TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[the guy who be short]

The thing with the Fea situation is that it's impossible to know whether wolves set Fea up, whether Fea was being blindingly obvious killing LMP knowing we wouldn't suspect her, or whether wolves set her up knowing we'd think she were bluffing, or whether Fea knew we would think it were a double bluff and actually killed LMP... etc. etc. I can't see it a being anything less complex than a double bluff.

So Fea basically remains Mystery Girl.

I'm more concerned about Formy and Boromir, the two people I haven't labelled yet. I shall look over their posts and should come to a decision.

Currently, I'm undecided between voting Mystery Girl and Lhuna/Mr U.

Anaylses of innocent posts may be delayed or non-existant as they have moved down in my list of priorities. I want to figure out Form and Boro.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hello doves, I'm back. Expect a lengthy post from me in a while, as I've finally got some time to sit and analyze.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

*hums "I'm making a list, checking it twice..."

While I'm trying to gather evidence, I'd like to add what thoughts have occurred to me so far. Now, I don't know whether phantom's post indicates that the ranger was killed by primary wolf choice or while defending another villager. It would be interesting to know who it was, if the latter is true. Should it have been either the seer or the cursed villager, LMP will have saved us from a worse fate. So far, I'm not seeing evidence of the seer's identity, but we do need to lynch a wolf very soon, or the chances of them adding another are great.

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones. Boro88 voted for Formy both days, and Formy voted for Underhill both days. I'm not sure what that is telling us - does one of them have more knowledge than the rest of us?


[Arnold Schwarzenegger voice:] "I'll be back!" [/voice]

[the guy who be short]

Righto. I have emerged from my underground caverns once more.

I've just gone through everything Formen and Boromir have said. I noticed:

1) Formen suspects roughly the same people as me. Seems innocent.

2) Boro suspected Sauce to start off with. This points to his innocence. However, he also claims wolves would be idiots to stay quiet - whilst being loud himself. Interesting, Eomer voted for Boro before being taken in the night. At the moment, I consider him neutral though.

Potential Wolf Pairs:
Mr U - Lhuna
Feanor - Encaitare

Neutral:
Boromir

Slightly Innocent:
Formendacil

Most likely Innocent:
Esty

Innocents:
Firefoot
mormegil
TGWBS

Possibly coming soon: Analyses of Eomer's posts on Day 1. I want to know why he died - this was never looked into on Day 2, strangely.

[mormegil]

Esty the way it works is if the Ranger protects somebody that the wolves attack then nobody dies. Therefore the wolves went for LMP. But who else jumped on your parallel voting with TGWBS other than I? TGWBS pointed it out too but nobody else? Are you nervous and trying to hide something?

Originally Posted by Esty

Everyone has jumped on the fact that TGWBS and I voted for the same person both days, but we were not the only ones.

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm finding depressingly apparent things that I should have noticed before... don't worry, my big post is yet to come. But it should shed light on some things we would have done better to pick up on before. Like Eomer. And wolves' plans.

If you are saying what I think you are going to say I may even lower you further on my suspect list.

[the guy who be short]

Yes but the major difference between you and Boromir is he voted alone while you and shorty seem to follow each other.

The lady is half dwarf, meaning she too must go to sleep several hours before the rest of you, or else turn to stone. The fact that we vote at similar hours is not, then, much of an issue.

As for voting for the same people, we have only done it twice, and if you read our posts, have different thought processes that lead us to the same conclusions.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Actually, I almost didn't vote for Shelob for the very reason that TGWBS had her at the top of his list. But I decided to vote for the person who topped my own suspect list, regardless of what others do or don't. I will do the same thing today. I'm still looking through past posts, analyzing for myself, though I am also comparing with what others post today, of course.

[the guy who be short]

I missed this in my skimming before, but Eomer openly declared himself as Hunter:

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

So why did he choose to kill Cailin instead of Boromir? Cailin had already voted for him when Eomer voted, so it wasn't her vote. There must have been some reason he trusted Boromir.
That said, Boromir kept carefully neutral about the vote - claiming he believe Eomer innocent despite his vote. Would a wolf have snapped at the bait? In any case, this makes Boromir seem more innocent to me.

Originally Posted by CAILIN!

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Casts suspicion on Firefoot. She's innocent.
Casts suspicion on Esty. Innocent.

Here's the interesting part. She says she doesn't want to vote for Shelob or Lhuna because they've had no chance to defend themselves... does this mean she was disguising the fact that Lhuna is a wolf by tarring her with the same brush as Shelob? Hmm.

[Firefoot]

Let's have a look at what he was thinking:

He started out on Day 2 here:
Wolfy - Lhuna and Mr. U.
Neutral to guilty - Fea and Encai

He started leaning towards Mr. U.'s innocence as the Day went on.

His last words:

I find Firefoot's reasoning rather persuasive, such that those she suspects have now been raised from NOT really concerned about yet, to "Questioning".

I Questioning: Mr. U. (dropped from suspect for now), Esty, Formy, & Shelob.

I Suspect: Enca & Lhuna, because of their votes for Anguirel. Yes, Enca says she's convinced of my innocence, which is something a werewolf might say; nevertheless, I'm not ready to vote for her. I'm also not yet ready to vote for Lhuna, whose vote for Anguirel could be read either way.

I Accuse: Feanor. Whereas she says the same things I say about not trusting anyone, she keeps on pointing her radar at me. If she's a werewolf, she knows I'm innocent, and I don't put it past her to continue to accuse someone most others seem to have accepted on the strength of my vote for Cailin, which would seem foolish for a werewolf to do, but Feanor is so capable of the double and triple bluff, that she's going to have to supply more proof (like being lynched and turning out to be innocent, for example) before I'm convinced she's not a wolf. There's just too much doubt and centripital force surrounding this individual to leave her in the game to cause further confusion.

++ Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Mr. Underhill, and glad to see we voted alike.

It seems likely to me that one (maybe both) of the wolves would be on LMP's suspect or questioning list. That would be Esty, Formendacil, Mr. U., Encai, or Lhuna. If there were a wolf that wasn't on his list, I would be most inclined to suspect TGWBS, who I am extremely unsure about. He seems innocent, but I can't help but suspect him. I am currently inclined towards believing that killing LMP was a set up of Fea.

I would really like to hear more from Lhuna, which unfortunately probably won't happen before I go to sleep tonight. There just isn't enough to go off for her. I'd also like to hear more from Encai, as she is seeming more suspicious to me yet there's not a lot to back it up one way or the other.

[Encaitare]

The first thing I would like to address is the fact that people are taking note of the fact that I did break the tie between Fea and Shelob. However, don't look at the votes alone. In post 190, I as good as said that I would be voting for her:

Originally Posted by me

As I did yesterDay, I shall return in a bit to cast my vote. Right now I am leaning towards Shelob, although if anyone else has some really good arguments I'd be glad to hear them.

When I said this, the voting situation was like this:

Mr. Underhill – 1 (Lhuna 1)
Lhuna – 1 (Shelob 2)
Shelob – 2 (TGWBS 3, Esty 5)
Formendacil – 1 (Boromir 4)
LMP – 1 (Fea 6)
Fea – 1 (Morm 7)

Think about it. If I had actually cast the vote at that time, would it be as big a deal? It has been suggested that Fea and I are the two remaining wolves. When I cast my vote, there was a tie between Shelob and Fea, and Mr. Underhill had two. If Fea and I were wolves together, I could have voted for Mr. U, thereby lynching both him and Shelob, and skipping over Fea.

I am now going to go through what has been said thus far and then post further thoughts.

[Estelyn Telcontar]

Right now I'm going back to my theory that one of the votes for Anguirel on the first day was cast by a wolf. I was wrong with my first suspect, Shelob. I am now looking very closely at Encai; she voted for both lynched innocents on both days. On the second day, she broke a tie, thereby saving Fea's neck. On the first day, her vote came when Cailín was leading, creating a bandwagon effect for Anguirel, and away from the one wolf we know of so far. This would make me suspect Fea as her ally, though I'm not sure of my reasoning yet.

(cross-posted with Firefoot and Encai...)