WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Loslote]

I should have more time to post toDay than I did yesterDay, but I am still posting from work, so it might be sporadic.

I noticed yesterDay that Zil's posts were cautious and non-confrontational, and that hasn't changed toDay. On top of that, he was right in the middle of the skip bandwagon, which, if there is a lion in that bandwagon (and I'd be surprised if there wasn't), that's probably the most likely place to find it.

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away, which is not what you would expect if a lion feels himself threatened. However, if Mac had died, Zil would have looked pretty good because of that vote, which makes me suspect that, if Mac is a lion, Zil is likely one of his packmates.

I don't know that it works the other way, though - that is, if Zil turns out to be a lion, I don't think we can say anything concrete about Mac. The other issue is that I don't know Mac's playing style very well. I am suspicious of him, but my suspicion comes more from the fact that a lot of little things point to him being evil than any one big tip-off. His vote yesterDay is, as I have already said, odd, but it doesn't prove anything. His posts seem a little nervous to me, but I don't know his playing style very well, so I can't put much stock in that. G55 suspected him and might have been killed for looking like a seer, but that's a loose connection and I don't know how far we can trust that. His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

All that to say, I think Zil and Mac look the most suspicious toDay, and I'll try to look into them a bit more if I have the time.

Pre-edit: I've probably xed, because this took me a while to write, so...preemptively xed since Zil's #233.