Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I'm back!

Sorry for not contributing as much as I would have liked. Those mushrooms can't be left unharvested and it's been a long day in the fields.

Mushroom anyone?

My thoughts on the proceedings to date:

The phantom: Not a Bear for the reasons that he and others have stated. The Bear will not be doing anything to draw attention to him/her-self to-Day. Not the Cobbler because he put forward an ant-Wolf plan and, in any event, the Cobbler does not need to draw attention to him/her-self to-Day. If he's bluffing, he's a Wolf. After all, the Bear will already have concluded that trying to kill the Wolves is to his/her benefit, and so a Wolfish phantom loses nothing by saying it, but can use it to point to his innocence. But I tend to think that he is merely an innocent villager putting forward a sensible proposal to the Bear.

Glirdan has got my suspicions up. He(?) talks a lot but does little more than agree with what others have posted and repeat the accusations and points that others have made. Might he be a beast trying to stay inconspicuous?

Meneltarmacil has done little to counter the (admittedly light-hearted) accusations made against him. He merely asks the reason for the accusations. Is he a beast trying not to say too much and thus avoid being caught out?

Kath suggests that people vote for the phantom if they think that he's the Cobbler (as many seem to). The phantom is almost certainly not the Cobbler. Is she suggesting that people vote for him because she is a lycanthrope and wants to try to eliminate a potentially dangerous opponent while avoiding openly accusing him herself?

As for those who have said little or nothing to date, I will not be holding this against them. Not only does it seem unfair to vote for those who have not had an opportunity to defend themselves, but it seems unlikely to me that a beast would do such a thing on the first Day. As has been shown, it draws too much suspicion. And Wayne is probably just a new guy slightly unsure of himself. He may be worth a vote in a Day or two if he continues to be unhelpful. But not yet.

I plan on voting for someone who has contributed reasonably regularly without giving too much away. Glirdan, Menel and Kath seem to fit this category nicely, although I will review proceedings to see whether there might be any other suitable candidates.

[Kath]

Kath suggests that people vote for the phantom if they think that he's the Cobbler (as many seem to). The phantom is almost certainly not the Cobbler. Is she suggesting that people vote for him because she is a lycanthrope and wants to try to eliminate a potentially dangerous opponent while avoiding openly accusing him herself?

No Mr Saucepan Man I am not. What I was trying to do was put right something I think shouldn't happen, the habit of not voting for a person just because they are loud. the phantom was simply an example since at the time some people believed him to be suspicious.

I think I am going to have to vote now as I daren't miss the deadline and I do have to go to bed at some point! My suspicions earlier lay upon Menel, SamwiseGamgee and mormegil and I have to say that I haven't really felt that any of them have cleared themselves, at least in my view. But I have to vote for one and as I can't choose I will simply pick the first from the list so:

++MENELTARMACIL

[Cailín]

Well, I have been rereading this discussion, but don't feel all the much wiser for it. However, bed is calling, and I will have to make a decision now.

Folwren, Durelin, Nilp, Gil-Galad, Wayne and Bergil all have said too little or nothing at all to raise my suspicion. Voting for any of them doesn't seem like a sensible thing to do if we want to save our beloved village as soon as possible.

Holbytlass, TGWBS, The Saucepan Man, Kitanna, wilwarin538 and Shelob all seem innocent to me, so far.

Meneltarmacil has been accused many times, especially of being the bear and even rather pointedly by Folwren. This certainly draws attention and they may have seen things I missed.

Alcarillo, our dear mayor, has not behaved very tactfully today. But even Presidents make political mistakes every now and then and this is a rather stressful period for him. So, I have no real suspicion towards him.

Kath has been highly opinionated, too fierce maybe. Perhaps she took the attack on her garden very personally? I will be watching her, that's certain.

The Phantom drew the most attention today, but even though his plan is not extremely helpful, it is not a bad plan either. I hope the Werebear sees the sense in it, too.

Azaelia of Willowbottom... a bad feeling. I can't help it. Too innocent with all her cute little flowers.

mormegil is a newcomer in our town and I am surprised not all fingers pointed towards him immediately. He definitely seems to have a strong position, even though he has only been with us for a short time, and therefore could be dangerous.

SamwiseGamgee, I just don't know about him. A lot of you seem to suspect him, but his reaction to the phantom and Kath's accusation seemed too rash for a well-thinking wolf.

Glirdan is my main suspect. He has been pointing fingers a lot, especially to the quiet, inexperienced ones, and seems to want to be good friends with everybody, agreeing and nodding a lot, changing his mind randomly... I am aware I did so myself a few times, but I was suffering from a great shock, you know. Since I will be retiring soon, I will now vote for

++GLIRDAN

and hope the best of it.

[mormegil]

I will vote

++KATH

one other reason to add is that she voted for my other suspect (Menel) which makes me think she is trying to throw our attention to him, who many have mentioned, thus avoiding the noose today herself.

[mormegil]

Kath I will respond to your queries by saying that Menel and I voted 2 minutes apart which I would call a cross post. I noticed that he voted the same way right after I posted. And you said that my vote for you came out of the blue. My vote was in post# 81 but in post# 64 I said

Kath is worrying me a bit. Again something just doesn't sit right and another gut feeling

I just haven't been able to feel good about you yet. I'm not 100% sure as to why but there seems to be some inconsistency. I explained my vote for you in #81 saying that you voted for the other person I suspected most (Menel) and therefore I thought you to be the more likely person, hoping that I would jump on your bandwagon.

Now I could be wrong but I think there is more than meets the eye with Kath.

I would posit that Kath and Azaelia are wolves. They are avoiding the mention of each other and both are suspcious yet disconnected.

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil). I would much rather kill somebody we find connected to Alcarillo and determine from their. Such as Azaelia.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I have the same doubts about Glirdan's guilt that are expressed by SPM, Cailin, and morm.

I am prepared to give Glirdan the benefit of the doubt for another Day. He seems too easily swayed by the opinion of others. But if he continues to flip-flop, there will come a time when he will reach the top of my suspect list.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Shelob voted for me, so naturally I'd like to suspect her (though I know there's probably no true reason to).

The only reason to suspect Shelob at the moment is that she is doing a good job of "flying under the radar" - staying active and voicing suspicions without giving too much away.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Alca voted for a candidate he figured would get jumped on by others. This might be guilty behavior- however he is showing a lot of faith in his fellow villagers to finish the job. Would a wolf be so willing to leave things to chance? I wouldn't have myself.

I find Alcarillo's vote yesterday suspicious, but I find it hard to believe that he would, on Night 2, be so bold to kill the villager who voted for him yesterday and against whom he was notoriously antagonistic.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wilwa was the second to hop on the Bergil vote. Was she a wolf trying to put an innocent safely in the lead, or an innocent figuring we have to lynch someone, it might as well be Bergil?

To my mind she is the least suspicious of those who voted for Bergil. If Alcarillo is guilty, it's unlikely that another Wolf would have followed his vote so soon after he had cast it. If he is innocent, then a Wolf might just as likely voted for him or (more likely) added another innocent to the mix.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Wayne stepped in and voted for Alca, putting him into a tie with Bergil. Was Wayne an innocent thinking I don't want to vote for Bergil- Alca seems like a better idea, or a wolf thinking I think I should tie up the lead between two innocents?

Alcarillo was one of the leading accusers of Wayne early in the Day. I tend to think Wayne was just voting in response to that. Of course, if Alcarillo is guilty, Wayne is likely to be innocent of Wolvery.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Holby put Bergil into the lead over Kath and Anca. Was she a wolf saving one of her fellow wolf's skin, or was she an innocent that didn't want to see a triple lynching and figured Bergil was as good as anyone?

If either Alcarillo or Kath is guilty then Holby will have some serious questions to answer. With (as far as she knew) 10 votes still to go, I don't see that saving a double-lynching comes into it. But, for now, I am prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Azaelia's last minute vote seems a bit odd. Why vote so late for someone who already appears to be on their way to the gallows? Was she an innocent who felt it her duty to vote, and so she, not knowing in the least who to vote for, simply tacked on her vote to the favorite of the day? Or was she a wolf and felt that her fellow wolf (Alca) was too close to the lead for comfort, and wanted to pad Bergil's total?

As I said earlier, Azaelia's last minute vote is very strange. She said that she thought the Wolves had been active during the Day and yet voted for someone who had not spoken all Day, thus sealing his fate. As the phantom has noted, with 5 votes left to cast it remained possible that other villagers would show up at the end of the Day to vote for Alcarillo (or even Kath or Glirdan, both of whom had 2 votes) so she could well have been voting to save a fellow Wolf.

And even if Alcarillo is innocent, she still remains suspicious, given that she and Gil-Galad both led the accusations against Alcarillo at the start of to-Day - which might be considered Wolfish if TGWBS's death was an attempt to set him up.

I am very wary of Azaelia.

Originally Posted by Kath

My suspicions still lie with Menel and mormegil though it is difficult to find reasons to support this.

I have few suspicions of mormegil at this stage. He seems to be genuine in his efforts to address our perilous situation. And the only basis for suspecting Menel is that he is posting frequently but contributing little. Which also applies to you, Kath. I would prefer to see a little solid reasoning behind your accusations.

Originally Posted by Folwren

TGWBS was killed last night by the wolves...why?

There are a number of reasons. He could have been killed because he was close to the truth (which would point to Alcarillo's guilt). As the phantom said, the Wolves may have thought him the Seer. Or he could have been killed to set up Alcarillo, who was the leading vote-getter yester-Day behing Bergil. Or it may simply have been because TGWBS said very little yester-Day and therefore did not leave much of a trail.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Could you please explain to me why killing TGWBS would set up Alca?

Because the only trail that TGWBS did leave points towards Alcarillo. You yourself have accused Alcarillo on the basis of TGWBS‘s death. If Alcarillo is innocent, the Wolves would have known that TGWBS‘s death would lead to such accusations against him and make him (rather than a Wolf) a likely candidate for lynching to-Day.

As an aside, it is interesting that Alcarillo was not TGWBS's Hunter target. Something obviously made him change his mind, although he unfortunately chose the wrong alternative target.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It seems as though the current thought is "kill Alcarillo, innocent or guilty, and let's find out for sure" I can see that some information could be gleened from this, but I for one loathe killing people I find innocent (i.e. Bergil).

I share your unease, particularly as, on balance, I tend to think Alcarillo innocent (of Wolvery at least). But, unless we are able identify a beast with some degree of certainty, I fear that lynching Alcarillo might be the best plan we have. He is at the centre of most theories being put forward. If he is guilty, the votes cast yester-Day become very illuminating as it is likely that at least one of his fellow Wolves was trying to save him. On the other hand, if he is innocent, then those who have been strongly accusing him to-Day will fall under suspicion on the basis that TGWBS's death was probably a set-up. And there is always a possibility that he's the Bear, although it's a long shot.

If I had to name the villager most likely to be a Wolf in my opinion, it would be Azaelia. But I am by no means certain and I am not sure how much we would learn from her death if she turns out to be innocent.

[mormegil]

I have two things I would like to address now.

I recently thought of a frightening possibility--that is both SpM and the phantom are wolves and working together. It would seem at first glance that they are not but upon reading closer they are becoming more agreeable after initially having some hostility. Distance yourself dramatically at the start and slowly merge into the same, seems a good strategy for two very intelligent people who are well known to disagree. I don't think I am correct in this but I wanted to raise the idea because if it were true the ramifications would be frightening. They are both very clever and can easily sway most people. So the two combined would be incredible. See how they weave this web and we all follow. Again it's unlikely that this is the case but I wanted to mention it. If they are innocent their teamwork is much to our advantage.

Secondly where is durelin? I noticed I had her vote incorrect. I thought she voted Bergil but according to SpM it was SpM. Why did she delete that vote? And where is she today?

[Glirdan]

I see some of you have accused my of being a werecreature. Why would I kill one of my best customers who is also one of my dearest friends. As for the Llama, I like llama's. They're cute and cuddly and I would never do anything to harm Shelob.

As for me being hasty in voting for Wayne. I take that back. I will not vote for Wayne. I was just in grief and shock after the death of poor Enca and he was the only one who made me suspicous of anybody.

The phantom convinced me that he is no werecreature or cobbler.

I will not vote for Bergil until he has said something. If he hasn't said anything I might vote for him.

Kittana is making me suspicious because of her saying that voting for Bergil is "utterly ridiculous". She might get my vote.

Menel and Alcarillo both seem inocent. People are accusing Menel due to the fact that he's the zoo-keeper. Our dear mayor hasn't done anything of great suspicon today and I see no point in voting for him.

Wilwa, Folwren, Holby and Shelob all seem inocent to me.

TGWBS casting his vote for Alcarillo seems a little suspicous to me. Maybe he's the wolf, wants to get rid of the current mayor and become mayor instead. He is on the list.

The rest are all to silent to vote for. I will wait a little longer before casting my vote.

[Kitanna]

Kitanna is making me suspicious because of her saying that voting for Bergil is "utterly ridiculous". She might get my vote.

Oh yes, I must be a wolf because I find it unfair to lynch someone who has not yet defended himself. Despite the fact of course there could have been RL problems, no no, I must be suspicious because RL problems of another player should not be taken into account here.

I care not what anyone thinks. I would rather see Bergil defend himself before throwing a vote out for him. Should he live past today and remains silent tomorrow then I will most likely vote for him, but until that time I will not do such a thing.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Azaelia of Willowbottom... a bad feeling. I can't help it. Too innocent with all her cute little flowers.

I can't help the occupation I chose before any of us knew our roles in the village. What can I say? I like flowers. Maybe I should be suspicious of you because you constantly crochet? It comes to the same thing, all arts and crafts-y.

I'd feel bad about voting for Bergil because he hasn't been able to defend himself. I think that probably all the werewolves are out there, actively posting already. It's beyond me at this early point to decipher who is hiding a fanged and furry secret, though. So unless Bergil shows up in the next 15 minutes, I may vote for him.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Just thought I'd make up a list of votes...

Alcarillo-3 (TGWBS, Wayne, Sauce)
Bergil-3 (Alacrillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass)
Meneltarmacil-1 (Kath)
Kitanna-1 (Gil)
Glirdan-2(Cailin, Kitanna)
Kath-2(Nenel, Mormegil)

And add me to the

++Bergil group just because it's 7:29 and I don't know what else to do.

[Encaitare]

"Sorry, Bergil," the villagers said as they fastened a noose around his neck. "We don't really have any reason to suspect you... but hey, that's they way things go sometimes, isn't it? Some days you're the dog, and some you're the tree." Bergil did not look comforted at all.

"It's not fair!" he said as he stood upon the rickety gallows which he had built himself some time ago.

"It is pretty ironic," the villagers giggled. "But someone's got to die toDay, because that's how it is."

One of them pulled the lever that let the trapdoor fall open, and Bergil fell. So did the entire gallows, pulled apart by the jerk his body made on the rope. The lumber collapsed on him, and there was silence.

"Should we see if he's alive?" they wondered. Cautiously, they lifted the fallen pieces of wood away. Underneath was a blood-covered, clearly dead, and clearly ordinary corpse.

"Someone had better build a new gallows," the villagers muttered as they went off to bed.

~*~*~*~*~

Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
the guy who be short
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Alcarillo
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
the phantom
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
Kitanna
mormegil
Gil-Galad
SamwiseGamgee
Glirdan

The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1

It is now NIGHT 2. I need names from the Wolves, Bear, Seer, Hunter, and Guardian. Wolves may PM; Shirriffs must stop.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Durelin, but her (really late) vote did not affect the outcome of the lynching.

[Encaitare]

DAY 2

The villagers awoke the next morning with some trepidation. As each ate a quick breakfast, he or she hoped that the Werecreatures had not struck again. But when they gathered in the village square, they realized that not one, not two, but three of the villagers were not present: the guy who be short, SamwiseGamgee, and Kitanna.

They went first to SamwiseGamgee’s house…

The previous night, the guy who be short sat in his house, sharpening his various weapons. “I’m almost sure who one of those wolves is… it’s got to be SamwiseGamgee!” he said to himself. “And I’m going to make sure that he doesn’t plague this village anymore!” Stealthily, he sneaked out his back door and over to Samwise’s house.

When he got there, he threw the door open, brandishing his sword Sintúril, Flame of the Short. “Ha-hah!” he shouted. “You wolfish fiend! Behold, I shall slay thee!” Samwise tried to defend himself, but TGWBS overpowered and killed him.

TGWBS had triumphed – but then he thought, “If he was a wolf, why didn’t he change? Oh no!” He realized that he had killed an innocent! In anguish he returned home.

“Oh no!” was what the villagers also thought as they ran to TGWBS’s home. They found his body surrounded by weapons; it seemed the wolves had impaled him on his own sword. On the floor next to him was written (by a wolfish paw, it appeared), SPILLER OF INNOCENT BLOOD.

Finally, they went to Kitanna’s little house on the outskirts of town. They never thought that Kitanna had liked them all very much, not since they had pointed out to her that there was no such thing as the “cable TV” she had always blathered on about.

None of them had even been inside Kitanna’s home before, so the décor quite astounded them. Upon the walls were angry statements, such as STUPID VILLAGERS, I HOPE THEY ALL DIE and WERECREATURES RULE and CABLE IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN SATELLITE. In the next room was Kitanna’s body – and just her body. Her severed head was placed inside a box with the front removed so that her face stared out at them. Yet the villagers seemed even more baffled by the strange messages.

“What does it mean?” they wondered. “Cable? Satellite?”

“Maybe she didn’t like the moon,” one suggested. “And she liked… string.”

“No, dummy, she can’t have not liked the moon if she was on the Werecreatures’ side,” another countered. “But the string… you may have a point there.”

“What a stupid anachronism,” someone finally said, and they all nodded in agreement.

Living:

Folwren
Shelob
Holbytlass
Meneltarmacil
WaynetheGoblin
wilwarin538
Alcarillo
Durelin
Saucepan Man
Kath
the phantom
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Cailín
Nilpaurion Felagund
mormegil
Gil-Galad
Glirdan

The Deceased:

Encaitare (Moderator) - Stuck full of quills by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Llama (Mammal) - Mauled into oblivion by Black Beorning on NIGHT 1
Bergil (Ordinary Villager) - Crushed under the gallows on DAY 1
SamwiseGamgee (Ordinary Villager) – Killed by Hunter on NIGHT 2
TGWBS (Hunter) – Impaled by Wolves on NIGHT 2
Kitanna (Cobbler) – Given a TV closeup by Black Beorning on NIGHT 2

It is now DAY 2. Wolves, stop PMing. Shirriffs may communicate. Have at it, villagers!

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Azaelia of Willowbottom

And add me to the

++Bergil group just because it's 7:29 and I don't know what else to do.

woah... well i find Azaelias post, she could be a werewolf trying to join the crowd with Bergil... shes on my suspicons list

[Gil-Galad]

everyone that voted for Bergil is now on my suspects list

Alacrillo, Wilwa, Holbytlass, Azaelia

and about my vote for Kitanna, my suspicons were right, she was the cobbler and thought that Bergil might be a werewolf... well those four are on my suspects list

[the phantom]

Mr. Saucepan, your assesment of my behavior is correct. I am certainly not the cobbler or bear- wolf is the only possibility, and that possibility is slim seeing as I have attracted attention to myself- which puts me high up on the seer's list to dream about at night. Logically, only someone with nothing to hide would put forth an attention getting plan on the first day.

I don't have too much time right now (I'm trying to divide my attention between this and my daily duties), but someone might want to take a look back at reactions to me. As Saucy said, to the werecreatures I am "a potentially dangerous opponent", so would that make the beasts try to get me lynched?

On the other hand, they might try and buddy up to me during the day in hopes that I would ignore them.

I have more to say before the day is done, but I will wait a bit. I'm not sure if I will vote or not. It depends on who is on the chopping block, whether or not my vote will matter, and if I feel inclined to lynch someone over someone else (which isn't likely, seeing as we have no concrete evidence at this time).

Also, keeping the votes low might help find the wolves. You see, when the voting is very close, the wolves feel more pressure to help out one of their fellows if he/she has a couple votes. Where as, if one person has nine votes and the second place vote getter has only three, if the person with three is a wolf then the other wolves know he/she is safe because the other person is so far ahead.

Perhaps I'm not explaining terribly well, but I think you understand what I am getting at. Having multiple candidates rather than one bandwagon vote-getter sometimes makes the individual votes more meaningful (more telling).