Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all: I know this is long, but please bear with it.

Now for a bit of question-raising. Although I appreciate SpM's seeming defense of me I still have to bring something up. Originally I was hung up with how I should be voting if Fordim's side was right or how I should vote if Saucepan's side is right. I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out - Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves. First I will give the condensed version of my reasoning for Sauce/phantom/SoN. I'm going to try to explain how I think they could've worked together so far/how they might in the future.

First the three wolves spotted some pretty major flaws in Fordim's plan (remember we are considering Fordim innocent for the time being) and decided that they could easily use those problems to paint him as the bad guy - they also saw that if they could draw the villagers away from Fordim's plan, there was a fairly good chance that they could catch the seer hanging around in defense of it (let's face it, protection would be attractive to a seer and this plan does offer some protection, it just came at to great a risk for me to implement with a clear conscience). Even if any villagers that the wolves tried to convince us to lynch/killed themselves were not the seer, the wolves could still end up with several innocents hung, so it would be a win-win situation well worth any risks for the trio.

First, they all acted for the plan, then Sauce & tp pulled out after 'just spotting' flaws in the plan (hoping to paint themselves as protectors of the innocent villagers?). SoM stayed behind so that they could paint a trio of wolves (Fordim, SoM, & the seer (they hoped)). When only three remained, SpM suggested this:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty

Now this does not seem like very sound logic. Were Fordim a wolf, I doubt that he would have let all three wolves be tied together so easily, & I'm not entirely sure that SpM was really sold into his own logic, I doubt that he really thought that Fordim would be so irrational. Thise could simply have been a ploy to get a great mind (Fordim) lynched along with the seer (they hoped), while they killed others during the night - and getting both Fordim and the seer would only cost them a max of one wolf. And it might be possible that after hanging two innocents (both Fordim & Evisse), they might've tried to proclaim their strategy a dud & get out of it without having to hang one of their one at all.

Anyway, when there were just three wolves left, SpM suggested that Fordim, Evisse, & SoN were most likely the werewolves, but he suggested we start the lynching with Evisse because of her 'hedging'. Now, it did seem like Evisse was being cryptic, but now we know why. Perhaps SpM reasoned that she was more likely to be the seer than Fordim was, so he proposed to start with her (he obviously wouldn't want to start with his teammate SoN). Either way, he would win, knowing that Evisse was no wolf & guessing that perhaps she was the seer.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes? SpM & tp were, however, forced to vote alike to make sure that tp did not get lynched (& decrease their numbers). Later, SpM reminded us to make sure there was no tie in the vote, innocent enough, unless he wanted to make sure that one of his counterparts didn't get lynched with Evisse. It seems likely that he was hoping for one more vote for Evisse & not two more votes for Phantom. Unfortunatley, I fell for this because I wanted to make sure that two innocents did not get hung (as I mentioned in my defense above)). Now, I also mentioned that I waited until the last second possible to vote, hoping to catch a wolf, which I never did. It is plausible, I think, that one fo teh reason why a wolf did not try to swoop in to tie the vote (a prime opportunity, though perhaps a bit risky) was because one of their own was near the noose. At any rate, SpM, tp, & SoN had already voted before this, possibly because the knew they didn't want to hold their hand & tie it at the end - they didn't want their partner gone with who they hoped was the seer.

Also:
Originally posted by Estel:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

Originally posted by SpM:

I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

I was originally suspicious of phantom's turn-around, but let my own reasoning (above) convince me not to vote for him (which took out my prime suspect, causing me to vote late when it appeared obvious who I had to vote for). SpM verified what I said heartily. Now, I know that what I posted about the phantom is most likely true, so Saucey could've been innocently agreeing with them, or he could have seen a way of using the words of an innocent merchant to protect his partner in cold-blooded murder.

Given the evidence that I have listed above (& I do apologize for it being a bit long & a bit wandering at times), I am thinking we should follow through on the theory by lynching The Saucepan Man (though I am not yet voting), who is also under suspicion from several other sources.

If Sauce is innocent, I expect people to look at me, but I do believe that he has some hand in the evil doing about, unless I can be convinced otherwise. If Sauce is a wolf, we can then lynch SoN, & finally the phantom. Should I not live until the next day, I will say that I suspect Fordim almost as much as I suspect phantom. Therefore, if the first two lynchings are successful, but phantom is innocent, I propose we go after Fordim.