Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Saucepan Man]

I am glad that not all the Villagers' minds are as closed as Kuru's.

Originally Posted by Fordim

Oh dear…why do I think that I may be one of the names on Saucy’s secret list…?

Not necessarily, my dear Fordim. Clearly, you were the one who first identified the 3 Villager "shortlist". But it would not necessarily have been in the Werewolves' best interests to identify it so publicly and obviously.

I am interested in your theory, Fordim, as I have been troubled by the "quiet ones" too. I am pretty sure that at least one of them is a Werewolf, but my theory tends to suggest two loudmouths and one quiet one.

Interesting that you mention Oddwen's vote for Holbytlass. I said yesterday that I believed that one Werewolf had voted for another at least once, when it would have seemed safe to do so. That would certainly fit the bill. Indeed the only other vote that also fitted the bill was Firefoot's vote for you on the first day, and that was clearly not it.

I will review yesterday's events with your theory in mind.

[Holbytlass]

I thought this was an equal-opportunity village, Fordim!
I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf, but how does Oddwen voting for me make me a wolf? She was suspicious of my defensiveness when I (with others) were threatened with tied-lynchings just because we're not as loud as others. The Phantom had just been lynched and I'm sure some votes were cast because of his rantings that some perceived as a cornered animal. He turned out to be innocent.
I still think you are innocent and I still think this new theory is a good one (even if I am one of your main suspects) because it does remind all of us that the quiet ones need to be thought of as well. I know flattery will get me nowhere, I do mean it genuinely. But that doesn't mean there is not a 'loudmouth' he-wolf out there.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
I hardly need point out that he has been wrong every single time in this game.

So have you, actually ...

No. We do not know this because not enough people have been willing to put my theory to the test. We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

[The Saucepan Man]

Given the gravity of the situation, I think that we should all concentrate less on defending ourselves and more in putting forward or developing theories. If we don't find a Werewolf today, we have but one more day to do so and we will then have to find another each day or the village is doomed.

We all know that everyone's words and actions can, in most cases, be interpreted either way. So, unless there is something said about you that you feel is particularly wrong or unfair, try not to waste too much effort in defence. After all, it didn't help the phantom (in fact it might possibly have counted against him) and I, for one, will understand if people do not respond every time that their name is mentioned as a possible suspect.

Names will be named today. It's inevitable. Some of those named will be innocent. So try not to take it too badly if your name is put forward. Accept it as a necessity of the game, and let's (those of us who are innocent) try to work together for once to solve this mystery. The clues must be there by now, so let's find them.

I have work to do now, but I hope to put forward some more ideas later.

[The Only Real Estel]

I have also been wondering as of late if we've been paying to much attention to the SpMs, SoNs, phantoms, Fordims, Estels, Kurus, & morms of the village an not enough to those that seem to be avoiding suspicion almost entirely.

Originally posted by me in an edit, reposting to make sure it is seen:

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY. I'm beginning to wonder if there isn't something to Kuru's 'marching orders' comment. I know phantom has drawn attention to himself this round, but I don't think he's drawn enough to change an opinion that hopefully was made with some conviction. If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

There's a good chance that phantom is guilty, but if he is innocent & we've let a wolf off the hook (or noose, however you like) again then we've got a major problem on our hands.

It helps that we know the cursed villager has not been converted yet, so we're still only dealing with three werewolves. But we've still got a big problem.

Originally posted by Holbytlass:

Now I explain my vote...I believed Phantom's theory on SaucepanMan and Estel. I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched. And now his death proved his innocence.

This is interesting. Please let me know which part of phantom's theory you think he supported well enough that it could be possible. The theory didn't work because he used a lot of partial quotes & early defenses - I would protect anyone from being accussed early on because of a 'throw-away' joke anyday, & anywhere. Also, a lot of the things that phantom used would have implicated him also...if you looked at the full quotes. Just read his theory & my response again.

I believed Phantom's innocence also, actually posting a defense of him (that I thought was strong enough to save him); or at least I believed him to the point that I wanted to have another day or so to review his case again. And note that he suspected I would vote for someone other than SpM when it came down to it - I did not.

I am still very suspicious of SpM. Unfortunately, he knows how to speech innocent speech, whether he is or not, so it is very difficult to decide for sure.

Also, is there something to SoN's parting theory of Fordim & SpM?

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game. I'm afraid it's only a wild hunch at this point, though.

As he said, it's is only a 'wild hunch,' and just because he was innocent doesn't make his theories invincible by any means, but a few things that happened did draw my attention towards the pair.

First, I thought that if they were working together, SpM would probably eventually back off & applaud Fordim for trying, but reiterate that there were to many holes to try it (so he wouldn't really be switching stances). Fordim would than back of his plan & the two would become allies again. This has pretty much happened (though I will readily admit that it might be by innocent intentions), but I was also a little bit suprised by SpM's reasoning for laying off of Fordy.

In post #51 SpM said:

I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

And then in post #124 SpM says:

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him.

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Again, this may be all a bunch of nothing, but I found it strange, & it won't get out of my head...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour. Both Werewolves and innocents will have said and done different things at different times. But we at least know what the Werewolves' objective is, and we should be able to look at the sum total of all has happened so far and identify patterns that are indiciative of Werewolf behaviour. That's what I mean when I talk about putting forward and developing theories.

In this regard, I will make one point that may be trite, but is nevertheless worth bearing in mind. The Werewolves will have been concentrating on getting those innocents who are most likely to be suspected lynched during the day and killing those who are the greatest threat to them at night (for example those who are unlikely to be lynched or who are getting close to the truth). In most cases, they will have been doing so subtly (which is why Fordim's theory has appeal), but there are probably times when they will have been doing this more overtly, when they felt it safe to do so. We should be able to spot these kinds of patterns by now, so let's try.

As I said, I have not got much time to spend reviewing previous events and devleoping theories right now, but I will be concentrating on doing so later.

[mormegil]

Just to consolidate and help in our thought I would like to include these lists. They are who voted for and were sucessful in lynching our 3 innocents

Evisse
Shelob
SpM
Kuru
the phantom
TORE


SoN
SpM
Firefoot
the phantom
holbytlass
Fordim
TORE


The phantom
Azaelia
Mormegil
Fordim
Firefoot
Shelob
SpM

Obviously nothing concrete can be gleaned from this but I think we can find at least one wolf who has voted for these two or more times.

That would point to:
Shelob
SpM
TORE
Fordim

Again it might not mean anything because the phantom and Firefoot would qualify as well, but it may be helpful therefore I set it forward.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The one thing I would take from your very good list morm is that it does seem to indicate that Shelob is more likely to be innocent than Holby and Oddwen insofar as it is in a wolf's best interest not to vote for an innocent who gets lynched, if that means you will come under suspicion (which, so far in this game, it has). That is, the best way to hide is to vote for the 'runner-up' or some other person who looks like a credible candidate for lynching, but who is never actually lynched.

Which is why I find the voting pattern for Holby and Oddwen so interesting...for each of them, two of the three people they've voted for are still alive: they've both voted for SpM, who is still to many minds the most suspect; as for their other votes, they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against Azaeilia (by Holby) or Holby (by Oddwen).

For the record, Azaeilia and Shelob both voted for TP: could one of them be a wolf, spreading her own vote to someone else to avoid too clear a pattern? Or to subtly force a tie or direct the vote the way they wanted it to go....?

[The Saucepan Man]

Thank you for those lists, mormegil.

However, by themselves, they do not tell us much (and that's not just because I appear on all three ). We need also to look at what time people voted and, most importantly, what the state of voting was when they voted. And that applies to all votes, not just those cast for known innocents. It will be instructive, for example, if someone who appears on two of your lists voted for someone else on the remaining day, but at a stage when it was pretty clear anyway that the eventual lynch victim would be lynched anyway.

What we need to do is consider, when we are looking at a vote or an accusation or a defence of another Villager is whether, given what we know now, that was something that a Werewolf would have done.

I also think that we need to bear in mind that, on Night 3, Firefoot guarded someone whom she thought might be innocent and that, having done so, she had a reasonable idea (although not a certainty) throughout Day 3 that this person was innocent.

I am sorry if what I am saying appears to be obvious, but I really think that the six remaining Villagers all need to be thinking very much along the same lines today.

I set out my theory at the beginning of today and indicated that I was pretty sure about the identity of two of the Werewolves. They remain my prime suspects (and you probably have a pretty good idea who they are from what I said). But I am willing to consider other theories and be persuaded and to review my ideas in light of my own further investigations. I hope that everyone else is prepared to do the same. It was a mistake yesterday that we did not do this. We really need to bag a Wolf today if we can, and I think that we can. So, if I see any evidence of closed-mindedness during the first half of today, I shall get very suspicious. And I hope that means that the Werewolves will have to work that little bit harder in trying to disguise themelves.

And Kuru, if you are innocent, I would implore you to keep an open mind and look back through the evidence keeping in mind what we know now. You may still decide to vote for me at the end of the day. But I would prefer that you did so having at least explored other possibilities.

[Oddwen]

Gee, here I thought I was being rather straitforward this time. You people should meet me if you think I'm quiet here.

they've spread them around in meaningless vote-casting against... Holby (by Oddwen).

I don't think votes are meaningless. If they don't result in their intended purpose, they at least tell something about the voter. This one isn't meaningless - I still don't like the thrashing around that happened when someone mentioned Holby's name, though she has tamed down a bit. Perhaps it's a defence strategy.

Firefoot knew one person who was innocent, perhaps we should look into that. Who did she suspect on day two and would have guarded on night three?

In post #127 she said she leaned towards the innocence of
Fordim
Morm
SpM

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?

I have to leave for work now, I'll post more tonight.

Edit: cross-posted with SpM

[mormegil]

One thing that has been stirring in my finite little mind is Holbytlass's vote for Azaelia. I know she gave a defense for it but something doesn't sit right with me. I will post an edit when I find those quotes.


Post 66

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.
My approach has been this, there are two who have said nothing Oddwen and Azaleia. And so, by the peril of numbers again, 3 out of 5 flips of a coin.....

++azaleia
I'm sure I'll be on someone's short list.

Her defense
post 126

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM. I DID get all bothered about being called a wolf on the basis of my being silent. It WAS hipocritical of me. I admit I took the easy (and cowardly) way out of yesterday's vote. I didn't hide that fact, I said it was a coin-flip.
I suppose my trying to be diplomatic has brought suspicion on me. I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Could be true but I think it is worth remembering.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Odwen

She was most vocal about SpM, so would this have been the way she chose?

Well, whoever she chose to guard is innocent because she protected them from the Werewolves' fangs. But, much as I would like to say it was me, I don't think that it was. I was, at that time, not likely to be attacked by the Werewolves because I was a prime lynching suspect for the next day. Firefoot would have figured that out and so probably protected someone else.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another without removing a name from the list of "soon to be lynched" -- it was clear that though I was (and still am) garnering some no small amount of suspicion, the next to go was going to be either TP or SpM, with an outside chance of it being Kuru.

I'm not sure what this can tell us, however. If you believe it then I suppose that would be nice for me since it would demonstrate my innocence for all to see without my neck getting stretched.

But then again, I'm probably entirely wrong....

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Nuts! I knew it...at one time...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fordim, I just about choked on my tea when I read that post of yours. I was screaming out loud "He's got it, BY GOD HE'S GOT IT!!!!"

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Fordim, I just about choked on my tea when I read that post of yours. I was screaming out loud "He's got it, BY GOD HE'S GOT IT!!!!"

No need to rub it in. I wish I could blame the other loudmouths for their steadfast refusal to believe in my theory... *glowers*

Or in their incessant desire to see me as some kind of mastermind wolf who could not be wholly trusted... *glowers*

But in the end, I can only blame myself for not having stuck to my conclusions when I just knew they were right.

DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN DARN

As this game has utterly drained me I shan't even be able to think about playing again for a good while...but I will...and when I do, there isn't anyone who is going to shake me from my decisions!!

Stupid Fordim. Stupid! No donut for you!

[The Only Real Estel]

As this game has utterly drained me I shan't even be able to think about playing again for a good while...but I will...and when I do, there isn't anyone who is going to shake me from my decisions!!

I won't be able to play for at least a game, either. My parents were getting irritated at the time commitment & I think it would be suicidal to try to do it back-to-back.

p.s. Fordim, when you got on me about the stretches of time that I was silent I was like "SEE! See Mom! I have to get on NOW! I TOLD you this would happen!!!"

[The Only Real Estel]

Nuts indeed. I had given some thought to Oddwen, of course, but I thought it would be either Kuru or Fordim. Nicely done, Oddwen. Imagine, three wolves all in the same camp?

p.s. Blast, Fordim. If you would've brought up that theory again (I had forgotten about it) I would have gone with you on it & we could've orchestrated the greatest comeback in village history! Oh well.