Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the guy who be short]

Danger! Accusations! Fingers pointing left and right!
Squabble if you must, but resolve yourselves by night.

Fordim: The Seer's job is to guide us, as unsuspiciously as possible, in the game. I think having everybody pretend to be a Seer would simply undermine this. Also, as Firefoot says, your ideas are mathematically unsound; for example,

If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will

It is clear you meant 1 in 5, but 3 in 14 is a better chance than 1 in 5, not worse, albeit slightly.
I am opposed to the ideas because having a short list does not seem feasable to me. All three wolves could easily stay off the shortlist by voting for an innocent villager who doesn't end up getting lynched, etc. By keeping everybody votable, we know that we can end up voting for a wolf, even if they influence our decisions.

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.

Mormegil and Saucy both voiced suspicion of Kuru on the basis that he is a newcomer. I am not aiming suspicion at them here, but would like to take this moment to condemn both Xenophobia and Dwarrowphobia which appear to be rampant amongst our populance.

Sono said

The Guy Who Be Short, too, seemed jealous of Mr. Eomer's learning, always trying to show him up at town book readings and the like.

What do you mean trying to show him up? I did show him up, poor soul.
Our Holy Father Mormegil will confirm that I did come to him to ask for guidance over my feelings of jealousy, both of Eomer and of Azaelia whose vegetables seem to be much more popular than mine. With his help, and the help of Eru Iluvatar, I was able to overcome these emotions many months ago.

Finally:

Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".

I'm generally called TGWBS.