Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Shelob]

"A separate time a separate place
The glass reflects a single race
Fighting for self preservation
Each a single dying nation"
~Caladre (aka. me!)



"There is another suggestion. Perhaps we should lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Shelob, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, and I. There's bound to be a werewolf or two in the bunch. " ~The Phantom

Phantom...how good are you with numbers?

The score is currently werewolves 3 villagers 9...if you lynch Fordim, Saucy, Morm, Kuru, Firefoot, TORE, yourself and I (8 people) and you either get no werewovles or only 1 then the score will be

Werewolves 3 Villagers 1 (if no werewolves in that group)

or

Werewolves 2 Villagers 2 (if only 1 werewolf)

in either case Werewovles win...and if you don't mean that this would be an uber-double-lynching (which is rather how I read it esp. given "I think it would be delightful to purposefully tie the vote at one a piece and lynch all our evasive/low-key types in one fell swoop. Probably at least one is a wolf.") then so long as the werewolves don't kill anyone on that list they're fine 'cause we'll only lynch people from the list...

...actually...isn't that idea rather too close to the "short-list" plan suggested yesterday for comfort?


As to grouping me with "the quiet group" I do appologise for that...Yesterday I knew I had SAT testing in the morning but thought I would have the afternoon free..then my parents sprang "family time" on me so I got dragged shopping and had to watch a movie (they thought it would 'de-stress' me...instead it 'distressed' me)...as for to day I thought I would only be gone a few hours in the afternoon for a graduation party (not mine...so don't congratulate me) but what my parents failed to tell me was that it took up half the day...again my sorrows from this point onward I should be a more active voice in our discussions.

Finally, as to whom I know are under suspicion, and whom I myself suspect, I think that the argument against Kuru has some merit...however given that he says
"Go ahead and lynch me and find out!"
I rather suspect he's telling the truth...at this point in the game it would be very risky for a werewolf to risk being voluntarily hung...the odds are still bad enough that the werewovles as a whole don't really gain much by sacrificing one of their own...

I can't agree or disagree with the arguments saying something to the effect of "The Phantom has been acting uncharacteristically therefore he's a werewolf"...I don't know what's 'characteristic' for the Phantom...however he has been seeming to try and keep up the levels of confusion...and, as I described above, his "Lynch them all" plan, unless you know you've got more than one werewolf, will fail miserable...if he's a werewolf all he had to do was choose suspicous people and make sure that he was the only werewolf...probably an easy task at this point--given all the suspicions flying around...

As to Saucepan Man and Mormegil, they both seem to be rather focused on one person without forgetting to give thought to everyone...not on it's own particularly suspicous behavour and so while I don't remove them from lists I've not yet seen enough to convince me either way...

For Fordim I stated what I thought earlier in the day and have yet seen nothing to really warrant chaning my thoughts...he's still suspicous and deserves watching, but I don't feel a pressing need to see him hung.

Firefoot I've yet to create an opinion on...but, today at least, all Firefoot's suggestions are in terms of potential werewolf stragegy rather than reasons for thinking Person A or Person B to be suspicious, which could be suspicious had Firefoot not stated an opinion with mormegil and against the Phantom...hmm, incase you misread that I'm not trying to say "Firefoot is against the Phantom therefore Firefoot is not a werewolf" I'm just saying that the before described behavour would have been more suspicious if Firefoot had never stated an opinion...

As to everyone else (myself included for the fairness of those not-me reading this: ie. You all) I feel that basing suspicion solely on the fact that we've not spoken isn't really fair...I explained myself above and suspect that everyone else has similar reasons...I know Oddwen mentioned an inability to get to a computer today, and I saw elsewhere that Azaelia mentioned SATs in reference to yesterday (but since I saw her on today [and subsequently advised her to go to invisible] I wonder why we've yet to hear from her)...So everyone on this list I'm willing to give a chance to explain their absense before truely judging...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The Quibble: a picture is hung upon the wall, a person is hanged by the neck until dead.

The Plea: Shelob and Firefoot are quite correct, I think, in agitating for more discussion of developing a strategy rather than assessing blame. I've tried it...are there any other ideas about how we can co-ordinate our actions to put the wolves at anything like a disadvantage?

A thought has occurred to me: perhaps we could focus more on making arguments about whom we think is innocent rather than guilty? That will prevent the finger-pointing and defensiveness. For my part, I am almost certain that Firefoot is innocent, insofar as she voted for me yesterday: seeing as I am attracting so much attention, I am one of the Werewolves' best friends at the moment: the last thing they wanted is to have me dead (that would have made their gambit of killing tgwbs rather pointless). I also lean toward Mormegil and Oddwen as being innocent, insofar as they voted for The Phantom using logic very much like that which led me to vote for Saucy. (Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt for either TP or SpM, both of whom have gone a long way to allaying my suspicions of them this day.)

Anyone else out there think there are villagers they can trust?

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

(Please note, this is not a backhand way of suggesting guilt

But I think it is a backway to group people. However, for the good of the village, I will say who I think is innocent. First and foremost ME, I think you may be innocent Fordim, at least I think your intentions are. That doesn't mean I think who are opposed to you are wolves, just misguided.

So you see, the danger in this plea, for myself, I now have put myself in Fordim's 'group' therefore I must be a wolf. And had I said 'nea' to this recent idea of pulling together against wolves, then I must be a wolf.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have reviewed the proceedings to date and what has it told me? Not a lot I am sad to say. The Werewolves are doing a good job at merging in.

But I have gleaned a few possible insights (and I put them no higher than that).

The first may come as a surprise, but I am now pretty much convinced of Fordim’s innocence. The reason being that, since his proposals have not found favour with the majority and given that they are no longer capable of being implemented, I would have expected him (if a Werewolf) to come up with a story to distance himself from them, such as making out that they were merely a ploy to flush out the Werewolves. Yet he continues to defend them. He is already a prime suspect for lynching, and continuing to defend his ideas merely increases that risk. So I believe that he genuinely believes that they would have been of benefit to the village. I differ from him on that, but that in itself is no reason to hold them against him. Secondly, I don’t (on reflection) go with the “double bluff” theory concerning TGWBS’s murder. If Fordim is a Werewolf, TGWBS’s death clearly puts him in the frame. Yes, a Fordim Werewolf might have bargained for the likelihood that it seems too obvious a “frame up”, but that would still carry a risk for him (ie that it would be seen as a “double bluff”). Wouldn’t it be more sensible for the Werewolves to frame Fordim, on the basis that he is already a lynching suspect and then point out the “double bluff” theory? And even if Fordim is not lynched, there are enough other non-Werewolf lynching suspects (myself, for example) to give them ample opportunity to try to ensure that one of their own is not taken. Framing Fordim carries no real risks for the Werewolves. It might get him lynched, but no matter if it does not. Whereas a Werewolf Fordim relying on TGWBS's death being seen as too obvious a frame-up is putting himself at quite considerable risk.

So, who pointed out the “double bluff” theory, thus implicating Fordim? Well, I did (and I have since reconsidered), but the first to do so were Kuru and Shelob.

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations. These are the suspects who I consider may be Werewolves attempting to “fly under the radar”.

The first is Kuru. He pretty much followed the “under the radar” strategy on Day 1, but ended up edging me towards Evisse and voting for her himself. He has been more vocal in his accusations today, but all that he has really done is attempt to direct the voting towards Fordim and me, both prime lynching suspects for today. Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said) I now strongly suspect Fordim to be. To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

The second is Shelob. On the first day, she gave quite strong support to Fordim’s “Seer dream” proposal, and then ended up voting for Evisse (an innocent) on the basis of my reasoning that those supporting that proposal were to be suspected! There was no transition whatsoever between the two contrasting positions. Other than that, the only accusation that she has made has been directed at Fordim. And, in her last statement, she vaguely supports Kuru.

The third is Holbytlass. She offered no strong opinions yesterday, and ended up voting for Azaelia on the “flip of a coin“. The only evidence against Azaelia is that she has not contributed much. Not nearly sufficient evidence to warrant a vote, in my view. And, having yesterday voted for Azaelia on the basis that she has been quiet, Holbytlass today said, quite angrily:

I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything.

Anyone notice an inconsistency there?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

The phantom has been behaving uncharacteristically erratically and has accused mormegil on the basis of no evidence (other than the fact that morm voted for him). He has also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect. That makes him a suspicious character. But my feeling is that this is the behaviour of a someone who knows that he is a Werewolf target and doesn't want to appear too incisive at this stage so as to avoid being killed during the night. And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

Mormegil I have no basis upon which to accuse. He has done nothing to arouse my suspicions, while nevertheless being quite forthright in his opinions (ie not "flying under the radar"). And I am reasonably convinced of Firefoot’s innocence, largely because her thoughts seem to be going in the same direction as mine.

That leaves Azaelia and Oddwen, who I have no handle on (unsurprisingly, given that they have been pretty silent throughout). What can I say? One or both of them might be Werewolves, but I have no real basis for accusing them.

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

[Kuruharan]

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations.

That is because you are my primary suspect. We should only lynch one per day. Why cause distraction by naming other names?

Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said)

Odd. So do I!

To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

Yes, accusing someone who is innocent is perfect werewolf strategy! You have got that part down.

The phantom has...also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect.

Funny. I think this is why he may be in the clear (maybe).

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

You are going to be feeling soooo silly if you get me lynched. I'm beginning to suspect that your buddies have already written you off as lost after today and have told you to try and get rid of me anyway as they stay in cover (or at least try to).

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

It is a virtual certainty that I am going to vote against the Saucepan Man, but I'm going to wait just a little bit to see if anything else interesting turns up.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

Oh. Thank you for clearing that up. I see now what you mean. Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all, I feel the need to not only re-explain my absence (to make sure everyone caught it), but also defend myself. Some suspicions have been cast in the direction of those who have been inactive so I must say that I am sorry that I was not able to post sooner, but I did give notice on the village message board (werewolf 1) that I wouldn’t be able to post much if any today.
Now, for the defending I think I need to do.

Originally posted by Firefoot:

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

Although Firefoot partially bases her suspicion of SoN on his seemingly evidence-less accusation of me, she does go on to say that she at least somewhat suspects Shelob & I. But I must correct you. At first I was for part of Fordim’s plan (as were almost all of the villagers), but I changed my standing once I noticed the stupendous errors of my reasoning (look back at my comments on this matter in the past to see more about this). So to say that I voted for Evisse and did not oppose Fordim’s plan is not right. What is right is that I voted for Evisse, which I will now explain. My gut feeling was most certainly not Evisse, I was going to vote for the phantom, but allowed my head to talk me out of it until it was to late & I found myself forced to vote for Evisse because the vote count was 4 for Evisse and 3 for phantom. Obviously that problem with this vote count is that any werewolf could swoop in at the last second & lynch two villagers – this I obviously could not be responsible for letting happen. After waiting to see if I could catch a wolf trying to tie the vote, I then cast my vote at the last possible second for Evisse. Unfortunately, she turned out to be the very thing that we had spent most of our debate time arguing about how to protect (the seer, or course!). Fortunately, my vote was not the deciding factor, so I didn’t feel as badly for her as I would have if I would’ve broken a tie between the phantom & her. Four to three would’ve gotten her hung just as badly if I had not voted at all.

Both originally posted by SpM:

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

A good observation, but you have left out one possibility. Put simply it is this: Since I was sure of neither phantom’s guilt, nor Evisse’s, I was trying to make sure that two innocent villagers did not get lynched at the same time. Using this logic (which was my motivation for what I did), if phantom turns out to be guilty, that doesn’t at all mean that I am guilty as well.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM ... I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Well, I didn't see your comments on Fordim before I posted. I must admit that they alleviate my suspicions of you somewhat.

But I remain very suspicious of those who seem reluctant to make their thoughts on who might be the Werewolves known. And you and Shelob most certainly fall into that category. Shelob really does concern me, though, with a number of posts which, despite their length, do little do advance our search for the Werwolves.

But Kuru seems determined to weedle his way to the top of my suspect list at the moment. Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add), but methinks he doth protest his innocence rather too much ...

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you) and then, today, posted and then did not post again for a while? That's all it seems to consist of as far as I can see.

[Shelob]

"It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by-> " ~Phantom

I saw the smiley...but it didn't register in my mind until the above comment...see what I mean about missing those signs?

Saucepan Man...this will be somewhat rushed as I am tired and need to go to sleep as I have school tomorrow, but if you want a list not of my reasons for suspicion but for a straight forward list which says whether I think a person to be a "Werewolf", an "Innocent", an "Unsure", or a mix I'll give you one...it's got very brief explanations (if any) because it's well past 11...but if it will reassure you regardless...

Azaelia of Willowbottom--"Unsure"
Firefoot--"Innocent", only one who hasn't really been pulled into anyone's theories...open to change.
Fordim Hedgethistle--"Unsure", leaning towards "Innocent"
Holbytlass--"Unsure", leaning towards "Werewolf"
Kuruharan--leaning towards "Werewolf", too suspicous to be an 'unsure', not suspicious enough to be a full "werewolf"
mormegil--"Unsure", with potential to lean towards 'werewolf'
Oddwen--"Unsure", as with Azaelia
Shelob--"Innocent"
Son of Numenor--Keep forgetting he's playing...umm..."Unsure" due to lack of real thought...
The Only Real Estel--leaning towards "Werewolf", closer to 'unsure' than the others in this position.
the phantom--leaning towards "Werewolf", in much the same boat as Kuru...for slightly different reasons
The Saucepan Man--leaning towards "Werewolf", kinda like with Kuru and Phantom...

Is this flexible? Yes. Does it explain my habit of listing thoughts and not names? No, but that comes from my nature of secondguessing everything I think, and of a strong dislike of announcing my opinions to the world. Will I vote now based on this? No. It's too late and since I know I'll be back again in the morning I would rather wait (ie: sleep) and see what others had to say before casting my vote...with luck we'll hear from those whom have not spoken much, or at all...

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all: I know this is long, but please bear with it.

Now for a bit of question-raising. Although I appreciate SpM's seeming defense of me I still have to bring something up. Originally I was hung up with how I should be voting if Fordim's side was right or how I should vote if Saucepan's side is right. I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out - Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves. First I will give the condensed version of my reasoning for Sauce/phantom/SoN. I'm going to try to explain how I think they could've worked together so far/how they might in the future.

First the three wolves spotted some pretty major flaws in Fordim's plan (remember we are considering Fordim innocent for the time being) and decided that they could easily use those problems to paint him as the bad guy - they also saw that if they could draw the villagers away from Fordim's plan, there was a fairly good chance that they could catch the seer hanging around in defense of it (let's face it, protection would be attractive to a seer and this plan does offer some protection, it just came at to great a risk for me to implement with a clear conscience). Even if any villagers that the wolves tried to convince us to lynch/killed themselves were not the seer, the wolves could still end up with several innocents hung, so it would be a win-win situation well worth any risks for the trio.

First, they all acted for the plan, then Sauce & tp pulled out after 'just spotting' flaws in the plan (hoping to paint themselves as protectors of the innocent villagers?). SoM stayed behind so that they could paint a trio of wolves (Fordim, SoM, & the seer (they hoped)). When only three remained, SpM suggested this:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty

Now this does not seem like very sound logic. Were Fordim a wolf, I doubt that he would have let all three wolves be tied together so easily, & I'm not entirely sure that SpM was really sold into his own logic, I doubt that he really thought that Fordim would be so irrational. Thise could simply have been a ploy to get a great mind (Fordim) lynched along with the seer (they hoped), while they killed others during the night - and getting both Fordim and the seer would only cost them a max of one wolf. And it might be possible that after hanging two innocents (both Fordim & Evisse), they might've tried to proclaim their strategy a dud & get out of it without having to hang one of their one at all.

Anyway, when there were just three wolves left, SpM suggested that Fordim, Evisse, & SoN were most likely the werewolves, but he suggested we start the lynching with Evisse because of her 'hedging'. Now, it did seem like Evisse was being cryptic, but now we know why. Perhaps SpM reasoned that she was more likely to be the seer than Fordim was, so he proposed to start with her (he obviously wouldn't want to start with his teammate SoN). Either way, he would win, knowing that Evisse was no wolf & guessing that perhaps she was the seer.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes? SpM & tp were, however, forced to vote alike to make sure that tp did not get lynched (& decrease their numbers). Later, SpM reminded us to make sure there was no tie in the vote, innocent enough, unless he wanted to make sure that one of his counterparts didn't get lynched with Evisse. It seems likely that he was hoping for one more vote for Evisse & not two more votes for Phantom. Unfortunatley, I fell for this because I wanted to make sure that two innocents did not get hung (as I mentioned in my defense above)). Now, I also mentioned that I waited until the last second possible to vote, hoping to catch a wolf, which I never did. It is plausible, I think, that one fo teh reason why a wolf did not try to swoop in to tie the vote (a prime opportunity, though perhaps a bit risky) was because one of their own was near the noose. At any rate, SpM, tp, & SoN had already voted before this, possibly because the knew they didn't want to hold their hand & tie it at the end - they didn't want their partner gone with who they hoped was the seer.

Also:
Originally posted by Estel:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

Originally posted by SpM:

I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

I was originally suspicious of phantom's turn-around, but let my own reasoning (above) convince me not to vote for him (which took out my prime suspect, causing me to vote late when it appeared obvious who I had to vote for). SpM verified what I said heartily. Now, I know that what I posted about the phantom is most likely true, so Saucey could've been innocently agreeing with them, or he could have seen a way of using the words of an innocent merchant to protect his partner in cold-blooded murder.

Given the evidence that I have listed above (& I do apologize for it being a bit long & a bit wandering at times), I am thinking we should follow through on the theory by lynching The Saucepan Man (though I am not yet voting), who is also under suspicion from several other sources.

If Sauce is innocent, I expect people to look at me, but I do believe that he has some hand in the evil doing about, unless I can be convinced otherwise. If Sauce is a wolf, we can then lynch SoN, & finally the phantom. Should I not live until the next day, I will say that I suspect Fordim almost as much as I suspect phantom. Therefore, if the first two lynchings are successful, but phantom is innocent, I propose we go after Fordim.

[Kuruharan]

Well, I may as well start the fireworks off here because I'm already in about the worst position and it is not going to do me any harm. I've already said about as much as can be said but to sum it up...

I make a convenient target for manipulation by the werewolves because of my role in Evisse's death. However, I've already shown that I was hardly the vocal originator of suspicion against her.

Ever since the start of this DAY The Saucepan Man (who was the vocal originator of suspicion against Evisse) has been gunning for me. You will notice that initially this DAY I was vocal in my suspicions of Fordim rather than him. I know I'm innocent, the only reason I can think of why Saucepan would be gunning for me so hard is that he is a werewolf and thinks I'm the easiest target for lynching. Firefoot also has been making inconspicuous motions in my direction (actually mentioning me as being suspicious in post 105 right before Saucepan took up the chorus in post 106).

Either way, lynch me or lynch him, I think it is probably a win-win situation for the village. Lynch me and you'll see that I've been telling the truth and the werewolves will have exposed themselves. Lynch him and I'm pretty certain the village will be down a werewolf with at least one solid suspect to follow.

If I am wrong and he is just an incredibly misguided villager, I'm more than happy to take the fall for it...but I don't think I'm wrong.

Anyway, I'm going to bed and have every intention of sleeping in tomorrow morning so I may not see how this plays out. If I get lynched or eaten remember what I've said.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN