Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[wilwarin538]

Well I'm not even going to try to defend myself since you all seem so sure about me. But I will tell you(though it probably won't do much) that it will be a mistake if you lynch me.

I think Morm is the one lying about being the Hunter. I really don't think a wolf would pretend to be the Hunter after someone already admitted to it.

Yesterday I voted for Alcarillo, it was obviously one of my mistakes(I seem to be making a lot of those). I was terribly wrong about Eomer.

Now if both Morm and I were wolves, I seriously doubt we both would have voted for Alcarillo, especially within a few posts of each other. Eomer was most likely going to be lynched, that was fairly obvious at that point I believe. So I don't think two of the other wolves would have tried to get the voting in another direction. I was a fool to follow along with it.

Now let me guess. You are all going to say this was all a wolfish trick. Well fine. But it isn't.

I am going to vote now. Hopefully this will be my first right vote in the game(even though for all we know my vote for Alcarillo could have still been right)

++Mormegil

crossposted with Boro

[The Saucepan Man]

Ack! Boromir88! Just as I was beginning to get a good feeling about you, you go and put in an early vote. Don’t get me wrong. I still view morm as the more likely Wolf out of our two possible Hunters. But I intend to wait and hear what everyone has to say before finally making up my mind and casting my vote.

Now that I think on’t, you are habitually one of the earliest voters. Is there any reason in particular for that?

And could you also put my mind to rest on one other tiny residual niggle that I have. Am I to understand you to be saying that your response to Cailin’s comment about Eomer being a suicidal Wolf shows that you realised at that point that she was the Seer and that this therefore speaks in your favour? It’s just that, while I don’t doubt that you (like me) were confident of her identity by the start of the next Day, I don’t see anything in your response there to suggest that you realised it there and then.

I’m not accusing you. Not yet, anyway. It’s just that, even if it is the case (as I believe) that mormegil and wilwa are Wolves, there is still one more to catch. And I am fairly sure that, as things have developed during yester-Day and to-Day, that Wolf will have been doing his or her darnedest to distance him/her-self from the other Wolves. So, while I am inclined to trust some more than others, I am still not discounting anybody (except whoever out of morm and Abercrombie turns out not to be a Wolf).

Wilwarin has said nothing to assuage my belief in her guilt. Her vote for mormegil does not surprise me, nor does it reassure me about her. And I don’t regard it as unlikely that two Wolves voted for Alcarillo yester-Day. The point has been made on a number of occasions that Wolves like to spread their votes around, so perhaps they thought that we would assume that two Wolves would not vote for the same person. Certainly, that’s what wilwarin seems to be claiming in her defence.

And, while on the subject of Alcarillo – where the deuce is he? His silence does concern me, because I have seen him about over the last Day or so. Did he speak at all yester-Day? He certainly did not vote, and he has not spoken yet to-Day. Why on earth would that be?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now if both Morm and I were wolves, I seriously doubt we both would have voted for Alcarillo, especially within a few posts of each other. Eomer was most likely going to be lynched, that was fairly obvious at that point I believe. So I don't think two of the other wolves would have tried to get the voting in another direction. I was a fool to follow along with it.

No I don't either and you make a mistake in saying this Wilwa, for when my innocence is proven, as it surely will be today, you will be implicated further. So I truly hope that you are not innocent.

*Sigh* I don't know what else I can say. I've been accused of making up crazy theories but it seems they are being made up about me too. Why would a Morm-Wolf (knowing the way these things work) declare himself the wolf? The only possible reason would be to flush out the Hunter. The Hunter is usually a liability and they usually (always?) kill innocents. Why would the wolves be worried about them? I was rather taken aback when AoR claimed to be the Hunter too. If you lynch me today I promise you all that you will loose your last gifted! I know that won't be taken seriously but mark my words. The only person I see speaking any sense today, besides myself, is Márcolië Lamen.

SpM since you seem to think me guilty but at least have a level head about it please do an analysis of what an innocent mormegil would mean and strategy for tomorrow. That way you can get a head start on it.

I see Wilwa's vote yesterday as an attempt to save her friend. I will pride myself on knowing that I helped flush out two wolves if Wilwa turns out to be one too. I knew Alcarillo would not be lynched but that Eomer would. So a vote for him was rather meaningless. However the wolves would view this as a chance to not vote for their comrade and give him a fighting chance. Think about it. And SpM please take my request seriously. If you are innocent you will thank me in the end.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Why would a Morm-Wolf (knowing the way these things work) declare himself the wolf? (emphasis added)

Freudian slip, anyone?

[arcticstorm]

AS of right now, I am beginning to lean more towards the innocence of Mormegil, but that may change by the end of the day. My reason behind this is that I do not understand why a fake hunter would reveal himself when the real one is out there still. I am confused about this whole affair.

[Márcolië Lamen]

Why would a fake hunter declare himself when the hunter is out there or when the hunter just declared himself. Either way they know they're going to die. Its the same logic.

I'm thinking we may want to think about wilwarin and see if any more freudian slips or other hints come out from anyone.

I wouldn't say there's any reason to go against artic for feeling differently than us. Its best to have an innocent devil's advicate in case we're wrong.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Marcolie

Why would a fake hunter declare himself when the hunter is out there or when the hunter just declared himself. Either way they know they're going to die. Its the same logic.

Precisely. The difference, however, being that, prior to both revelations, I had directly accused mormegil of being a Wolf and Marcolie had indicated strong suspicions, whereas Abercrombie had not come under much suspicion at all. Surely the one under the greater pressure is the one more likely to resort to such a desperate ploy.

To coin a phrase used by our dearly departed Seer, are you sure you want to align yourself with a suicidal Wolf, Arctic?

I'd like to hear more from Abercrombie on this. And I'd also like to hear something - anything - from Azaelia and Alcarillo.

[The Saucepan Man]

... a thought just occurred to me.

A question for the Holberator.

Does the Hunter's Night-time target hold for the next Day, or does the Hunter get to make a fresh choice (ie one different from the previous Night) if s/he is lynched by the Village during the Day?

[mormegil]

So SpM your mind is obviously closed to the possibility of my innocence. I wrote that post first thing when I woke up and was needing to run because I was running late. I feel so frustrated now, I came out hoping to help the village and all I get for my efforts are jeers and nitpicking. So SpM I submit my request again to you--just do an analysis of what it would mean if I am innocent. I want to give you a head start.

I find it telling that two people are willing to vote for me so soon, hoping to start a bandwagon before we even here again from AoR.

Bah! I give up on trying to tell you intransigent ingnoramuses that I am innocent and will begin to focus my attention on finding actual wolves. Because even though you have turned your back on the ranger and now the hunter I will not turn my back on you.

My list of wolves are (in order this time)
1. Abercrombie of Rohan
2. Wilwarin
3. Boromir88

Márcolië Lamen has dropped from my suspect list because of her intelligent thought and being innocent I agree with her strategy. I'm glad I didn't die tonight or you would have died with me

Articstorm has become much lower on my list too. Not cleared 100% though

SaucepanMan while extremely frustrating and bull-headed is not likely guilty, though like Articstorm not 100% cleared.

Azaelia in looking back over Cailin I believe she may have dreamt of her and I believe her to be innocent.

Formendacil I'm still unsure about.

Alcarillo about the same as formendacil, I just can't get a great read on him and was hoping to hear something from him yesterday in regards to my vote but obviously we didn't.

so there is my list take it or leave it.

[Holbytlass]

from the Holberator:

I've always thought that the hunter could decide who to take down with them at time of death, giving the mod a name at night is a courtesy in case the wolves happen to choose them, and during the day if it looks like the hunter is going to be lynched to P.M. a name. Therefore, the name does not have to be the same as the night before.

[Formendacil]

Time slips away... fewer hours are left until our next gory evening than from this morning...

I am still of the opinion that Morm is the wolf and Abercrombie is the real Hunter- but I still think we should lynch Wilwarin- getting rid of the most obvious wolf, and allowing the wolves to clear up for us just who was/is the Hunter.

And I hope that others will vote the same way...