Sauron's battle strategy

Lets say Sauron had adopted a Hannibal-like battle strategy & sent plundering orcs & Trolls directly to Rivendell, Loth Lorien, Orthanc & to the Grey Havens rather than to Minas Tirith. This is in line with the Battle for Middle games to make an analogy. How would Middle Earth have changed if Sauron only attacked key targets? So long as enough soldiers stayed in Mordor to protect Sauron, it is possible that Middle Earth could have been obliviated & the Ring found even before the Company could have reached Minas Tirth.

[obloquy]

If he had had the power to do so with any hope of success, I don't see why he would have refrained. Making direct war on Rivendell and Lothlorien was completely out of reach until he recovered his Ring.

[The Might]

Well, since he was so sure that nothing could stop him (and one must admit his arrogance is well founded) he didn't want to send any small raiding groups, but to finish off all of his enemies situated in the east in one move - Dale, Lorien and Gondor. The others would then have fallen sooner or later.

The only mistake in his plan I see is letting the ways into Mordor so unguarded, and especially leaving Orodruin unguarderd; a small group of Orcs at the entrance would have been enough.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

To add something to this, Sauron's original plan was - at least according to Gandalf, but I am quite convinced he was right here - to attack Rivendell and Lórien (and maybe the Havens - they were something like a "last stand" and probably not much of a fortress; their role would be very similar to that of the havens of Brithombar&Eglarest in the First Age). The problem of course was that Minas Tirith needed to be made a target, if just because it was a "stand-alone" problem, it was the one "wordly" power to stand against Sauron. Not forgetting the fact that Sauron hated the descendants of Númenor, and we also know he was nail and teeth holding to the search for Isildur's heir, of whom he was afraid that still exists. His plans to assault Rivendell were halted by the return of the King under the Mountain, as we are told in the Appendices and also in the Unfinished Tales. My current D&D campaign is based on the idea of Sauron trying to prepare Angmar for further re-settling it with his hosts (hopefully none of my players is going to read this ), which was historically - well, maybe not proven; but largely suspected fact. I suggest to all of you who have interest in this to read "The Quest of Erebor" in the Unfinished Tales, I could quote here but technically half of the chapter is about it.

I actually believe that if Sauron was not provoked by Aragorn, or have not learned that the Ring was found, he would attack Lórien and Rivendell first. However, after he learned the Ring was found - and more, that there is Isildur's heir still living in Middle-Earth (and even more, that he has probably conquered Isengard), the logical conclusion was that the danger will come out of the remnants of Dúnedain, which meant Minas Tirith. It was necessary to strike the Men before they unite under the returned King, and before that King comes with Sauron's Ring to challenge his power (or that was at least what Sauron obviously thought).

But as I said, had none of this happened, Sauron would've, I'm convinced, focus more on Lórien and Rivendell, as Mansun suggested. Though protected by powers of the Rings, both of the Elven havens would fall in time, if exposed to concentrated attack. The main trouble with Rivendell was that it was a little "off-hand" and after the Kingdom under the Mountain was rebuilt, the campaign would've taken too much time. Though as we know even from the Appendices to LotR, even during the War of the Ring Sauron almost succeeded in inflicting terrible harm to the North. Had he had a little more time or luck, beating Dáin, Brand and Thranduil (by both the forces of the Easterlings and Dol Guldur) would've opened the passage to Eriador to the hosts of Easterlings (!) and it will be the Second Age all over again; but this time, it won't be the Númenoreans but just a few Rangers and all the Hobbits at the Stony Ford and Brandywine Bridge (wow, now that would be also a great idea for fanfic). Lórien would be crushed as well, or surrounded in a hostile world, till slowly, as a last bastion of Light, it would fade under the Orc assaults and coming of the Nazgul.

Gandalf sums up his opinions on the situation after the War of the Ring like this:

Originally Posted by The Quest of Erebor

The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his farstretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor.

[The Might]

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by The Might

I believe Tolkien also says something like if Sauron had attacked the elves first the Quest would never have been completed, since the Fellowship would have lacked the so needed support, not to mention since the Orcs were all coming their way...I just can't remember where he says that.

That's all from the Quest of Erebor. But of course, I think it's not necessary to point this out; if Rivendell and Lórien fell, it is obvious that the Fellowship would have had no chance. I think this is the part you are looking for:

Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.

Gandalf speaks about it in conclusion with the fact that the assault of the Council on Dol Guldur, though unsuccesful (for Sauron escaped to Mordor), was still important, because if left alone, Sauron would surely soon use Dol Guldur as a base of attack against Lórien.

By the way, all these things are said by Gandalf to explain the fact why he wanted to help Thorin with his quest. He was afraid of the unguarded East, and of the Dragon, so he wanted to help to re-establish the Kingdom under the Mountain when the possibility appeared.

[Selmo]

Originally Posted by Mansun

Lets say Sauron had adopted a Hannibal-like battle strategy & sent plundering orcs & Trolls directly to Rivendell, Loth Lorien, Orthanc & to the Grey Havens rather than to Minas Tirith.

Sauron did attack Lorien, the Elves of Mirkwood, the men of Dale and the Dwarves of the Lonely Mountain, with some success. Galadriel's elves were contained, Tharanduril's elves were slowly being driven northward with great losses, Dale was over-run and the Dwarves were forced to retreat underground.
All this occured at the same time as the attack on Gondor.

Sending armies against The Havens and Rivendell without subduing Gondor and Rohan was imposible. The lands between the Gap of Rohan and the North of Eriador were empty. Sauron's forces would need continuous, very large and very vulnerable supply chains to survive.

Sauron didn't attack Minas Tirith earlier because he was relying on troops from the East that took time to gather. Had he struck at other targets before he had his full strength available, Gondor could have harried his forces as they moved North, reducing their chances of success.

Had Sauron adopted Hannibal's tactics he may have achieved the same results as Hannibal. By not taking Rome when he had the chance, Hannibal, in the end, failed, despite his sucesses in other parts of the Empire.
.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Selmo

Sauron didn't attack Minas Tirith earlier because he was relying on troops from the East that took time to gather. Had he struck at other targets before he had his full strength available, Gondor could have harried his forces as they moved North, reducing their chances of success.

And let's not forget that what Sauron did was already attacking earlier than planned. All that because of the events with Saruman and the provocation of Aragorn via Palantír. I think that's pretty clear from the end of the Two Towers and the beginning of RotK.

[The Might]

But as I said...did it really matter to him what he attacked first?
No.
Because he was 100% that nobody would even think about destroying the Ring, but would rather try use it against him. So from his point of view no matter what his enemies tried, he would still have defeated them eventually.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by The Might

But as I said...did it really matter to him what he attacked first?
No.
Because he was 100% that nobody would even think about destroying the Ring, but would rather try use it against him. So from his point of view no matter what his enemies tried, he would still have defeated them eventually.

Actually, it did matter. I can't remember the exact quote, but we know he was still able to feel fear. He feared that, if given enough time, Isildur's heir would be able to learn how to wield the Ring appropiately, and summon a host large enough to make things very hard for Sauron. Not to mention that if someone such as Saruman would have gotten the Ring, things would've looked rather bleak for Sauron.

Therefore, it did matter who he attacked first. He believed Aragorn to have The Ring. First of all, I'm sure he feared that the heir of Isildur might be able to overthrow him, like Isildur did in the past. Second, he knew that while Aragorn had it, it was the "lesser evil" of the other possibilities. If Saruman or Gandalf had laid their hands on it, he would've been in trouble.

That's why Aragorn's looking into the Palantir is such a crucial moment in the books. IF he had not done so, Sauron might've kept his forces in reserve for a longer time and Frodo would have been found. Furthermore, if Aragorn had not tried attacking the Black Gate, the hosts that were camped across the plains before Mt. Doom would've never moved and once again, Frodo would have been caught.

[Imperica]

Originally Posted by Farael

He feared that, if given enough time, Isildur's heir would be able to learn how to wield the Ring appropiately, and summon a host large enough to make things very hard for Sauron.

Therefore, it did matter who he attacked first. He believed Aragorn to have The Ring. First of all, I'm sure he feared that the heir of Isildur might be able to overthrow him, like Isildur did in the past. Second, he knew that while Aragorn had it, it was the "lesser evil" of the other possibilities.

When did Sauron believe that Aragorn had The Ring? If this was so then the Nazgul wouldn't of been searching for Baggins, the Shire, and Hobbits... And I highly doubt that Sauron thought that a mere Man such as Aragorn, despite his lineage, would be able to appropriately wield The Ring and even if this was so The Ring would of betrayed him, as it did Isildur.

[Nazgûl-king]

Sauron probably would have if he could; I think he was waiting to get the ring before going after some of the stronger areas held by those opposed to him in Middle-earth. Though he did go after Lorien, Mirkwood, and Dale/Lonely Mountain, at the same time as his attack on Gondor, and in a certain sense he also went after Rohan (through Saruman).

I agree with Selmo, that had Sauron adopted Hannibal's tactics, he probably would have met with the same results.