Unnumbered Tears - what if?

[Mithadan]

The Silmarillion relates that but for the treachery of man, the elves might have won the Nirnaeth Arnoediad (Battle of Unnumbered Tears). OK. So what if they won the battle (keeping in mind that a battle is not a war)? What would have happened? The West would still be fenced against them. Besides, what could they do with, or to, Morgoth?

[Taimar]

An interesting notion, Mithadan. If the Nirnaeth had instead been a glorious victory, I don`t think that it necessarily have won the war for the Eldar and Edain. Morgoth would simply have shut Angband tight and sat it out. I doubt that the victorious army would have had the strength necessary to launch a successful assault upon Angband itself. Consider the practical difficulties in besieging the place. It states in the Sil. that their armies lacked the numbers to surround Angband, so Morgoth would have able to send out sorties at will, gradually weakening the besiegers. The lands around Angland were desolate and it would have been difficult to keep a large army supplied. I think that the Eldar and Edain would have retreated and tried to keep Morgoth`s forces hemmed in as best they could. They would certainly have regained lands lost during the Dagor Bragollach, and perhaps have been in a situation akin to that which existed after the Dagor Aglareb, where Morgoth was held in check for a couple of centuries.

However, looking further ahead, there are some more things to think about. The Nirnaeth Arnoediad probably convinced even the proudest of the Noldor and Edain that they could never defeat Morgoth without aid from Valinor. Morgoth was convinced that this help would never arrive, so it led to him becoming overconfident.

Would Tuor ever have arrived in Gondolin? Highly unlikely. I think that the aftermath of the Nirnaeth Arnoediad was what JRR would have termed `eucatastrophe`, since the crushing defeat led ultimately to the marriage of Tuor and Idril, the birth of Earendil and ultimately the salvation of the peoples of Middle-earth.

[Maédhros]

I don`t think that it necessarily have won the war for the Eldar and Edain. Morgoth would simply have shut Angband tight and sat it out. I doubt that the victorious army would have had the strength necessary to launch a successful assault upon Angband itself.

I think that you're probable right, but the host of Morgoth would have been greatly reduced, since he had emptied Angband. Perhaps the elves would have ventured inside Angband and could have maybe "Captured" Morgoth.
I wonder if they would capture Morgoth, then what?

[HerenIstarion]

I believe that in the case (as well as elswhere, and even if unconsiously so), Tolkien was employing the Christian idea of humiliation as the means of reducing pride and making one capable of receivibng heaven's gifts. To put it short - without utterly shattered hope, the Eldar would not have been ready to accept help from the West (the point being, we are so good at beating Morgoth, who cares what that Mandos told us back than, ha!). The loss helped tham see that there were no other resources to rely upon but the West for them, while the victory would simply postpone the defeat

[Finwe]

I think that the Valar wanted the Noldor to humble themselves before them, before thinking of giving them aid. When Earendil set out on his voyage West, it wasn't his action itself that impressed the Valar, it was the humility behind it. Without that humility (which wouldn't have been there if the Elves had won the Nirnaeth Arnoediad), the Valar wouldn't have sent aid.

On a second note, perhaps this victory would have just put off that final flood of darkness. If this victory could have been comparable to, say, the Dagor Aglareb, then the Elves would eventually have been defeated by Morgoth anyway. This would just put off the War of Wrath.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I think Morgoth's embryonic force of winged dragons must have existed by that time. Had the Eldar and Edain won Nirnaeth, and threatened his stronghold, surely he would have released them. Considering the dismay of the Hosts of Valinor when they were released, their effect on the far smaller army of the Eldar would have been ruinous.

But enough about that.

...the Eldar might have won the day, had all their host proved faithful.

(The Silmarillion 20 - emphasis mine)

Mandos' prophecy at work. So the sentence could have meant:

The Eldar might have won the day, were they not under the doom of Mandos.

Since the doom of Mandos had taken effect when they rebelled, and left for Middle-earth, the only way they could not be under Mandos' curse was if they never rebelled and left Valinor. That means they would have won the fifth battle were they not there.

Crazy, I know. It just means victory at Nirnaeth was impossible.

You could have said that earlier.

I was trying to support my statement! Statements need supporting facts, or they'll be like legless Ents, or legless Balrogs.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

[Mandos(?): ]To evil end shall all things turn that [the House of Fëanor] begin well; and by treason of kin unto kin, and fear of treason, shall this come to pass.

(The Silmarillion 9)

...and [Maedhros, son of Fëanor] began those counsels [i.e., unite again, and make new league and common council] for the raising of the fortunes of the Eldar that are called the Union of Maedhros.

(The Silmarillion 20)

See? The battle was doomed from the beginning.