TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

DAY ONE:
Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

DAY TWO:
Mr. Underhill – 2 (Lhuna 1, Formendacil 8)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 4 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5, Firefoot 9, Encai 12)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 3 (Morm 7, Mr. Underhill 10, LMP 11)

DAY THREE:
Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 3 – (Boromir 2, Firefoot 5, Mister Underhill 8)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)
Boromir - 1 (Encaitare 4)
Encaitare - 1 (Esty 6, mormegil 9)
Mister Underhill - 1 (Feanor 7)

So, to go by votes:

Formendacil votes Mr U two days in a row.

On the last day, Mr U votes Form, but Form does not vote Mr U. Why? I wouldn't put it past them to be a wolvish duo seeking to sow confusion. (Wow, I agree with Fea...)

Yesterday, Form voted for Fea. Fea voted Mr U.


Let me stop there. My brain is exploding. Formen-Underhill? Formen-Fea organising a conspiracy aganst Mr U? Formen-Boro planning Boro's apparent innocence? These are the three things most apparent to me, and I can't decide on one.

Why do people suspect Enca again? Esty and her look cleanest to me.

[mormegil]

I've got a good idea that could be worth trying. With this list of remaining villagers (copied from Phantom's list)

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

We should each do an individual analysis of the person below you. That would mean that I do one for TGWBS and he does Encai and so on until Mister Underhill does one for me. Since we only have one wolf there is no chance of a wolf analyzing the other wolf. This would spread out the work so nobody is doing too much. With our analysis be sure to include Firefoot's ideas.

Is everybody for it?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm for it, though our Seer also analyzed and came up clear for Esty. Would you like me still to analyze her? I'll do it, but it won't be until later, as I have to leave now.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Sounds like a good idea, morm - we have enough work cut out for us already! I'll go back and analyze Underhill's posts bit by bit, though I have already stated my conviction that he is very likely innocent.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by morm

Is everybody for it?

No. Enca wont be back until after I've made my vote and gone to sleep, and I suspect Esty too will be desirous of sleep tonight.

Offsetting this is his habit of voting early. Hard to say what's up here.

Esty and I happen to live in Europe... It's either that, or waking up at 6:00am for me.

I completely understand the suspicion against me. However, just because I've been consistently wrong, doesn't mean I'll stay that way.

Now here's the deal. I'm willing to be double lynched, but toDay is our last Day with mormian input. After that, there are no known innocents.

So, I'm willing to be lynched, on these conditions:

Esty and mormegil are recognised as innocents.

Encaitare is lynched with me.

If Enca is not a wolf, Fea and Boro are lynched next Day, with Esty as the final voter, if she can manage this.

Mr U or Esty - if you're wolves, I hate you. :P

[Estelyn Telcontar]

You won't have to hate me, tgwbs. Since the voting is so very crucial toDay, I will be sleeping early and getting up early to vote late. I announce this now so that all are aware of it - this is not a spontaneous decision. However, I'm still around for a couple of hours and I intend to do that analysis and to post as often as necessary. I will announce my impending absence later.

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double but I'm really scrambling here, busy "delivering messages" and trying to go home yet finish some analysis. I'm more convinced than ever of TGWBS's guilt. Look at what Formendacil says about him in 227 and 165 not convinced of innocence but yet not guilty. Then look at 215 of TGWBS he's on the "slightly innocent" list of TGWBS and he's the only one. I see these two in cahoots. Let's get one person to vote for him. And then we can still decide who is the second because I really don't want to see Boromir go now.

[mormegil]

mormegil
the guy who be short
Encaitare
Boromir88
Feanor of the Peredhil
Estelyn Telcontar
Mister Underhill

Here is our trusty list, now both TGWBS and Boromir have voted for themselves but nobody else has voted. I propose the next person should be Encai and she should vote for TGWBS bringing him to 2 votes and 4 remaining. Feanor vote for Encai so 3 remaining and Esty vote Feanor that would leave Mister Underhill and me to mop up. Also it will buy us time to decide who we want to vote for. Probably Mister Underhill should be second last and vote for Esty, if all of this happens everybody but Mister U and I should have votes and the wolf will need to comply to not be seen and we can still have a variable vote by me at the end. I think it sounds solid enough.

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by el señor debajo de la colina

Enca I suspect based on the voting record. Of all the days to be AWOL! Is it wolfish laying-low or the fickle hand of RL -- or both?

My absence was not a wolvish ploy. I had driver's ed, then stopped in for a quick post, then tutored until 7, and my dad was on the computer until now.

I know it's a little late, and some people have already voted, but I will do the analysis of Boromir as asked. It'll be up soon.

[Mister Underhill]

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

I'm okay with this. The more I reflect on tgwbs's posts and his behavior following the analysis, culminating in his self-vote, he's looking more and more guilty. Shorty, if you're innocent, I wish you would have kept your cool and stayed in the debate a while longer.

My gut has said that B88 is not a wolf. And in addition to your last minute epiphanies and analysis, I think if we're leaning towards tg as guilty, that tends to make Boro seem even more innocent, since they've been at each others' throats. Still, we'll see what Enca's promised analysis shows, if anything.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mister Underhill

So just to make sure I understand -- we're talking Shorty first and for sure, with a vote held in the pocket to decide the second lynching, which is still up for grabs.

Correct I keep the vote for the end. We may actually find some wolfish behavior before the end. We are now just waiting for Encai to begin the voting.

[Encaitare]

DAY 1

#48: Generally rude and jokes around, randomly accusing Lhuna, Esty, and the nonexistent SaucepanMan.

#69: Continues to be belligerent. Says that despite Anguirel's vote for him, he does not suspect him back. Says that we all deserve to die if we lynch him -- the first of many such statements. Suspects Lhuna, Esty, and TGWBS.

#70: Replies to Esty, continuing to bash her sewing. Says she is being hypocritical by voting at random and then attacking him for doing the same.

#105: Says it is stupid for a wolf to stay quiet, or for the accused not to defend themselves. Therefore he does not want to lynch a quiet person. Says LMP, Formendacil, and Feanor are wolves; no longer suspects Esty.

#110: Says his accusations are beneficial because they provoke reactions. Gives his thoughts on people; in essence, thinks Eomer is innocent, thinks Cailin's vote for him was foolish but not lupine, thinks Ang is noble and foolish but not a wolf, wants to hear more from Lhuna and Shelob, thinks Esty is confused but innocent, vaguely suspects Firefoot and Mr. U and wants to hear more from them, thinks TGWBS is cleared for the day because of his early vote, thinks LMP wants to lynch him, thinks Fea and LMP are in league, votes for Formendacil. Thinks the following are innocent: Anguirel, Cailin, Eomer, Estelyn, tgwbs.

If Boromir were a wolf, it's a pretty safe move to put one fellow wolf on an innocence list whilst accusing the other. Perhaps it's not logical to vote for a wolf on the first day, but they could have been going for that kind of relationship in which they would play off one another in such a way that if one died, the other could fall back on the defense that he helped lynch a wolf. And if it turns out TGWBS is a wolf and Boromir is innocent, then he is just highly intuitive!

#111: cross posted with Firefoot and replaces his suspicion of her with suspicion for Enca for being too quiet.

#115: Says again that his accusations get reactions which might make the wolves slip up.

DAY 2

#154: Says that out of Firefoot, Morm, and LMP, one might be a wolf, although they are probably innocent. He says...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm also suspicious of anyone trying to write off who's innocent and who's not, because we can't tell, and it's stupid to assume anyone's innocent, you're only fooling yourself.

A far cry from declaring himself a known innocent! Goes on to say that Enca and Mr. U look the most suspicious, and Fea is either a wolf or likely to die "because it just seems like that happens to people who vote for me...I wonder why, maybe because I'm innocent and if you vote for me you deserve to die!"

#155: Responds in agreement to Fea's statement not to underestimate how bold the wolves may be. Refers to her as "Miss Wolf".

#171: Suspects Formendacil (still holding to his Day 1 vote), Fea (outright says she's a wolf again), and Firefoot (because she is getting off easily with no one suspecting her, and writes off people as innocent). Then states that he is automatically innocent because he has never voted wrong yet. Thinks Lhuna is playing too dumb to be a wolf.

#175:

Originally Posted by B88

But, to say the way they voted the day prior makes them automatically innocent, is something that I say is wrong.

All this self-contradiction is the sort of thing that makes me uneasy.

#176: Thinks that those who vote for Lhuna and Shelob are suspicious.

#177: Votes for Formen again.


DAY 3

#207: Reiterates the fact that he has "never been wrong" because he said that Anguirel, Eomer, and Shelob were all innocent.

#226: Thinks Lhuna may be a wolf. Thinks the wolves are trying to set up Fea. Says that those who push for Fea's lynching are suspicious. Thinks the other wolf may be Mormegil.

#229: Replies to Formen's thought that Boromir is not wolvish but just misguided in his voting for Formen. Boro says he's on the right trail, and voted for Formen because he was not sure about any other candidates.

#234: Clears up the Saucepan Man thing, says he assumed Sauce was in the game. (I confess that I thought he was too at first.) Says he suspects Formen and Enca the most. Makes this foolish (and I believe, telling) statement:

Originally Posted by B88

Enca, it's pretty clear I'm innocent, and if you vote for me you'll end up dying, that's just the way it is. It's a sign that you don't vote for a known innocent.

#248: Says Fea is either pulling a bold bluff or being set up by the wolves. States:

Originally Posted by B88

I also suspect that with high suspicions of me early the Seer has already dreamed of me, which makes me innocent, so of course you don't want to get rid of me.

Votes for Formendacil.

#257: Claims we'll all pay if he dies. Suggests hanging Formendacil one day and Enca the next if he ends up getting hanged himself. Thinks Enca is trying to save Formen. Says he is not trying to drag out the Seer as Fea suggested.

#259: Essentially calls us all stupid.


DAY 4

#285: Explains how he came to suspect Formendacil. Suspects Enca and Esty, in that order. Tells us yet again how innocent he is, stating that a wolf would not vote so steadily for a fellow wolf as he did for Formen. This doesn't quite make it for me because I recall how in a past village the last werewolf kept saying how he helped lynch both the known wolves. It was a clever ploy and he was not killed! Could B88 be doing this here?

#288: Says he was trying to disguise himself as the Seer, which I thought he had been doing. Says it's safe to say that Firefoot dreamed of him.

#289: Implies that Estelyn is a wolf wanting to get rid of him for being a threat to the wolves.

#293: Says theories about wolves backstabbing one another are "crazy and ludicrous"... I think that it would be a good idea. Then one could hide behind the defense of having killed a wolf. Says he didn't suspect Lhuna and Shelob... except he did suspect Lhuna (post #226). Says again that Fea is being set up. Is no longer as suspicious of Esty.

#295: Says the comment about how if Enca votes for him she will die was a joke because "people who vote for me end up dying because they're voting for a known innocent and that's something you shouldn't do." Doesn't want a double-lynching of Enca and himself.

#298: Wants to sacrifice himself to allow an extra day to catch the wolf.

#301: Presents further reasoning for his sacrifice in case the double lynching fails, i.e. Enca is not a wolf. Emphasizes the importance of safety in numbers.

#309: Suspects TGWBS.

#311: Nothing important, says he will analyze Fea as asked. Says she's being set up again.

#320: Says TGWBS is being noble in sacrificing himself, but it might be a bluff. Still opposes the double-lynching.

#322: Presents possible outcomes (aka "all that could go wrong") of a double-lynching. Recognizes the possibility that the Cursed Villager is still alive.

#343: Suddenly is willing to go ahead with the double-lynching because everyone else wants it. Is he a wolf deciding that to continue opposing it would be too suspicious? Says to lynch himself and possibly TGWBS.

#344: Votes for himself.

There.

On the whole, Boromir's constant repitition of the same statements (such as: I'm so innocent! ... Fea's being set up! ... You'll die if you vote for me!) suggests to me that he's not quite as helpful as he appears to be with his large number of posts. And the threats and such don't help either. I suggest that he has been hiding behind this pugnacious mask since Day 1 (as we all noted by his attitude, insulting man from Dor-Lomin that he is), and made a deal with Formendacil that he (Boromir) would vote for him (Formen) to make himself look innocent.

Also, Boromir flip-flops here and there. First, he says that no one can be innocent for sure; then he constantly states that he is a "known innocent". He agrees with Fea that the wolves will be bold, and then dismisses the idea of bluffing, backstabbing wolves as "crazy". He opposes the double-lynching, and then when no one agrees, changes his mind.

Originally Posted by morm

Let's remember one of the most solid pieces of evidence we had on Formendacil--his "insulted" reaction to Boromir's vote that is not something that a wolf duo would do. It was a definate slip on Formendacil's part not orchestrated.

It could have been just that -- a slip. Or, perhaps it was part of their plan to make Formen look super-guilty and Boro super-innocent.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

So in sum and in order of who should vote (if possible)

Encai vote TGWBS
Feanor vote Encai
Esty vote Feanor
Mister U vote Esty
Mormegil vote...will be determined

So we set it up that TGWBS definately dies and leave you to decide who the other one is?

Much as I trust you morm, I'm not certain that I'm comfortable with giving you supreme power on this one. I just... can't... stop... my crazy question-everything side. I'm really bad at dropping issues, as I'm sure you'll have noticed. I would prefer a vote thus:

We know the two who will die (TGWBS and ______ ?) and we set up the vote, say

Encai = ______
Fea = TGWBS (I want to make sure I vote for someone I actually think wolfy)
Underhill = ______

With Mormegil and Esty, if possible, coming in to make certain it stays tied. Is that plausible?

Because I'd prefer to know who's going to die in advance, instead of (once again, as much as I trust you morm), leaving it up to you, on the odd chance that my over-worked brain is wrong about your innocence. I can't for the life of me remember if you were ever officially cleared, or if it was just accepted that we should trust you.

And I know I cross-posted a lot... I've been distracted from this post by so many things...