Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

The trouble is Mr Pan Man is that what is there to say so early in proceedings? Unless anyone has concrete evidence, our choice will be random, at best based on hunch or suspicion.

I agree that all we have at present is hunch and suspicion but we should use them to arrive at a conclusion which is at least sensible, even though it may turn out to be wrong.

Alas due to my well known posting schedule, I will perhaps not be able to speak enough or frequently to satisfy you ...

I would not necessarily regard someone who only makes a handful of contributuons as supicious. I am far more concerned with the content of what is said. If people cannot participate frequently, so be it. But they should at least make some attempt at sensible analysis when doing so. It is only in our foes' interests to make "content-lite" contributions. As an example of such, I would cite Durelin's first post. And that's not an accusation, you understand. I am merely using it for illustrative purposes at present.

A question though. If someone knows that they will not be able to vote later in the day, is it better, if they are innocent, for them to vote when they can or simply not to vote that day? I have my own thoughts, but would welcome the views of others.

And to add something further which I hope may contribute to the discussion, is it not the case that acting with obvious suspicion on the first day is most un-Werewolf like behaviour? It might be a double-bluff, but a very dangerous one on Day 1, when anything vaguely suspicious is picked up on. It may be Cobbler behaviour, but I would prefer to bag a Wolf or two or a Bear first before turning my attention to the Cobbler.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Perhaps you have misunderstood. Of course we want to go after these beasts, but the key word is "irrational," not turning this into a mob of poking fingers and a mass hysteria.

My objection was to your counselling against starting a wolf-hunt. I agree that we should approach this rationally. But a wolf-hunt is precisely what we are now engaged on.

(And let's not foget that Bear. Bagging him or her will reduce our exposure during the Night.)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Alcarillo

I too am a bit suspicious of Gurthang and his hasty vote ...

It was LMP who voted hastily for Gurthang, Alc. Methinks that you have been indulging rather too much in your own fine beer.

To clarify, which one is it that you are casting vague suspicion on?

I see that dancing spawn anticipated my question about voting early. My own view is that it depends how much has been said already. LMP's very early vote is supicious, but would a Wolf act that suspiciously on the first Day?

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

It was LMP who voted hastily for Gurthang, Alc. Methinks that you have been indulging rather too much in your own fine beer.

To clarify, which one is it that you are casting vague suspicion on?

I guess that's what happens when you read through a bit too quickly (while drinking). LMP is the more suspicious, to me, of the two, having voted so early and based on so little proof. Gurthang is less suspicious, but only because of his little "werewolves are peple, too!" comment, which was only in character. So my main suspicion is with LMP, although I won't be as quick as he to cast my vote. I'll wait too hear everybody.

[Mithalwen]

Well trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite. Also getting the cobbler would be a better result for the village than lynching an innocent. Remember the cobbler's aim is to help the wolves, is it not.....?

AS for the not voting thing ... well much as my instinct goes against casting a vote before all the evidence and opinions have been heard, my schedule means that my first chance real chance speak on weekdays is at 1pm BST ie noon GMT the moment when the day/night begins. I then have an hour and a few hours potentially after work. I will try to get in early enough to check before work but realistically there may not be enough time to make a good call. I could end up never voting if I took the more "ethical" stance of not voting early. That would be a dereliction of the duty to vote. Maybe I should have sat this one out but I didn't realise the timing implication and there really isn't anything I can do about it short of quitting my job. In the circumstances I think it better to vote early than not vote at all. It would be arrogant for me to think that I would be so influential that those around later would find my vote more persuasive than evidence that came to light after I voted, knowing my situation. With 20 living villagers quite a few vote will be needed surely to hang someone. If I make it to the later stages I will obviously rethink (and if I must set the alarm even earlier ...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Mithlawen

Also getting the cobbler would be a better result for the village than lynching an innocent.

Agreed, but our primary goal should be to lynch someone who can harm us. Failing that, the Cobbler would be better than an innocent Villager. However, I doubt that the Cobbler is likely to be acting too obviously suspicious from the off either.

I understand the suspicion being cast in LMP's direction. I myself am suspicious of him for his behaviour, although I have a nagging doubt that it was not the behaviour of a Wolf or Bear (or a Gifted, for that matter). But I am concerned about the degree of suspicion that Gurthang is attracting for what was only really an 'in character' comment. I don't know whether he is gulity or innocent, but I am loathe to condemn him on that alone.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Agreed, but our primary goal should be to lynch someone who can harm us.

Well that the wolves and bear are the primary source of danger is goes without saying but a cobbler who succeeds in getting innocents hanged is also a killer even if (s)he doesn't get his hands bloody himself/herself . A dead innocent is a dead innocent no matter how they meet their end. I wouldn't place so much distiction between the cobbler and the beasts. Confusion is a dangerous weapon and if the cobbler survives too long the fate of all will be in their hands.

All this does not help me much as the sands of time slip away. Soon I must go having heard - what half? the village speak. Do I vote for Gurthang who I suspect also for his promptness even if his ic words are disregarded and be accused of bandwagonning? Do I not vote (a cop out) or vote utterly at random and hope that enough people have enough information to make a wiser choice that will make mine a token vote.... aieeeeeee

We live in interesting times. I will see if an analysis of who has spoken and what helps ....

[mormegil]

I'm in favor of all voting if that's the discussion.

However in working out my latest chemistry equations it came to me like lightning, it did. I know who is guilty!

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong...you'll see one day I will turn this metal here into gold.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I'm in favor of all voting if that's the discussion.

However in working out my latest chemistry equations it came to me like lightning, it did. I know who is guilty!

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong...you'll see one day I will turn this metal here into gold.

Now that really is a random accusation ..... !!!! I have warned you about eating strong cheese late at night...... How can I defend myself against that? All I can say is that you have been saying the day when you produce gold will be dawning for years ...and it aint getting any lighter is it? Anyone with any sense knows you have to mine for gold... even dwarves know that ..... but no you think you can turn base metal into it without the effort of actually doing some hard work.

Also I might say it is a nice wolf trick to try and point the finger at someone who has announced she has to go imminently and cannot remain to defend herself. Trying to find an easy target to save yourself are you?

[Meneltarmacil]

Ah, 'tis too bad that our deare Oddwen hath been taken from us by these foule wolves. I have rolled my die of twenty sides and it hath landed on ye olde 12, ye number of Laitaine. However, trying ye random approache may not be needed here. It seems that ye olde baker, LMP hath indeede voted rather quickly. To me, it appeareth likely that thou art ye Cobbler, LMP, but keepe in minde that even ye Cobbler may not be ye type to be doing something that risky on ye firste Daye.

[Mithalwen]

Hmm well if LMP is the cobbler .... well how could he know what would help the wolves with only a few posts on the board? The cobbler isn't privy to any special information is he? He can only make his deductions like the rest of us. It occurs though that his behaviour might be good cover for a Seer. Make it look like a random accusation so you don't have to declare yourself and hope that people join the bandwagon? Just a theory.... I mean the seer is very vulnerable while the Bear live since the Ranger can't protect from the Beorning. I know that it would be flukey that the Seer would strike lucky straight off AND that the person would be foolish enough to behave so conveniently suspiciously (albeit partly IC) but flukes do happen...... The Seer has just over a 50% chance of having identified a significant villager .... and with only 4 (?) villagers left to speak at all, I haven't seen a better indication.

Hey I'm clutching at straws here. I have about 15 minutes to decide.....

[Firefoot]

I say Firefoot, Mithalwen and Articstorm are the wolves among us and this alchemist is never wrong

You're wrong. *Shrugs.*

Personally, I'm disinclined to believe that either LMP or Gurthan is guilty. I think our wolves are more likely to either be in the background somewhere or posting fairly frequently but not doing a lot of finger pointing or gathering much attention. Granted, that's just about everybody... but when the time comes to vote I will be looking at people who are posting but not saying much.

I haven't seen anything blaringly suspicious yet. Morm's random list is just that, random, but I'm not overly concerned. I'd like to hear from those who haven't posted yet, as well.

[Gurthang]

My, my, my. It seems I've earned a lot of suspicion because of my occupation. Many of you are pointing to my statement about wanting a peaceful end to this situation as being suspicious. I even heard a few comments about me supporting the wolves. I must say, I am rather offended about that.

When I said I would like a peaceful end, I did not really have much hope that that would be possible, and I said as much. And I am certainly not supporting their deed. It was wrong, and justice should be served, but I was also saying that during the course of justice, we must not act rashly.

I also notice that LMP has earned some suspicion because of his vote for me. I am not in suspicion of him. And seeing as he hinted that he will probably not post again, I can see the reason behind his early vote.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
Thee says that Werewolves are people too. To my mind, that only means that they pose ever t'greater danger to us.

Hmm. I hadn't thought of that.

I also want to point out that we have not heard from CaptainofDespair, Lalaith, Laitaine, Nonnacedak, Gil-Galad, or Wilwa yet. I agree that waiting until all have spoken is a good idea.

[Nonnacedak]

Ah the day had been great and full of large trout before I had heard of the death of poor Oddwen... I must confess that I will be looking over my shoulder much more often now when I wander off to the lake by my lonesome. After hearing the cases of almost everyone in the village I honestly dont know who is guilty or innocent. I am surrounded by liars and I am but a humble trout fisherman. Mormegil's accusations seem completely baseless. If it came down to it with the evidence I have at the present I would choose that animal loving freak named Gurthang! I must hear from the few villagers left who have thus far been silent to make a final decision. Us innocents must filter through the lies to save our poor village! I await the silent!