Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

I don't post so much because I like to read and ponder everything that has been said before jumping in with my own ha'porth. And with so many villagers, there is a lot to ponder!
I have my own theories on yesterday's voting which will take time to explain and I will do so later tonight. But I would like to throw in one question for others to ponder (other than my question about the Bear and the Seer which I repeated twice but no-one has answered! )
Anyway, my question is this. I am puzzled by Gurthang's voting yesterday. When he voted he had 3 votes against him, and Mithalwen six. In his shoes, with seven people still left to vote, I would probably have tried to guarantee my survival by voting for Mithalwen. But he didn't, he voted for Durelin. I'm fairly sure Gurthang isn't a wolf but this was a strange thing to do, could he be the Cobbler?

(And a vote against a cat for an animal activist, even more curious!)

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by LMP
my mildly suspicious list:

Boromir: Is too aggressive in his attacks against Gurthang over the in-character animal rights thing.

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

littlemanpoet, I just want to point out to you that you voted for me yesterday for about that same reason.

Now, I'm completely confused by CaptainOfDespair, Gil-Galad, and Durelin. CaptainOfDespair's 'lynch me and you'll see' posts are really stumping me. It is true that innocents have died and more will in these proceedings, but that doesn't me you should tell us to kill you, it just doesn't make sense. Gil-Galad voted for me yesterday saying that his reasons were stated by others. And now he is just confusing the heck out of me with his posts. Durelin: I voted for her yesterday because of my suspicion, and today she is also making strange statements and not really going anywhere with her posts.

Yet someone else has come into my spotlight. Nonnacedak. Two out of his three posts seem to have been aimed at saying he's innocent. To quote:

post #37

Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village!

post #135

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf. I must read over the post's more in depth to point some fingers and help my case.

He did vote 6th for Mith, an unpivotal spot in the voting, especially when many others had already voiced their probable votes for Mith. It wouldn't be a bad spot for a wolf to step in and vote. And the fact that he is making such a big about that 'proving his innocence' makes me even more suspicious of him.

So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

[Gurthang]

After just reading Gil-galad's and Boromir's posts, (I cross-posted with both) I am now a little more suspicious of both Gil and CaptainOfDespair. Gil-galad seems to be trying to push the noose over to Captain(which could be the right way to go). The quotes by Captain that Boromir provided also make him seem suspicious.

Those two have moved up some, but I'd like to hear what people think of Nonnacedak.

[Gil-Galad]

woah my dear fellow Gurthang, i said that to quote Homestarrunner...mainly for humour purposes...and it was yo uyourself that said my humour goes unappreciated

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must say, Boromir88, I like your reasonig towards CoD, quite simply because I was in Durelin's little list, but didn't feel the need to lash out like the cap'n. After all, did that dirty blood-drinker Mithalwen not give herself away by protesting rather too much?

If I have to do a suspicion list (I know I don't have to- I just want to! ) I would go for:
1/ CaptainOfDespair
2/ Gil-Galad
3/ Nonnacedak
Those three are in no particular order, though- they're simply the three people I most likely see myself voting for before nightfall.

[CaptainofDespair]

Oh what have we here...

I'm thrilled I was able to return, as my shrews needed little tending today.

Well, shall we believe the old Captain when he says he might be a gifted? But which one, or am I lying? What choices we are presented with....

Can we believe what anyone says at this point? No. If I am the Beorning (as I am not a wolf by any of your reckonings), how can you tell? You really can't. So, how can you trust Saucepan's ideas on how to tell the Beorning apart from others? How do you know he isn't the Beorning? You don't. It is unwise to trust him until he is proven innocent. Striking haplessly in the dark is not a prudent course, either. You have suspicions, but can you risk killing me, should I be one of the all important gifted villagers? You might need me to die for you, not become your pin cushion of spite. So, do you rely on personality quirks (these are my natural tendencies, mind you), or do you rely on actual findings? Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

So, go ahead and be witch-hunters, and burn me at the stake. But you all, like the Inquistion, will find nothing but the dead corpses of the innocent.

[Gurthang]

Gil-Galad: Point seen. (Although it was rather Out Of Context.) But just to make sure I understand, which statement are you talking about? The 'challenge' one, or something else?

If CaptainOfDespair is not the cobbler, than he is playing the role to a 'T'. He's really confusing me by hinting he's a gifted yet seeming to care little if we lynch him. I can't for the life of me understand why a normal, or even a gifted, villager would do that.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm, some interesting developments while I have been away.

I said that I would explain why I believe that CaptainofDespair may (note the emphasis on may) be the Black Beorning. And so that is what I shall do.

I do not believe him to be a Wolf. He started the ball rolling with a vote against Mithalwen after quite strong suspicions had been voiced against her. It was clear at that stage that others would probably follow suit. I do not believe that a Wolf would vote for another Wolf in those circumstances. Far too risky.

But this is the behaviour of a Black Beorning - to pick up on suggestions of guilt (in others than himself) and encourage them. Interestingly, earlier on Day 1 (post #36), he had picked up on the suspicions then being voiced against Gurthang and also made a random accusation against Durelin (perhaps to add her name into the mix). Next time he posted (post #49) was to vote against Mithalwen after Gurthang, Firefoot, SamwiseGamgee and wilwarin538 had all commented on her suspicious behaviour. Not the actions of a Wolf - but the Bear doesn’t mind who is lynched as long as it’s not him and his name is kept off people’s list of suspects. If Mithalwen turned out to be a Wolf (as she did), his first vote for her would stand to his credit. If not, that would be an innocent Villager down and he could distance himself from the outcome by pointing out the earlier suspicions voiced by others. He was quiet for the rest of the day.

As I said earlier, the Bear is likely to be throwing accusations about while trying not to look too conspicuous. He doesn’t mind who he accuses because he doesn’t care who gets lynched as long as it’s not him. CaptainofDespair started off today (at post #83) by voicing mild suspicion of no less than six Villagers - LMP, wilwa, Gurthang, Menel, Lalaith and Gil-Galad. Two of those (Gurthang and Menel) have not behaved remotely suspiciously in my view.

But what I find really interesting is the following:

Originally Posted by Durelin at #95

What's scary is that the bear could be anywhere. The bear could be CaptainofDespair, or SamwiseGamgee, or Meneltmarcil, or Boromir88...it could be anyone.

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #98

Me? A Bear? *gasps* What nonsense! I can assure you, on the honor of my shrews, that I am no such thing.

Durelin’s accusation was not a serious one. She was simply making the (valid) point that the Bear could be anyone. So why did CaptainofDespair feel the need to jump in and refute the suggestion quite so defiantly? (I see that Boromir88 has picked up on this too.)

I also said earlier that the Bear is likely to encourage any suggestion that another Villager might be the Bear. Which is exactly what CaptainofDespair did (#110) in response to arcticstorm’s suggestion that Laitaine might be the Bear. And although I still harbour suspicions that Laitaine may be a Wolf, she is no Bear. It is very unlikely that the Bear (who needs to stay alive more than any other Villager since otherwise he/she has lost) would risk killing the person he/she voted for the Day before. And only Laitaine voted for Alcarillo on Day 1.

So this was the state of the evidence when I made my suggestion that CaptainofDespair might be the Bear. I really was in a hurry, and so could not elaborate. But I was also interested to see what his reaction would be without such elaboration.

And what does CaptainofDespair do? He reacts quite strongly by calling the Village’s bluff, adding a vague implication that he might be a Gifted Villager:

Originally Posted by CaptainofDespair at #128

Go ahead. Lynch me.

You'll be sorry when my death is shown as a vain enterprise. Then, you'll have another night where two will die.

Then, just after SamwiseGamgee has voiced a mild suspicion of me, he picks this up and runs with it by voting for me (#139). What’s more, he accuses me of being the Black Beorning on the basis that I have been zealously seeking Wolves while providing “little in the way of tracking down the Beorning”. Well, excuse me, but (as Boromir88 has pointed out) I believe that I am one of the few Villagers who has made any effort to consider how we might identify the Black Beorning. In my view, his vote was simply a reaction to my having voiced suspicions against him, as his stated reasons for doing so do not stand up to scrutiny.

CaptainofDespair’s reaction to my suggestion that he may be the Bear has therefore simply served to strengthen my belief in his ursine nature.

And yet I hesitate to condemn him. He is the only Villager who has given me any basis for suspecting as the Bear. But I may very well be wrong. If we want to lynch the Bear, he seems the prime candidate. But the evidence is circumstantial and he may yet turn out to be innocent. I accuse him in good faith, but I am most reluctant to see the blood of an innocent on my hands. And that is why (for the time being) I only say that he may be the Bear.

More later, once I have had time to muse over the other matters discussed while I was away.

(I realise that this repeats some of the reasoning recently expressed by other Villagers, but I composed it before reading their posts. It is encouraging to see that others are thinking along the same lines.)

[Meneltarmacil]

Thou speakest well, good Saucepan Man. CaptainofDespair, thou art verily on my Suspecte Liste, tied for firste place with Gil-Galad. I shall not vote until later, though. I suggeste lynching either Captain or Gil toDaye, then having ye Seere dreame about ye other toNighte.

And if it is Captain we lynche, why not burne him at ye stake like he suggested?

And for ye recorde, here is Ye Olde Liste:

1. CaptainofDespair and Gil-Galad are tied
2. Lalaith
3. Durelin

If I had to put roles to each, I woulde say that Captain is ye Beare, Gil and Lalaith are ye Wolves, and Durelin is ye Cobbler. But, ye evidence regarding ye laste two is not as convincing thoughe.

[Encaitare]

I'm replying as I read the thread, so forgive me if the same points have been addressed by others.

One thing that bothers me is Mith suspicions about Lmp being the Seer. She said it twice that she's quite sure about it yet the remaining wolves didn't kill him during the night. Is Lmp one of the wolves?

LMP could be one of the wolves, since Mith tried to label him as the seer and therefore make us want to keep him alive. Looking back at Mith's posts, it's evident that she was playing pretty boldly, posting a lot but getting very indignant if she was accused. This might have been a trick she hoped would clear a fellow wolf (note might).

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

Let me just say I helped lynch a wolf (which was rather exciting I must admit) and I believe I was 6th or so in the voted for Mith therefore proving my innocence as not being a wolf.

Having helped lynch a werewolf is not necessarily proof of innocence, as SamwiseGamgee said. It's true that you did opt to vote for the wolf instead of Gurthang, who had the next highest number of votes, but even so -- voting for a wolf does not always mean innocence, and repeating how one has helped lynch a wolf is even worse (cite Eomer in WW7, if such references are permitted).

I looked over SpM's nice little chart of voting stats, and I think it's interesting how the wolves apparently did not try to divert suspicion onto Gurthang after it seemed that Mith was the primary target. If the wolves voted late, perhaps it was too late for them to do so, but it could have been possible when Mith had 6 votes (which was a plateau for some time) and many villagers had not yet voted. Nonnacedak brought Mith's vote count up to six; while she had six votes, these people voted for others:

Originally Posted by SpM

11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

If any in this group had been wolves, it would have made more sense to vote for Gurthang rather than those they chose instead, who had only one or two votes. Although the wolves could have decided to give up since Mith was likely to be lyched, it was still early enough to tip the scales.

I therefore am suspicious of Gil, because when Gurthang had 2 votes and Mith had 3, he voted for Gurthang to tie it, possibly hoping that others would bandwagon on Gurthang.

Originally Posted by LMP

Encaitare: Points at Gurthang for merely being in character.

Yes, LMP, I was agreeing with what you said -- remember that you were the one who brought it up. I thought Gurthang's words seemed a little suspicious at first, paired with the fact that he spoke up right away (seemed a little eager to me), but I am no longer suspicious of him.

Originally Posted by CoD

Alcarillo was killed by the bear, but why? Did I vote for Alcarillo? Did I mention him prior to his death in, significant fashion? No.

The Beorning kind of acts randomly, doesn't s/he? It doesn't matter much to him/her who dies -- that's the role. If anything, I'd think the Beorning would try to avoid killing those s/he had mentioned, to separate him/herself from the victim as much as possible.

I'll vote around midnight, I think. I'll be looking at the stars, I suppose. Sometimes they make me feel less lonely...