TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 10-18-2005, 09:18 AM

It's ok, Ang. If you weren't going to vote for me anyway then it's useless trying to point you in that sweet and truthful direction.

Mormegil is a trusty servant and a far more worthy fellow than I (though I offer Thingol no regrets) and I think he is wise enough to see what has been laid out.

Look: we have a Seer in this village, or so I am told. It is imperative that he/she stays alive for as long as is necessary for our cause. It would be downright awful to lose him/her on the first day. Try not to make the lynchings too random, even here on this first Day.

A pity things are turning out as they are, what with the Wolves invading an' all. It appears that that outrageous character littlemanpoet would have batted my notoriety right into thae shadows! Ah, for peace and quiet!

Anguirel · 10-18-2005, 09:47 AM

The noble line of the Knights of Anguirelli number some Seers among their ancestors; and I can impart this much family lore. No post-mortem "trail" is worth a succession of dreams made safely. O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

Formendacil · 10-18-2005, 10:19 AM

Alas! 'Tis bad enough to come in from a lonely night at work (and worse having to work at what I work), but coming in to find that the village is in a bigger pile of turds and stools than my job consists of is no fun...

I won't bother the village with my suspicions simply because I don't have any. As yet, we have no way of knowing who the vile Werewolves are, short of leaving the village and handing ourselves up to Sauron...

None of us is so foolish as to want to do that, methinks. Although Sauron would be rather pleased, I suppose...

But still, I am not certain that we shouldn't lynch somebody. True, it is an awfully hard fate for anyone here in the village, and I'm no more eager to volunteer myself than the next villager. But it isn't unheard of to catch a Werewolf on the first day, now is it?

That said, I'm not going to push for a lynching. I've got a bad track record of lynching all the wrong people- why do you think I shovel man-turds for a living? And I'll say this regarding my last village- I was lucky to get out in time- and according to some storytellers, I didn't. Werewolves are exceedingly cunning creatures, and are very good at sowing fear and dissention...

My question regarding Master Mormegil's strategy is this: If there are fifteen villagers, and fifteen votes cast for fifteen victims, then is the one who was voted for first just lynched off- on the strength of ONE vote, one-FIFTEENTH of the population?

It's not a likely scenario, I'll grant, but if you're counselling us to vote as randomly as possible, it is quite possible that we'll end up with someone being executed with hardly any suspicion, and most likely innocent. I agree that's a dangerous thing to all bandwaggon together against somebody, and that the chances of catching someone are no greater, but at least with a bandwaggoning you have the weight of a truer village majority behind you...

I don't suppose it's possible for ALL of the village to not vote. Would the phantom of our departed leader hound us to the grave for that? If EVERYONE in the village participated, would it perhaps be manageable...

mormegil · 10-18-2005, 10:24 AM

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

Anguirel · 10-18-2005, 10:30 AM

The plan is original, but I don't think our wolves would be rash enough to fall into its trap. However, since it has not been essayed before, and seems at the least right unlikely to backfire, I am prepared to make a trial of it. I shall allow the Valar to assist and advise my vote, rather than mere reason, relatively soon.

Formendacil · 10-18-2005, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil

The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well.

Probably, I suppose...

But let me ask another question:

Supposing all the villagers pick on the wrong people (not an impossibility, by any means), leaving the Wolves free to vote for each other and/or regular villagers, saving themselves and killing off others?

Your plan is a well-thought one, but I'm thinking that it cannot really succeed, without eventually disintegrating into a regular bandwaggoning. All it takes is two random-voters with the same suspicions voting the same way, and posting their thoughts, and you've got the makings of a bandwaggon.

Estelyn Telcontar · 10-18-2005, 10:39 AM

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

Anguirel · 10-18-2005, 11:26 AM

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

mormegil · 10-18-2005, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme.

Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do...

++BOROMIR88

Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf.

I find this rather interesting that he says he will go along with the random plan and yet he seems to not be quite as random. I could be misreading this but it seems that I am correct.

It seems a bit odd and I wanted to point it out.

the guy who be short · 10-18-2005, 11:29 AM

Alas! Death is upon us!

Death! Death! *tugs furiously upon beard*

Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf. Whoever heard of such a ridiculous creature?

So who is a werewolf?

Well, it seems quite obvious to me... Yes, that's right. Sauron.

Other than him? Not quite sure yet.

Anguirel · 10-18-2005, 11:40 AM

Aye! I have our triumvirate! the guy who be short has shown the way...

Sauron, Draugluin and Carcharoth. There, I've saved the village. I must be the Seer!

I sense the presence of many other villagers...why then this silence? Am I to be left alone to test mormegil's plan? Let's get the debate continuing...

littlemanpoet · 10-18-2005, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile...

Forsooth! What do you think I was getting at? I am not such a one as to take advantage of an innocent, if that is what you are. I take advantage of no-one, and my heartfelt sympathy is certainly for all and anyone, no strings attached (although I don't mind you patronising my tavern). Far be it from me to indiscrimately boondoggle women to my bed! I am most discriminating in that pursuit!

littlemanpoet · 10-18-2005, 02:21 PM

I didn't really like the plan anyway, morm, no offense. Like most of these Day One plans, they tend to distract attention from trying to rout out the werewolves, they don't get enough support, and therefore they fail. Let's wait a few days by which time plans can be more helpful.

Fea, bad girl. I may have to dock your wages for that. The nerve of trying to impersonate someone from the far distant future. How anachronistic! Forsooth! And your plan sucks too. I think I ought to take you into my bedchamber and give you a proper spanking. Now, wouldn't that be fun?

littlemanpoet · 10-18-2005, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety...

Then let all innocents be as loudmouthy as can be so that the merest hintings by the farsighted one, should they occur sooner than later, go unnoticed by the evil spirited ones, so distracted they will be by the noise of the rest of us.

Quote:

Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy...

Bad idea. If we have an innocent volunteer, assuming that you are, although it could be a brash werewolvish bluff, then there is no voting trail to follow to roust out the werewolves.

Firefoot · 10-18-2005, 02:43 PM

I am against picking a random villager and lynching them - there'd be nothing left to analyze. Everyone should just pick who they think is a wolf. It's unlikely that we will actually catch a wolf, but we're not likely to do so anyway, and an individualized voting can leave a pattern for analysis, and the wolves won't be able to hide as well in one giant mob bandwagon.

Anguire's been very vocal; so far he seems to be acting in the best interest of the village. His vote of Boromir was a little random, but we don't really have that much to go off of anyway. Other than that he seems to be following a fairly logical train of thought. I've also been following lmp and Morm pretty well; they seem innocent at this point.

I think that Formendacil's theory of everyone abstaining from voting (if it were still viable, that is) would only hurt the villagers in the long run. Voting is probably the most concrete evidence we have - we can compare the order of voting, the consistency of what the person said vs. how they voted, and a fairly concrete statement - "I think this person is a wolf." Though it will probably take a couple days, voting does leave a pattern.

10-18-2005, 09:18 AM	#1
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	It's ok, Ang. If you weren't going to vote for me anyway then it's useless trying to point you in that sweet and truthful direction. Mormegil is a trusty servant and a far more worthy fellow than I (though I offer Thingol no regrets) and I think he is wise enough to see what has been laid out. Look: we have a Seer in this village, or so I am told. It is imperative that he/she stays alive for as long as is necessary for our cause. It would be downright awful to lose him/her on the first day. Try not to make the lynchings too random, even here on this first Day. A pity things are turning out as they are, what with the Wolves invading an' all. It appears that that outrageous character littlemanpoet would have batted my notoriety right into thae shadows! Ah, for peace and quiet! __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

10-18-2005, 09:47 AM	#2
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	The noble line of the Knights of Anguirelli number some Seers among their ancestors; and I can impart this much family lore. No post-mortem "trail" is worth a succession of dreams made safely. O farsighted one, wherever you be, do not expose yourself unduly-perhaps even at all-dropping hints too early. All too often a valiant Seer has paid the highest price far too soon for lacking subtlety... Incidentally, if we wish to avoid lynching one of our gallant band of heroes, then I am happy to volunteer myself for the noose; if the village truly wills it, though I would rather follow Master mormegil's strategy... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

10-18-2005, 10:19 AM	#3
Formendacil Dead Serious Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Perched on Thangorodrim's towers. Posts: 3,328	Alas! 'Tis bad enough to come in from a lonely night at work (and worse having to work at what I work), but coming in to find that the village is in a bigger pile of turds and stools than my job consists of is no fun... I won't bother the village with my suspicions simply because I don't have any. As yet, we have no way of knowing who the vile Werewolves are, short of leaving the village and handing ourselves up to Sauron... None of us is so foolish as to want to do that, methinks. Although Sauron would be rather pleased, I suppose... But still, I am not certain that we shouldn't lynch somebody. True, it is an awfully hard fate for anyone here in the village, and I'm no more eager to volunteer myself than the next villager. But it isn't unheard of to catch a Werewolf on the first day, now is it? That said, I'm not going to push for a lynching. I've got a bad track record of lynching all the wrong people- why do you think I shovel man-turds for a living? And I'll say this regarding my last village- I was lucky to get out in time- and according to some storytellers, I didn't. Werewolves are exceedingly cunning creatures, and are very good at sowing fear and dissention... My question regarding Master Mormegil's strategy is this: If there are fifteen villagers, and fifteen votes cast for fifteen victims, then is the one who was voted for first just lynched off- on the strength of ONE vote, one-FIFTEENTH of the population? It's not a likely scenario, I'll grant, but if you're counselling us to vote as randomly as possible, it is quite possible that we'll end up with someone being executed with hardly any suspicion, and most likely innocent. I agree that's a dangerous thing to all bandwaggon together against somebody, and that the chances of catching someone are no greater, but at least with a bandwaggoning you have the weight of a truer village majority behind you... I don't suppose it's possible for ALL of the village to not vote. Would the phantom of our departed leader hound us to the grave for that? If EVERYONE in the village participated, would it perhaps be manageable... __________________ I prefer history, true or feigned.

10-18-2005, 10:24 AM	#4
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	The way the plan would work is it might be discernable for us to see whose votes might not be so random, if you take my meaning. Wolves will inevitabely save themselves if need be and it may help further down the road and the beauty of it is that we eliminate wolfish influence from the true innocents vote and leave their influence to a more macro, and easier to detect, scale. Though as most plans for order are normally shot down I'm sure this plan for order based on not having order will be shot down as well. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-18-2005, 10:30 AM	#5
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	The plan is original, but I don't think our wolves would be rash enough to fall into its trap. However, since it has not been essayed before, and seems at the least right unlikely to backfire, I am prepared to make a trial of it. I shall allow the Valar to assist and advise my vote, rather than mere reason, relatively soon. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso

10-18-2005, 10:39 AM	#7
Estelyn Telcontar Princess of Skwerlz Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: where the Sea is eastwards (WtR: 6060 miles) Posts: 7,500	Well, LMP, it seems to me that your kind offer of comfort is a bit indiscriminate, to say the least! If you spread your favours so generously, how are we to assume you a good judge of character? Aside from that, I would not risk being alone with any inhabitant of our village for awhile... __________________ 'Mercy!' cried Gandalf. 'If the giving of information is to be the cure of your inquisitiveness, I shall spend all the rest of my days in answering you. What more do you want to know?' 'The whole history of Middle-earth...'

10-18-2005, 11:26 AM	#8
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	To the chase! As my grievous wound keeps me from the saddle, I tend to immerse myself in the study of lore and poetry in the darkling hours. As a result, I must say my piece quickly, acting in accordance with the messenger's untried scheme. Hence...to avenge the insult to the Lady Estelyn, and because of a residual distrust of the Dor-Lomin folk, lacking any sense of honour as they do... ++BOROMIR88 Can this man make his living by insulting his betters, including those among the gentler sex? He is either an idle layabout or a wolf. __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso Last edited by Anguirel; 10-18-2005 at 12:26 PM.

10-18-2005, 11:29 AM	#10
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Alas! Death is upon us! Death! Death! tugs furiously upon beard Now that the theatrics are comfortably over, I would like to assert that I am most definitely not a weredwarf. Whoever heard of such a ridiculous creature? So who is a werewolf? Well, it seems quite obvious to me... Yes, that's right. Sauron. Other than him? Not quite sure yet.

10-18-2005, 11:40 AM	#11
Anguirel Byronic Brand Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: The 1590s Posts: 2,778	Aye! I have our triumvirate! the guy who be short has shown the way... Sauron, Draugluin and Carcharoth. There, I've saved the village. I must be the Seer! I sense the presence of many other villagers...why then this silence? Am I to be left alone to test mormegil's plan? Let's get the debate continuing... __________________ Among the friendly dead, being bad at games did not seem to matter -Il Lupo Fenriso Last edited by Anguirel; 10-18-2005 at 12:20 PM.

10-18-2005, 02:21 PM	#13
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	I didn't really like the plan anyway, morm, no offense. Like most of these Day One plans, they tend to distract attention from trying to rout out the werewolves, they don't get enough support, and therefore they fail. Let's wait a few days by which time plans can be more helpful. Fea, bad girl. I may have to dock your wages for that. The nerve of trying to impersonate someone from the far distant future. How anachronistic! Forsooth! And your plan sucks too. I think I ought to take you into my bedchamber and give you a proper spanking. Now, wouldn't that be fun?

10-18-2005, 02:43 PM	#15
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	I am against picking a random villager and lynching them - there'd be nothing left to analyze. Everyone should just pick who they think is a wolf. It's unlikely that we will actually catch a wolf, but we're not likely to do so anyway, and an individualized voting can leave a pattern for analysis, and the wolves won't be able to hide as well in one giant mob bandwagon. Anguire's been very vocal; so far he seems to be acting in the best interest of the village. His vote of Boromir was a little random, but we don't really have that much to go off of anyway. Other than that he seems to be following a fairly logical train of thought. I've also been following lmp and Morm pretty well; they seem innocent at this point. I think that Formendacil's theory of everyone abstaining from voting (if it were still viable, that is) would only hurt the villagers in the long run. Voting is probably the most concrete evidence we have - we can compare the order of voting, the consistency of what the person said vs. how they voted, and a fairly concrete statement - "I think this person is a wolf." Though it will probably take a couple days, voting does leave a pattern.

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