Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[mormegil]

I admit that this isnt' the great evidence but I was able to gleen something from DAY 1 and also using my instinct I think I can say that Holby is a wolf.

Post #46. Seems fairly certain that Eomer is innocent and yet begins attacking him almost immediately after and votes for him.

Post #53

I have an idea who might be the shirrifs but since they're not saying anything maybe I shouldn't

I realize that this could be taken to have two meanings. One coud be that she's a wolf and doesn't want to them to vocalize who they are or that's she innocent and thinks that it's best left to them to announce themselves.

In post #89 she either inadvertenly or intentionally misreads what Eomer said in post 31

post 31- warns against getting the idea of seeing people as wolves stuck in head. (isn't that the point)

What he meant to say is that we need to look at people closely and not narrow our minds to one person because he looks a bit suspicious which we did yesterday on poor Eomer. I believe this was an intentional misread.

She starts the day today being defensive of her vote.

But I think the most telling that I cannot give an exact post # on is her behavior seems very wolvish to me. She was the one the kept subtely redirecting us to Eomer. She let LMP (innocent) lead the charge but kept the heat on but in a less noticable manner. She gave a very decisive vote to clinch Eomer's death. She is acting very wolvish. Posting and saying things but staying out of the spotlight, directing us to Eomer in a subtle way, and going back and forth with Firefoot.

That brings me to another conclusion. Firefoot is possibly in cahoots with her. One example of them distancing themselves is in post #49. They vote differently also to distance themselves.

I'm less convinced of Firefoot's guilt but there is a possible link.

Other suspects are Saurreg, Gil-Galad
Lesser but still suspect: Lhuna, Oromin
Would want to hear from Nilp

[Holbytlass]

I admit that this isnt' the great evidence but I was able to gleen something from DAY 1 and also using my instinct I think I can say that Holby is a wolf.

Post #46. Seems fairly certain that Eomer is innocent and yet begins attacking him almost immediately after and votes for him.
Holby-Wrong, I'm fairly certain that's when I began to see Eomer as odd.

Post #53 I have an idea who might be the shirrifs but if they aren't saying anything maybe I shouldn't.

I realize that this could be taken to have two meanings. One coud be that she's a wolf and doesn't want to them to vocalize who they are or that's she innocent and thinks that it's best left to them to announce themselves.
Holby-If I was a wolf I wouldn't have said anything and waited till night to tell the other wolves.

In post #89 she either inadvertenly or intentionally misreads what Eomer said in post 31

What he meant to say is that we need to look at people closely and not narrow our minds to one person because he looks a bit suspicious which we did yesterday on poor Eomer. I believe this was an intentional misread.
Holby-It was unintentional, and it has happened before. Like when I thought LMP wanted the seers to say nothing at all.


She starts the day today being defensive of her vote.
Holby-Because LMP says of me (and others) "Defend yourselves if you can."

But I think the most telling that I cannot give an exact post # on is her behavior seems very wolvish to me. She was the one the kept subtely redirecting us to Eomer. She let LMP (innocent) lead the charge but kept the heat on but in a less noticable manner. She gave a very decisive vote to clinch Eomer's death. She is acting very wolvish. Posting and saying things but staying out of the spotlight, directing us to Eomer in a subtle way, and going back and forth with Firefoot.

Holby-I feel I was not subtle, I saw Eomer to be most suspicios and said so throughout even to voting for him. I did postpone as late as possible so he could clear things up. I didn't change my vote and bandwagon on Gil, I maintained, how is that wolvish?

I do like the plan except of course me being number 1 suspect.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I do like the plan except of course me being number 1 suspect.

Then offer us a list of your choosing.

[littlemanpoet]

Regarding Saurreg

Originally Posted by the guy

After voting for Eomer, he tells us he thought Eomer was a Shirriff! Why would an innocent vote for somebody he thought was a Shirriff?

Although I found Saurreg's post defending his vote against Eomer rather confusing, I was able to glean that he had thought that Eomer was either a werewolf or a shirriff.

So either Saurreg is a werewolf trying to be deviously misleading, or he honestly decided that the guy was right that Eomer wasn't a shirriff, and therefore must be a werewolf.

I honestly find the second of these two choices more likely.

The only damaging evidence is that he was the second to vote for Eomer

Regarding Holbytlass

After rereading all her posts, I see that the only real damaging evidence is that she was the last to vote for Eomer. Everything else looks like somebody stumbling through and making sense of things on the second or third try (not unlike Kath who was innocent).

Now, I really doubt that more than one werewolf voted for the same person (Eomer). It's possible that I'm wrong, but it would be unwise to bandwagon like that. The only reasoning against that would be a Feanorian double-bluff, figuring that since people would think it too stupid, then do it because the best place to hide is out in the open. Are our werewolves capable of that kind of thinking? It depends on how experienced and/or intelligent at least one of them is.

I've been leaning toward two rookies (gilly and Lhun) and one veteran (Holby) so far, but my theory could be as holey as a sieve.

An Alternative Theory of Werewolvishness

So what if we have a very experienced and excellently double bluffing trio of werewolves? Who would be hiding out in the open, which translates as playing an aggressive game that is well thought out in advance to redirect opinion away from themselves, and spread the voting out over as many villagers as possible in order to avoid suspicion brought on by the hardest evidence of all (i.e. voting record)? I know it can't be the guy, nor myself, being shirriffs. Who have been the smart, aggressive ones who have been the most influential, including mentioning each other as suspicious, maybe even planning cross-posts? Not saying that I believe this to be the case, but sure can't be overlooked. The people who have filled this category are: mormegil (voted for Gil-galad); Firefoot (also voted for Gil-galad); and Saurreg (voted for Eomer).

I didn't say that this working theory would lead to conclusive evidence, and it has not done so. If the theory held, morm and Firefoot would have voted for different people, and the werewolves would have tried to make sure an innocent got lynched; we're not sure if Gil is innocent.

I wanted to bring this up for us to think about carefully, because it would be a very werewolfish thing to be quick to bandwagon onto a very good plan so as to avoid suspicion. Note, morm and ff were the first two to approve of my plan. That does not mean I think they're werewolves. All of FF's posts point to her not being a werewolf (but she thought the same of me in another life). Of course, that M and F were quick to approve of my plan may show nothing more than that they are innocent loudmouths who are intelligent enough to see that it's a great idea and therefore approved it on its obvious merits.

Okay, I've had my say. I don't want us bandwagoning against three innocents. It would waste a Day and Night.