Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Isle of Werewolves)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Staring contest? Yeah... that sounds about right. Actually, I had an RL engagement that couldn't be avoided. If anyone cares, I won best in show.

I'm really bothered now that the phantom is gone. I thought for sure that Mithalwen was a shoo-in. Now, my overly-tired mind is saying to agree with whatever our fair lady says, and then screaming "Wait! She must have done it!" But since I'm so exhausted, I don't even know any more.

But, I'm having a thought here. I'll explain it in the morning, maybe (I will if I can scrounge up any free time). In the mean time, ++Bilbo Baggins. Sorry Bilbo, I'll explain after I log some beauty sleep.

[The Barrow-Wight]

Just so everyone knows, this game is still operating on the original timeframe. That means there is no minimum time (a majority = lynching) but there is a maximum (24 hrs, which = 6PM tomorrow). I'm not saying this to speed you up or slow you down. I just want to be clear that nothing has changed for this game.

[Kuruharan]

I had to ask myself something. And following along with my vow to toss logic out the window I’m going to try to make this as stretchy as possible.

Query: What is the best thing for a werewolf to do during the day?

Answer: Head for the tall grass.

Query: But isn’t this an excessively obvious defense, almost to the point of being unusable?

Answer: Probably.

Query: What would be the best way to shield oneself from suspicion on this count?

Answer: Popping in occasionally to put in an appearance and conversely reduce one’s profile.

Query: Do we have anyone around here who answers to that description?

Answer: Actually, we have two.

Now, the question becomes, which of the two to choose. To put the question another way, which one becomes more obvious by being less obvious?

Oddwen has been most conspicuous with her absence. However, her fingering Firefoot so early in the business seems to point away from her. I can’t think of a sensible reason why one werewolf would deliberately accuse a fellow werewolf…of course, not all the actions that have taken place here have been entirely sensible .

Like the above posters, this directs me back to the person of bilbo_baggins, about whom some suspicions were expressed in previous days. As I specifically noted back in post # 197…

bilbo_baggins made a fair amount of fuss and bother on DAY ONE and has gone suspicious quiet ever since. (Almost as if he took a hint from something.)

His activities seem to have taken the pattern of: stirring about, then a sharp reduction in activities, followed by a reemergence that was just enough to cause him to sink back into mental obscurity. He has given the appearance of bland cooperative non-committal throughout. As a matter of fact, since DAY ONE I can’t find that he’s said anything about anybody. He's just been around off and on. His accusations always seem to be hovering just over the horizon, always awaiting one further development...

Notice, back in post # 74, Primrose Bolger (about whom I feel a little guilty) said…

'Twas bilbo_baggins who came up with that reasoning. To throw us off the track, I think.

They'll be yammering away from the first, those shadowspawn will. Though, I'm thinking they'll let the innocent raise the alarm, then they'll stick their wolfish noses in . . . and all the while laughing at us, and licking their lips at the prospect of taking another down.

It's bilbo_baggins who bears watching in my mind.

However, I'm not feeling particularly hasty. I'm going to go sleep on it and see what council the morning light brings.

[Mithalwen]

Well this is a turn up.....and has me bewildered. No offence but I suspect you all. Even Oddwen who I suspected least is suspicious because of that.

Lets not be hasty.

Obviously a major question, at least for me is why did the Phantom die and not me? Actually I can see that is a question for the rest of you too, bar one, but the options are different.

Either Phantom was much closer to the truth than I - and after my big mistake over Primrose which I regret deeply (though I don't know I could have made a better choice on the evidence) was so off the pace to be more use than threat. Sadly I fear I might be too useful a tool for the wolf - someone who has gained a rep then lost her touch. Or we were equally dangerous but Phantom got the nod. While I was waiting to see what baroque death had taken me (as I thought) I even suspected the phantom. His approach was similar to mine which made me assume him innocent - but would I have played differently if were a werewolf? I don't know, and I realise that my continued, unlikely survival may cause suspicion to be cast on me. I know I am innocent but the only way to prove it is to find the true culprit. Time to review and decide later today.

[Mithalwen]

I suggest a discussion thread - all these arrangements for the next game are a bit of a distraction for htose of us still trying to play this one

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Staring contest? Yeah... that sounds about right. Actually, I had an RL engagement that couldn't be avoided. If anyone cares, I won best in show.

I'm really bothered now that the phantom is gone. I thought for sure that Mithalwen was a shoo-in. Now, my overly-tired mind is saying to agree with whatever our fair lady says, and then screaming "Wait! She must have done it!" But since I'm so exhausted, I don't even know any more.

But, I'm having a thought here. I'll explain it in the morning, maybe (I will if I can scrounge up any free time). In the mean time, ++Bilbo Baggins. Sorry Bilbo, I'll explain after I log some beauty sleep.

Okay, remember when I said that ^ ? I was almost asleep. But now I'm awake (mostly...) and my thought still seems pretty decent, even though it's really cold and heartless.

Oddwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
bilbo_baggins
Kuruharan
Mithalwen

These are these people still alive. I know that I'm innocent, and I'm pretty sure that Mithalwen is innocent. That means that whoever I pick, I have a 1:3 chance of being right about. Since I'm really suspicious of bilbo right now, that just meant that he fit nicely into that little one slot.

And just think... if we kill bilbo and I'm wrong, then tonight the werewolf will kill another innocent. That narrows the list of Alive down to three people. If I'm still alive, and Mith is still alive, that pretty much means I'll know who the werewolf is.

Mind you, this whole cold and heartless thought process works... but it would complicate it a lot if Mith turns out to be the baddie. Or if, you know, I die. Or Mith dies. I've got some loopholes to work out. But yeah, anyways... I got over my passionate pleas for let's not kill the innocent. No matter what, someone will die, so we may as well narrow it down. As long as the villagers win, there'll be a big party to celebrate the fact that not everyone died. And I like parties.

[bilbo_baggins]

I must say that I am sorry that my connection times have been strange, as my computer is failing miserably. I must say that if you want to kill me, please do. I might even vote for myself, to prove my innocence. But senseless killing lost us Primrose. I may remind you that you don't want the same thing to happen again.

And good faith with good faith, Fea? It seems that those who suffer, suffer all the more...

I must say that even if it gets me killed with a phantom vote for myself, I can't decide who is werewolf. There are too many possibilities in this end-game as it were.

I will not renunciate on my first opinions as those are usually right in most people's cases... So two of you are still innocent in my opinion. But I must say that the last werewolf is duecedly clever.

I don't think I will be able to vote before the time has been reached, and I might die then, so I must ++Mithalwen for seeming friendly yet not actually presenting evidence for opinions.

May my death show you I meant no harm.

bilbo_baggins

[Mithalwen]

Well thank you very much - the only time I was not explicit in my reasoning was when I had no time to explain why I opted for Firefoot and it would have implicated the person I thought to be a seer. However I am not vengeful and it is extremely inlikely that you will be my choice though I am yet to review. It looks as if mine will be a lone vote ... but AS ALWAYS I will explain...

[Mithalwen]

Well Bilbo, I am sorry you have voted for me because I think you are innocent but I also think you have effectively signed your own death warrant. Your accusation of me is ludicrous - I was pivotal in deciding both righteous executions - maybe alas in the wrongful one. I wish I had time to post more at lunchtime else I might have saved both our skins..... however you did not care to look at my reasoning.

I genuinely never expected to be making this vote and so once the truth about Primrose was announced, I thought over things and came to a conclusion I did not want to see. I had been seduced by the idea that one of the werewolves would be keeping a low profile. I realised for all my minor suspicions, the final werewolf might have been very vocal. As I said I suspected the phantom, but the Phantom is dead.

So why the

Phantom not me? We both more or less published a rank order of suspicion. Bilbo and Oddwen had little reason to get me out of the way. In these late stages the voting will get random and the Phantom had been more suspected than me.

If Kuruharan were the werewolf, I am sure he would have killed me, he was next in order.
He said something early on about the simplest explanation was the best... at last I agree. This is the instinct I had last night and now I feel events support it. I think when we debated between Fea and Firefoot we debated in effect which werewold to hang first. When we were right about Firefoot, Fea managed to deflect suspicion. Look back, she has jumped on bandwagons with Primrose and Bilbo and Phantom had her second on his list and is now dead.

I think that it was also maybe a quid pro quo for allowing friendship to influence the choice between her and Firefoot. She is so clever.... if you look she has managed to sympathize and support me while also suggesting I am not above suspicion. But I think our werewolves were so enthusiastic about their role they got a little carried away at first - Fea managed to turn it around, but I still think on reflection, that the most likely explanation is that she is a werewolf. As Phantom pointed out Mormegil did not clear her - I think he wanted to bag Firefoot while deflecting Fea's attention.

Of course I may be quite wrong and if so I am sorry - I am not absolutely certain but it is what my head and heart tell me. To pick one of the others would be completely random. If one of them is guilty then I salute you for playing a blinder..... but I will vote with conscience not ease. Reread..... see what the dead have thought....

Phantom - I think you lost your life for mine, and I think this is how you would have voted too ++Feanor of the Peredhil

[bilbo_baggins]

Mith, I must say you have convinced me. I don't know how to go about voting for someone. Thank you for believing in my innocence. So --Mithalwen and wait for my new vote.

I am so confused in this disturbing finale. I just hope that someone wins.

bilbo

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Oh my... dear Mithalwen, please say you'll listen to my defense. Of course you will... you are far more of a fair judge than I am. Please let me try to change your mind.

Look back, she has jumped on bandwagons with Primrose and Bilbo and Phantom had her second on his list and is now dead.

I did no such thing. If you'll remember, I commented that I suspected bilbo in one of my very first posts. And even though that entire post is cloaked in a teasing nature, I did say quite early on about bilbo that:

I think you might have done it.

With Primrose, I've had a weird feeling all along, even though it turned out to be wrong. But quoting her, she said:

It's bilbo_baggins who bears watching in my mind.

in post #74. Since I was obviously wrong, I'm feeling more likely to listen to her instincts than my own. My accusal of bilbo, although cold, is not entirely random, as even the other night, glancing over my list of players and thoughts about them, I scratched a small black "W" by his name.

Look back, she has jumped on bandwagons with Primrose and Bilbo and Phantom had her second on his list and is now dead.

My suspicions of Primrose were not unfounded, but were obviously hasty. I couldn't understand why somebody innocent would not be more vocal. I had my trinity of bad guy personas fixed in my head (the out-spoken, the average, the sneak) and she fit the sneak so well, seeing as how she was so unsuspicous. It seemed to me that someone that over-looked could only be guilty. It's like the criminal who then proceeds to be really really good for awhile to avert suspicion, or the sinner who then tries to make up for it with a lot of good deeds. I'm sorry that I was wrong, but I try to listen to my instincts... in real life, they're great. I'm sorry they aren't so wonderful when I can't read your faces.

Look back, she has jumped on bandwagons with Primrose and Bilbo and Phantom had her second on his list and is now dead.

And why would I kill the phantom? I only just started to believe him again. I pointed out all the evidence I thought pointed to him in as organized a manner as I could, but after a large amount of dissuasion on his part I changed my mind. Although he still suspected me, and I suspected him, I finally did ascertain (to myself as well as you) that I believed him innocent. After all that, I'm not about to go off and kill him. He was just starting to believe me.

And really, the only bandwagon I offically jumped onto was this one:

I'm still not so sure of Firefoot's guilt, but if the majority thinks her a werewolf, I may have to jump onto the bandwagon. After all, I've been wrong before.

If one of them is guilty then I salute you for playing a blinder.....

I'm not sure what a blinder is (presumably someone or something that intentionally messes with how people see things?), but I will gracefully accept that salute.

I stand by my vote for bilbo... I can only hope you change your mind, Mith.

Fea