TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all. I would be a poor player (and I hope that despite being a first time gamer here, I'm not stupid) if I took your words at face value. You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Yes, I was involved in Shelob's lynching, but at that time (second day, with little evidence to go on) I thought I had reason to suspect her. The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor

Quite the contrary, she says "I'm not going to discount him" which makes me think she didn't dream of him

Feanor I'm not sure why you are being so obtuse but please read this again posted by Firefoot in post 210

Originally Posted by Firefoot

My top suspect is still Formendacil, though I'm starting to think that a connection between him and Underhill is too far-fetched. Underhill also seems to have been very consistent. He's starting to drop off my radar a bit. So one of the things I will be looking for is who else Formen might be associated with, as well as other possible pairs of wolves. At this point, there should be some clues to who our wolves are, whether in voting or somewhere else.

I believe this was her first post of the day and up until this point she strongly suspected Mister Underhill but now she doesn't suspect him much? Why the sudden change? She still suspects Formendacil though. My theory after quickly reading all of her posts is that Night 1 she dreamt of me, Night 2 Formendacil and Night 3 Mister Underhill. It would make sense if you read her post to think of her dreams as those people in that order. So no I do not believe, as you do now too, that she dreamt of you.

My plan will be rolled out shortly and I believe, if implemented, will be a great value to the village.

[Boromir88]

Boromir, as far as I know, you are an experienced Werewolf player. I do not know your past record, i.e. which roles you have played, but I credit you with the intelligence and chutzpah to dupe us all.

I'm grateful for the compliment. I'll have you know I tell it like it is. I tell you what I think. You can either take what I say and accept it or not. I can say it's your own loss (unless you're the last wolf) if I'm lynched.

You're right, you can't trust me either, but please don't expect me to believe you without some reason!

Bringing down another wolf, if anything isn't good enough?

Enough with these crazy and ludicrous theories about wolves backstabbing eachother. Sometimes the facts are right in front of your face and you're too busy concentrating on wild and whacky theories to see who the real villains are.

The only way to avoid innocent victims is by knowing who is or is not a werewolf - and only werewolves have that information! (And the seer, but only for those few nights...)

Or a good judge of character and what werewolves do.

I didn't think Anguirel and Eomer were wolves even when voting for me, because wolves don't typically vote early and Anguirel just picked a random person who happened to be me and on Day 1, that's really all you can do.

I didn't think Shelob or Lhuna were wolves because they were quiet, and wolves aren't usually quiet. I've learned not to vote for quiet people. You got to watch out for the ones that don't say a lot, but say a good amount and try to mold opinion or bandwagon. And often flip-flop to adjust to the public opinion.

I think Fea is being set up. While it's possible that she may be a wolf doing a bold bluff wolves love to set people up. As they tried to do on Day 1 to me. (by killing Eomer). I think Fea is being set up because coming into the closing of the day her name was being thrown in there with Encai's and she'd be an easy target to go after the next day. Luckily needless to say, I stepped up and said she was being set up. (Though again she still may be a wolf).

You have a right to be defensive, but it can make you look like you have a reason.

Umm...maybe because I'm innocent and as far as I'm concerned have been the best judge to who's a wolf and who's not.

Having said all this, I'm now cooled in my suspicion of Estelyn. Her concerns seem geniune to me. I will give you this, crazy theories are fun to think of, and trying to catch a bluff, but going with your gut feeling and the obvious "wolf" traits is what gets the villagers to victory.

[Boromir88]

One thing that I would like to hear from Boromir is what was the comment about if you die Encai will certainly die too? Please explain.~mormegil

I was more kidding. On Day 1 Anguirel and Eomer both voted for me. Anguirel was hanged, Eomer was killed. So I went along and just said people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do.

Fea, I disagree with the double-lynching. One because, I'm not a wolf. Two, Encai who I think is the most wolfish one may not be. We have a strong advantage 6-1, if we do a double lynching of myself and Encai by the next day the villagers will be up 3-1. Still an advantage but if you don't catch that last wolf, it's over, villagers lose. No, a double-lynching is something I think a wolf would want in this situation.

Hey, everyone thinks I'm a wolf. It's funny how morm, firefoot, lmp find a wolf and they're praised as saviours. I catch a wolf and it would make me a backstabber to Formendacil, if I was a wolf. I'm going to say...LYNCH ME, so I'm out of everyone's problems, and you can get to see who the real wolves are. I do say I strongly disagree with Fea's plan of a double-lynching.

[mormegil]

Boromir I hope I can believe you that you were trying to pretend to be the seer, I for one bought into it. I think the reason I bought into it though was because I believed Encai to be guilty, seemingly the wolf did not which, if you are innocent, would have a clearing effect upon Encai if you follow me.

My plan is simple and it follows along with what Fea said, I think we should do a double lynching today orchestrated by Mister Underhill and me. I use us for two reasons we are innocent and live in areas that allow us to vote the last minute. I would recommend that we choose two people and get them lynched together. I use this strategy because now that there aren't any gifteds left it's most likely that known innocents will die next that is Mister Underhill and me. So we need to capitalize on these two nights where we will have innocents with us. We are currently 7 villagers 2 known innocents so 5 total if we kill two that happen to not be a wolf we will be down to 4 and can do a possible double lynching the next day. We may actually be able to spot the wolf trying to influence the vote or abstain. This is our best shot.

Now it is important that we pick correctly today so as to avoid a difficult situation tomorrow. As for myself I am convinced of Underhill's innocence and it will be difficult to convince me otherwise.

[the guy who be short]

I'm willing to go with that. I also support Fea's two suspects, namely, Boromir and Encai.

[mormegil]

Well let it be said though that while we want to catch the wolf in this double lynching attempt at least one innocent will die. This means that any true innocent should be willing to give his/her life for the good of the village. I'm not sure I agree with those two in conjunction. I see it as if Encai is innocent Boro could be a wolf and therefore lynched the next day and vice versa too. Now I would like to see Fea or TGWBS on the list too or possibly Esty.

[Boromir88]

I'm going to come flat out I will do whatever it takes to stop a double-lynching, unless someone here can convince me otherwise.

Ok, so let's say Encai's a wolf, and we do the double lynching we win! Yay!

But let's take the consequences and think if she isn't. Ok, so right now it's me and Encai. If Encai's not a wolf you will be down, 3-1, getting one more day to catch a wolf.

Which may seem easy to go after, but it could be more difficult then you think. Who would be the last wolf if Encai doesnt' turn out to be. Fea, the one who proposed the double-lynching? Morm or tgwbs who jumped onto the idea? See what I'm saying. There's disaster just simply waiting if there's a double-lynching. We have a strong advantage in numbers, let's keep it that way.

I will sacrifice myself, if so desired, so you guys can finally see that I'm innocent, and all of you are fooled by your crazy theories of my williness.

[Mister Underhill]

Day One

1. Anguirel - B88
2. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. (W) Cailin - Eomer (Hunter)
5. Eomer - B88
6. B88 - Form (W)
7. (W) Form - Mr. U
8. Shelob - Anguirel (innocent)
9. mormegil - Cailin (W)
10. Firefoot - Cailin (W)
11. lmp - Cailin (W)
12. Enca - Anguirel (innocent)
13. Mr. U - Anguirel (innocent)
14. Fea - B88
15. Lhuna - Anguirel (innocent)


Day Two

1. Lhuna - Mr. U
2. Shelob - Lhuna (innocent)
3. tgwbs - Shelob (innocent)
4. B88 - Form (W)
5. Esty - Shelob (innocent)
6. Fea - lmp (Ranger)
7. morm - Fea
8. (W) Form - Mr. U
9. Firefoot - Shelob (innocent)
10. Mr. U - Fea
11. lmp - Fea
12. Enca - Shelob (innocent)


Day Three

1. tgwbs - Lhuna (innocent)
2. B88 - Form (W)
3. (W) Form - Fea
4. Enca - B88
5. Firefoot - Form (W)
6. Esty - Enca
7. Fea - Mr. U
8. Mr. U - Form (W)
9. morm - Enca

Here's the voting order and known roles where appropriate. It goes without saying that I know I'm innocent here, but I've only listed roles that are undisputably known by the death of the villager.

Formendacil, a known wolf, voted for me twice and only backed off when it seemed some momentum was building against me. The way I read this is that he helped lead the building of suspicion of me over the first two days, then didn't want to be linked to lynching an innocent if I went down on the third day. Is his vote for Fea significant? People were backing off of Fea all around, so this was a pretty safe vote. He could have cast it towards a fellow wolf to provide cover for them both. Or alternatively, it might have been a safe vote for an innocent who has been dogged by suspicion. Fea, as ever, is shrouded in controversy and confusion. I'll get back to her presently.

tgwbs has had the misfortune of having voted for a known innocent three days running. That should bring him up on anyone's radar. Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here. It's decent strategy for a wolf to vote early to avoid being involved in controversial voting decisions. Not sure what to make of this, but I haven't been looking too closely at tg and now I'm thinking that I should. Even if he's innocent, he's been consistently wrong, which means we ought to consider clearing his top suspect, Boromir.

Esty's had a shaky time of it, too, but overall I haven't seen much to suspect in her. I have to reciprocate her comments on me -- I have a feeling she'd be more involved if she were a wolf. She's been off most people's radar for most of the game, which makes me a little uneasy, but I've seen in her posts echoes of my own confusion as a n00b villager, so she remains low on my list.

morm: Pretty sure he's innocent. Like Boromir, I had him pegged on Day Two as the Seer.

...which leads me to buy into Boromir's story. If he was posing as the Seer to screen morm, it worked; by the end of Day Three, I had changed my mind and thought he was the Seer. Could this all be a bluff? Maybe. But for now his story rings true to me.

Fea's back at the top of my watch-list again. I backed off of her early on Day Three in part because I thought morm was the Seer, and he had backed off of her (#211). She's the only villager who has voted for a gifted (that we know of), and her other votes have been relatively safe bandwagon votes. Also notably cast an important vote on Day One and has seemingly been laying low voting-wise since then. She's accusing me still when the evidence is finally starting to vindicate me. She's also reaching hard to convince us that Firefoot dreamed of her, when Firefoot's comments hardly seem conclusive:

Post #252 -- Of a list of three, including Fea, who had received votes: 'I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.' See also post #256, especially a mention of Fea in her Lhuna comments: 'I know [Lhuna] lives in a different time zone, and I might feel a little bad in voting for her, but she makes me nervous too - not in a Fea-nervous way, but in an "I'm slipping under the radar now" nervous way.' On their own, both comments are pretty innocuous, but why would she cast even offhand suspicion on someone she knew to be innocent? Fea, you may be innocent, but my read on Firefoot's comments is that she did not dream of you.

Enca is also still a top suspect. She has voted for two known innocents and the one villager who pegged a wolf on all three of his votes. Cast the controversial vote on Day One that has made her a suspect ever since.

Right now, Fea and Enca top my watch-list.

I'd like to get a closer look at tgwbs.

**Not quite an edit, but while I've been composing this, the posts have been flying. Boromir has a point about the double-lynching, but on the other hand, if we kill an innocent we narrow down the chances of the wolf getting the cursed villager tonight. Would we know if the cursed villager had already been lynched, or can we assume he or she is still among us? Maybe a more experienced villager can help me out here.

My top suspects remain Enca and Fea. Boromir is a maybe, but right now, as I said above, his story rings true. I'd need more convincing to go for him and leave one of the other two alive if we want to try to orchestrate the double-L -- which I'm also not completely convinced is the best plan.

[the guy who be short]

In his first few posts Formy argues against morm and his strategies. I count this as further proof of morm's innocence.

He then goes on to say he has no reason to suspect anybody, but for lack of any evidence, will suspect Ang, LMP and morm. Again, morm is lumped with two innocents.

On the first Day he votes for Mr U. I'm willing to interpret this as meaning Mr U isn't a wolf.

It is difficult to analyse Formen's first long post. It more or less says "I think everybody is innocent."

Fea and Mister Underhill top the list, with Lhuna and Encai sitting somewhat lower. After that, I think it either TGWBS or Boromir, but those two register very low on the suspicion scale...

It's hard to know what to make of this. I am quite sold on the Borowolf theory now, and that looks like Formen is trying to mention Boro without being suspicious enough to lynch him.

Unlike some others, my suspicion regarding Mr. Underhill is not waning by his greater, and wiser, notices of today, rather, they are increased by them. He is definitely clever enough to be playing a double game, and that's the sort of thing a Werewolf would do.

I'm becoming more and more certain of Mr U's innocence.

Fea and Mister Underhill as the most likely suspects

Fea... innocent?

The really difficult thing about analysing anything Form says is his ambiguity. He claims somebody looks suspicious for one reason, but then innocent for another.

Wolves?:
Fea

Probably Wolves?:
Mister Underhill,
Encaitare

Relatively Neutral?
Lhunardawen,
Boromir,
Estelyn,
TGWBS,

Mostly Innocent:
Firefoot,
Mormegil

Maybe I'm just looking for it, but I keep seeing all this as pointing to Boro's wolvery. It's possible that Enca could be the other wolf, but I doubt it is Fea or Mr U.

He votes for Fea, making her seem innocent again.


That was incredibly ambiguous. Now, as I see it, either Fea is a cunning wolf, Boro is a cunning wolf, or Enca is a wolf. Mr U I doubt.

[the guy who be short]

I agree with Feanor's plan.

[Boromir88]

No no no, Fea's plan can be a total disaster. I'm certainly not a wolf. Encai may be but she may not be. If she isn't entering tomorrow you're up 3-1, don't catch a wolf then it's over. We have to realize if neither of us our wolves you have one more day to find who the wolf is. If you don't do it YOU LOSE! Lynch me today and you get an extra day to see who the lone wolf is.

If you lynch me today, tomorrow you'll be up 4-1 and have another day to find who the wolves are. So again, I sacrifice myself, because no one seems to think I'm innocent and the only way to get through you knuckle-heads will be my death. So lynch me, and you have an extra day to find out who the real wolf is.