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Why did the wolf choose G55 last Night?
Pitch or Shasta
There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.
Me
There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.
Of particular note yesterDay:
- Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.
- Pitch went through all of the candidates. He decided I was probably innocent based on my vote patterns, chalking up the wording he found suspicious to newbieness.
This means that, potentially, the Pitchwolf/Shastawolf could have thought there's a good chance of (a) persuading the innocent Pitch/Shasta, or (b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.
However, realistically, they would have had much less of a chance to pull that off if G55, who did not suspect me seriously, was around.
If it's Shasta, the move of getting rid of G55 has worked perfectly. If it's Pitch, I'm not so sure.
YesterDay, Pitch suspected Eomer-innocent and Shasta. For him to suddenly switch to me as his target to the extent of voting for me, he should surely have some reasoning for this. Therefore, if I examine his reasoning carefully, I should have a chance of determining whether he's an innocent who has been struck by paranoia and a Shastawolf's plan, or a Pitchwolf who either got scared after seeing in my first post this Day that I hadn't totally ruled him out, or more likely had decided to pretend to change his opinion over the course of the Day to capitalise on Shasta's possible suspicion of me yesterDay. Not sure how Sally would fit into that.
So...let's look at what would have happened toDay if Sally had been the one killed, compared to what really happened.
Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).
If we have a Shastawolf, the situation is very bad for him, because there's still a possibility that G55 will vote for him, even if she didn't suspect him so much yesterDay. At the very best for him, it would be a tie with 50-50 odds.
If it's a Pitchwolf, the situation is slightly better, but still not great. The worst situation for him is a tie. But G55 was suspicious of him, and she might have been able to persuade me of that too.
Neither of those situations is particularly good for the wolf. I'm inclined to think that a Shasta-wolf has the most to gain statistically from killing G55 and shaking the village up. Hmm. I've still got less info out of this analysis than I'd hoped. Now, onto an overall analysis of Shasta and Pitch.
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