Tol-in-Gaurhoth (Isle of Werewolves)

[littlemanpoet]

With two kills per night (minimum) as long as the black beorning survives, and one lynching per day, throw in a cobbler and a cursed villager, the werewolves have a statistical advantage.

Can the Black Beorning kill a werewolf during the night? If so, that evens things out a little. If not, I predict a werewolf win in a shatteringly quick game.

Consider:

Night 1: Oddwen dies

Day 1: one lynching: 18 villagers remain: 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, 13 innocents.

Night 2: two killings; statistical likelihood of it being two innocents:
------ 16 villagers remain: 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, and 11 innocents.

Day 2: one lynching: 15 villagers.

Night 3: two killings: 14 villagers remain: probably 3 werewolves, 1 cobbler, 1 beorning, and 8 innocents.

My numbers look to be off somewhere, but you get the picture. As the number of innocents goes down, the chance of a werewolf lynching increases, but the deaths happen too fast.

What's the solution to this? 1. Make darned sure the shirriffs get to announce themselves when they want to. 2. Can the black beorning or cobbler. My opinion.