Werewolf X: The One Saga to Rule them All!

[WaynetheGoblin]

.We are not doing well if we dont get a wolf soon we will lose.

[Eonwe]

how true.

[Boromir88]

Oh my, could the death of our Seer come at a more worse time?

Regarding the voting that took place yesterday, I am very dissapointed. 5 People chose not to vote. One of them I will excuse (Azaelia) because she had a reason, the four who did not vote (excluding Azaelia)...

Gil-galad
Perky
Glirdan
Anguirel

So, Gil-galad, Anguirel you better be able to explain why you did not vote yesterday, leaving us with a double-lynching.

[Celuien]

Oh no. Things do not look good with the loss of the Seer.

Originally Posted by Cailin

Too bad you felt the need to vote for me, so I hope you will really, really regret it when I am lynched and turn out to be innocent.

I do. I'm very sorry, Cailin. We seem to have been two innocents caught up in a web of suspicions.

Long post coming soon...

[Celuien]

Okay, here's the complete set of theories. I know that the ill-fated duel with Cailin brought me onto the suspicion list, but yesterDAY I was pretty convinced one of the following theories was correct:

1) A Kuruharan/Cailin wolf duo was in play:
Their posts seemed like perfect wolf strategy. Cailin would pick a fight with me, Kuru would say he found us both suspicious as a result, both fanning the flames between us and giving him distance from Cailin.
2) Cailin was a wolf who was trying to cast suspicion on me and was playing off of Kuru’s finding us both odd.
3) Kuru was a wolf stirring the pot between two innocents, hoping we’d finish each other off while he could sit back from a comfortable distance.

I didn’t have time to post this with my vote as I was already running late. Since we now know that Cailin was innocent, 1 and 2 are definitely excluded. And Kuru’s posts during the vote discussion yesterday (and the one I just saw for toDAY while writing this post) have made me seriously question theory 3. In other words, I do not suspect Kuru right now.

At least we have yesterDAY’s voting record (given below with all votes in order and including the number of votes for each person at the time cast):

Votes:
Dancing Spawn……Glirdan (1)
Celuien……………Cailin (1)
Kitanna……………Glirdan (2)
Lalaith……………..Perky Ent (1)
Boromir88…………Gil-Galad (1)
Cailìn………………Anguirel (1)
Márcolië Lamen…...Anguirel (2)
WaynetheGoblin…...Glirdan (3)
Kuruharan…………Gil-Galad (2)
the phantom……….Cailin (2)
Eonwe……………...Cailin (3)
------Voting closed-------------------
The Perky Ent……..Gil-Galad (3rd after close)

Non-voters:
Zali (excused)
Glirdan (proven innocent)
Anguirel
Gil-Galad

I’m almost sure that there’s a wolf to be found among the non-voters. Either Anguirel or Gil-Galad could have stopped the double-lynching yesterday but chose not to do so. I’ll be eagerly awaiting their explanations. Eonwe also looks suspicious for her late (5 minutes before closing) vote that caused the Cailin/Glirdan tie (Glirdan already had 3 votes an hour earlier).

Originally Posted by Eonwe

please remember, i don't really have a suspicion(s) right now, just plying my knife in the dark. come what may.
cross posted with the phantom we use the same logic!

I'm not sure why she felt the need to point out thinking like the phantom - unless it was to cover a questionable tie-making vote by saying it was just the same thing a trusted phantom did. I know that the vote could have been a genuine error since Perky would have caused a triple lynch had his vote come in before the deadline, but I still think that Eonwe has some explaining to do.

So, my possible wolves based on the non-voter/tie-maker combinations are Eonwe, Anguirel, or Gil.

There could very well be wolves in the votes cast for non-lynchees yesterday to spread themselves out.

Finally, I’m very well aware that at least a few of you will find me very suspicious today. All I can say I that I’m not a wolf. I don’t expect anyone to simply take my word for it, but if you’ll just give me a chance, I’ll try to prove that I only have the best interests of the village at heart.

[Eonwe]

Originally posted by Celuien:

I'm not sure why she felt the need to point out thinking like the phantom - unless it was to cover a questionable tie-making vote by saying it was just the same thing a trusted phantom did. I know that the vote could have been a genuine error since Perky would have caused a triple lynch had his vote come in before the deadline, but I still think that Eonwe has some explaining to do.

*ehem* that's a he

no i wasn't trying to alighn my self with the phantom. I think that he is a really good candidate for being chosen to be a wolf (unless its random, idk, this being my first time). please note i have no suspicioun (as yet) of the phantom.

Im not sure, but i want to investigate Boromir and Kuru. they seem like they could be working together, but it also seems to be to closely to be suspicious. right now, that is where my thought will go.

[Kitanna]

Our seer dead? Oh dear...
Though judging by Perky's posts I don't think he dreamt of a wolf. Probably just an innocent. At least that's what I think because Perky really didn't accuse anyone, he simply said "so and so has fallen under my radar"

But I am going to be quite bold here and say I believe at least one wolf voted for Glirdan and one voted for Cailin. As for the other wolf, I am not sure. It is possibly the last didn't vote at all.

But I suggest looking to those who voted without much of a reason.
Right now I am quite worried about Wayne. He said one thing at the beginning of the day and then came in suddenly saying he thought Glirdan was suspicious and gave no reason. Then he voted for Glirdan with no reason to back it up. I am not so sure about dancing spawn. I don't find her overly suspious, but I don't find her all that trustworthy.
As for those that voted for Cailin, I'm quite in the dark on who to suspect. Though I think the phantom may be innocent, but I am unsure of the others.

She voiced suspicions of Perky

I do not recall saying any such thing. Infact, I thought Perky was innocent.
I realize with Perky and Glirdan dead it looks rather bad for me. But I know I am innocent. Also what cause would I have to go after Perky? He had said I was on his suspect list and any sensible wolf would know not to go after someone who suspects you.

[Boromir88]

I don't know how much we can get off of the votes from yesterday though. To me it seemed like a bunch of random accusations and random votes.

I will admit my vote for Gil-galad I was not very convinced that he was a wolf. But at that time he looked to me to be the most wolfish. Though Gil-galad baffles me, it seems he wants to look like a wolf, it's like he's a kamikaze wolf. Doing everything we would expect a wolf to do and not offering a shred of defense. Perhaps, that is his defense, or perhaps he's trying to attempt a double-bluff in looking like a wolf?

The only thing I can really tell from the votes yesterday, is I'm more confident that Anguirel or Gil-galad is a wolf. Though again, I'm not certain at this point.

I say this because they did not vote at all and a double lynching was acheived. Now this is a bold moves by wolves, because I'm sure they would expect suspicion. So, I would think that if lets say one person did not vote, that person would not be a wolf, because to allow a double lynching and be the only person not to vote would look far too suspicious. but with multiple people not voting (5!!!) a wolf hiding in the no-votes would be more protected.

[Kuruharan]

Rereading Perky's list it appears the first three are in order. Well, it doesn't matter. The point is everyone who posted is on that list and why would Perky leave himself out?

Kitanna Post 38

“Voiced suspicions” does not mean outright accusation (or I would have said “outright accusation”). It does mean that you viewed him with skepticism (which in theory is justified) and drew attention to him. I did the same thing myself in one post. However, your subsequent behavior is disturbing, to put it mildly. It is more of an adding effect rather than one particular instance.

We'd all be interested to hear a more in depth response.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

We'd all be interested to hear a more in depth response.

And what would you like to hear exactly? I am sure there is nothing I can say that will completely change your mind.

[Celuien]

Afterthought -

The triple lynch suspicion caveat only works, of course, if Gil-Galad truly is innocent. I'll have to review Perky's posts to see if there's a hint that he happened to dream of Gil and found a lycanthrope. That would be fortunate for us!

And I agree that it's unlikely that two wolves sat out the vote yesterday. One hiding in the group is far safer for them.

[Eonwe]

sigh...i guess i had it coming. however....

.

Oridginally posted by Kuru

Eonwe - Suspicious. Did not say much and was reluctant to commit himself for the longest time. Then he cast the deciding vote that sealed a double hanging. He may or may not have seen the phantom’s vote before he voted. He bears close watching. I think either he or the phantom is a wolf.

I was reluctant for a very long time. I only decided to vote at around 6:50. And mostly you swayed my decision, Kuru. I did not see the phantoms post until after i posted. random bad luck. as for the phantom...i cannot say. i would also like to quote some other stuff for my benifit

originally posted by me

please remember, i don't really have a suspicion(s) right now, just plying my knife in the dark. come what may.

Kuru agina

...and it helps spread out the range of possibilities.

this is what really made me decide to vote. and the rest of taht post.

[Kuruharan]

The triple lynch suspicion caveat only works, of course, if Gil-Galad truly is innocent. I'll have to review Perky's posts to see if there's a hint that he happened to dream of Gil and found a lycanthrope. That would be fortunate for us!

I think we can take it as a given that Perky dreamed about Glirdan. That is probably what completely doomed him.

And what would you like to hear exactly? I am sure there is nothing I can say that will completely change your mind.

And I'm glad you realize it. You do need outside help (which is suddenly in short supply) but you'd better try anyway. You never know.

Now, time for dinner...I mean breakfast!! Where's my meat and cheese lover's pizza?!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I think we can take it as a given that Perky dreamed about Glirdan. That is probably what completely doomed him.

I see what you mean. Scratch that idea.

[Kuruharan]

Well, that was a fiasco. I was afraid Perky was the seer. He broadcast too many hints.

For some reason my mind is wanting to structure things in pairs. (see below)

Vote order from yesterday-

Spawn-Glirdan
Celuien-Cailín
Kitanna-Glirdan
Lalaith-Perky Ent
Boromir88-Gil-Galad
Cailín-Anguirel
Márcolië Lamen-Anguirel
Kuruharan-Gil-Galad
WaynetheGoblin-Glirdan
the phantom-Cailín
Eonwe-Cailín

Now, to the survivors thus far…

Anguirel- Suspicious. Strange. Unhelpful. Unfortunately, at the moment, there is not much else to say about him. He did attract two votes yesterday.

Azealia of Willowbottom- Impossible to say right now.

Boromir88- Not too suspicious. Did not vote for a known innocent.

Celuien- Mildly suspicious. The surviving half of the Dueling C’s. I’m not as suspicious at the moment, but requires constant watching. Voted for Cailín. In her favor she advocated an active hunt (for whatever that is worth).

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant - Suspicious. First to vote for Glirdan. She began suspecting him on account of his fiery defense. I find this a little odd. As we just saw, innocent villagers are just as likely to mount an aggressive defense as a werewolf (perhaps even more so). More on this below. On a more positive side, she did argue against lynching Azealia. On a potentially more sinister side she and Lalaith seemed to be running in harness some of the time. Much more on this below.

Eonwe - Suspicious. Did not say much and was reluctant to commit himself for the longest time. Then he cast the deciding vote that sealed a double hanging. He may or may not have seen the phantom’s vote before he voted. He bears close watching. I think either he or the phantom is a wolf.

Gil-Galad- Suspicious. Strange. Unhelpful. A Cad. Garnered votes from Boromir88 and myself yesterday. I am still very wary of him but at this moment I don’t intend to focus much energy on him toDAY unless he does something strange even for him. Did not vote yesterDAY. Caused some attention to be focused on Kitanna (more below).

Kitanna- Alarming. She voiced suspicions of Perky, who has now bought the farm and was our Seer. Kitanna also claimed to be made suspicious by Glirdan’s vigorous defense. I claim I find suspicious. She’s also done a good job of avoiding attention and of itself is suspicious. She requires very careful watching. Gil-Galad’s guilt I think is closely bound to Kitanna’s. I don’t think they can both be guilty since Gil-Galad drew so much attention to her yesterDAY.

Kuruharan- Innocent. While I was one of the first to voice suspicions about Glirdan, I was also one of the first to later say I thought he was innocent. I hope this speaks in my favor.

Lalaith- Alarming. I think I need to re-evaluate my hiring practices. She says waaaay to little for our own good. Her few statements have been marvels of non-substance. Then she and Spawn seem to join purposes for awhile. This could be a wolf trying to latch on an innocent, one way or the other. She voted against our Seer.

Márcolië Lamen- Vaguely suspicious. Difficult to get a read on. Must watch.

the phantom- Ahem…well somebody needs to say this. Suspicious. Considering his vote I don’t think it could be anything else at the moment. I can easily see how that was just a strategy to spread votes gone terribly awry. However, I can also easily see that it could be a wolf trick to attempt to throw away the vote only to have it backfire on him. Perky’s death also increases my suspicion of him (although, I admit, for no rational reason that I can see). I’m afraid the phantom is going to have to prove himself by being instrumental in lynching a wolf this DAY to ease suspicion on him. Otherwise he may be in some real trouble.

WaynetheGoblin- Suspicious. Strange. Weird. Unhelpful. Voted for an innocent yesterDAY. Needs watching.

So, in my mind there are a couple of pairs operating here.

Phantom and Eonwe
Spawn and Lalaith
Gil-Galad and Kitanna

Either the phantom or Eonwe may be guilty. This may be a prospect worth some serious investigation. I doubt both of them are though (although ultimately one should not dismiss the possibility since the werewolves cannot directly communicate with each other during the DAY).

Both Spawn and Lalaith may be guilty. I am particularly suspicious of Lalaith at this moment.

Either Gil-Galad or Kitanna may be guilty, but I doubt both are. At this moment I am also rather suspicious of Kitanna.

Those are my thoughts at the moment, make what you will of them.

I also reserve the right to change my mind for no apparent reason at the drop of a hat.