WWXXXV: Werewolves among the Wolf-men - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the guy who be short · 06-29-2007, 09:31 AM

"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think...

If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3%

The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8%

The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9%

Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people.

The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same.

All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity.

His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..

06-29-2007, 09:31 AM	#16
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	"Hmm. You've got me there, Rikae. Let me have a think... If we kill two people, that chance that both are wolves is (2/11)^2 = 4/121 = 3.3% The chance that one is a wolf and the other is not is 2(2/11x9/11) = 36/121 = 29.8% The chance of no wolves is (9/11)^2 = 81/121 = 66.9% Now, if we only killed one person, the chance of a wolf is 2/11 = 18%, which is far lower than the 33.1% we'd expect if we lynched two people. The maths may have been slightly off (3.2% overestimation in fact) but the results are still the same. All of this, as I've said, now being a moot point." Guy stuck his tongue out at Rikae, but she swiftly hit him with her stick and denounced his frivolity. His brain steaming from the calculation, and his leg from the staff, Guy stepped outside for a drink from the pool before returning quickly..