TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Well Working from the votes I would guess that those three who, in fairly quick sucsession (ie: all voting in a row) put Cailin in yesterday's lead would most likely not be wolves.

Can you feel my exasperation from all the way over there, TGWBS, Shelob? I should hope so, as there's a lot of this. You guys always do this! And you know what? It always turns out badly for you. By "you guys" I don't actually mean the two of you, but I do mean that in any instance where this happens, it works out badly.

Listen to me: don't underestimate the audacity of the wolves. How much common sense would it take to absolutely secure the vision of your innocence by sacrificing one of your own? All they had to do was kill off Cailin, or show that they were trying to, and anybody on that list is golden.

And with the three-way tying rule of the first and last dead, it makes it really tough to get who you want killed anyhow, especially this early. Voting early for Cailin, who there was such a high chance of still surviving, is not as risky as you would think. I mean, look... she didn't die by our hands, she died by those of the noble Eomer (may his spirit find comfort with those of our poor departed phantom and our brave Sir Anguirel).

But my point is, wolves are willing to do anything. Here's a good rule of wrist that you should seriously keep in mind: Even though Fea's innocent, judge anything the wolves *might* do by what she'd be willing to do if she was one of them.

The first thing I'd do as a wolf was sacrifice my kin, whether with their knowledge or without it. Because people automatically assume it wouldn't happen.

Don't do that.

Expect the worst and prepare for it. How hard would you kick yourselves if I'm right in my vague suspicion of LMP (agian... )? You've immediately discount him based on faulty evidence just because of the assumption that nobody would be that audacious.

Don't do that.

The only true proof of innocence is death or Seer identification. Which, on that note, let me keep you on the up and up that I'm pretty glad I didn't mention that I thought 'Mer might have Seen something good about mormegil. Even though I was wrong, looks like the wolves may have thought the same.

I'll post more later... I've got a [tavern wenching] class to get ready for. Horrible boss of mine, you know? Making me get up to go to an 8:00 AM class on [how to properly wench a tavern].

Just... please don't underestimate? Please?