Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[SamwiseGamgee]

It can't work. I already voted for Durelin. Sorry!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Hey guys (and a girl), unfortunately I'm off to bed now. Whatever you decide, I'm up for it.

[Boromir88]

I am the Seer. If I have found the bear I would have fessed up already, but I KNOW two innocents, one I'm pretty confident in.

Indeed Dancing Spawn, I was playing a bold game. My intentions were to stay alive as long as possible, and by doing that I had to look like the bear. The Bear would not kill me if I was being suspected, as long as he/she did not know I was the Seer. So, I may have been playing too boldy, I may not have.

Anyway, I know two innocents...Saucepan and Durelin. Though Durelin appears to be the cobbler. (So, Durelin is not the bear Gurthang).

I feel pretty safe with Dancing Spawn. It appears only her and LMP caught the hints I dropped off...

My only diversion comes when talks of votes coming up.

See, I've been sure of Saucepan's innocents for a while. Hence my defense of him. I also, knew Nonnacedak was innocent, why I did not vote, and tried to take suspicion away. Perhaps, I should have voted for someone who would have gotten more votes, but aye I tried.

To seereally what I try to do is up for your own interpretation. (emphasis mine)

I had known LMP caught on to this so there was no point in dreaming of him. He either was innocent, or I would be killed the next day. Therefor, when I did not die that night I knew of his innocents. And I'm pretty confident in Dancing Spawn, as for a few days now she's suspected me as the Seer, and since I'm still a live I'm pretty confident in her innocents.

So, that leaves...Meneltarmacil, Samwise, and Gurthang.

[The Saucepan Man]

Thanks for coming forward Boromir88. I did strongly suspect you as the Seer, right back to when LMP noted your supposed "diversionary" behaviour, but I could not be sure that you were not the Bear trying to look like the Seer. Certainly, I have never hunted you.

Of course, to be sure, we have to wait and make sure that no one else confesses to being the Seer. I doubt that anyone will.

In case any doubt reamined over my identity, I have just been gathering together all the clues I left to my identity. I'll set them out anyway, as they vouch for Boromir88's innocence too, I believe.

I use the arrow icon on many of my posts, particularly when accusing or putting forward ideas (although it seems that Menel uses this too - I had not noticed before). It's the sign of the Hunter. I would also cite my insistence on Day 1 that we were on starting a wolf hunt (#13 and 22). In my posts, particularly early on, I included lots of references to tracking, hunting, flushing out, bagging etc werecreatures (#80, #85 (final paragraph) and #91 to name but a few). See also posts #97 (having Gil-Galad in my sights - if only I had gone with my initial suspicions of him), #102 and #111 (shooting in the dark). There are more of these references earlier on, although I carried on using them, albeit less frequently, throughout. When I stated my innocence by saying that my words spoke for themselves (#158), I meant it literally. The biggest clue of all, though, was at the end of Day 2 (#184):

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on!

Oh, and all that business yesterday when LMP wondered why I had not been killed? I suspect it’s because the were creatures picked up on my hints and dare not kill me.

It looks now like we can now put Plan A into effect by lynching Durelin. Either Boromir88 or I will probably die to-Night (unless the Bear makes a last ditch attempt to make us look guilty).

I will post later with my ideas on how the voting should go to-Morrow (in case I do die to-Night).

Of course, the Bear could always own up now and save us all the bother (not to mention the lives of innocent Villagers). I'll hold off from voting, just in case he or she does.

[Gurthang]

Wow, I can see that people have finally caught onto my idea of a mass lynching, but with SamwiseGamgee's vote for Durelin, that cannot happen toDay. I agree now that lynching Durelin is a good plan, just so she can't screw things up, not like we have any choice.

I will vote later though. Meneltarmacil has been silent since Saucepan Man annouced his ability. I just want to make sure everyone is on the same page before voting for Durelin.

[Boromir88]

I agree now that lynching Durelin is a good plan, just so she can't screw things up, not like we have any choice.~Gurthang

Or we could even try to find the bear tonight? I am right now most suspicious of Meneltarmacil. But, I would be in favor of all voting for Durelin if that's what is decided.

I will post later with my ideas on how the voting should go to-Morrow (in case I do die to-Night).~Saucepan

I would count on you making through the night, but who knows, just in case it would be a good idea.

I will probably post some final thoughts on people before the day ends.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Or we could even try to find the bear tonight?

I too am most suspicious of Meneltarmacil, due to his silence. There's still a chance, though, that the Bear could be one of the others and that he is buying time to think. So I think that it's too risky to try for the Bear to-Day. If we get it wrong, we have to contend with both Durelin and the Bear to-Morrow and that could mess things up.

So, here's the final plan - Plan C.

First, wait as long as you can before voting, just to make sure that the Bear does not try to pass themselves off as the "real" Hunter or Seer. Then, when you have to vote, vote for Durelin.

If anyone tries to claim that they are the Hunter or the Seer and we can still lynch them to-Day, then we should do so (if we get it wrong, we can lynch the other one to-Morrow). If we can't do that because there are already too many votes for Durelin, then we either go for a double lynching to-Morrow or lynch one to-Morrow and, if we get it wrong, lynch the other the following Day (when there will still be two innocents left).

The following assumes that we lynch Durelin to-Day.

Unfortunately, Boromir88 will probably die to-Night, since the Bear will want to avoid either himself being pinpointed or two innocents being around to-Morrow. Unless I am certain of the Bear, I will not hunt tonight, to avoid killing another innocent. That means that I may die, but then Boromir88 will survive. Happily, whatever the Bear does over-Night, it will not avail him if all goes to plan.

So, tomorrow, we will have (at worst) 1 known innocent, 3 other (unknown) innocents and one Bear. We vote as follows:

A (Hunter or Seer) - does not vote.
B votes for C
C votes for D
D votes for E
E votes for B

That assumes that there is only one known innocent. If there are more, then they don't vote either.

In this situation, the Bear will have to do one of the following:

1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.

2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies to-Morrow, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear (ie the one Villager who did not vote according to the plan) is lynched by the remaining two innocent Villagers the following Day;

3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or

4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.

The plan requires that every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".

The plan guarantees, I think, a victory for the Villagers. It is up to the Bear how many innocents die in the process.

If anyone can see a flaw, please bring it up as soon as possible. Otherwise ...

Let's hunt some Bear!

(Hehe, I have been wanting to say that since Day 1.)

PS There is one question that I must ask of the mighty Moddwen:

Can the Hunter choose not to nominate a victim over-Night?