Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I'm quite certain he is neither a Seer nor a Shirriff - it would be stupid for the Seer to come out so early, and there is no seond Shirriff supporting Eomer. I find it much more likely that he'll be trying to work things out logically.

And pray tell, what logic are you referring to?

[Kath]

Lhun who has been pretty quiet herself immediately joins Morm and votes for Gil for whatever reason, we don't know.

I was a little concerned about that also but maybe it was due to the fact that she will not be back later and had little time to make a decision. It could be seen as bandwaggoning of course (I love that word!) but it could also just be that she agrees with Morm's ideas and saw no need to put them again.

The problem with that is that I don't understand mormegil's reasons on voting for Gil. He said it was due to the lack of substantial posting, but Gil never posts a huge amount so it is difficult to use this as a reason, especially seeing as how Oro has made even fewer posts with just as little in them. I realise he now can't answer for himself but I'm just wondering if this strikes anyone else as odd.

And Saurreg, I apologise for my meandering, rambling post, but I needed to get my thoughts written out so that when I try to work out what on earth I meant I have something to go back and refer to.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Saurreg.

You really threw me there. If you were joking then shame on you! For it quite hurt me to read that.

Let me explain the 'Lionel Hutz' comment. I was not comparing the two of you. I was not calling you a tricky lawyer. I merely insert Simpsons quotes in some of my posts. I used to do it all the time in Crazy Captions. I was quoting Sideshow Mel because he used the exact same tone of voice I demanded. It was as if I was standing up and saying forcefully I want to hear from Saurreg. Because I really did; you are clever and have much to offer.

And you really made me gasp by referring to our run-in in a previous game. Run-in? What on Earth? Because I accused you of being a werewolf? But that's part of the game! We are meant to get at each other viciously (just look at LMP in this game ). Saurreg; we did not have a run-in. Remember your Eomer-sig? I said that was brilliant in the best signatures thread. In the few posts you have made which I have been fortunate enough to read, I have gained much admiration for you.

Sorry for interrupting the game like that, but I really wanted to clear things up.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I can't believe how seriously some of you took my comment. Did the whole Royalty thing throw you?

By two innocents I meant me and someone else. I am quite content to keep this (likely) innocent quiet for now.

As to the wolves, I'm working on it! Let me re-read everything.

[Holbytlass]

My initial vote is for Eomer, but since it is not retractable I'm waiting for his evidence, which I hope is compelling.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, let's get some dialogue going Holby.

What exactly do you mean by 'his evidence'? Evidence that I'm innocent? Well, I have none. And neither does anyone else.

What do you want from me exactly?

[Saurreg]

I will be away for the rest of the night (local time) and therefore I must cast my vote now. I would have like to wait for TGWBS to reply to my query and perhaps see who he votes against. However RL beckons.

++Eomer of the Rohirrim

Had I more time, I would have waited and perhaps chose someone else depending on circumstances. However as of now I am most suspicious of him and the moltives behind his posts. I believe him to be a werewolf which is trying to confuse the village with a bold gambit.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

As to the wolves, I'm working on it! Let me re-read everything.

My mistake then, I thought this implied you had something therefore I am willing to hear what you had to say and not rashly vote for you.

[Firefoot]

Okay, so here's where I'm at after catching up on the stuff I missed overnight:

Eomer - is posting in a confusing manner. He tells us he has information, then does not share it. It seems to me that he is either the Seer, a Shirriff, or a Wolf - the only three who know the identity of any innocents. Or maybe he's the hunter, who doesn't actually know any other innocents, and he's trying to get killed (yeah, that's a shot in the dark). I'm not sure what to think, though - I want to hear something conclusive from him.

Gil - one brief post, holding non-pertinent information. Nothing to work with - he's either being himself or being a wolf, or being both.

Holby - is opposed to deliberately lynching innocents, probably a good sign. Not a lot else to work with, though.

Kath - I'm not really sure. She could, like Saurreg said, be a wolf testing the waters, or she could be innocent. She seems pretty clueless, though (no offense, Kath ) - I suppose I'm leaning innocent.

Lhuna - What she said makes sense, but she didn't really contribute anything new to the table. That could go either way - either she's a villager who hasn't been able to make much sense out of the posting so far, or she's a wolf not wanting to put her nose out too far. Her vote for Gil is interesting, but not really conclusive. There just isn't any substance to Gil's post, so barring any other suspects, a vote for him makes sense. Or she could be a bandwaggoning wolf. Unknown.

LMP - wants to lynch ungifted innocents. Even if I don't agree with his logic, I can mostly follow it. I do, however, find his response that not being able to deduce wolves from voting records is no matter - this doesn't make sense to me. Voting records are some of the best evidence we have, especially this early in the game.

Morm - expects people to live up to certain expectations - i.e. contributing something of substance every day. This could be a wolvish ploy to take the spotlights off himself, but I'm coming to think that's just the way Morm is. He has tended to make sense to me. At this point I can't tell if he is bluffing or innocent.

Nilp - No posts. Nothing to comment on.

Oromin - Two brief posts, nothing conclusive to comment on. Possibly a wolf trying to slip under the radar.

Sauregg - His analysis made sense to me. Could be a wolf but I doubt it.

TGWBS - I'm not really sure. He's very vocal. His plan would have been good but for the fact that a Ranger can't guard the same person twice - if he honestly didn't catch this, he is innocent. If he tried to get by with it, he's likely a wolf. But we can't prove that either way. He accused me of wanting to lynch innocents even though I specifically said I didn't, but that's no grounds for lynching.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

The problem with that is that I don't understand mormegil's reasons on voting for Gil. He said it was due to the lack of substantial posting, but Gil never posts a huge amount so it is difficult to use this as a reason, especially seeing as how Oro has made even fewer posts with just as little in them. I realise he now can't answer for himself but I'm just wondering if this strikes anyone else as odd.

Even though Kath has gone I would like to answer her queries and doubts here. True that Oromin's posts were short, however, there was minimal substance and also they were game related. In contrast Gil's post was a single post and had absolutely nothing to do with the game. He since posted a couple more times pouting and yelling about this and that. Finally today something vaguely substantial came from him. I don't expect greatness but some participation from those who wanted to play. Why else should somebody sign up if they can't play?

[the guy who be short]

Firstly, I would like to say to our Seers:

If we are about to lynch you, TELL US WHO YOU ARE AND TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW! If you don't know anybody guilty, just choose somebody for the rest of the village to vote for. The wolves will kill you during the Night, but at least we won't be lynching you ourselves.

Originally Posted by G-G

That could be a ploy to defend yourselves...how do we know your not the werewolves trying to protect yourselves from the villagers? very mysterious TGWBS...

For two wolves to declare themselves would be the stupidest thing they could do. If one of them got voted for, the other would also die. The risk would be too great. However, as I've said, we're coming out for reasons we don't want to disclose yet. If you can't work it out, don't worry about it.

[Saurreg]

TGWBS has made a valid point. Consider this; if two other players suddenly jump up and claim they are the real sherriffs, then it would be a 50-50 standoff. It would be most logical to assume that the other six villagers would vote for at least one of the four and if he is really a sherriff then the opposing pair is doomed. If he is a wolf, than he is already dead and his partner is doomed. In either case two wolves would perish.

Very clever TGWBS - I am now more inclined to belief you. With two sherriffs and two seers, we have the odds in our favour.

Nevertheless I still await your explanation for that post.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

In any case Eomer was innocent and that my guess that TGWBS was his sherriff partner proved false. However that does not take away the fact that eomer was indeed posting very oddly that round and I would like to hear more from TGWBS himself before I pass judgement.

I sort of made a logical leap that Eomer would presume the innocent was me due to my plan, and I was right. Even if that weren't the case, I know Eomer is very clever, so I simply presumed he would try to apply logic to the situation.

I'll be back to analyse yesterDay's voting and last Night's death later.

EDIt: By the way, I knew he wasn't a Shirriff because I'm a Shirriff. I knew he wasn't the Seer because a Seer would not be so obvious about saying they knew an innocent. Realistically, this only left the possibility that he would be using his noodle to work things out.

[littlemanpoet]

Lovin' it!

Yes, guy and I are the shirriffs. I can understand any lingering doubts.

By the way, as I have revealed myself as shirriff, my "bum" disguise is of no value anymore, and I shall communicate with all of you as one of the king's men.

Okay. Yes, it would be stupid for two werewolves to claim to be shirriffs and have a 50-50 duel. You guys would of course pick one of us and lynch one of the four, and instantly would be revealed both shirriffs and two of the three werewolves - who by the way will not have their number increased since we have two seers. Awesome! yee ha!

The added benefit, when logic overcomes suspicion, is that you guys now know that you don't have to fear double bluffing from either guy or me. That's an additional advantage.

Guy and I have signed our death warrants, as far as the werewolves are concerned. The longer we're alive, the longer they have known innocents who the rest of the villagers no they can trust intuitively.

:talking to ghosts: Eomer, most sorry about your death. But I think that your passing may be deemed a sacrifice, because yesterday's votes may have been more revealing than the werewolves intended.

A couple theories:

Lhunardawen piggybacked on morm so quick it made our heads spin. Also, she posted to the main thread during the NIGHT phase - a rookie werewolf type of mistake (I should know).

Holbytlass went to such great extents to defend her vote that she must have something furry to hide.

Gilly posted during the NIGHT phase also - same situation as with Lhun.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I sort of made a logical leap that Eomer would presume the innocent was me due to my plan, and I was right. Even if that weren't the case, I know Eomer is very clever, so I simply presumed he would try to apply logic to the situation.

Contradict yourself here. Eomer's posts only brought about more suspicion against himself and ultimately his doom. If that was the use of intelligence and logic, it is very poor practice indeed. I cannot tell why you would think that ploy of his as smart.

1. It was a gamble, not a risk.
2. The contents of his post incredible
3. He chose to be mysterous and thus suspicious to all

The only reason why I think you are such a rabid supporter is because he vouched for your innocence and hence you feel obliged to clear his name.

As mentioned in my post, I wanted to wait for you to clear that enigmatic post of yours but you came in too late for reasons I do not know of. And as I have posted in my analysis, Eomer was the most perculiar and his strategy most bizzare. This led me to believe very strongly that he could be a werewolf throwing in a big gambit. A make or break move I should say. RL pressed and I had to vote and hence as the biggest suspect (bigger than LMP was time flowed), I had no choice but to vote for him based on deduction. And in anycase I was the second to vote for him and I believe my reason for doing is so is far better than LMP's. If the rest of the people did not agree with the points as posted above, they would not have followed suit either.

EDIT: If my post wasn't clear last night, then it could be because it is late and Im' tired and when i'm tired my understanding and ability to communicate in English diminishes... Kinda like that misleading post in my first game.