Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by TORE

Was I not clear enough? I meant as much compelling evidence as you have about your innocene, not your guilt.

I'll save that for tomorrow, if you don't mind, if I make it that far ...

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

[The Only Real Estel]

And, if I do, I shall be looking closely at you, Estel, given that you have turned up as one of the last to vote for two days running now.

Quite. And I will explain that tommorrow as well.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So it was decided. Suspicions of the contractor had been high since the initial murder of the philosopher. After the loss of the Seer and the brutal slaying of the Bard, the accusations had been red-hot. The village had decided: Son of Numenor must die.

Fools he muttered, as he was led to the platform. He had a damp, resigned look about him. He had expected to be killed for some hours now, but the actual deed - mere seconds away - seemed like a horrible anticlimax: a pathetic way to end his productive life.

Fools? Ha! We think not, you beast! yelled the villagers. They were utterly convinced they had bagged a wolf, and the sense of purpose and drive was almost tangible: it was as if the village had been lifted from the careful deliberations of the day, and the clear majority which they had reached.

Sono offered no more words. He let the hangman slip the noose around his neck. The lever was pulled, and he fell and his neck was broken.

Silence.....the villagers crowded round to get a closer look.

He's.....smiling! shouted one in disbelief.

And it was true. Son of Numenor had ended his life amid ruthless and brutal accusations: he was glad to be rid of this village which he had served so well, and which had rewarded him thus.

The villagers stood watching him for a long time. And then some began to cry....


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 8


NIGHT 3 has started, now it is 3:20 PM GMT (that's 10:20 AM EST) and (9:20 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours' time, or sooner if all night-time business is received by me before then.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers woke early again, and the weather fit the mood. It was just so grey. Everyone looked most unhappy.

But when they gathered together outside the Town Hall, they recalled a faint glimmer of the hope they had early yesterday; because no-one was missing.

Hark! this day promised oddities, for the Werewolves had killed nobody last night.

Here was a puzzle...


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2

Score: - (after considering the advice of a previous moderator in great detail)

Werewolves: 3 (?)
Villagers: 8 (?)


DAY 3 has begun, now that it is 3PM GMT (that's 10AM EST) and (9AM Central). It will end in 24 hours time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.

[Kuruharan]

Hmmmm…ominous this is. Either our guardian guarded or our cursed villager defected. Thankfully we still have something to go on.

I assume that I hardly need say anything. However, just in case the point has yet to be driven home…

I assume everyone noted who took the lead in the “Let’s hang Son of Numenor” charge. (I swear, it is almost like he’s got hooks through everyone’s jaws). Also how after I pointed out the role he actually had in Evisse’s death, he ran away from that issue like it was a leper.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zounds! A puzzle indeed.

My guess is that the Guardian was successful last night. Then again, this is simply based upon my growing belief that I am the Cursed Villager, so unintentionally effective have I been in furthering the Werewolves' plans. After all, I bear the responsibility for having pushed the village towards hanging two complete innocents, one of whom was our poor Seer.

I would suggest that you all go ahead and vote for me now, only that would be to kill another innocent Villager (for that is what I am). Mind you, if I am the Cursed Villager, you might be doing yourselves a favour even then.

I am not going to offer up any thoughts, theories or opinions, not for now anyway, as all I have said to date seems to have led the village towards ruin.

So, if you don't mind, I shall offer up my sincere apologies and go and spend what may very well prove to be my last day with a nice comforting barrel of Saucepan's Best Bitter.

[mormegil]

Interesting!

After my normal night of study, prayer and meditation I took a bit longer to meditate on our current plight and have done some research about the happenings yesterday that I would enjoy sharing. It's a bit long so for that I apologize but ask that you read in and glean knowledge from it.

Here is the list of who voted for whom. (In order)

Azaleia voted for the phantom
Kuruharan voted for The Saucepan Man
Mormegil voted for the phantom
The Saucepan Man voted for Son of Numenor
Shelob voted for The Saucepan Man
Oddwen voted for Holbytlass
Firefoot voted for Son of Numenor
The phantom voted for Son of Numenor
Holbytlass voted for Son of Numenor
Fordim voted for Son of Numenor
The Only Real Estel voted for Son of Numenor
Son of Numenor voted for the phantom

Totals:
Son of Numenor: 6
The phantom: 3
The Saucepan Man: 2
Holbytlass: 1


The Six who voted a known innocent:
The Saucepan Man
Firefoot
The phantom
Holbytlass
Fordim
The Only Real Estel

Reasons for voting for an innocent.

SpM:

post 147

And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone. But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN

So essentially his behavior was odd and to make himself look innocent by killing somebody who was suggested was in league with him. Although I don’t find that suggestion being strong or rather well accepted. However to your credit SpM you at least stuck you your beliefs and didn’t lynch somebody because it was to save you, as other did.

Firefoot:


post 152

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

Weak evidence at best and truly echoes SpM even though she defends herself from this in the next paragraph. Yet she doesn’t vote for two people with suspicion cast on them and voted for an innocent because he hasn’t spoken much. It seems that there is a subtle defense of both SpM and the phantom here, yet enough distance to not look overly suspicious.

The Phantom:

post 153

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

WHAT!!! Did I read that correctly? Well I should vote for SpM but since he accuses me then doesn’t vote for me I’ll do the same for him. This coming from the man who repeatedly threatens that anyone who accuses him he will take down. The first 3 votes for Son of Numenor came from 3 people that are “suspicious” of each other and yet won’t vote for each other while naming them in their explanation. This is very, very suspicious to me and we may have a wolfish trio here. But the phantom reasoning is pathetic and laughable.

It just seems that they are teaming up yet trying to give a defense to themselves so when it was found out that SoN was innocent they could claim that they aren’t working together.

Moving on

Holbytlass

post 158

I was going to vote when there was a 3 way tie. Then Oddwen voted for me. Therefore I held off my vote in case I had to save myself.
I will vote for ++Son of Numenor for two reseans(sp?). Obviously now, even if Fordim and Estel vote for me I'm saved from the tied- double lynching. The other (and this is for when I originally was going to vote) I do think that Phantom and Saucepan Man are highly suspicios. Although at this point there smarts are needed. I am scared they are wolves using their wit against the rest of innocents.

So self-preservation was a factor. And thinking that we are keeping smart people because she's afraid that the werewolves are able to use their wit against us. It seems that if they are suspicious, which you admit, then maybe you ought to have looked a bit closer at them. My opinion of Holbytlass is that she is somewhat suspicious and could be the quiet wolf that attempts to fly under that radar while she supports the others who are more vocal. That support could be either voting with or not voting for her comrades. That said I feel she is the least suspicious on the list of six.

Fordim

Sorry but I feel I must quote almost his entire post—please read.
post 160

As to my vote, I am stuck. I would love to vote for Kuru on the thinking that he is either, a) a wolf or b) a villager who is helping the wolves inadvertently with his rather confusing and confounding posts. Unfortunately, a single for him at this point is unlikely to get him lynched – the only way that would happen would be if virtually every who is still to vote followed my lead. If he turned out to be an innocent, then this would make me look very very bad. As much as I would like to play this game selflessly, it is clear that I need to take more care for my own skin than that. So for the time, I think, Kuru is safe.

My next choice after Kuru is The Phantom for precisely the same reasons: he is either a wolf, or a villager who is helping the wolves hide with his own flurry of distracting speculations and self-congratulatory “conclusions” about people. The other thing that speaks greatly in favour of voting for TP is that it will break the current three-way tie between himself, Sauce and SoN – the last thing I want is a wholesale slaughter!

Hmmmmm…things are happening fast. Since I typed that last paragraph, The Phantom has gone on to vote for SoN, apparently to save his own neck. Seems fair to me…

The votes at this moment so far as I can tell are:

Phantom 2
Holbytlass 1
Sauce 2
SoN 3

So what do I do? I’m tempted to vote for the Phantom anyway and tie it up again, putting pressure on the remaining voters…

Boy, but the squeeze is being put on me!! If I vote for someone now and they end up getting lynched and they’re innocent, I’ll definitely be considered a wolf. If I tie it up, and there are wolves yet to vote, then they will be able to decide whom to lynch…the safest course for me, personally, is to cast a “meaningless” vote for Kuru who, like I said at the beginning of this bizarrely stream-of-consciousness post, is my first choice…

Just read Holbytlass’s latest post (158) and note that it is down to herself, me and Estel to decide this thing…and Saucy in 159 reminding me of SoN.

All right! That tears it…I need to vote for somebody and I don’t want the weight of being the last to vote. As it would appear as though SoN is the “leader” and as it would appear as though he is trying the rather wolfish strategy of waiting to the last minute to cast his vote (as I would appear to be doing as well, I realize) I am going to vote for

++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

That having been said, if SoN is innocent, I am going to go after SaucepanMan and The Phantom with everything I’ve got in the next day, since they have lead the charge against SoN today…

So let’s get this straight. You want to vote for Kuru but don’t because he probably won’t get lynched. So are you that bloodthirsty that you only vote those you think will be lynched? By your own admission you don’t vote for Kuru because it’s what is safest for you to do.

If I may rant for a moment. We need to stop that attitude and be a bit more selfless. If one is truly innocent than the goal should be to eliminate the wolves not save yourself.

So you suggest the phantom but end up not voting for him from what I inferred being a fear to cause a tie and letting other voters decide who to kill. Apparently you wanted your vote to really count.

Immediately after you vote for SoN you say

Quote ++ Son of Numenor

Even though I have no reason to think that he is a wolf. In fact, I tend to think that he is probably innocent, but this just seems a safer vote to me than one that might allow a late-voting wolf to make a tie and thus wipe out more than one villager. So I am deeply sorry Sono, but this seems to me the best course of action for the villagers…

However the one that could possibly be tied up at the end is the phantom who you yourself suspected and said that you didn’t suspect SoN. If it were me on the chopping block I would choose to have a tie and let the wolf come with me than me die alone. It seems like an exchange that I would be willing to take part in an innocent for a wolf.

If Firefoot’s not a wolf I’m suspecting that Fordim may be the third in the trio.


TORE:

post 163

Well, since SoN is clearly the one to be hung at this point & he is near the top of my suspect list I see no need to hold my vote longer.

I vote for ++ Son of Numenor

TORE seems to take sadistic pleasure out of being the last vote. Like Fordim he wants to make his vote count. As I don’t’ understand this philosophy of only voting those who are likely to die, there is great suspicion on you but not as much as the other four.

Now it’s entirely possible that not all three wolves voted for SoN but the only one I truly suspect out of the remaining would be Shelob who voted for SpM. Shelob could be guilty and SpM innocent or both could be guilty. Least likely both are innocent. The only other one with a possibility is Oddwen who voted for Holbytlass a seemingly random vote but unlike some of our others she wasn’t afraid to vote for somebody that may not be lynched.

Sorry this is so long and if I come across as expressing myself with vehemence it is only because I feel strongly that those who vote for an innocent who have less guilty evidence than others need to answer why. If this has earned me the odium of all, that is lamentable but I will not go lightly on those who act irresponsibly against somebody because they simply didn’t have a lot of time.

[Shelob]

"my attempts to summarise what you have said"
"If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry"
~Saucepan Man

Given you're explanation I accept your appologies, I just wish you were more exact in your summarization...We can't afford to assume anything and poor summarization can only assist the werewolves...from poor summarization we'll draw inaccurate conclusions and end up lynching more of our own...

As to this mystery with which we've been presented...My bet is that the guardian pulled through to save a villager. My reasoning behind this being that the guardian would be able to look at everyone's reactions and judge who would be the best person for the werewolves to kill, just from what would be most strategic ...the Werewolves however would have no clues as to whom the cursed villager is...This isn't guaranteed, it just seems to me that it's more likely for the Guardian to have guessed the werewolves kill than for the werewolves to have guessed the cursed...

I would prefer to hear from others before giving much more thought to this, so I shall leave it now and return once more have spoken.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

There are only three people who voted for both Sono and Evisse:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

Evisse and Sono (two of three proven innocents) voted for:

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom

The third proven innocent, The Guy Who Be Short voted, I acknowledge, for me. And, yes, I voted for Sono but as I explained at the time I was afraid that if I did not put the nail in Sono's coffin, a wolf could come along and force a tie and we'd end up lynching more than one innocent. And I would point out that TP and SpM had both voted for Sono before I, which is what caused the potential two or even three-way tie crisis, and that TORE waited until the last 15 minutes to vote after me.

If my obvious suspicions are correct, then I may have prevented TORE from tying things yesterday. And yes, I concede that this might all be part of some grand, Byzantine and hopelessly convoluted plot by the werewolves, with me one of them, to keep me in the clear. And my conceding that might be a double bluff, and my conceding of the double bluff is a tactic to throw everyone off. What can I say? I will let the votes and people's actions speak for themselves.

I would point out, though, that the wolves' first victim was clearly selected to make me look guilty. So either I'm an incredibly stupid wolf who just loves dancing on the edge of destruction by calling attention to myself, or I'm an outspoken -- maybe even pugilistic -- innocent.


I suggest we pick one of either,

The Only Real Estel
The Phantom
The Saucepan Man

for hanging.

Oh, and I agree with Saucy, who is probably in a much better position to know than I, that we now have four Wolves to worry about...

[mormegil]

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

Fair enough.

I suppose the final reason is that given the nature of the game, I never feel like I can know or believe anything for certain. When I voted for Sono I did believe that he was probably innocent and that Kuru was probably guilty -- but in either case I could be wrong.

I believe in risk management: when I assess a choice like this I try to make it in terms that take into account the best possible scenario (catching a wolf) and the worst possible scenario (creating a tie and letting a wolf kill two or even three innocents).

When I cast my vote there were, to my mind, three possible wolves available: Kuru, TP and SPM. My vote had no way of catching Kuru as no-one had voted for him. (And this has been noted by me so that I am becoming less suspicious -- if I'm the only one who has my eye on him, I should perhaps look elsewhere). TP and SpM each had votes for them, but I doubt that both are werewolves given that they have been going at each other: too risky with such a close vote. So I could only choose one and hope I was right, but that would have set up a tie for a future wolf to make -- so sure, I might have picked a wolf and another wolf (or even a misguided innocent) could have come along and made a tie and a wolf might have died taking one or even two innocents with him. So the best possible scenario, in that case, was that I had a slim chance of catching a wolf, with a better than slim chance of killing more than one innocent.

The worst possible scenario was just more attractive. By casting my vote the way I did, I knew that I would probably not be getting a wolf (but then, I could have been wrong, and Sono could have been guilty), but the pay off was that I could guarantee, right then and there, that there would be no tie and no further loss of innocents.

So it was brutal, cold and perhaps unattractive logic that drove me -- it may even have been faulty -- but to answer your question: I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.