Speculation: Hobbit Oscar awards

[Tuor in Gondolin]

Just a bit of wild speculation (pre seeing anything but the promo), what Oscars might TH win? Of PJ's LotR I think FotR was the best and I would have put it second only to Chicago that year. Ian Mckellan (as Gandalf the Gray) arguably should
have got best supporting actor---so I'll say he could get one for his prequel
appearance, and the Academy does frequently do "make'up' awards, although Peter O'Toole is still waiting for his Oscar. The orgy of Oscars for RotK I think were generally unmerited, again, an Oscar make up for previous slights.

These seem possible:

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Best Adapted Screenplay---does this count for an adapted novel?

Best Cinematography-quite possible

Best Costume Design---perhaps, depends on competition

Best Director (no comment )

Best Original Song---Is Enya available?

Best Picture

Best Visual Effects---have to see how they handle Smaug, Beorn, and the
Battle of 5 Armies-although knowing PJ it will probably be over the top.
Oh, and the White Council attacking Barad-dur,presumably the
conclusion to Part I.