Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

I would like to voice my current great suspicions. They are the phantom and Son of Numenor

If I may quote the phantom

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

This is from his post not supporting the seer protection idea yet his first post was in support.

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it.

Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty.

So phantom how is it that you are able to contemptously ask us if nobody else noticed the flaws in the system when they had already been pointed out (albeit with less verbosity) and also when initially you supported the idea while thiiking the shortlist was the bad one?

And I suspect SoN based on his simple acceptance of the plan with no explination merely stating that let's do whether or not it's logical.