in the bag...

I give lmp a lot of credit, and I don't see him going to pieces over ANY lynching, especially one that you overtly say is to "test" him. If he's the one you want, he's the one you should go after (as you seem to recognize in the second post that I quoted).

I have to say that my suspicion of you is fading as this DAY progresses. I'm now inclined to think that you're really trying to parse this out with the rest of us, and that (like me) your manner sometimes gets you in trouble.

(Sorry--this is a two-part post--the above is mostly directed to Anguirel, while the below is a gathering of thoughts before voting.)

I'm also less wary of Lalaith than I was earlier--I have to admit that I may have been swayed a little by Wilwa's early vehemence. Also, having now been on the receiving end of one of lmp's less-trusting posts myself, I can understand the impulse to argue with him a lot better than I could before.

As for lmp himself, I am puzzled. He seems to have two faces: one accusatory, argumentative, and unyielding (as in the discussion of time zones yesterDAY); and the other genuinely puzzled, bemused, willing to change his mind, and trying to save our poor village. Lalaith has been characterized as a Jekyll/Hyde villager, but I think the appellation is more apt for our undertaker.

Wilwa is growing more and more suspicious to me as the DAY progresses. Early vitriol against Lalaith followed by nothing at all (except repeated defenses of her vote, which I'm tempted to attribute to the repeated questionings of her vote). I have a few hours yet before I'll have to cast my vote, and I do hope to see some more from her before I do so.

I would also like to see more substance from Kath. Her posts have been few but incisive, just the kind of thing you might expect from a wary wolf.

Wayne, Menel, where are you? We need you!

So, my suspicions have changed somewhat since my (evidently itself suspicious) post of this morning. I now suspect:

(strongly)
lmp
wilwa

(very mildly, mostly due to lack of input, which may or may not be fair)
Kath
Wayne
Menel

Anguirel and Lalaith can consider themselves off the hook, at least for the moment.

Unless something changes either Wilwa (for extreme vitriol) or lmp (for unnecessary pot-stirring and possible smoke-and-mirror act) is likely to get my vote.

[tar-ancalime]

Firefoot:

Anything I can do to change your mind?

[littlemanpoet]

Work the simplest theory that accounts for all the variables.

Easier said than done.

For the record:

1) I have not read any posts since my vote, so if anything looks weird as if I've ignored someone's post, or that I haven't noticed that I'm going to get lynched, I haven't read that far yet.

2) The purpose of this "for the record" is the proverbial "if I die" scenario, intended to help the innocent villagers as much as possible, and also "calling the werewolves out", as it were. That is, I really don't think they'll try to kill me toNight because I draw too much suspicion away from them. That is, unless I'm on target with my observations as to who the feral creatures are, then they may think it wise to 'off' me, even though their number one target is obviously the seer. So I'll probably survive the Night if I'm not lynched toDay.

3) The following people I consider innocent because of their worthy and/or honest appearing contributions (in alphabetical order):
Anguirel
Celuien
Firefoot
Lalaith
Granted, not much of a list; but if we can consider these four to be provisional "known innocents", as it were, and if we're lucky enough to be right about them, we've got a big "one up" on the werewolves. Just an observation.

4) I'm leaning innocent with:
tar ancalime - her contributions seem to be on the up and up, although a werewolvish reading can be made of them; same is probably true of most of us, however.

5) The following people are 50/50 with me, having contributed but being questionable:
Glirdan
Kath
Kitanna
I'm not sure on these three. They may be innocent, they may not be.

6) The following people seem suspicious to me:
Eonwe - too quiet and his posts haven't really been full of meat.
Meneltarmacil - again, too quiet.
Wayne - way too quiet; however, as strongly as I can, I abjure, recommend, etc., that he not be the one we try to lynch first. If he is one of the werewolves, we should wait to lynch him until there are only 7 total villagers left & no werewolves have been killed; because he may be gifted, and we don't want to run the risk of killing off one of our primary assets; if he hasn't proven useful by the time I've suggested above, then lynch him.
Wilwa - I'm afraid that we're wrong about her, but I've already voted. If she's innocent, I strorngly suggest that we need to take a good hard look at the three remaining suspicious on my list.

There. That's all.

Edit: Having cross-posted with a boatload of folks, I am having second thoughts about Eonwe, who seems honest to me; so that means that I'm also having second thoughts about those 50/50 people .... at least one of them would have to be a werewolf, if not Eonwe or Wilwarin.

[WaynetheGoblin]

I think i will vote
++wilwa
She voted for bergil because he voted for her that is why and we have a better chanch to get a wolf with a double.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Accusations had been hurling around, but finally the Villagers had made their decision. They couldn't afford to keep Meneltarmacil around any longer. Pitchforks aloft the Villagers approached Meneltarmacil whom they had pinned in the corner of the village square. With admirable pitch-in-and-help spirit they prepared to stir up his guts, when they suddenly heard strange voices...

“Mutton yesterday, mutton today, and blimey, if it don’t look like mutton again tomorrer.”

Dumbfounded the villagers watched three enormous figures strolling into sight from the edge of the woods. Trolls! In a twinkling of an eye, the square was empty, excluding Meneltarmacil, who was cowering in the corner, where the villagers had left him.

The three trolls were sincerely happy to find Meneltarmacil, who was far from a mutton. Out of sheer joy, the trolls sat on him, roasted him and finally minced him fine and boiled him. After that little scene, the trolls danced away humming cheerfully and picking their teeth with oak saplings. Confused and extremely nauseous, the villagers returned to the square to collect Meneltarmacil's remnants and in silence they buried the trolls' left-overs.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kath - writer
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord)- sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2

Score:
Villagers: 12
Wolves: 3

It is now Night 3. It ends in 24 hours... you know, the usual.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

"As you can see, when you look at me,
I'm pieces of what I used to be"

Fearing the worst and hoping for the best, Shamville woke up for the rising of the Sun, which grimaced at the drowsy townspeople as it climbed above their heads. In the usual fashion the lot gathered together to check the most recent head count only to discover that the volume of the villagers had yet again decreased with one. The writer was gone.

The villagers walked glumly to Kath's cottage. They saw already from far that her door had been torn off its hinges and dozens of reams of paper laid helter-skelter covering her front yard like snow. Guessing that it wouldn't be anything nice that awaited them, the villagers cautiously stepped over paper heaps and entered Kath's cabin.

It wasn't very tidy inside the house, either. Broken ink bottles and blood had stained Kath's board floor dark violet and there were quills and parchments all over the place. As the villagers stumbled into Kath's living room, they discovered that every single book of Kath's usually neatly organized bookshelf had been thrown on the floor, and in the middle of the mess, the villagers found their writer. Well, at least they found her arms, brain, ears, fingers, head, legs, toes and torso. The shelves had been filled with different body parts of Kath's - in alphabetical order, of course, and that had been the end of her story.



Living:
Anguirel - jester
Celuien - luthier
Eonwe - militiaman
Firefoot - traveller who has a dog
Glirdan - undead with Michael Jackson's nose
Kitanna - goat herder
Lalaith - goosegirl
littlemanpoet - village undertaker
tar-ancalime - charlatan
WaynetheGoblin - goldsmith
Wilwarin538 - official town daydreamer

Dead:
dancing spawn of ungoliant(mod) - mangled, tangled and strangled in fishing nets on Night 1
Bergil(ord) - hanged to death with profitable consequences on Day 1
Kuruharan(ord) - half devoured and prepared to be turned into haggis on Night 2
Meneltarmacil(ord) - sat on, roasted, minced and boiled by three passing by trolls on Day 2
Kath(ord) - chopped up and organized alphabetically on Night 3

Score:
Villagers: 11
Wolves: 3

It is now Day 3. Wolves, please stop PMing. Villagers, you may start talking. The Day ends in 24 hours at 9:00 pm. GMT. Have fun!

[Glirdan]

Another day and two more innocents come to join me underground. Tis a sad day today, losing our village writer. Perhaps she left some knowledge amongst her writings that we have missed. I will go back and take a look. I also will be looking closely at those who voted for Kath or dear Menel, may you rest in peace. There has to be a Wolf in there. The votes weren't as spaced out as they were on Day 1.

My suspicions still stand, yet I might find something more from the others who voted for Menel. I will be back with an analysis shortly.

[Glirdan]

Here's a list of how yesterDay's voting proceded:

Lalaith, 1, (Glirdan)
Wilwa, 4, (Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp,Wayne)
Menel, 3, (Firefoot,Eonwe,Kath)
lmp, 1, (tar)

Now this really doesn't add up!?!? By the looks of things, Wilwa should have been the one to get lynched, not Menel!! What I think happened is that Wayne's late vote wasn't counted.

Firefoot, Eonwe, and Kath all voted for Menel. We now know that Kath is innocent which leaves Firefoot and Eonwe. Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp and Wayne all voted for Wilwa, who was supposed to be lynched but wasn't due to the lateness of Wayne's vote.

Now here's a little analysis on all of those people:

Wayne: His late vote makes him really suspicious. Maybe he didn't mean to vote that late, but maybe he did mean to vote late. If he is a Wolf, than he's doing that which everyone expects, which means he's either innocent or a very daring Wolf. His quietness is troubling as well. He provided no explanation as to why he was voting Wilwa which makes me think either he's a Wolf and she's innocent, she's a Wolf and he's innocent or there both Wolves and Wilwa told him to vote for her because she thought she was going to get lynched.

Eonwe: Haven't really looked closely on him since Day 1. He voted for Menel and gave no reason as to why. He just said don't ask why. Now that makes him look a little more suspicious in my eyes.

Lalaith: I strongly suspected yesterDay and still kind of do today. She definetly is not cleared yet. She voted for Wilwa because of the attack that Wilwa did on her yesterDay. However, I'd have to agree with Wilwa on one point, no matter how much I suspect her, and that's the fact that Lalaith has been acting very strange. Her vote for Wilwa is like a type of revenge for the attack on her which makes me suspect her even more.

Lmp: Has been under a great deal of suspicion, from me included. Voted for Wilwa because of her protesting to much and didn't trust her from the get go. Not as suspicious as much as others, yet still deserves watching.

Kitanna: First to vote for Wilwa. Voted for her because of the little argument that was going on between them and sugested they might be in league. Also because of her over defensiveness.

Firefoot: Hasn't had a whole lot of suspicion from anyone. First vote for Menel because Menel said little and it scared her. I agree that this is not the usual Menel, yet I wasn't scared enought to vote for him. I'll keep an eye on her, but that's about it.

I see that while I've been typing this, people have posted. Wilwa saying she's the Seer and that Wayne's a Wolf, well, I trust it, but I don't think we should all vote for him. I think we should spread our votes just a little. That way, we might be able to draw out another Wolf. So I'll wait to vote for a little while.

[Firefoot]

++Meneltarmacil

I'm just not convinced enough of tar-ancalime's guilt (it's just that one post that really seems suspicious to me), and what little Menel has said has me on edge.

[Firefoot]

tar - I hadn't seen your comment before posting my vote (top of the page, you know). I really just don't know what to think of you - but that judgment (on my part) will have to wait until the next Day.

[Lalaith]

I've been going through the list trying out different wolf combos, and one triumvirate just occurred to me which kind of works, logically:

Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin.

What they have in common is that they keep suspecting each other but always finding someone else that they suspect a little bit more, to actually vote for.
I'm not entirely convinced of this theory myself - it's a bit obvious! - but I'm tossing it into the pot. What do the rest of you think?

[Anguirel]

It seems unlikely to me purely in terms of statistics that all three of those quiet ones would be wolves. Presumably the best way to test this theory would be lynching Wilwa, an option which is turning into something of a consensus view-and I deeply distrust consensuses. The quorum blanket decisions of "wise men". Again it smacks of the stultifying rigidity Kuru warned against.

I shall vote, I expect, either for Meneltarmacil or littlemanpoet-though I still find tar-ancalime's manipulation of the Quip Modest disturbing, I admire the skill of her defence. She should consider a job as a jester...Menel and LMP are at polar opposites in terms of my theories, and I tend to think LMP's death would both tell us more and rid us of the dangerous perception that everything he says is gospel. Notice how that second plan of his sank like a stone into a pond? That, my dear fools, gives me a little hope.

*wait for it* A fool's hope.

[Eonwe]

ok just a thought. its about time (statistically, alhtough i hate thinking of it it those terms) that wayne was a wolf. if he just played his game as usual, nobody would really think anything of it. so yeah, i don't want write him off. YOU NEED TO TALK SOME, MY FRIEND!!! or i will want to lynch you.

suspicions list. anguirel: a wise man once said (well something along the lines of), "if you look at a wolf's posts, they may not be all confuseing and unhelpful. that is the most dangerous kind. the kind that looks like a logical innocent." so anguirel fits that bill perfectly. (edit and i think he is teh perfect person to use this type of upfront in teh limelight approach to remaining unsusicious.)

lmp: there are a number of issues here. some talk of the seer was brought up. my goodness, why did everyone push him over teh edge. if he's the seer, leave him alown. if he's not teh seer adn is hinting he is, he must a wolf (or an innocent, but that is irrelavent, cuz the wolves will just kill him). just let him have his game adn when the seer dies, we'll kill 'im! just let it play its course that's wot i say.

as for gospel turth of lmp, until the seer or ranger gives us some known innocents my word is the only gospel i konw of (for me taht is ). i look at whateverone says adn make my own judgemetns (see lmp's plans a and b).

as for if he's a wolf, i don't think a wolf would hint a being the seer. its just to risky for when the seer comes out or dies. however, yes there is still that desparate gamble lmp could be making. right now i'll give him teh benefit of teh doubt.

i think we need to look at the last couple people taht voted. taht would be celuein, kittana, me and lalaith. because a wolf doesn't want his vote noticed up on the first day, and certainly doesn't want it to count in the kill. as im lazy and need to study, ill leave that up to you though .

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I've been going through the list trying out different wolf combos, and one triumvirate just occurred to me which kind of works, logically:

Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin.

What they have in common is that they keep suspecting each other but always finding someone else that they suspect a little bit more, to actually vote for.
I'm not entirely convinced of this theory myself - it's a bit obvious! - but I'm tossing it into the pot. What do the rest of you think?

Good thought. It seems like a reasonable possibility.

[littlemanpoet]

Despite my antipathy for heroic suicides, I'm tempted to vote for myself, just to "stir the pot". But I won't. I'd rather be the object of enough suspicion that I'm lynched, and let the rest of you see to the corpses.

++ Wilwarin

has seemed rather suspicious to me from the get-go, her vote yesterDay not helping, and her "protesting too much" today.

[Meneltarmacil]

Honestly, I do not know whether or not LMP is innocent. If I was a wolf (which I certainly am not), I don't think I'd call for a lynching toDay if I really thought he was the Seer. I would have mentioned it to the other Wolves last Night and probably made plans to kill him in his sleep.

However, it does seem pretty obvious that he was trying to look like the Seer, especially in this post:

That having been said, I'll spend the Night dreaming up a new plan, if that helps to motivate discussion. We shall see what we shall see.

That hint was extremely obvious, and he said something very similar afterward. I actually thought he was the Seer at first, and figured that he'd made a mistake. I started suspecting him after I noticed he hadn't died last Night. Either we have some really stupid wolves running around, or LMP is a wolf. I seriously doubt that he is actually the Seer.

[Meneltarmacil]

Please forgive the double-post.

As for why I'd have Glirdan, I noticed, along with everyone else, that he'd been acting rather odd and that he defended himself rather, uh, viciously as well.

However, today, I'll vote for

++littlemanpoet

[Eonwe]

well, well, well...

im at a loss right now. don't really know which direction to take. i seem to be a bit out of the loop and am haveing a hard time keeping up wiht arguemtns and stuff. again, if you could all quote useing names and post numbers, that would help me allot...

votes are now:

Lalaith, 1, (Glirdan)
Wilwa, 3, (Kitanna, Lalaith, lmp)
Menel, 3, (Firefoot, celuien, ang)
lmp, 2, (tar, menel)

think that's right...

i would strongly discourage voting lmp. there is always teh chance teh wolves will kill him to be sure, that he could be the seer, and that the ranger would protect him, thereby gaining us an extral day adn a known innocent. if we're gonna lynch him, it should be in a few days, when we have more info on him and the wolves have been given a chance to do their thing.

i think ill go with

++menel

don't ask me why. im doing my best to keep up with schoolwork (honestly!) and that is why i have been away so much and haven't really had much to say. gotta go.

[Kath]

I am so sorry I've been out of all this today and this is the only time I have now to talk.

I said I'd have a look at Menel and wilwa since they are gaining all the votes so:

Menel:
An apology for not voting, says he would have voted for Glirdan.
Thinks LMP could be a wolf because he wasn't killed even though he had been dropping hints about being the Seer all say.
Then again suspects LMP .
Still unsure over Glirdan.
Votes for LMP.

The thing is that I find it hard to believe that Menel can really have thought LMP was the Seer. The hints dropped are either so obvious as to be noticed by all as a distraction or LMP is playing one hell of a bluff.

wilwa:
A voting list.
Quick list of suspects, with Lalaith at the top.
Defends herself against suspicion about Bergil's death.
Reasons for suspecting Lalaith, which are reasonable though they could be explained if the posts were made early morning or late night.
Gives a very vague explanation for suspecting Glirdan.
The next three posts are very defensive - like yesterDay's.
And no vote I don't think - odd.

Ok I'm really close on the deadline now so I'm going to have to vote and I can't in all good conscience cause a double lynching so:

++MENEL