Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Delegate of Amon Lanc

(only if it were some sort of competition between two teams of Dol Guldur to get the favor of Sauron or something like that).

Dol Guldur = Amon Lanc.

It's difficult to find reasons why those who got killed got killed before we know who killed them (wolves, bear, something else).
Anyway I think Legate's idea about Durelin getting killed because of trying to steal a wolf's role is improbable. That's on contradiction with the narration I think. "Spied on things which she should not have seen and got hung for it." Had it been like Legate suggested, I think Sauce might have written something that had something to do with stealing, I don't know.

The idea of competing wolf teams is interesting, but were there two teams, how big our chances of winning would be? There are at least two kills a Night, but then on the other hand I guess the wolves could kill the members of the another team as well.

Menel was killed by
a) a bear or something that is not on our nor the wolves' side
b) an assassin or something that is on our side
c) a competing wolf team
but there's probably just one of those (unless we have a ranger who prevented yet one kill, but I think evil team consisting of three separate groups [or two + someone who is on our side but has a licence to kill] would be too much). I won't even try to include Durelin's death to all this, as no one supposedly knew anything of the nature of her role.

So there's one of the following:
a) a wolf team & a bear
b) a wolf team & an assassin
c) two competing wolf teams

Option a) If there's a wolf team and a bear, Menel was killed by the bear and Rune by the wolves. This doesn't sound too improbable. Rune was an easy target for the wolves, as he didn't leave much tracks. If the bear couldn't decide who to kill on Night 1, s/he could have chosen Menel if not for a better reason, his spelling. Surely people have sometimes killed for even worse reasons.
If there were wolves & the bear, I don't think the wolf team would consist of as many as four wolves - there are anyway two kills a Night. Was this true, we had two wolves to catch anymore, and the bear (or can we win even if the bear's alive?).

Option b) Menel was killed by the assassin and Rune by the wolves. Rune may have been killed for the same reason as in option a, but I doubt an assassin would have had such a bad reason to kill as spelling. Thus, the assassin should have suspected Menel already yesterDay - but s/he hasn't necessarily spoken about it at all. Concerning this:

Originally Posted by Boro

I am leaning to think that whomever disposed of Menel is on our side . . . Obviously it was someone who was highly suspicious of Menel all day, disappointed he wasn't lynched, and so decided to take care of what the village failed to do during the day.

It sounds like you're saying the one who killed Menel suspected him loudly yesterDay. I'm certain the assassin wouldn't want to attract the wolves' attention this early - unless what we call assassin is a Hunter-like role who is sure s/he knows a wolf (or rather like Rune's assassin/spy role in the last game). So yes, I agree with your idea, but just in case someone understood it wrong (like I did when I read it for the first time), I'd like to make it clear the assassin probably wasn't among those that suspected Menel the most in their posts.
Anyway, if we're having an assassin around, there are probably also four wolves and a cobbler. If not, the teams would be unbalanced.

Option c) Two competing wolf teams would be an interesting choice. But the teams couldn't probably be very big - only two wolves / team I guess (three wolves / team would make six wolves, and that's way too much). Rune was killed by the team of Menel, Menel by the other team. This would mean one team still has two wolves, while the wolf of the other team stands alone.
I guess the teams don't know each other. I can't see why they should know. But it would be really interesting to see how a Cobbler managed with two competing teams (though probably there wouldn't be one).

I'm sorry if this is a complete mess (and here's anyway something missing, as I didn't include Durelin in the whole thing). I'll try to come up with something more useful later.