TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[mormegil]

Alas, I have arrived too late for my message to do any good. I was sent by Lord Thingol to warn of Sauron's designs to overrun this region by the use of wolves. It seems that his goal is nearly accomplished and he has now set his eye upon us.

Since I am already here however, I will stay and risk my own life in helping to capture these foul lycans. Our objective can be accomplished by working in concert with each other and being open and examining everyone with precision and accuracy only then can we root these demons out from us.

Although I do have my preconceptions about the cur Eomer. I have lived in Doriath long enough to know his reputation there. I could turn him in for the bounty upon him, but for the sake of this village I will let him live and pray that he is at least innocent of being a werewolf.

[Cailín]

Phantom... dead...? I still refuse to believe it. I came here, hoping for safety, but it seems there is no escaping from Sauron and his horrible wolves. It is sad we did not get your message sooner, dear Morm, but as you say, we are here now and can only do our best and pray we will not face the same fate as so many villages before us.

We have one, clear advantage, though. We have all seen it happen before, and we know what it is like. We may not be as adept at picking out the wolves at a single glance, like Sir Phantom was, but we are no helpless newbies either. Therefore, let us do the obvious thing . Let’s all discuss this, question each other, debate, point out suspicious behavior and argue till the wolves are so weary they cannot even tell one loud villager from the next. They are bound to slip up in time. And if that doesn’t work, we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

[Anguirel]

Alas. Though I was once a famed pursuer and slayer of werewolves, I was sorely wounded in rescuing a village some time ago, and only narrowly saved from the werecurse by a passing healer; my sword will be of little use.

However, I shall put the benefit of twelve years in the saddle against Sauron's minions at your disposal.

Since there is no doubt that to dispatch this last village, Gorthaur will have sent the finest wolves in his arsenal, we are unlikely to catch one on this, the first day. The question is, should we give up hope and fall upon a volunteered innocent?

I think not-the problem being that such a lynching would leave no trail. Though we may in the rage of our loss, manipulated by wolves, rend apart one of our guardians, at least we will be able to cast cold, analytical eyes as to why we did so...who was directing us...

Wolves will rarely be bold enough to start bandwagons-though having said that, that statement may encourage them to. They will use subtle sophistry, malign influence, that appears to make the situation clearer but in fact obfuscates it. Beware of those who seem too confindent-"Well, if X is innocent, Y is certainly guilty."

We do have one Seer dream; but I would advise the Seer not to hint about it yet in any way, even if an innocent is about to be lynched. Worse things happen at sea, frankly; Seer, we need you to be undetected, to last, survive, and dream...

[Estelyn Telcontar]

I don't know whether to envy those of you who have had experience fighting those horrible werewolves or to be glad that I was able to live here in peace for so long! I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. I must try to collect my thoughts to be able to find a way for us to escape the worst, the complete obliteration of the village that is our home.

I have made garments for so many of you; they clothe you well, but now I cannot help but wonder what dark hearts are concealed by those warm, sturdy yet lovely materials. How am I to trust any of you? Words are like clothing - they often hide what is underneath them. I cannot judge by what anyone says, but must wait to see what your actions reveal.

Fortunately, I have time today. I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me. For now, I take comfort in speech with you, my fellow villagers.

[Cailín]

It's a comfort to hear that so far, everyone is prepared to stand up and fight this new threat, instead of going straight into hiding and helplessly await our doom.

Anguirel has some valuable points and I think I should add we should be careful of wolves trying to steer the lynching into a singular direction early on. Better to first get a general impression and then spread the voting, so we may avoid the wolves planning anything in advance. Being able to do that is their advantage over us and as long as we can undermine any strategizing, we should be fine.

And Esty, whether it is an asset we have fought wolves before, remains still to be seen. Our wolves also likely have past experience and can consequently more or less anticipate the reactions of the village. Besides, we still never managed to actually establish a wolvish behavior pattern.

Also, I’m sad to inform you all, later this day, a very important costumer from another village will be paying me a visit. Since this particular costumer is one of those skeptic people, I can predict without a doubt our wary attitude shall be undeservedly ridiculed, but I must admit I'm loath to lose such great patronage and will therefore be forced to keep my additions to our discussion brief today. I am sure, however, you will hardly miss my input and should the situation become extremely dire or confusing, I will naturally immediately rush to the cause, despite my customer's protests.

[Firefoot]

Sensible statements from all, sensible indeed. Yet fair words may hide a foul tongue, as it's said. Who can tell whether the words are heartfelt or utterly empty, masking the beast inside?

Now, a werewolf could be anybody, but there's some less than respectable characters lurking around this village. What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night? Or Shelob, finally looking to rise above your station by gaining that foul Sauron's favor? Or perhaps the opposite, Anguirel, trying to hide behind his noble facade?

These are dark days, dark days indeed - and as long as there are these wolves around, there will no doubt be suspicion and doubt. Yet we must work together. Our enemies delight in the division of their enemies.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

What have Fea and lmp been up to this past night?

What Fea and I have been up to in the privacy of my bedchamber is strictly between the two of us.

Oh. I see that my words seem to imply a quite specific activity. Ahem. Well. I can assure you that I was in my bedchamber last night, though of course I did go outside to the latrine once during the night, if you must know.

And what of you, Firefoot? What were you doing last night?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hovering hippos! Hi-jinx have hindered my hopes, as it were.

Now hold on just a moment, my lovelies, don't stare at me like that! It's true that I'm a newcomer to this here village and so you'll all be wary of me; only natural, I suppose. But my designs included little more than laying low in this fine country and seeking peace. Angry Elves I may have expected, but Werewolves? That puts an apple in the mustard, if you take my meaning.

Nevertheless, you may yet be glad of my arrival, O fair townsfolk! I have much experience of combat. I am at your service.

In addition to the wise comments delivered beforehand, I would also ask my new fellows to look out for those things that we have to look out for, for they are placed so as to be found by those who are looking, if you'll follow me.

One other pressing matter: Is there a saloon in this town?

[Boromir88]

Pah, phantom missed? What's this? The guy was nothing but a cocky lil airhead. Always wanting to be called, lord, or master, like he was someone of importance.

As far as my predictions, I just kind of want to take some stabs and see how close I am...

Sauce is a wolf because you just have to suspect someone like Sauce in the beginning, always, it's just the way it is.

Lhuna's a wolf, because she's not much of a healer, and I don't know why she calls herself one. I had went to her one time to find a cure for this dreaded wart that I had, all she did was cause me to spring more of them. Then I had to get my big toe amputated.

And Estelyn's a wolf, because her sewing is horrendous, only a werewolf with giant claws could do that bad of a job.

Anyway, how's everyone this morning?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Estelyn Telcontar

I am sad and bewildered, but it will not help me or us all if I am overcome by emotions. ... I finished the most necessary sewing and ironing tasks yesterday, so I have nothing pressing to do. Besides, I do not want to be alone in my home or shop after this foul deed, lest fear overcome me.

Then take comfort with me, fair clothier, and I can soothe your whelming feelings. My room is just upstairs and I've prepared it especially for your comfort and relief. And if you feel the need to discuss the horrors, I am quite willing to do that as well, just you and me.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Cailín

...we can always force feed some suspicious folk one of my excellent love potions and see if they rush into a passionate confession.

I'll take one now. As they say, 'eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow someone will have been found dead' at the claws of werewolves. Well, I know how to be merry, and I'd be quite willing, Cailín, to help you be merry too.

Don't doubt that I'll be quite serious in the discussion, but we can't have discussion all day and not relieve ourselves of the stress in one way or another.

I'll have to be away doing inventory of my casks, so I'll just trust to my handy Elven Loremaster Ears (ELE) to record the discussion while I'm gone.

[the guy who be short]

I appear to have come under a little fire for my former conclusions. I shall therefore re-assess everything I previously stated. Like most reassessments, the vast majority of people will finish worse off.

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

Hmm. Morm voted when two other people had two votes each, so it looked unlikely Cailin would die. He could still be a wolf, I guess, but looks neutral to me at the moment.
Firefoot and LMP are not wolves. Definite. There is simply no reason a wolf would willingly vote for one of their own on the first day when there was a serious chance of that wolf being voted off, no matter what Feanor claims.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

I stand by this. Though the evidence seems less strong now, it would still have made more sense for a wolf-Enca to vote Shelob or B88. Enca seems innocent.
I am now far less sure about Mr U's lycanthropy than I was before. He could potentially be a wolf; however, maybe I'm just sentimental, but his plea seemed genuine to me. I put him on my "wolfy" list. His tie could have been an attempt to save Cailin though.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Feanor still looks innocent to me. No reaon to cause a triple tie, including at least one fellow wolf, when she could have just voted Ang and be done with it.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.

Lhuna was forced to break a tie. This is never easy. I'm ust not sure.

After this, it will appear that I have contracted extreme schizophrenia. Such is life. Here is a list of votes for those who would like another look:

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

Wolfy:
Mr U
Lhuna

Neutral:
Morm

Innocent Looking:
Enca
Fea

Innocent:
LMP
Firefoot

Now, there are several people who have been left off my list. I have absolutely no confidence in my Wolfy list, though I'm certain of my conclusions concerning people's innocence. I will most likely vote for somebody who has not yet been mentioned, somebody flying under the radar, to use a cliché.

[Firefoot]

All right, I'll see what I can do.

Post 44

While she does not come out and say "I'm innocent," there are strong undertones of this. Strong emotions, phrases like "fellow villagers," etc. As far as words go, the gist of the meaning is "I'm not sure what I'm doing, I'll have to wait and see what happens before making any decisions." As Esty herself has confessed, she has a flair for the dramatic which makes this more difficult as dramatic tends to be something I look for in a wolf. Nothing conclusive here.

Post 51

She starts out defending herself to Boromir, who accused her on the grounds of "horrible sewing." Again, she states that she has no knowledge of what anyone else is and we don't have enough to judge people on, just words. This could be construed to look innocent or guilty, depending on how you look at it, and it comes down to the same Esty question - is she really not sure, an inexperienced wolf, or both?

Post 65

Some in-character response to LMP and a reiteration of the sentiment that she can't trust anyone. Same as 51 - could be made to look innocent or guilty.

Post 81

States that she will have to vote either early or late, and that it seems that her vote will be random as she has no real suspicions. Could be an innocent not sure of what's going on or a wolf not wanting to cast suspicions to soon to loudly.

Post 93

Repeats that her vote will be random as she has no idea how to form some suspicions. Same as above.

Posts 96-97

Votes for Shelob using a completely random method of the eenie meenie minie mo sort, hoping it was a good vote. If this wasn't her first ww game, I would be concerned, as generally it's better to vote for someone you think at least could be suspicious (I'd say). As it is, I'm not sure. This could be an easy way to hide.

Post 148

After some more dramatics (Esty, don't get me wrong. If dramatics and in-character stuff is your style of play, go for it. Look at Fea. ), she states for the first time that she thinks one of the wolves is probably among those who voted for Ang. In itself, this is not very suspicious; however, if she were a wolf, I think it would be safe to say that none of these four (now three) people she is accusing are wolves. From what we've seen so far of Esty, I wouldn't doubt that if she were a wolf in this game, caution would be her preferred style of play, not incriminating her fellow wolves any more than absolutely necessary to keep up appearances. And if her fellow wolf is Fea, as I suggested in my above post, this could work well.

Post 158

Repeats her suspicions of those four who voted for Ang; see above. She also mentions that Shelob's early vote for Lhuna is curious, and wonders what that might tell us about Shelob. She seems to be trying to cast some guilt on her, more deflection of attention.

Post 174

This is her first really substantial post of the game. She starts out repeating her suspicions of those four Ang-voters, though she doesn't seem to be very firm about those. For everyone else she names as being possibly suspicious, she seems to immediately negate that sentiment with a "but I'm not sure" or "there's not enough evidence." The only candidate she names as being wholly unsuspicious is TGBWS because his logic seems sound to her - who both days has voted with her consecutively for Shelob. She also does not identify Fea ("unpredictable") or LMP ("not enough information") as being particularly innocent or guilty. Interesting that she has not commented on at all the voting of me, LMP, and Morm for Cailin, neither to think we're innocent or guilty because of it, which just about everyone else has. It could have been an oversight, but I would think that it would factor in. This phrase, finishing her post, caught my eye just now: "So far I can't recognize the seer, but that's probably good. If I could, I'm sure the experienced wolves would as well!" Something about this turn of a phrase doesn't sit well with me. Now that I try to explain it, it doesn't work, but it made me go "What?"

Post 178

She votes for Shelob, having noticed that TGWBS has also voted for her. She mentions that she is hesitant to do so but goes ahead with it anyway because she is her greatest suspicion. Because of this, I don't think she would be a wolf with TGWBS, but it's possible. They could be bluffing, and with wolves able to talk all day, it would be easy enough for them to plan it. Hm...

Post 205

All dramatics. I don't think anything can be taken out of it.

Post 214

Most suspiciously, that's the post that's had me singing "Santa Claus is Coming to Town" all day... Seriously though: She defends her position of having voted for Shelob two days in row along with TGBWS. As support she mentions that Formen and Boromir have both voted for the same person as well - deflecting the spotlight off of her and TGWBS. I don't think she would deflect attention onto a fellow wolf like that, so if she is a wolf I dobut Formen or Boromir is as well. She also questions whether the wolves were actually going after the ranger or the person he was guarding. Genuine or an attempt to make it look like she doesn't know what the wolves are doing?

Post 220

She says that her vote for Shelob was made regardless of what TGWBS did because Shelob topped her suspect list, which is true enough. She had been suspicious of Shelob, though I suppose the wolves could have had Shelob targeted. That sounds a little far-fetched though, and it seems more likely that if she is a wolf, TGWBS is not her partner but possibly someone she attached herself to, or even someone with no intended connection at all.

Post 224

She goes back to her theory that one of the wolves voted for Ang, in particular looking at Encai. She also suggests a possible Encai/Fea partnership. Honest, or trying to distance herself from Fea?

Post 235

Here is where she comments on her own enjoyment of getting into a role a bit more and being rather dramatic. Whether she is innocent or guilty, I think this can be taken as written in good intent - meaning that any dramatics are not a sign of guilt.

Post 240

She states that her suspect list hasn't narrowed definitively, though she puts emphasis on Encai, Fea, Formendacil, and Lhuna. This could be starting to push the Fea/Esty theory.

Post 243

Says she will be back early for her, late in voting to cast vote. Nothing indicitive there.

So while a lot she says can be construed to look suspicious, or even flat out just does look suspicious, most of the possibilities for who she could be partnered with get to a far-fetched point. The one thing I have noticed is that she is very good at either staying out of the limelight in the first place or deflecting it once it gets there. I've not made my mind up yet.

That sure took long enough! And, now that I look at it, it is rather lengthy. Sorry about that.

Cross-posting with Boromir, Morm, and Formendacil.

[Firefoot]

In response to Morm: I'll try to hold my vote for a while, but staying up that late doesn't agree with my body. Also, I have to be up fairly early tomorrow. So I'll see what I can do.

Lhuna – 1 (TGWBS 1)
Formendacil 1 – (Boromir 2)
Fea – 1 (Formendacil 3)

If this and the day's discussions have been any indication, the voting will be close again. I could (at least theoretically) see myself voting for any of those three (or others) at this point.