Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIII: Enter Shamville

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Basically I didn't plan to vote for Bergil 2nd, it's just the timing of mine and Wayne's posts.

Thanks for pointing that out, Wilwa. I'll take it into my considerations.

[Kath]

Is it because he hit close to the mark on some accusations and the Wolves thought he might guess at them and reveal them?

Well, let's have a look at who he accused.

littlemanpoet is developing some strange habits

Don't know whether to count this really as it was in his first post. But maybe he saw something early on.

I must note that littlemanpoet has been talking...a lot. This is not necessarily bad. In fact, it might be good. On the other hand, it might indicate he is unduly excited about...something.

Then again perhaps against LMP.

And that was actually all we had from him. So LMP - would you like to refute the words of the dead?

[Anguirel]

LMP, all this heavily dropped "lynch me and you'll regret it" nonsense implicates you still further. A Seer does not monopolise the village. A Seer does not not take obvious control of events until he has accrued a lot of information and it's worth the risk.

Simply put, Seers should be neither heard nor seen. You've accomplished both. If you are the Seer, your life expectancy is already no longer than a mayfly's. Any wolves worth their whiskers will have picked up on your heavy, but dreadfully premature, hints by now. That's why I'm speaking honestly. I genuinely think that if you're the Seer, (and I see that as unlikely, because I thought you were supposed to be cunning and skilful) your mileage is run.

But if you're a wolf, you're hoping to pacify a village that's starting to turn on you. Well done. Many villagers seem to think you beyond consideration already. I take that as a sign of your guilt in itself. Where wise men make assumptions and jump to false conclusions, there it is the fool's task to point out their mistakes. Trusting you automatically purely because you're saying enough words to drown us all in is one.

I think that you're also hoping to draw out the real Seer. Our real soothsayer will be wise to that, I'm sure.

If you are not a wolf, LMP, you will die tonight. You're a dead investment. A sunk equity. A safe vote.

You keep trying to put yourself in the clear by babbling about how there are three wolves, not one. I am aware of that. I also know enough of you to know that you will be the ringleader, the organiser, the captain and commander; and I will not allow you to bluster your way out of the net.

Though incidentally I'm inclined to thinktar-ancalime and wilwa to be your fanged backing. Perhaps we should lynch wilwa to test you. She seems to have an interesting faith in your abilities.

[Lalaith]

I think it is best to assume we are dealing with clever wolves. At this stage in the game, clever wolves will be going all out to kill the person they think might be the Seer. That is obvious. Therefore, the belief, voiced by myself, tar-a and Anguirel, that the wolves thought Kuru might be the Seer, is actually an obvious statement.
(Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.)

So what else do wolves do? Firstly, unlike the rest of us, they know exactly who is innocent. So one way to spot a wolf is by looking for people who seem to be theorising and searching as frantically as the rest of us for clues, but who then don't seem to follow through - whose conclusions seem either unreasonable or sloppy. This is why I was giving LMP a hard time yesterday and this morning, his insistence on people following his plan in accordance with his own timezone seemed unreasonable and therefore wolvish.

Another thing wolves do is to work out a strategy at night to avoid any of their number being lynched. (Of course, there are exceptions to this, when one of their number is the object of general suspicion and the others need to distance themselves.) The best way for wolves to protect each other is by starting a bandwagon against an innocent they think is likely to be an acceptable suspect to the rest of the villagers. This is where people like Wayne come in very handy for wolves, which is why I was quite reluctant to vote for him yesterday. It is also why I feel very suspicious of wilwa's abrupt attack on me this morning - an early start of a bandwagon, I wondered - although I know she has time constraints which could explain her hastiness.

Now, someone is inevitably going to come along and say "oh look how much Lalaith knows about wolves, how suspicious". But that sort of comment would be silly and disingenuous - without wanting to break spawn's rules, we are all veterans here.

As for the points discussed so far today.
I like a lot of tar-a says, although it doesn't necessarily absolve her in my eyes. If Ang and LMP were both wolves, (lord help us!) this sort of bickering is very likely how they would play it.
It is strange and ironic that Glirdan, who was my chief suspect yesterday, votes for me today.

I don't want to make anymore mistakes, two is my max

Wilwa, my dear, getting me lynched will be definitely be your second mistake.

[littlemanpoet]

I've slept on things in a hole I dug
and almost drowned because it rained.
Those holes really are quite snug,
just need to figure how to get them drained.

There are some people who are playing too sloppy to be werewolves. Werewolves would take more care with what they say because they have more invested. The sloppy people betray their innocence, so to speak, by not caring what people think of what they say. On these grounds, I don't think Lalaith is a werewolf. The same reasoning seems to implicate Anguirel's innocence. This does happen to go for me too, but I'll leave that to othe judgement of the rest of you.

There are a few people who seem to be taking great care as to their choice of words. These are Wilwa & tar ancalime. One of these two will probably get my vote, but that's not a guarantee; just in case someone wants to later accuse me (should I survive the Day or Night) of not being consistent.

Whereas Eonwe & Kitanna cast the most suspicious votes yesterDay, as I reckon it, they don't seem particularly feral, especially not Kitanna.

I was tempted to suggest that we lynch Lalaith tonight on the strength of how many people suspect her, as well as on the fact that she was the swing vote. My rationale was that if she turned out to be a werewolf, it would be easy to spot whom she had been trying to protect, and that if she didn't turn out to be one, then we're no worse off than we might be lynching someone else, as long as she's not gifted. But I really doubt that she's a werewolf.

And Lalaith & Anguirel, I'm not writing this to allay your suspicions of me. Suspect away! I'm just putting forth my thinking, in hopes of helping us all to a good decision toDay.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, sure, I'm the seer, ol' buddy Ang.

Real Seer, don't come out and say I'm not the seer, because obviously I'm not. Do the wise thing. Thank you.

[Anguirel]

Then why, LMP, oh why, did you go on about sleeping arrangements and dreaming? Why did you stress that we'd regret lynching you?

No, I still think you're a desperate wolf; and I believe that either Wilwa or tar-ancalime-not both-growls alongside you.

However, confronting LMP's Seer mask was a reckless manouevre, and though as it happens I don't think he is the Seer, had he been it might have scuppered us. Aside from myself, Menel pointed out LMP's Seerish nuances. This implicates Menel and I strongly, and I am tempted to go for Menel, my initial Day One suspect-in the event of LMP's innocence, he could very well be a wolf.

I am suspicious of the growing movement against Wilwa-just too obvious-but I am also prepared to clear the other combatant Lalaith, partly because she is not acquiescing to LMP's imposition of his own innocence. If I'm wrong, she should also be examined. So I have two partially formed triumvirates:

If LMP is guilty

LMP, tar-ancalime?, wilwa?, Firefoot?

If he's innocent

Menel, Lalaith, Firefoot? and admittedly, for the rest of you, Anguirel?

The obvious solution? Use LMP as the touchstone. I give his intelligence enough credit to doubt that he's Gifted; he's either an extremely dangerous wolf or a villager whose death would give us a lot of information. It's a win-win situation for us.

I've thrown Firefoot in on both sides because I'm scared witless of her guile.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Celuien, I think you misunderstood me, I never thought Kuru was the Seer. I have my own theories on that, which I'm certainly not going to discuss openly when wolves are listening.

Fair enough. I'll let that pass, then. For what it's worth, on reconsideration, I find you far less suspicious. The Wayne/Glirdan/wilwarin combination suggested is interesting, one which I'll need to give more thought before voting today.

Current votes:
Lalaith (Glirdan)
Wilwa (Kitanna)
Menel (Firefoot)

To be continued in a while...

[Anguirel]

I'm going to replace tar-ancalime on my proposed LMP triumvirate with Kitanna. Re-reading her posts, I suddenly find the implicit belief she has in anything that stems from the undertaker's pen rather alarming. But as tar-ancalime suggested, we need to destroy the principle viper first, so my primary target will remain LMP with Menel as a contingency plan. I shall vote an hour or so before the deadline as I have to rush off and declaim some Virgil and Cicero...this fool does Classics...

[Lalaith]

Ok, I've had a think. The worst thing that can happen to the village is that we accidentally lynch the seer.
Now, being innocent myself I can't know for definite who is a wolf and who is innocent. But there is one person I know cannot be the seer, and that is wilwarin, because of her attack on me. I'm suspicious of her, but I can't be sure she's a wolf. However, I can promise you all that by lynching her we at least run no risk of lynching the seer.

So, by this logic:
++wilwarin

PS Actually, I've thought of one very convoluted scenario whereby wilwarin could be the seer. If she went after me, and I am then lynched and shown to be innocent, this would dispel any later doubt by wolves that she is the seer.
However, this is very byzantine, and not at all wilwa's style I think. So, I still feel almost 100% confident in making that promise...

[Celuien]

Okay, let's see what the wayne/wilwa/glirdan combo gives us:

Wilwa: as the loudest one of the triumvirate, wilwa would be the leader of daytime arguments from the wolves' side to steer votes toward innocents. Also protects Glirdan-wolf by keeping him at arms length with mild jabs but at the same time agreeing with him. Note his early vote for Wilwa's prime suspect, Lalaith.
Glirdan: a less noisy version of Wilwa, stirring just enough controversy with her to keep them separated, but, again, voting with her. Could be a wolf tag along with an innocent wilwa, or a wolf pair strategy.
Wayne: the annoying enigma. Gets suspected by Glirdan today after Wilwa's suspicion of him yesterday. Please correct me if I've missed something, but I think Wilwa dropped all accusation of Wayne today (I should recheck posts to confirm). And so we have a circular turn-taking to keep distance between all three members of the wolf group in this theory. Notice also that everyone wants to give him the benefit of the doubt for his silence, making him a candidate to remain to the as the one surviving wolf - always suspected, but never enough to win a majority vote.

It all seems logical, but far too easy.

Back to the lmp conundrum...

While too noisy to be the Seer, I think he's also too noisy to be a smart wolf. And I'm pretty certain that if he were a wolf, lmp would be very smart about it. Far too smart to wind up the subject of such prominent debate on days 1 and 2, no matter how much our impetuous jester pushed him. I'm not sure what his strategy his, but at this point, I doubt it's a wolvish plan. And again, I'm willing to clear Anguirel for similar reasons. Too impulsive to be a wolf. What I think we're seeing is the interplay of two innocents absorbed in their own arguments with each other.

So who am I leaning toward for the upcoming vote, not in order of preference?
1) Possibly Glirdan to test the combination posited by Lalaith. He has behaved oddly throughout the past two days, and if he is guilty, it pretty much clears Lalaith. Wilwa then looks more suspicious, although the possibility of a Glirdan-wolf tagging along with an innocent Wilwa to both hide and cast doubt on her in the event of his being discovered is not eliminated. Plus, I thought that his lumping tar and me in with Wayne for silence was strange.
2) Menel - who already has one vote from Firefoot for what I agree are logical reasons and somewhat uncharacteristic silence today. And, since I think lmp is probably innocent, it's a chance to test Anguirel's other wolf pairing without voting for Lal, since I am currently against voting for her. Or, of course, to break a tie.
3) Wayne - again. Out of frustration and to see if the triplet is plausible.
4) Wilwa - theory testing as above or to break a tie.

And as a final disclaimer, all of this is subject to last minute modification and retraction.